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Sox acquire Lance Lynn for Dane Dunning and Avery Weems

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Lol the most epic collapse to not win a league maybe in fantasy history. Biggest lead and meltdown I've ever seen. It was painful

I thought you had in the bag man and somehow @ChiSox59 pulled a double upset to win it all!

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1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

Exactly.  And what the hell team is going to let some dude pitch 6 seasons of 1-2 WAR

I said 2.5 on average. 

This is getting ridiculous. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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One good long term piece that comes from this is the likelihood of Kopech being traded has diminished dramatically. 

I would expect maybe a 2-year extension on top of his current deal because as much as JR does not like to spend they are very good at getting players to sign extensions.

I hate trading away prospects. The one thing with Dunning is he really never had a true out pitch. When struck guys out in the big leagues last year it seemed with the fastball which to me is never a great sign unless it's a really good one. Dunning will never have that so he still needs to develop whatever that out pitch will be. That's a big if he can do that. Saying that I would have loved this trade if Lynn came with years already on his contract. 

Additionally, I hate this trade because I want Bauer. But I don't see how you make this deal without thinking you are out of that race. 

Maybe their offseason is Lynn plus 2 of ( Pederson, Cruz, Schwarber). I still have doubts that Vaughn will be ready next year to play in the big leagues especially before June. 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

10 WAR is very conservative, as long as he sticks in MLB. It could be much worse. 

No, it's not very conservative. Dunning expected career WAR is probably around 6-8.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 minute ago, kwill said:

One good long term piece that comes from this is the likelihood of Kopech being traded has diminished dramatically. 

I would expect maybe a 2-year extension on top of his current deal because as much as JR does not like to spend they are very good at getting players to sign extensions.

I hate trading away prospects. The one thing with Dunning is he really never had a true out pitch. When struck guys out in the big leagues last year it seemed with the fastball which to me is never a great sign unless it's a really good one. Dunning will never have that so he still needs to develop whatever that out pitch will be. That's a big if he can do that. Saying that I would have loved this trade if Lynn came with years already on his contract. 

Additionally, I hate this trade because I want Bauer. But I don't see how you make this deal without thinking you are out of that race. 

Maybe their offseason is Lynn plus 2 of ( Pederson, Cruz, Schwarber). I still have doubts that Vaughn will be ready next year to play in the big leagues especially before June. 

His slider was pretty nasty dude. 

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5 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Lopez has 10x the stuff Dunning has and has back to back 180+IP seasons.  

I seriously beg to differ.

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No, it's not very conservative. Dunning expected career WAR is probably around 6-8.

Again, think about how bad Lopez has been, and realize he has a career WAR of 6.4. 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I said 2.5 on average. 

This is getting ridiculous. 

How can you talk about 2.5 WAR like it’s some kind of layup?

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6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

10 WAR is very conservative, as long as he sticks in MLB. It could be much worse. 

My point is Dunning is likely at best going to be like a 1.5 to 2.5 win player for 2 or 3 years. Maybe he gets better. Maybe he doesn’t. Point is Sox believe there are better chances in their system to be better than that and want value now because they don’t have time to wait around for everyone. 
 

Also consider, that by the time he is pushing 180 innings constintently, if he gets there at all, he will also be pushing 30

Edited by mqr
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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Again, think about how bad Lopez has been, and realize he has a career WAR of 6.4. 

Jack, I dont think you understand. Lopez was allowed to accumulate that number because his team wasn't trying and didn't care how bad he had been. Lopez was the worst or second worst qualified starter in baseball over that time period. Hes not an example of a typical 6 fWAR player.

Lopez would not accumulate that number for any decent team.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

he has a career WAR of 6.4. 

You sure about that?

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1 minute ago, hi8is said:

I seriously beg to differ.

In fairness I’m still picturing Reylo popping 97-98 when we got him not whatever the hell he got Cooped into lately.  That stuff smokes Dunning’s control stuff in theory. 

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I dont use baseball reference war for pitchers. I use it for position players and I use fWAR for pitchers as its more predictive. I've made that pretty clear nearly every time I've cited the stat.

In the 5 years prior he had a 10.8 fWAar not 5.5.

Well that an indictment of fangrapshs then. WAR is supposed to measure actual performance, not prediction of future performance.

For example fangraphs has Loaiza down for 2.0 WAR in a season baseball reference had him at 0.1. Loiaza put up 5.71 era, 80 ERA+ in 152 IP. Meanwhile it has Lynn at 1.2 WAR compared to 3.2 from bref for a season he threw 186 innings at 3.43 ERA, a 123 ERA+. Sorry, there is no way Loaiza had a better season there when he was far below league average compared to Lynn, who was well above league average. 80 ERA+ at barely 5 ip per start is in fact replacement level production, as 0.1 indicates. And easily worth at least 3 less wins compared to Lynn's season in actual results.

Edited by Vulture
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We can quibble all we want about whether Lance Lynn is proper value for dunning. ( I tend to think it’s pretty fair, anything more, your probably using him as a sweetener for a more attractive trade partner) 

but now was the time to move dunning. 

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7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Again, think about how bad Lopez has been, and realize he has a career WAR of 6.4. 

Lopez has a bWAR of 3.2 and fWAR of 5.3

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My favorite part about this thread is that there are good takes on both sides, but then you have "lol lance lynn is fat lol" and "Dane Dernando Dunning will win the Cy Young".

My big concern is that this is an all-in, win now move and I don't trust Jerry to open up the wallet for right field or the #4 and #5 spot in the rotation to make the Sox the clear favorites.

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I do wonder if White Sox fans no matter what would balk at trading any young players for anybody at this point. Like everything would be an overpay.

Dunning is the 98th best prospect according to mlb.com and Avery Weems is probably not in the top 250 for a potential top 10 starter in the AL. If this was for another team seeing this trade happen would you really think that is an overpay. 

The problem is everybody wants the ripoff trade for their club. There has to be an upside for both sides to make it. 

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1 minute ago, Quin said:

My favorite part about this thread is that there are good takes on both sides, but then you have "lol lance lynn is fat lol" and "Dane Dernando Dunning will win the Cy Young".

My big concern is that this is an all-in, win now move and I don't trust Jerry to open up the wallet for right field or the #4 and #5 spot in the rotation to make the Sox the clear favorites.

This would be my concern as well. Now is the time to put your nuts on the table and get that final piece to put you over the top. Lets go get Springer or Bauer- make this team a World Series favorite. 

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Just now, kwill said:

This would be my concern as well. Now is the time to put your nuts on the table and get that final piece to put you over the top. Lets go get Springer or Bauer- make this team a World Series favorite. 

What about a finish of Joc, Q, Hendriks and Flowers....would that be ok?

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10 minutes ago, hi8is said:

You sure about that?

Nope, the 5.3 was correct. I should learn how to add. 

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21 minutes ago, fathom said:

I know it’s dangerous to do this, but if you take away Lynn’s final start, his numbers were incredible.

The Astros had his number. 16 of his 31 ER last season came against Houston in just 2 starts. 5 of his 13 HRs allowed also came against Houston. I wouldn't be too worried about his ability to pitch for the next year. 

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11 minutes ago, fathom said:

FWIW Portillos saying Musgrove is still an option.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PortillosHambu1/status/1336200112188616704

I honestly would have preferred Musgrove over Lynn for a cheaper price. You get 2 years of control, he's much younger and can still improve, and he's been quietly very good for the past few years. 

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8 minutes ago, kwill said:

I do wonder if White Sox fans no matter what would balk at trading any young players for anybody at this point. Like everything would be an overpay.

Dunning is the 98th best prospect according to mlb.com and Avery Weems is probably not in the top 250 for a potential top 10 starter in the AL. If this was for another team seeing this trade happen would you really think that is an overpay. 

The problem is everybody wants the ripoff trade for their club. There has to be an upside for both sides to make it. 

I doubt there would be much complaint if the Sox traded him for a player with longer term control. As has been pointed out, Lynn could have an excellent a year and the trade still could easily be a net loss. If the Sox continue making trades like this for stop gaps, the talent pool will be depleted very quickly. 

Edited by Vulture
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