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Dodgers sign Bauer (3/102, opt-outs, 40-45-17)

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3 minutes ago, manbearpuig said:

I was thinking around 5-6 years/$150-180m. No idea how close or far that is.

The more I dive into this, the more I think he's more in the $25-26M range over a 4-6 year deal. So anywhere from 4/100 to 6/156. 

If he wanted to do a 3 year deal I think he could get like 93M on a deal like that. Higher AAV but lower years. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

The more I dive into this, the more I think he's more in the $24-26M range over a 5-6 year deal. So anywhere from 4/96 to 6/156. 

Yeah and it doesn't seem like he has much of a market. And that's not far off from what they offered Wheeler.

Edited by manbearpuig

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

The AAVs were proposed were what he may sign for a shorter year commitment. If Gerrit Cole was a free agent this year and said he'd only sign a 1 or 2 year deal, he'd make more than his 36 million.

The point which everyone else followed was that he views himself as a top 5 pitcher, so you may be able to avoid a long-term commitment if you hit an AAV that puts him there. If you are going 6 years, nobody is saying he'd be getting a greinke deal.

Well you might be right there, but the question remains is it worth committing close to 25% of payroll to such a player even if it is only three years? Imagine a 2019 performance at 35 mil a year. He'd practically need a security team to travel to the park

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1 minute ago, manbearpuig said:

Yeah and it doesn't seem like he has much of a market. And that's not far off from what they offered Wheeler.

Bauer has a better track record of health than Wheeler did, but Wheeler had a better track record of performance. 

I'd offer him the rumored Wheeler deal(5/125) and see if he bites.

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The more I dive into this, the more I think he's more in the $25-26M range over a 4-6 year deal. So anywhere from 4/100 to 6/156. 

If he wanted to do a 3 year deal I think he could get like 93M on a deal like that. Higher AAV but lower years. 

He’s getting 30 a year easily 

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4 minutes ago, fathom said:

He’s getting 30 a year easily 

There's a lot of arguments not to do that, namely the QOC during an 11 game stretch this year and the fact that he's only had 1 full season in his career with an ERA under 4.00. 

If he's getting 30 per year I understand the FO staying away. 

I did not realize how average he'd been prior to 2018. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Vulture said:

Well you might be right there, but the question remains is it worth committing close to 25% of payroll to such a player even if it is only three years? Imagine a 2019 performance at 35 mil a year. He'd practically need a security team to travel to the park

This is a white sox specific view. But his 2019 was still very productive, its a top 30 pitcher due to the innings he's provided.

The benefit to the white sox is their salaries are going to grow with their young players, so a short term deal would take a lot of the % of our salaries, but then we aren't paying an underperforming guy in 4 years when we need to re-sign a tim anderson. 

If it's a short term deal, I don't think sox would even struggle to trade him at 2019 value if it isn't working out.

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9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The more I dive into this, the more I think he's more in the $25-26M range over a 4-6 year deal. So anywhere from 4/100 to 6/156. 

If he wanted to do a 3 year deal I think he could get like 93M on a deal like that. Higher AAV but lower years. 

$25 M per year for 5 years is starting to look like the number.  Much better than trading the future IMO.

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1 minute ago, poppysox said:

$25 M per year for 5 years is starting to look like the number.  Much better than trading the future IMO.

Keep dreaming

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3 minutes ago, fathom said:

Keep dreaming

If you're correct, then I completely understand the FO staying away. In that case, it sucks. 

3 years ago, Yu Darvish got 6/126 in a non-pandemic financial climate and he had been a much better pitcher over the course of his career than Bauer. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you're correct, then I completely understand the FO staying away. In that case, it sucks. 

3 years ago, Yu Darvish got 6/126 in a non-pandemic climate and he had been a much better pitcher over the course of his career than Bauer. 

Yu was coming off the disastrous World Series and had questions about his health due to TJS and Japanese workload. 

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9 minutes ago, fathom said:

Yu was coming off the disastrous World Series and had questions about his health due to TJS and Japanese workload. 

That doesn't change the fact that Bauer doesn't have anywhere close to the track record of even Darvish, let alone other 30M pitchers. 

Bauer had one dominant full season and 11 dominant starts against bad competition. That's worth 30 million dollars? In this financial climate? C'mon Fathom, you're better than that. 

I think Bauer might look at the long term offers and go for the 1 year deal. Then all bets are off. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

That doesn't change the fact that Bauer doesn't have anywhere close to the track record of other 30M pitchers. 

Bauer had one dominant full season and 11 dominant starts against bad competition. That's worth 30 million dollars? In this financial climate? C'mon Fathom, you're better than that. 

You don’t pay for past performance, you pay for expected production.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You don’t pay for past performance, you pay for expected production.

That's how it's supposed to work, but that's not how it actually works. 

And I look at Bauer and while the stuff is great, am I getting the 2012-2017, and 2019 guy, or am I getting the 2018 and 2020 guy? 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You don’t pay for past performance, you pay for expected production.

People are weary of the expected production because of past performance...

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

That's how it's supposed to work, but that's not how it actually works. 

And I look at Bauer and while the stuff is great, am I getting the 2012-2017, and 2019 guy, or am I getting the 2018 and 2020 guy? 

What do you mean that’s not how it works?

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How much do you want to bet Bauer doesn't take a 1 year deal? 

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What do you mean that’s not how it works?

Human nature/psychology says that the best predictor of future performance is past performance. It's hard to get that out of people's heads, despite it not working that way in sports. Everyone knows that in sports you get paid in FA based on your track record and that it's likely to be a negative surplus value. 

The truth is that nobody knows which Bauer they're getting. It's completely up in the air. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Just now, yesterday333 said:

People are weary of the expected production because of past performance...

Sure, some people are adjusting their go-forward projections due to past performance, but there will be at least couple teams who feel he’s a 5 to 6 win pitcher over next handful years and that will ultimately set his marker above $30M/year.

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Just now, Baron said:

How much do you want to bet Bauer doesn't take a 1 year deal? 

Of course not. I would guess something like 4/136 with the Mets or Angels

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Just now, fathom said:

Of course not. I would guess something like 4/136 with the Mets or Angels

I think it may be longer than 4 years but anyway. There's no way in hell he takes a 1 year deal. 

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1 minute ago, fathom said:

Of course not. I would guess something like 4/136 with the Mets or Angels

I don't think he gets anywhere close to that AAV . Maybe on a 6 year deal he gets $136M. 

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Human nature says that the best predictor of future performance is past performance. It's hard to get that out of people's heads. 

The truth is that nobody knows which Bauer they're getting. It's completely up in the air. 

That’s not how valuation works and baseball is managed by a bunch of Ivy Leaguers and legit data scientists who know how to forecast appropriately.

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think he gets anywhere close to that AAV . Maybe on a 6 year deal he gets $136M. 

You are so off here it’s not even funny.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s not how valuation works and baseball is managed by a bunch of Ivy Leaguers and legit data scientists who know how to forecast appropriately.

Especially someone like Bauer that is always trying to reinvent himself and showed significant improvement last year.

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