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caulfield12

COVID-19/Coronavirus thread

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12 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

What is the incentive for American pharmaceutical companies to innovate...if they're just going to give the results away without any patent protection and then lose almost ALL of the profits to cheaper manufacturing countries like India, China, etc?  

What do you tell Pfizer and Moderna and J&J shareholders, that American exceptionalism exists, but we are just going to give up any advantages we have for the "good of the world" when nobody else is doing the same thing other than China?   Let's not forget the debacle brewing with AstroZeneca shipments even leaving the UK at this time...every country in the EU is pretty much at each other's necks, with the northern countries like Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Germany once again pitted against Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal, etc., in a re-run of 2008-2010.

If China does do this (start copying the US vaccines), it would be a huge political loss of face, because they've already spent so much time and money/resources promoting their five homegrown vaccines through "vaccine diplomacy" to the rest of the world.  Just don't see it happening at this point.

Nevertheless, there are only roughly 40 democracies standing in their (China's) way at this point.

Plus, China has a SURPLUS of homegrown vaccines right now, it's just that the majority of the general population doesn't quite trust them at this point.   We're only at 3% roughly of the entire population vaccinated.  By the time that happens, variants and booster shots will be the buzzword, as it will be late 2022 to reach 70% of the population.

 

Philosophically, the faster the world reaches herd immunity (and not just individual countries), the better off everyone will be...but there are certainly philosophical differences about how to achieve that.  But the vaccine coalition (Novavax or whatever it's called) for the 2nd and 3rd world is woefully underfunded, and there's only so much the WHO can do on its own.

The US Government literally guaranteed purchases to these companies as part of operation warp speed after giving them money for the tests. This isn't a complaint btw - that was, for once under the last administration, exactly the correct strategy - give them a guaranteed profit margin, so even the companies that had vaccine candidates that fail made money. But hey u know what that means - they already have a guaranteed profit on these things. Every single license they sell is extra money for them at this point. 

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2 hours ago, StrangeSox said:

It'll be hard to manufacture and especially distribute the mRNA vaccines in a lot of countries. Hopefully J&J can be more widely manufacturered since it's so much easier to distribute even to places without electricity.

I'm not going to be able to find the report, but there are definitely vaccine manufacturers in India and Southeast Asia that are sitting there with spare capacity that could be used to produce COVID-19 vaccines that have yet to get access to whatever it is they need to manufacture them. If that hack helps get around that - I will not feel bad at all.

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On 3/29/2021 at 11:00 AM, bmags said:

FWIW, I think this is also a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I had to go to the mass site, because when I signed up, that was the only place my group was allowed. They expanded my group to local pharmacies only a couple days before my appointment, so it wasn't worth spending the time to try to find another appointment with mine days away.

But today, my wife became eligible. She got herself an appointment at the mass site first - on May 1. Then she tried local pharmacies, got one in town on Saturday, and could have gotten one 30 minutes away tomorrow but picked the weekend slot. If the mass sites are being used for people who can't get in otherwise, or who can't drive there or whatever - great, but certainly not worth waiting a month for when the pharmacies have shots today.

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Finance and Legal are now both eligible in Illinois under 1C, so I'm good to go... hopefully all your tips will help me get an appointment ASAP!!

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Just curious, anyone who has had to get a test done recently, have they been asking if you have already been vaccinated? Seems like valuable, important data to be collecting. 

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4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I'm not going to be able to find the report, but there are definitely vaccine manufacturers in India and Southeast Asia that are sitting there with spare capacity that could be used to produce COVID-19 vaccines that have yet to get access to whatever it is they need to manufacture them. If that hack helps get around that - I will not feel bad at all.

Sure, but mRNA is a brand-new technology to figure out and build out. I would have to imagine that they'd have an easier time building the more traditional adenovirus-based vaccines like J&J.

I'm 100% behind all "intellectual property" for these vaccines and treatments being public domain globally. Jonas Salk is the model we should be following.

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2 hours ago, mqr said:

Just curious, anyone who has had to get a test done recently, have they been asking if you have already been vaccinated? Seems like valuable, important data to be collecting. 

I am being tested weekly still and they have not asked that as part of the testing process. However, the employer is setting up a "show us your card so you won't need to quarantine if you travel out of state or get exposed to someone" system that I will take advantage of next week.

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

 

The Papua New Guinea situation is very dire, and risks spilling over into AUS and NZ.

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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Papua New Guinea situation is very dire, and risks spilling over into AUS and NZ.

This is literally across the world from the example cited there.

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34 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

This is literally across the world from the example cited there.

Not really...many Australians/New Zealanders are connected to South America.

Lots of Colombians marry and live in Australia or study at university there.  There are a number of trade relationships as well between those areas...

There's also the Galapagos Islands (Ecuador), the point is that the world is so interconnected now (despite massive oceans between them) that it's almost impossible to imagine all these hot zones like Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Chile flaring up and not somehow affecting the rest of the world at some point.

When this whole thing started, there were a number of scientists worrying about the health care infrastructure in Africa/India/poorer Asian countries not holding up...and, other than South Africa and a few outbreaks, they've really done quite well.  For now.

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The CDC stated yesterday that data shows vaccinated people do not carry the virus, which means that only do the vaccines prevent symptoms, they seem to prevent infection at all.  This is huge and even more important as restrictions are being relaxed and people are caring less and less.

The magic herd immunity number to 70% - 80% should be reached by early summer.  Let's hope vaccination rates can stay ahead of the dumbass rate and prevent another wave.  Because that's what it's going to take.  People aren't going to go back.

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43 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

The CDC stated yesterday that data shows vaccinated people do not carry the virus, which means that only do the vaccines prevent symptoms, they seem to prevent infection at all.  This is huge and even more important as restrictions are being relaxed and people are caring less and less.

The magic herd immunity number to 70% - 80% should be reached by early summer.  Let's hope vaccination rates can stay ahead of the dumbass rate and prevent another wave.  Because that's what it's going to take.  People aren't going to go back.

Not without those under 18 excluded, Republican male, anti-vaxxers and religious conservatives, etc.....it’s going to be much closer to 60-65%.

And some are positing herd immunity sits at roughly 75-85%.

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That number has also been shrinking, so it seems there is a good amount of posturing to own the libs.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Not without those under 18 excluded, Republican male, anti-vaxxers and religious conservatives, etc.....it’s going to be much closer to 60-65%.

And some are positing herd immunity sits at roughly 75-85%.

US is approved for 16+ as is UK already. 12-16 isn't far behind, but I'm sure the rest is very accurate and insightful.

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Posted (edited)

16+ only for Pfizer fwiw. Moderna and J&J ran their trials 18+.

 

People still need to be treating this seriously even if they're vaccinated, imo

 

Edited by StrangeSox

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IL 7-day average now at 110k/day, about 10% from 10 days ago. Hoping we get some bigger jumps soon as J&J comes online + more eligibility. 

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First shot done. Gotta schedule the second one for sometime in April.

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My wife had one dose of the Moderna vaccine, and has had nerve pain in her feet and spreading up to her knees for 2 weeks. Her white blood cell count went from 1,100 to 15,000. They think she is having an autoimmune response to the vaccine. They cancelled her second dose.

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On 3/29/2021 at 11:32 PM, caulfield12 said:

What is the incentive for American pharmaceutical companies to innovate...if they're just going to give the results away without any patent protection and then lose almost ALL of the profits to cheaper manufacturing countries like India, China, etc?  

What do you tell Pfizer and Moderna and J&J shareholders, that American exceptionalism exists, but we are just going to give up any advantages we have for the "good of the world" when nobody else is doing the same thing other than China?   Let's not forget the debacle brewing with AstroZeneca shipments even leaving the UK at this time...every country in the EU is pretty much at each other's necks, with the northern countries like Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Germany once again pitted against Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal, etc., in a re-run of 2008-2010.

If China does do this (start copying the US vaccines), it would be a huge political loss of face, because they've already spent so much time and money/resources promoting their five homegrown vaccines through "vaccine diplomacy" to the rest of the world.  Just don't see it happening at this point.

Nevertheless, there are only roughly 40 democracies standing in their (China's) way at this point.

Plus, China has a SURPLUS of homegrown vaccines right now, it's just that the majority of the general population doesn't quite trust them at this point.   We're only at 3% roughly of the entire population vaccinated.  By the time that happens, variants and booster shots will be the buzzword, as it will be late 2022 to reach 70% of the population.

 

Philosophically, the faster the world reaches herd immunity (and not just individual countries), the better off everyone will be...but there are certainly philosophical differences about how to achieve that.  But the vaccine coalition (Novavax or whatever it's called) for the 2nd and 3rd world is woefully underfunded, and there's only so much the WHO can do on its own.

....right....

Yea, so anyway, I hope as many people in this WORLD have access to the vaccine and we can stop deaths and spread of the virus WORLD WIDE. I can't imagine giving a flying fuck about the precious shareholders of Johnson and Johnson over millions of innocent lives across the world. Color me, not giving a fuck about a "political loss of face" during a world wide pandemic when lives can be saved.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

My wife had one dose of the Moderna vaccine, and has had nerve pain in her feet and spreading up to her knees for 2 weeks. Her white blood cell count went from 1,100 to 15,000. They think she is having an autoimmune response to the vaccine. They cancelled her second dose.

Jeeze I'm sorry to hear that. I hope it clears up soon, sucks that she'll be in limbo with a second round through the summer but I know UK was doing mix-and-match trials with different vaccines.

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

My wife had one dose of the Moderna vaccine, and has had nerve pain in her feet and spreading up to her knees for 2 weeks. Her white blood cell count went from 1,100 to 15,000. They think she is having an autoimmune response to the vaccine. They cancelled her second dose.

Sending thoughts and prayers to the two of you. Hope she starts feeling better soon. 

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