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Castellanos to Reds , rumored 4/64M

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Castellanos can be (and I'm willing to bet) every bit the late bloomer as JD was. He ain't nearly as good of a player, but he still can be a monster with the bat.

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I can see the interest if Castellanos’ price and years have come down and the Sox can get him at reasonable terms. Right now, the Sox have to depend on Moncada, and Anderson to repeat their career years. Realistically, those two and Abreu are likely to regress. Grandal is a big bat and reliable. While the talent is there, in Eloy, Robert, Madrigal, getting another reliable bat in Castellanos lessens the pressure on the young guys to perform. 

I did like his positive attitude on the Cubs-he was like a little kid enjoying himself and giving it his all. Not a bad role model for the young guys. 

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5 minutes ago, Sarava said:

Alright let's clear one thing up. I don't think anyone is saying he is as good of a hitter as JD. he's not. It was that there's potential similarities of 2 guys that left Detroit, and possibility went on to bigger and better things.

Second - your math is off. Castellanos had a lot more at-bats in Detroit than Chicago. Almost twice as many - yet he still hit more HR's than in Detroit. In Detroit he hit one HR every 36.6 at-bats. In Chicago he hit one HR every 13.25 at bats. That's almost trippling his rate in Detroit.

And finally - as I said, he doesn't at this point (probably ever) have the power that JD has. But he hits a shit-ton iof doubles, which would be amazing in our lineup.

 

That just makes it worse! JD hit more homers in 200 AB than NC did in 400 AB! In the same ballpark WITHOUT the juiced ball!

I'm not saying NC can't hit or that he wouldn't improve the lineup at all -- I'm saying that lots of people on this board are suggesting he's some kind of transcendent hitter that should be added despite the fact that he doesn't fit anywhere on the current 25 man at all, and that's just not true. YOU are the one that compared him to JD. He's not even close to what JD was when he was in Detroit or even now, in his mid-30's in Boston.

Do you mean he reminds you of JD in Houston, before his swing change? When he was a sub-replacement level opposite field line drive hitter? I don't think that ifts either, but maybe you think Castellanos needs a swing change? I guess that could work -- but do you really think we should take a year of development away from Collins and possibly block Vaughn to spend $15-20M on a guy who we think might break out if he makes a swing change? 

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just incredulous at how many people on the board are treating this guy like a superstar.

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11 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Castellanos can be (and I'm willing to bet) every bit the late bloomer as JD was. He ain't nearly as good of a player, but he still can be a monster with the bat.

Why? What makes you think that of Castellanos, as opposed to every other player in the league?

How many guys in the last 20 years or so have made the kind of leap that JD Martinez made at the end of their 20s? I can think of one: Jose Bautista. And both of those guys were oversized, fringey, slap-hitting utility players that made swing changes to turn into highly disciplined, uppercut pull monsters. That doesn't describe Castellanos at all.

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22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The problem is we're probably looking at peak Castellanos...and paying a premium price, when we can't be sure if will settle in at somewhere between Cubs' Castellanos and Billy Butler at his peak.  

Perhaps it's just human nature to be at least a little skeptical of players that hit their peak the year before getting a huge payday in free agency.

That outcome (Butler-esque, but at least able to play in the outfield) is still much more likely than him becoming another JD Martinez.

Right -- it makes no sense to look at ANY player and suggest that he is likely to end up like a historic outlier like JD Martinez. 

Guys like Martinez are the exception, not the rule. It COULD happen, but you COULD also win the lottery tomorrow.

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46 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

That just makes it worse! JD hit more homers in 200 AB than NC did in 400 AB! In the same ballpark WITHOUT the juiced ball!

I'm not saying NC can't hit or that he wouldn't improve the lineup at all -- I'm saying that lots of people on this board are suggesting he's some kind of transcendent hitter that should be added despite the fact that he doesn't fit anywhere on the current 25 man at all, and that's just not true. YOU are the one that compared him to JD. He's not even close to what JD was when he was in Detroit or even now, in his mid-30's in Boston.

Do you mean he reminds you of JD in Houston, before his swing change? When he was a sub-replacement level opposite field line drive hitter? I don't think that ifts either, but maybe you think Castellanos needs a swing change? I guess that could work -- but do you really think we should take a year of development away from Collins and possibly block Vaughn to spend $15-20M on a guy who we think might break out if he makes a swing change? 

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just incredulous at how many people on the board are treating this guy like a superstar.

I don’t know about superstar, I do think he will be a top 50 hitter in the game easily. I don’t think Collins will ever be close to that nor do I particularly care. And $15 million? Really? That’s quite clearly fine.
 

And nobody ever gets blocked. What happens  if Vaughn has an offensive year the likes of Eloy or Robert had? We just trade NC. The return won’t even matter.

Now what happens if Vaughn doesn’t? Are we worse for having NC at up DH another year?

I believe in NCs bat. He’s not JD - but he is available and likely at a price much lower than I expected in November.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

That just makes it worse! JD hit more homers in 200 AB than NC did in 400 AB! In the same ballpark WITHOUT the juiced ball!

I'm not saying NC can't hit or that he wouldn't improve the lineup at all -- I'm saying that lots of people on this board are suggesting he's some kind of transcendent hitter that should be added despite the fact that he doesn't fit anywhere on the current 25 man at all, and that's just not true. YOU are the one that compared him to JD. He's not even close to what JD was when he was in Detroit or even now, in his mid-30's in Boston.

Do you mean he reminds you of JD in Houston, before his swing change? When he was a sub-replacement level opposite field line drive hitter? I don't think that ifts either, but maybe you think Castellanos needs a swing change? I guess that could work -- but do you really think we should take a year of development away from Collins and possibly block Vaughn to spend $15-20M on a guy who we think might break out if he makes a swing change? 

I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just incredulous at how many people on the board are treating this guy like a superstar.

LOL. Ok, when you have to say you're not trying to be a dick, that means you know you're being a dick. With that said...

I keep telling you we're not saying he is or will be as good as JD, but you keep skipping right past that. I don't know if there's reading comprehension issues at play here or if you need to conveniently miss that point to make your argument.

Nick doesn't have the power of JD. He does hit a shitload of doubles, though. His hitting has improved quite a bit in the last 2 years. Especially last year. He shows the sign of a guy on a serious upward trajectory.

Again, Nick isn't as good of a player as JD.  That doesn't invalidate the point that he could be a guy that is undersold from playing in the dungeon of Detroit. He could be a late-ish bloomer, much like a guy named JD Martinez. Nick did have the 10th most doubles of all-time last year. That's pretty good. Some of us don't live and die on just home runs.  A doubles machine in the Sox lineup would be amazing. He would probably be a great #2 hitter in the lineup.

ps - Nick isn't as good as JD.

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17 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Right -- it makes no sense to look at ANY player and suggest that he is likely to end up like a historic outlier like JD Martinez. 

Guys like Martinez are the exception, not the rule. It COULD happen, but you COULD also win the lottery tomorrow.

And you COULD stop being pessimistic on every optimistic view, signing, and idea

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9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don’t know about superstar, I do think he will be a top 50 hitter in the game easily. I don’t think Collins will ever be close to that nor do I particularly care. And $15 million? Really? That’s quite clearly fine.
 

And nobody ever gets blocked. What happens  if Vaughn has an offensive year the likes of Eloy or Robert had? We just trade AC. The return won’t even matter.

Now what happens if Vaughn doesn’t? Are we worse for having AC at up DH another year?

I believe in ACs bat. He’s not JD - but he is available and likely at a price much lower than I expected in November.

 

 

You keep saying AC. Do you mean NC?

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21 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

You keep saying AC. Do you mean NC?

Yes

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2 hours ago, Sarava said:

LOL. Ok, when you have to say you're not trying to be a dick, that means you know you're being a dick. With that said...

Alright, asshole...

2 hours ago, Sarava said:

I keep telling you we're not saying he is or will be as good as JD, but you keep skipping right past that. I don't know if there's reading comprehension issues at play here or if you need to conveniently miss that point to make your argument.

 

5 hours ago, Sarava said:

I feel this way a bit as well. In fact I was thinking exactly of JD Martinez.

So what is it? Is he like JD Martinez or not? Is my "reading comprehension" a problem, or did you just say two completely opposite things?

If he isn't as good, why did YOU say that he reminded you of JD? If it's about doubles instead of homers, why did YOU compare them using ONLY HOMERS?

The only reason I said "not trying to be a dick" is because you argued using numbers that made SO little sense, I was afraid you'd be embarrassed when I pointed it out. 

Edited by Eminor3rd

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1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

And you COULD stop being pessimistic on every optimistic view, signing, and idea

You mean, stop being objective? 

I got shit on for years for defending the front office during the rebuild. Now that they've stopped making sense, I've argued the other way.

I'm going to root for the team to do things that makes sense, period. I'm not gonna "be positive" or "be negative" just for the hell of it. 

Edited by Eminor3rd
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1 hour ago, soxfan49 said:

And you COULD stop being pessimistic on every optimistic view, signing, and idea

There’s a large gap between being pessimistic and not thinking Nick Castellanos is JD Martinez

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2 hours ago, Sarava said:

LOL. Ok, when you have to say you're not trying to be a dick, that means you know you're being a dick. With that said...

I keep telling you we're not saying he is or will be as good as JD, but you keep skipping right past that. I don't know if there's reading comprehension issues at play here or if you need to conveniently miss that point to make your argument.

Nick doesn't have the power of JD. He does hit a shitload of doubles, though. His hitting has improved quite a bit in the last 2 years. Especially last year. He shows the sign of a guy on a serious upward trajectory.

Again, Nick isn't as good of a player as JD.  That doesn't invalidate the point that he could be a guy that is undersold from playing in the dungeon of Detroit. He could be a late-ish bloomer, much like a guy named JD Martinez. Nick did have the 10th most doubles of all-time last year. That's pretty good. Some of us don't live and die on just home runs.  A doubles machine in the Sox lineup would be amazing. He would probably be a great #2 hitter in the lineup.

ps - Nick isn't as good as JD.

So what your saying is Nick Castellanos > JD Martinez

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2 hours ago, bmags said:

I don’t know about superstar, I do think he will be a top 50 hitter in the game easily. I don’t think Collins will ever be close to that nor do I particularly care. And $15 million? Really? That’s quite clearly fine.
 

And nobody ever gets blocked. What happens  if Vaughn has an offensive year the likes of Eloy or Robert had? We just trade NC. The return won’t even matter.

Now what happens if Vaughn doesn’t? Are we worse for having NC at up DH another year?

I believe in NCs bat. He’s not JD - but he is available and likely at a price much lower than I expected in November.

 

 

I think that works in OOTP, but realistically, and ESPECIALLY with this front office, if they go get a guy, that means they're going to give that guy the job. And the major problem is that I can't even remember the last time the White Sox developed a guy that made a relatively seamless transition to the MLB from the minors -- all their guys have to struggle and either failed or eventually figured it out at the MLB level. Is that a drafting issue, or a player development issue? Maybe it's just more common than I think it is because I don't watch other teams as closely as I do the White Sox -- but regardless, the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level. With a highly paid incumbent, I don't know how that ever happens unless the incumbent is so bad that he doesn't even deserve playing time.

I acknowledge that NC is almost certainly  better hitter than Collins in 2020, and probably a better hitter than Vaughn in 2021. But when you have multiple holes to fill and a "limited" budget to fill it, and when your player dev/drafting is mediocre enough that you only hit on your top talents, I feel like you need to spend your money filling the holes instead of trying to get a 1 or 2 win improvement on guys you already have.

These moves reek of desperation. The White Sox went into this offseason with literally $15.333M committed to 2020. No-brainer arbitration bumped that to $37M, and Abreu bumped it up a bit more. We're being asked as fans, to be okay with Gio Gonzalez (Steamer projects 1.1 fWAR for 2020) and Dallas Keuchel (Steamer projects 2.4 fWAR for 2020) as the answer to our pitching problem. When 5 and 6 win pitchers were available and were bought by franchises that were up against the luxury tax! We traded a prospect for Nomar Mazara (Steamer projects 1.5 fWAR) with better options (including NC!) available in FA, and now we're going to pay a 2-3 win DH to block Zack Collins. These are inefficient, back-against-the-wall, win-now moves, and this is exactly the strategy that got the White Sox in enough deep shit to require a rebuild in the first place.

I don't hate these players, I just want the franchise to start acting like a successful franchise. To do the things that everyone can see the elite franchises do. ESPECIALLY because we've all had to put up with bullshit the past three years in order to give them that chance.

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40 minutes ago, mqr said:

There’s a large gap between being pessimistic and not thinking Nick Castellanos is JD Martinez

You must've missed the Mazara and Keuchel threads...

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20 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I think that works in OOTP, but realistically, and ESPECIALLY with this front office, if they go get a guy, that means they're going to give that guy the job. And the major problem is that I can't even remember the last time the White Sox developed a guy that made a relatively seamless transition to the MLB from the minors -- all their guys have to struggle and either failed or eventually figured it out at the MLB level. Is that a drafting issue, or a player development issue? Maybe it's just more common than I think it is because I don't watch other teams as closely as I do the White Sox -- but regardless, the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level. With a highly paid incumbent, I don't know how that ever happens unless the incumbent is so bad that he doesn't even deserve playing time.

I acknowledge that NC is almost certainly  better hitter than Collins in 2020, and probably a better hitter than Vaughn in 2021. But when you have multiple holes to fill and a "limited" budget to fill it, and when your player dev/drafting is mediocre enough that you only hit on your top talents, I feel like you need to spend your money filling the holes instead of trying to get a 1 or 2 win improvement on guys you already have.

These moves reek of desperation. The White Sox went into this offseason with literally $15.333M committed to 2020. No-brainer arbitration bumped that to $37M, and Abreu bumped it up a bit more. We're being asked as fans, to be okay with Gio Gonzalez (Steamer projects 1.1 fWAR for 2020) and Dallas Keuchel (Steamer projects 2.4 fWAR for 2020) as the answer to our pitching problem. When 5 and 6 win pitchers were available and were bought by franchises that were up against the luxury tax! We traded a prospect for Nomar Mazara (Steamer projects 1.5 fWAR) with better options (including NC!) available in FA, and now we're going to pay a 2-3 win DH to block Zack Collins. These are inefficient, back-against-the-wall, win-now moves, and this is exactly the strategy that got the White Sox in enough deep shit to require a rebuild in the first place.

I don't hate these players, I just want the franchise to start acting like a successful franchise. To do the things that everyone can see the elite franchises do. ESPECIALLY because we've all had to put up with bullshit the past three years in order to give them that chance.

But isn't Nick Castellanos just a better version of Melky Cabrera from 5 years ago...certainly not an "elite" hitter?  And even more troubling, you're giving away so much defensively with both him and Jimenez in the same outfield.

At least we're not Twins' fans?  Wouldn't that be even more infuriating, they've seemingly given up making more than incremental improvements as they've lost 17 consecutive playoff games and fans don't believe they can ever get past the Yankees or the Astros.

Other than Harper, Machado, Strasburg, Cole and Rendon...there weren't these types of players on the market the last two off-seasons.

Would we be better off today with either Harper or Machado?   Maybe that means Robert, Moncada or Giolito can't be retained.  There's always a tradeoff.  Opportunity cost.

 

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15 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level.

No they don't.  The Sox don't owe him anything.  The Sox already gave Collins 5 years in the Minors to prove something. He  not only proved he could not hit, but in the process he continued to raise questions about his defense.  The Sox then started giving him some starts at first base, in case he started figuring things out at the plate.

I don't get why a few posters here keep kissing his @ass.  If you really want to see Zack get a chance in the majors then hope that he gets traded to a team that can use him as a back-up catcher.   The Sox roster will be too important in 2020 to give up a spot for a 3rd  string catcher, back-up DH and bench warmer.

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2 hours ago, bmags said:

I don’t know about superstar, I do think he will be a top 50 hitter in the game easily. I don’t think Collins will ever be close to that nor do I particularly care. And $15 million? Really? That’s quite clearly fine.
 

And nobody ever gets blocked. What happens  if Vaughn has an offensive year the likes of Eloy or Robert had? We just trade NC. The return won’t even matter.

Now what happens if Vaughn doesn’t? Are we worse for having NC at up DH another year?

I believe in NCs bat. He’s not JD - but he is available and likely at a price much lower than I expected in November.

 

 

this should be pinned.

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4 minutes ago, tray said:

No they don't.  The Sox don't owe him anything.  The Sox already gave Collins 5 years in the Minors to prove something. He  not only proved he could not hit, but in the process he continued to raise questions about his defense.  The Sox then started giving him some starts at first base, in case he started figuring things out at the plate.

I don't get why a few posters here keep kissing his @ass.  If you really want to see Zack get a chance in the majors then hope that he gets traded to a team that can use him as a back-up catcher.   The Sox roster will be too important in 2020 to give up a spot for a 3rd  string catcher, back-up DH and bench warmer.

The guy put up SUBSTANTIALLY above average offensive numbers at literally EVERY stop in the minors: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/stats?position=C/DH

What are you seeing that suggests Collins has "proved he cannot hit" in the minors?

Edited by Eminor3rd
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5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

this should be pinned.

Generally speaking, you're right. But I think the exception to this is when the player needs to see MLB pitching to develop further.

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14 minutes ago, tray said:

Zack hit .232 and .235 at A and AA ball. He walked a lot though so good OPS but that may not get him anything but strike outs looking in the majors.   And, " the longstanding questions about Zack Collins’ defense behind the plate aren’t any closer to being answered. "

Trade him for a relief pitcher so Zack gets his chance somewhere else.

And he hit .282/.403/.951 at Charlotte, so your point is now moot 

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