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Trevor Bauer v. Lance Lynn

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2 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

I support the trade for both teams but I take that scenario 100 percent. We could replace Lynn with another good pitcher and hope that Kopech and Cease reach their potential. The championship is here forever and would signal we have at least another 4 or 5 years of hope for another. 

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11 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

A World Series Championship justifies everything.

It's like the Chapman trade for the Cubs.  I don't fault them for that.

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4 minutes ago, ScooterMcGee said:

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

Horrible trade. This rebuild was not supposed to be about a one off title. It was supposed to be about sustainable success and competing for (and hopefully winning) several championships. If Dunning turns into Bieber for Texas, the Sox don't have that cost controlled asset to fill out their rotation in 2022-2026. We all like Kopech, Cease, Crochet, et al, and want them to succeed, but they could all flame out, leaving 2 rotation spots to fill in 2022 and 3 to fill in 2023. Dunning would've left one less spot to fill in both years, and signing Bauer would've put it at 1 spot to fill in 2023. This trade actually creates more uncertainty in the competitive window to try to win in 2021. That's why I hate it.

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31 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

So let’s say Quintana + Lynn costs $16M in 2021 and produces 5.0 WAR. While Bauer + Dunning costs $34M and produces 6.8 WAR. The second option cost also us a second round draft pick but the first option cost us Avery Weems. Not sure how the second option is obviously better. Putting aside that it’s unrealistic with this ownership (they’re never signing a big money contract for a pitcher like Bauer), I’m still not convinced it’s a better use of resources. 

So then you say, yea but you’d have Bauer and Dunning for many years beyond 2021. How do you know that’s a good thing? The first option leaves the organization with all kinds of flexibility in 2022 and beyond while the second option leaves the organization devastated by one injury (TJS perhaps) to Bauer or what if Dunning flames out? Even if Dunning and Bauer are rock solid for many years to come (unlikely), you can always sign more pitching each offseason for “just money”.

More than 2021 matters. There's a whole decade that we're hoping will be a competitive window. Ignoring that you find 2 less WAR to be just fine, there's 2022-2025 where you fill two rotation spots with good-great pitchers. Bauer is a 1 to pair with Giolito, then you get a 3 and 4 out of Dunning and Keuchel until he's gone,  and suddenly the pressure is off Kopech and Cease to have to carry the rotation for at least two more years. Plus, there's a surplus of pitching talent in those years in case of injury or regression, and if none of that happens, there's flexibility in talent, where it matters, to go acquire a final piece for a title. Sure, they can sign pitchers for money next year, but will any of them be of the quality of Bauer?

23 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

When the trade was first made, my immediate reaction was extend Lynn for two years. But after thinking about it more, I’d wait. They have time. If he’s a stud again to start this year, offer him a two year extension. If not, let him walk and pursue one of Verlander, Grienke, or Scherzer on a short term deal selling them on the idea of winning a title at the tail end of their career.

What the fuck is the point of financial flexibility now? You want so much talent you don't know what to do with it at this point. That's the flexibility that matters now, and that's the flexibility the Sox traded away.

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12 hours ago, nitetrain8601 said:

I don't think he has. You can't leave out relevant information. No reason why the Sox should be penny pinching like they are.

Yes there is. Hahn needs to work within his budget. He needs to use it to fill as many holes as possible. The holes were SP, RF and bullpen. He has filled 2.

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1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

More than 2021 matters. There's a whole decade that we're hoping will be a competitive window. Ignoring that you find 2 less WAR to be just fine, there's 2022-2025 where you fill two rotation spots with good-great pitchers. Bauer is a 1 to pair with Giolito, then you get a 3 and 4 out of Dunning and Keuchel until he's gone,  and suddenly the pressure is off Kopech and Cease to have to carry the rotation for at least two more years. Plus, there's a surplus of pitching talent in those years in case of injury or regression, and if none of that happens, there's flexibility in talent, where it matters, to go acquire a final piece for a title. Sure, they can sign pitchers for money next year, but will any of them be of the quality of Bauer?

What the fuck is the point of financial flexibility now? You want so much talent you don't know what to do with it at this point. That's the flexibility that matters now, and that's the flexibility the Sox traded away.

I’m not following you at all. It’s a dumb comparison to begin with because Bauer is not an option for the Sox. He’s just not. You have to be realistic about how this organization operates. The idea of signing a frontline pitcher to a mega deal is not happening for this organization and that’s fine because they can still win a title without that type of move (again, think along the lines of organizations like the Astros or Cardinals).

I’m not concerned about losing Dunning and Weems for one season of Lynn when the Sox are projected to be the third best team in the AL and a title contender in 2021 even before this deal was made. Dunning is a small price to pay for a shot at a title next season. If you’re concerned about “losing” Dunning’s spot in the rotation in 2022 and beyond, you have the option to extend Lynn hopefully at a reasonable cost or sign a free agent to fill the void.

Edited by JUSTgottaBELIEVE
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56 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Yes there is. Hahn needs to work within his budget. He needs to use it to fill as many holes as possible. The holes were SP, RF and bullpen. He has filled 2.

Not sure why Sox fans think they’ll suddenly spend like the Yankees or Dodgers. I’ll be happy if the Sox run a top 10 payroll the next few years and I think they will.

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3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not following you at all. It’s a dumb comparison to begin with because Bauer is not an option for the Sox. He’s just not. You have to be realistic about how this organization operates. The idea of signing a frontline pitcher to a mega deal is not happening for this organization and that’s fine because they can still win a title without that type of move (again, think along the lines of organizations like the Astros or Cardinals).

I’m not concerned about losing Dunning and Weems for one season of Lynn when the Sox are projected to be the third best team in the AL and a title contender in 2021 even before this deal was made. Dunning is a small price to pay for a shot at a title next season. If you’re concerned about “losing” Dunning’s spot in the rotation in 2022 and beyond, you have the option to extend Lynn hopefully at a reasonable cost or sign a free agent to fill the void.

Bauer is an option if "The money will be spent" as they so famously claimed.

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10 hours ago, ScooterMcGee said:

People who are not thrilled about the Lance Lynn signing...hypothetical question for you.

If the Sox only have Lynn for 2021 and he signs somewhere else next offseason, but they win the world series with him in 2021 and he is a major reason why they won it, and also Dunning turns into an ace for Texas and ends up winning a Cy Young in the next 6 years, what would you think of the trade then?

Of course that would be fine. The part that wouldn't be fine would be Uncle Jerry being to cheap to re-sign him after helping lead the Sox to a title.

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1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Bauer is an option if "The money will be spent" as they so famously claimed.

Why is it not possible that the White Sox have $150 million to spend on pitching and they want to spend it on extending Lynn for 22-23 and then Gio 24-27?  I'm not sure that isn't better than Bauer...and I'm a bit cautious about the Cleveland pitching fairy dust...do they send that along with the signing?    

You also suggest that it's possible that Kopech, Crochet, Cease, Kelly, Thompson, Dahlquist, Lopez, Stiever, Lambert, Flores, Pinklington could all flame out...yet Dunning is a sure thing??   I'm not sure if you listed those pitchers in the terms of likely WAR over the next 6 years that Dunning would be in top five.  We had to give SOMETHING for a top ten pitcher signed to a team friendly contract.   Dunning seems about fair.  

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1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Why is it not possible that the White Sox have $150 million to spend on pitching and they want to spend it on extending Lynn for 22-23 and then Gio 24-27?  I'm not sure that isn't better than Bauer...and I'm a bit cautious about the Cleveland pitching fairy dust...do they send that along with the signing?    

You also suggest that it's possible that Kopech, Crochet, Cease, Kelly, Thompson, Dahlquist, Lopez, Stiever, Lambert, Flores, Pinklington could all flame out...yet Dunning is a sure thing??   I'm not sure if you listed those pitchers in the terms of likely WAR over the next 6 years that Dunning would be in top five.  We had to give SOMETHING for a top ten pitcher signed to a team friendly contract.   Dunning seems about fair.  

I see all these hypotheticals about what the Sox can do with the money. Here's a hypothetical: what if the Sox talent and roster flexibility rivaled the Dodgers? I'm far more interested in that than in saving Jerry's pocketbook.

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29 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

I see all these hypotheticals about what the Sox can do with the money. Here's a hypothetical: what if the Sox talent and roster flexibility rivaled the Dodgers? I'm far more interested in that than in saving Jerry's pocketbook.

From 2006 to 2011 White Sox were in top five payrolls 4 times.   What evidence is there they wont do it again?  Maybe they just dont see Springer and Bauer as special enough 

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7 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

From 2006 to 2011 White Sox were in top five payrolls 4 times.   What evidence is there they wont do it again?  Maybe they just dont see Springer and Bauer as special enough 

Well, I want to see a payroll thats anywhere close to that now that it's a decade later and the last few years we were near the bottom of the league. In those 5 years the sox spent:

127m
121m
108m 2x
102m
96m

In 2019 the $127m would land you in the 18th highest paying team. According to Sportrac, the 2021 projected Sox payroll is $101m - just barely above league average at $98m, and it seems like Hahn has a hard cap that he is able to spend to that isn't that much higher than what it is now.  The Sox can add $40m in payroll tomorrow and still be 6th in the league - I just don't see Jerry spending that much based on what he's done that last decade. 

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12 hours ago, Superstar Lamar said:

A World Series Championship justifies everything.

It's like the Chapman trade for the Cubs.  I don't fault them for that.

Couldn't disagree more. The problem with this assumption is it assumes they wouldn't win with dunning at anytime. Playoffs are a crap shoot. Goal is to  get there as much as possible to Increase WS likelihood.

4 years of dunning as an ace gives you a better chance than 1 year of lynn being good.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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10 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Couldn't disagree more. The problem with this assumption is it assumes they wouldn't win with dunning at anytime. Playoffs are a crap shoot. Goal is to  get there as much as possible to Increase WS likelihood.

4 years of dunning as an ace gives you a better chance than 1 year of lynn being good.

Yea, you lost me there

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4 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yea, you lost me there

Huh? I don't think Dane dunning is an ace. Im literally responding to a hypothetical question.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Huh? I don't think Dane dunning is an ace. Im literally responding to a hypothetical question.

Gotcha. This entire thread is a waste. Bauer was never an option for this organization so I don’t see the point in discussing it. We all know Jerry’s opinion on long term big $$$ contracts for pitchers so why did anyone think Bauer was a realistic option? What am I missing here? 

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12 hours ago, ptatc said:

Yes there is. Hahn needs to work within his budget. He needs to use it to fill as many holes as possible. The holes were SP, RF and bullpen. He has filled 2.

Has he?

Very few people believe he adequately addressed RF.

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7 hours ago, YoYoIsMyHero said:

Well, I want to see a payroll thats anywhere close to that now that it's a decade later and the last few years we were near the bottom of the league. In those 5 years the sox spent:

127m
121m
108m 2x
102m
96m

In 2019 the $127m would land you in the 18th highest paying team. According to Sportrac, the 2021 projected Sox payroll is $101m - just barely above league average at $98m, and it seems like Hahn has a hard cap that he is able to spend to that isn't that much higher than what it is now.  The Sox can add $40m in payroll tomorrow and still be 6th in the league - I just don't see Jerry spending that much based on what he's done that last decade. 

Nobody outside of JR's inner circle really knows...we are just speculating.  But we do know that they TOLD us the money would be spent.  And we do know for sure that the team had two really great runs in the last thirty years.  That team in the mid 90's and the team in the mid 00's.   Each time, for about a five year period when the White Sox were really good, the White Sox payroll was top five in baseball.  In the 90's it was $55 mill.  In the 00's it was $120's.  Each time JR paid. It's inarguable that after those great teams began falling apart JR cut the payroll...we dropped to 26th in 2000 at only $31 mill when the team was transitioning.  I'm sure prenatal Soxtalk was saying that "JR is cheap...he will never spend again....to get to a top five payroll he'd have to spend $120 mill and its just never going to happen" and yet six years later the team was good and we were again in top 5.  So outside of the counter evidence...that JR hasn't spent during the rebuild (Something they basically told us) I feel good about them spending.

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16 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

From 2006 to 2011 White Sox were in top five payrolls 4 times.   What evidence is there they wont do it again?  Maybe they just dont see Springer and Bauer as special enough 

Yeah who would want a Cy Young award winner as part of their starting rotation? Those guys don't make an impact on a team at all.

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18 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Couldn't disagree more. The problem with this assumption is it assumes they wouldn't win with dunning at anytime. Playoffs are a crap shoot. Goal is to  get there as much as possible to Increase WS likelihood.

4 years of dunning as an ace gives you a better chance than 1 year of lynn being good.

Its a retroactive assessment that assumes a world series championship.  There is no need for increasing the chances because it is a certainty.  If a move was made and that move directly results in winning a world series, the move is justified.  It's not specific to this situations

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