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Jose Abreu

Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

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10 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

So in Trevor Bauer's latest vlog, he says he is speaking to fellow MLB players about their thoughts about the league and how they can make the game better. But all the players he spoke to were either ex-teammates, Adam Cimber, Jared Hughes (Mets), or Lucas Giolito. I'm sure some interesting things were shared on that last call

So basically he’s signing with the White Sox?

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

So basically he’s signing with the White Sox?

this is the machado glove thing all over again. NOPE. not falling for anything anymore. 

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Bauer is pretty witty. I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw the speculation from Joel Sherman and threw Giolito in there to make it appear like the Sox are in on him. Squeez some extra dollars out of the Mets etc

Edited by Orlando

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9 minutes ago, Vulture said:

Truth is there is no telling what the Sox might do. Did anyone actually foresee the Grandal signing? No point getting upset over speculàtion

Yes? He was (and still is) literally the perfect match for the Sox.    

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35 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

So in Trevor Bauer's latest vlog, he says he is speaking to fellow MLB players about their thoughts about the league and how they can make the game better. But all the players he spoke to were either ex-teammates, Adam Cimber, Jared Hughes (Mets), or Lucas Giolito. I'm sure some interesting things were shared on that last call

Good stuff....his videos are awesome. Now his agent’s on the other hand....brutal 

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5 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

What kind of deal do you guys think Bauer ultimately gets?

It depends on what he's looking for? 

If he's looking for a long-term deal, I think 5/140-150, and that's only because of the Pandemic. In a normal offseason, he'd be looking at 6/180 or 7/210. 

If he'd be willing to do a 3 year deal, I think he'd get around 105M. 

If he's looking for a 1 year deal, I think he wants to beat Cole's AAV and He'd get a 38M 1 year deal. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

What kind of deal do you guys think Bauer ultimately gets?

Going to guess like a 3/105 so he can get another bite on the apple.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Going to guess like a 3/105 so he can get another bite on the apple.

There's literally no reason for the Sox not to do that. Their position group is still cheap and he comes off when they get expensive. 

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I don't think he gets into Cole range based on 11 starts exclusively against relatively weak central division opponents.

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1 minute ago, Vulture said:

I don't think he gets into Cole range based on 11 starts exclusively against relatively weak central division opponents.

Bauer is like Snell. When he's having his good seasons, he's a Cy Young candidate but he has seasons where his ERA jumps over 4 as well. 

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2 minutes ago, Vulture said:

I don't think he gets into Cole range based on 11 starts exclusively against relatively weak central division opponents.

In 2018 he had a 2.21 ERA and has had over 200 strikeouts for 3 years straight.175 IP for 4 years straight. Also nobody said he'd make over 300 million or even 200 million.

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10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Bauer is like Snell. When he's having his good seasons, he's a Cy Young candidate but he has seasons where his ERA jumps over 4 as well. 

Yep.  He has also sucked in the playoffs (but SSS).  I hope the Sox sign him because I believe he's the only solid top to mid-rotation guy available as a free-agent, which is the only way we should be acquiring much-needed pitching right now.  But I think some of the love for him is overblown, frankly.  I don't think he's a top-5 guy, or that he deserves to be paid like one.  He's also a douche.  Ahhh, I'm so tortured!

Edited by 35thstreetswarm

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8 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

Yep.  He has also sucked in the playoffs (but SSS).  I hope the Sox sign him because I believe he's the only solid top to mid-rotation guy available as a free-agent, which is the only way we should be acquiring much-needed pitching right now.  But I think some of the love for him is overblown, frankly.  I don't think he's a top-5 guy, or that he deserves to be paid like one.

I mean honestly, Darvish has a better track record than either Bauer or Snell. Something to ponder. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I mean honestly, Darvish has a better track record than either Bauer or Snell. Something to ponder. 

If we MUST trade for pitching, which would be disappointing, I would wish for some package for Darvish that wouldn't include Kopech or Vaughn.

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4 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

If we MUST trade for pitching, which would be disappointing, I would wish for some package for Darvish that wouldn't include Kopech or Vaughn.

Add Crochet to that list, and yeah. 

Darvish to the Sox makes just as much sense for both teams as Quintana to the Cubs did. 

The difference is the dollars on the deal and Darvish's age, which should bring the price down. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yu-darvish/13074/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-snell/13543/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Of his 11 starts, eight were against bottom six offenses in baseball: two were against the worst offense in baseball(PIT), six were against bottom six offenses(3 vs MIL, 2 vs DET, KC), two we're against a bottom ten offense(cubs). Only one game against an average or better offense(Sox), in which he did pitch well, but still gave up two home runs to take the loss. 35 mil a year puts him in Cole/Verlander/Kershaw, etc territory, but he doesn't have the track record to match.

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17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Add Crochet to that list, and yeah. 

Darvish to the Sox makes just as much sense for both teams as Quintana to the Cubs did. 

The difference is the dollars on the deal and Darvish's age, which should bring the price down. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yu-darvish/13074/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/blake-snell/13543/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trevor-bauer/12703/stats?position=P

I agree...just don't get screwed as the Cubs did.😊

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37 minutes ago, bmags said:

In 2018 he had a 2.21 ERA and has had over 200 strikeouts for 3 years straight.175 IP for 4 years straight.

253 strikeouts doesn't do you much good when you allow 101 free passes(82 BB, 19 HBP) and 34 home runs, resulting in 118 runs allowed, as happened in 2019. If you go by his entire track record, he should be getting Keuchel money. Obviously he'll get more than that since his dominant eleven start stretch against one of the worst collections of offenses a pitcher could possibly face, but itd be kind of foolosih to put him into the stratosphere of top salaries.

Edited by Vulture

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Just now, Vulture said:

253 strikeouts doesn't do you much good when you allow 101 free passes(82 BB, 19 HBP) and 34 home runs, resulting in 118 runs allowed, as happened in 2019.

It seems you have just heard of trevor bauer this year and are trying to lecture other people about him.

 

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9 minutes ago, bmags said:

It seems you have just heard of trevor bauer this year and are trying to lecture other people about him.

 

I don't see how my comment was any different than the one I responded to. You cited stats to support he is worth 35 mil, I cited stats to support he is not. Except my argument is more reasonable since he is clearly not comparable to players making 35 million a year. If you search my history for Quintana you will find a post where I show how Quintana also started a season with an eleven game stretch comparable to Bauer's, but in his case, 73% of his starts were not against bottom six offenses or 91% against bottom ten. Did that suddenly make Quintana among the top paid players in baseball? No, despite the fact Quintana's performance prior to those eleven starts was superior, it did not.

Edited by Vulture

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1 minute ago, Vulture said:

I don't see how my comment was any different than the one I responded to. You cited stats to support he is worth 35 mil, I cited stats to support he is not. Except my argument is more reasonable since he is clearly not comparable to players making 35 million a year.

The AAVs were proposed were what he may sign for a shorter year commitment. If Gerrit Cole was a free agent this year and said he'd only sign a 1 or 2 year deal, he'd make more than his 36 million.

The point which everyone else followed was that he views himself as a top 5 pitcher, so you may be able to avoid a long-term commitment if you hit an AAV that puts him there. If you are going 6 years, nobody is saying he'd be getting a greinke deal.

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1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

It depends on what he's looking for? 

If he's looking for a long-term deal, I think 5/140-150, and that's only because of the Pandemic. In a normal offseason, he'd be looking at 6/180 or 7/210. 

If he'd be willing to do a 3 year deal, I think he'd get around 105M. 

If he's looking for a 1 year deal, I think he wants to beat Cole's AAV and He'd get a 38M 1 year deal. 

I was thinking around 5-6 years/$150-180m. No idea how close or far that is.

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