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caulfield12

J.A. Happ

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Pro's

White Sox would get money back for taking his contract, which is $17 million for 2020

His 2.9 and 3.0 fWAR was followed up by just 1.3 in 2019, so getting him into AL Central and out of East...potential rebound candidate

Limited contract, expires in 2020

Gives veteran stability to the back end of the rotation, LH-edness without overpaying Keuchel/Ryu

Northwestern grad, local ties

Durable, not a fireballer...variation on young rotation guys in terms of stuff

Gets another $17 million contract with 2021 with 165 IP and 27 starts if he overachieves or bounces back to 2017/18 levels of performance (Yankees would have to agree to kick in $5-6 million?)

Wouldn't cost any major prospects...

 

Con's

Age, 37

The fact that this could be an irreversible decline at the end of his career after being productive through age 37

The fact that saving the Yankees money on Happ means they can reinvest it into Severino/Paxton/Tanaka (the latter two are free agents at the end of this season)

Would have to get some money back from the Yankees to offset his salary...based on subpar 2019 performance...how willing would the Yankees actually be to do this? 

In general, bailing out the Yankees on this deal could make them a stronger competitor for the Sox down the line (of course, just getting to the playoffs would be a major accomplishment for Sox, too early to think about W.S. or the Yankees being stronger)

Still far more preferable than gambling on David Price's health over a 3 year contract

 

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I mentioned Happ in another thread just a little bit ago. How can he not be preferable to David Price in a salary dump? Way less risk both salary wise and term wise. 

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8 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Happ sucks.  Would rather have Price

If the Yankees just gave him to us for salary relief...that would be a lot better than assuming a ton of risk with Price in the middle of our contention window.

IF IF IF he can get back to being a 3 fWAR pitcher in a much weaker division, that's a HUGE win for the White Sox...and allows us to compete in 2020 if everything goes right instead of mortgaging their future by trading away Vaughn, Madrigal or even Collins.

Happ has 7.2 fWAR the last 3 years, for an average of 2.4 fWAR.

David Price has 6.2 fWAR the last 3 years, for an average of 2.1 fWAR.

So we're only talking about 3 years of difference in age, and Happ being a much more durable pitcher at this point in his career who doesn't rely purely on his stuff to keep teams in games.

Edited by caulfield12

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5 minutes ago, MeanJoeCrede said:

I mentioned Happ in another thread just a little bit ago. How can he not be preferable to David Price in a salary dump? Way less risk both salary wise and term wise. 

Some are just enamored with the brand-name and remembrance of 2008 peak David Price with a high 90's fastball and devastating slider.  That version no longer exists.

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I’d rather have Price but I think there are even some flier starting pitcher options I would rather sign than trade for Happ.

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We have 3 SP, so that means he will surely trigger his vesting option and he was really bad last year and he's really old.  

King Felix come on down.

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31 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I’d rather have Price but I think there are even some flier starting pitcher options I would rather sign than trade for Happ.

tumblr_n2x5iyjNh41qece2io3_400.gif

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We know the price (no pun intended) for pitchers nearing free agency from the Corey Kluber deal:

Delino DeShields (White Sox equivalent, Adam Engel or Leury Garcia)

Emmanuel Clase (White Sox equivalent Zack Burdi)

That's for a pitcher, Kluber, who's turning 34 next year. (I know, Cleveland would have demanded more from the White Sox as a premium for dealing within the division. But that's the basic price. That should be about the price for David Price, if Boston picks up a significant part of the salary. Because he is entering his age 37 season, Happ should cost significantly less. That Boston is asking for Madrigal and Vaughan for Price and Benintendi makes me think that any Price deal is DOA. Happ is an innings eater who would provide some value next year. But there are still some valuable pitchers who could be had via trade: Matt Boyd, Tigers; Robbie Ray, D-backs; Blake Snell, Rays; these are the pitchers I hope that the White Sox are looking to acquire.

It's possible that the Yankees could include a couple of prospects if we paid the Kluber price for J.A. Happ — I could see the Yankees having some interest in a versatile player like Leury Garcia. If we were able to flip the prospects we might get from a Yankees trade with Dane Dunning or Jonathan Stiever, we might be able to get one of the better pitchers available in trade.

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2 hours ago, BigFinn said:

We know the price (no pun intended) for pitchers nearing free agency from the Corey Kluber deal:

Delino DeShields (White Sox equivalent, Adam Engel or Leury Garcia)

Emmanuel Clase (White Sox equivalent Zack Burdi)

That's for a pitcher, Kluber, who's turning 34 next year. (I know, Cleveland would have demanded more from the White Sox as a premium for dealing within the division. But that's the basic price. That should be about the price for David Price, if Boston picks up a significant part of the salary. Because he is entering his age 37 season, Happ should cost significantly less. That Boston is asking for Madrigal and Vaughan for Price and Benintendi makes me think that any Price deal is DOA. Happ is an innings eater who would provide some value next year. But there are still some valuable pitchers who could be had via trade: Matt Boyd, Tigers; Robbie Ray, D-backs; Blake Snell, Rays; these are the pitchers I hope that the White Sox are looking to acquire.

It's possible that the Yankees could include a couple of prospects if we paid the Kluber price for J.A. Happ — I could see the Yankees having some interest in a versatile player like Leury Garcia. If we were able to flip the prospects we might get from a Yankees trade with Dane Dunning or Jonathan Stiever, we might be able to get one of the better pitchers available in trade.

I like to eat, eat, eat apples and bah-nay-nays.

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The great thing about Happ is he wouldn’t cost any talent and the Yankees would probably send over $3-5 million to make it more palatable.  It wouldn’t impact ant aspect of the 2021-23 contention windows unless he pitched well (165 IP and 27+ starts.)

Clevinger and Snell are pipe dreams.  Price requires the Red Sox to eat almost $50 million to make it a sound bet for the White a Sox.  That’s a non-starter for them.

Happ was really a decent pitcher in 2018 and 2017, right in the vicinity of 3 fWAR.   He consistently gives you innings and is durable and takes the ball every fifth day.   If they go back to non SuperBalls, he becomes even more valuable as he does surrender quite a few fly balls.   He’s definitely not a black hole in the rotation like we had in the revolving 5th spot last year.


https://www.pinstripealley.com/2019/10/23/20927761/yankees-2019-recap-ja-happ-least-valuable-player-pitching

The Yankees got more than they bargained for when they acquired J.A. Happ in July 2018. The front office brought in the southpaw to stabilize the rotation, and he repaid them by delivering an ace-like performance down the stretch. Happ made nine regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2018, pitching to a 157 ERA+ in the process. That success made the club comfortable with handing Happ a two-year contract worth $34 million, plus a third-year vesting option to max the deal out at $51 million, in December—even if we had reservations. 

Happ didn’t need to pitch like a frontline starter to help the Yankees. He just had to live up to his reputation as a steady, reliable contributor towards the back of the rotation. If he went on a run like he did in the summer of 2018, the Yankees would gladly take it. Instead, he turned in 90 ERA+ clunker of a season.

.....

To his credit, Happ bounced back to deliver a strong September. He made five appearances, four starts, and pitched to a 1.65 ERA (3.10 FIP) on the month. The southpaw made the Yankees’ postseason roster, but pitched out of the bullpen in three appearances. Happ surrendered a walk-off home run to Carlos Correa in Game Two of the ALCS, but tossed two scoreless frames in Game Six. At least he finished the year on a somewhat positive note.

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Happ has a vesting option for 2021 based on games started (27) or innings pitched (165).  While you could probably manage around it, I’m not overly interested given the year he just had and the fact he’s 37.

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Then it's Wood, Walker, Teheran, McHugh, Felix, Harvey or Bailey. 

If the Yankees send at least $4~5 million, and nothing goes back in terms of prospects, it make about as much sense as anything else out there.   I guess only the GMs know which baseballs will be used next year.  Same exact ones, Happ is less attractive as a fly ball pitcher. 

They have no choice but to engage with Boras on Keuchel or Ryu...

Edited by caulfield12

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This off-season has become a debacle. We're debating over which of the bad choices is the better choice to make.

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I’m actually with caulfield here. Happ seems more likely than Price to me and has the same logic. 
 

Not personally a fan, but I’d also say he has more likelihood of producing next year than most of the garbage on the FA market.

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54 minutes ago, Sarava said:

This off-season has become a debacle. We're debating over which of the bad choices is the better choice to make.

Plus we are competing for those said arms, as other teams need pitching too

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I wouldn't mind Happ. Try and get Frazier with him, that would fill two holes

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3 minutes ago, striker said:

I wouldn't mind Happ. Try and get Frazier with him, that would fill two holes

Frazier is not very good.  He's awful defensively and his bat is not good enough to compensate.

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2 hours ago, Sarava said:

This off-season has become a debacle. We're debating over which of the bad choices is the better choice to make.

I didn't want nor expected Wheeler, MadBum, Cole, or Strasburg at their price, but it stings not to find affordable competency like Hamels or Miley

1 hour ago, striker said:

I wouldn't mind Happ. Try and get Frazier with him, that would fill two holes

Deals in which prospects are dealt along with a salary casualty are rare and I don't see NYY doing that

19 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Do the Yankees have any interesting pitching prospects? If the Sox could get one of those for taking on Happ, it might not be a bad idea at this point.

See above...trading for Happ only makes sense if we're trading another 12 year old for him like the Nova deal

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I have been saying for weeks that I would love Happ as our 2nd added starter. If we get him the Yankees will either eat money or attach a valuable prospect with him. His contract isn't cheap but we HAVE the money and he would be valuable to us for this year. He is also a Lefty which we don't have (not counting Rodon). Price's injury history just scares me too much to trust him this year. 

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5 minutes ago, Irishsox15 said:

I have been saying for weeks that I would love Happ as our 2nd added starter. If we get him the Yankees will either eat money or attach a valuable prospect with him. His contract isn't cheap but we HAVE the money and he would be valuable to us for this year. He is also a Lefty which we don't have (not counting Rodon). Price's injury history just scares me too much to trust him this year. 

Not sure about the valuable prospect part...probably just have to settle for a $3-4 million kickback.

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5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Not sure about the valuable prospect part...probably just have to settle for a $3-4 million kickback.

Yeah his contract isn't scary enough to warrant adding another chip. 

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7 hours ago, hi8is said:

I like to eat, eat, eat apples and bah-nay-nays.

That is actually "ay-pples and bah-nay-nays"

  • Haha 1

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