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Zack Wheeler Thread

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59 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

No win situation.

He does well and some will still be annoyed with him...more than likely he would still underperform casual fans’ expectations based on the comps to 2013-14 and what looked the time to be a star in the making.

From that original 9.4/4.7 average fWAR, he’s put up an 8.4 over 5 seasons, for an average of 1.7 (which also includes a third outlier season of 2.9)

Worst case scenario and he’s in that 1.5ish range.   Fwiw, the two projection systems at FG have him at 1.9 and 2.1.

Realistically, the main reason for the team is the marketing angle...the posters of Robert, Puig, Moncada, Grandal and Abreu...competing for eyeballs with the new Cubs’ network (especially if they overcharge and there’s a backlash).

Strictly a one year deal with an option based on incentives or a favorable club option for 2021 to protect against Sox prospect failure at a still reasonable rate of $10-14 million with 2020 being the low year.

I think Ozuna and probably Castellanos are off the table at this point.

He’s only going to be 29 and the media still follows him.  Heck, put him 6th/7th in the batting order...no pressure or expectation, and he might flourish with all the attention on Moncada, Eloy, Grandal, Madrigal and Robert.   That’s not even mentioning TA and Abreu.

Worst case scenario is he divides the clubhouse and has to be dumped...best case is a 3ish fWAR and we make the playoffs with a suddenly scary offense with almost no weaknesses from top to bottom.  Or (most optimistically) Mickey Adolfo is ready to replace him.

And the cost is half (at most) of which they just gifted Abreu.

 

I think you're seeing marketing angles where none exist. How will the Sox market Puig ? Hey Sox fans watch this dude ignore coaches telling him where to position himself in the OF , watch him ignite bench clearing brawls that could result in someone more important getting hurt, watch him continuously overthrow cutoff men with his rocket arm , look on in amazement as he licks his bat and best of all listen to him talk and say things like "The last couple years, I didn't work hard because I still have a contract to go," Puig said in February, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. "Now I think I'll work hard more than any year in my life." (because he was going to be a free agent.)

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2822390-yasiel-puig-says-he-didnt-work-hard-in-the-past-due-to-being-under-contract

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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24 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Hell no.

How is he any different then Eovaldi? You want to go a bit higher fine but I don't see the logic in offering someone with his injury history a 5 year deal. Personally if we are not going to sign a front line starter I'd rather get some SP via the trade market.

At what cost?    Out all fan bases we should be well aware of the cost for good starting pitching (Sale and Quintana). 

Enough with the trades.   Pay the money, operate like a legit ML franchise. 

 

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1 hour ago, wrathofhahn said:

Hell no.

How is he any different then Eovaldi? You want to go a bit higher fine but I don't see the logic in offering someone with his injury history a 5 year deal. Personally if we are not going to sign a front line starter I'd rather get some SP via the trade market.

They’re not even comparable in terms of overall two year trend lines (Eovaldi’s 2017-18 vs Wheeler’s 2018-19).

Eeovaldi blew up largely due to his post season success and velocity.

Fwiw, the rates of a second Tommy John revision after the first are somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-10%.  Boras Corp would tell you the average time between major injuries is 4.5 years, which would make the likes of Strasburg (his client) seem like the better choice over Wheeler, but Wheeler has considerably fewer high-stress career innings pitched on his elbow, especially compared to Strasburg and Bumgarner.

That leaves you with the Ryu injury guessing game, Keuchel or Hamels.

Or maybe a trade for the likes of a Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Gray or other similarly once-hyped in the last 2-3 years of arbitration underperforming what their peripherals would argue they should actually be doing.

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2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

Hell no.

How is he any different then Eovaldi? You want to go a bit higher fine but I don't see the logic in offering someone with his injury history a 5 year deal. Personally if we are not going to sign a front line starter I'd rather get some SP via the trade market.

Wait, what? Are you serious?

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9132&position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10310&position=P

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2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think you're seeing marketing angles where none exist. How will the Sox market Puig ? Hey Sox fans watch this dude ignore coaches telling him where to position himself in the OF , watch him ignite bench clearing brawls that could result in someone more important getting hurt, watch him continuously overthrow cutoff men with his rocket arm , look on in amazement as he licks his bat and best of all listen to him talk and say things like "The last couple years, I didn't work hard because I still have a contract to go," Puig said in February, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. "Now I think I'll work hard more than any year in my life." (because he was going to be a free agent.)

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2822390-yasiel-puig-says-he-didnt-work-hard-in-the-past-due-to-being-under-contract

The predictable spin will be that Renteria, Abreu and Grandal will reign him in successfully, in a way the Dodgers, Reds and Indians were completely unable to do.  

And that “clubhouse management/respect” is what makes Abreu’s contract a virtual bargain regardless of the fWAR output, along with playing a pivotal role in the recruiting of Machado (well, he tried), Robert and Grandal, etc.

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The predictable spin will be that Renteria, Abreu and Grandal will reign him in successfully, in a way the Dodgers, Reds and Indians were completely unable to do.  

And that “clubhouse management/respect” is what makes Abreu’s contract a virtual bargain regardless of the fWAR output, along with playing a pivotal role in the recruiting of Machado (well, he tried), Robert and Grandal, etc.

OMG, stop with the storylines, Puig isn’t happening no matter how badly you want it to.

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41 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

OMG, stop with the storylines, Puig isn’t happening no matter how badly you want it to.

Which player is most likely right now for RF...if there was a betting pool?

Edited by caulfield12

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5 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The predictable spin will be that Renteria, Abreu and Grandal will reign him in successfully, in a way the Dodgers, Reds and Indians were completely unable to do.  

And that “clubhouse management/respect” is what makes Abreu’s contract a virtual bargain regardless of the fWAR output, along with playing a pivotal role in the recruiting of Machado (well, he tried), Robert and Grandal, etc.

I know. I've seen that spin here in arguments for Puig. He is who he is . It's like someone marrying a criminal and expecting the love to change him. It doesn't work that way. Change comes from within. If people want to pretend his countrymen will have some kind personality altering miracle affect on a lazy, egotistical, glory hound who takes his own talent for granted they are delusional.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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Wheeler has had one freakin injury, it’s not like he’s been out 12 times.  Dude has been a great pitcher outside the TJ surgery.  Still in his prime, it’s not hard to see why people want this dude.  If we’re not going to be in on cole this is the dude to get.

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43 minutes ago, Rowand44 said:

Wheeler has had one freakin injury, it’s not like he’s been out 12 times.  Dude has been a great pitcher outside the TJ surgery.  Still in his prime, it’s not hard to see why people want this dude.  If we’re not going to be in on cole this is the dude to get.

And... you keep him away from the Twins.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Which player is most likely right now for RF...if there was a betting pool?

I think they will probably trade for one unless they can convince themselves Castellanos can be serviceable in RF.

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1 hour ago, Rowand44 said:

Wheeler has had one freakin injury, it’s not like he’s been out 12 times.  Dude has been a great pitcher outside the TJ surgery.  Still in his prime, it’s not hard to see why people want this dude.  If we’re not going to be in on cole this is the dude to get.

100% agree.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think they will probably trade for one unless they can convince themselves Castellanos can be serviceable in RF.

Yeah, I think the three most likely players are Castellanos, Calhoun, and Peralta.

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Just now, HOFHurt35 said:

At what cost?    Out all fan bases we should be well aware of the cost for good starting pitching (Sale and Quintana). 

Enough with the trades.   Pay the money, operate like a legit ML franchise. 

 

Wheeler is likely to be overpaid and maybe get six years due to numerous bidders. Still wishing for a JDM deal. 

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1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

Yeah, I think the three most likely players are Castellanos, Calhoun, and Peralta.

I think they’re aiming higher than Calhoun.  I know he had a solid 2019, but the fall-off potential with him is massive.  Peralta would be a better stop-gap option if that’s the path they go down, but I honestly think they’ll be looking for someone controllable.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think they will probably trade for one unless they can convince themselves Castellanos can be serviceable in RF.

You now have to convince yourself that an Eloy and Castellanos OF is not only serviceable for 2020, but also 21 and 22. I don’t think he’s an option with Abreu locked up. 

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4 minutes ago, pcq said:

Wheeler is likely to be overpaid and maybe get six years due to numerous bidders. Still wishing for a JDM deal. 

I seriously doubt Wheeler gets six years.

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5 minutes ago, pcq said:

Wheeler is likely to be overpaid and maybe get six years due to numerous bidders. Still wishing for a JDM deal. 

JDM deal would be a disaster if he doesn’t opt out after 2020. For same reasons as Castellanos, even moreso, with Abreu locked up, he just doesn’t make any sense unless the Sox want to trade Vaughn which I doubt happens.

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

You now have to convince yourself that an Eloy and Castellanos OF is not only serviceable for 2020, but also 21 and 22. I don’t think he’s an option with Abreu locked up. 

I agree that it becomes much less of a realistic option.  At least before if you thought his defense might be improving you had DH as a fall-back spot.  Now that’s not really an option until year 4 of any deal.

The other critical factor here is that RF is our last spot to fill in the lineup for the foreseeable future.  If further balance is needed, whether that be an actual LH hitter or a RH who can hit RHP, that’s our last spot to do so.  And Castellanos hasn’t been that great against RHP in his career and so even offensively he may not be the best fit.

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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Which player is most likely right now for RF...if there was a betting pool?

I'd say Kalhoun personally, if they don't want to deal anything of value. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

JDM deal would be a disaster if he doesn’t opt out after 2020. For same reasons as Castellanos, even moreso, with Abreu locked up, he just doesn’t make any sense unless the Sox want to trade Vaughn which I doubt happens.

Maybe Lopez Collins and one good youngster. I don't do rentals. You want room for a prospect it sounds like. JDM would want a new deal. 

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4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Which player is most likely right now for RF...if there was a betting pool?

I would probably guess Kalhoun

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11 minutes ago, pcq said:

Maybe Lopez Collins and one good youngster. I don't do rentals. You want room for a prospect it sounds like. JDM would want a new deal. 

Huh? JD has 3 years remaining, with an opt out next year. Yes I want to leave room for Vaughn. No I don’t want to trade for JDM. It makes no sense. 

No idea what you’re suggesting with Lopez, Collins and “a good youngster”. Hopefully not a trade return for JDM because that would be awful. 

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Probably something like Calhoun, Castellanos (odds just went down considerably), Gardner, Polanco/Marte, Haniger, Nimmo, Peralta, Puig, Avi...

Ozuna for RF is a huge long shot now, at best.

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6 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I would probably guess Kalhoun

I think Kole Calhoun is the safest bet FA. With Grandal now in hand, I just really hope we do better offensively than Calhoun without totaling punting defense. Honestly just think we need to hope that RF gets filled via trade. Plenty of plausible options - both 1 year stop gaps and longer term options. Have to imagine that is how Hahn plans to solve RF. 

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