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Extensions You’d Like to See

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

There's a huge difference between reaching FA at 29 vs reaching FA at 31. 

Yeah I agree with this point. 

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I remember when we said Moncada and Robert wouldn't sign extensions because they were signed for a lot out of LatAm.

 

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5 minutes ago, bmags said:

I remember when we said Moncada and Robert wouldn't sign extensions because they were signed for a lot out of LatAm.

 

Giolito didn't start his MLB career with 25-30M in their pocket like Moncada and Robert. They're both already likely to have $100M in career earnings. 

Also Giolito already comes from a wealthy family so he can afford to bet on himself more than other players. 

I don't see him re-signing unless those 2 years of FA are worth $30M+ per year. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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I think I am in the minority here, but I don't want to see a Lynn extension unless the the third year is an option.

A huge benefit of Lynn is he is cheap, but a huge risk is that he is entering his age-34 season and has a relatively short track record of success. Only having one year of cheap obligation to Lynn mitigates that risk (financially, obviously its still a major competitive risk).

I get that it stings to trade 6 years of control for 1, but I'd rather get 1 good year out of Lynn for cheap than 1 good, 1 mediocre, and 1 trash, and for more money too. Hard pass on owing 36 year old Lynn 10-15 million. That said, I hope this opinion ends up aging like the Abreu extension takes. 

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19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Giolito didn't start his MLB career with 25-30M in their pocket like Moncada and Robert. They're both already likely to have $100M in career earnings. 

Also Giolito already comes from a wealthy family so he can afford to bet on himself more than other players. 

I don't see him re-signing unless those 2 years of FA are worth $30M+ per year. 

So Giolito is worth 30 mil per year but Bauer isn’t?

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20 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Giolito didn't start his MLB career with 25-30M in their pocket like Moncada and Robert. They're both already likely to have $100M in career earnings. 

Also Giolito already comes from a wealthy family so he can afford to bet on himself more than other players. 

I don't see him re-signing unless those 2 years of FA are worth $30M+ per year. 

This angle has always been a weird one to me. Just because your parents have money doesn't mean you want to be a grown man piggybacking off your parents wealth. Especially not elite athletes who have very high competitive drives; the last thing they want to do is live off their parents name or money.

I think extensions have a lot more to do with your personal comfort or drive in the game; do you want to milk every dollar from the game as possible, or do you want to hedge a bit and guarantee that your main job/career sets you up for life. There's arguments to be made for both sides, but I really don't think someones parents wealth dictate extension talks.

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24 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Giolito didn't start his MLB career with 25-30M in their pocket like Moncada and Robert. They're both already likely to have $100M in career earnings. 

Also Giolito already comes from a wealthy family so he can afford to bet on himself more than other players. 

I don't see him re-signing unless those 2 years of FA are worth $30M+ per year. 

Giolito didn't start with money like Moncada and Robert so he is more likely to want to hit FA.

Also, Giolito already has money so he can wait for FA.

Just normal, rational stuff.

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6 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I think I am in the minority here, but I don't want to see a Lynn extension unless the the third year is an option.

A huge benefit of Lynn is he is cheap, but a huge risk is that he is entering his age-34 season and has a relatively short track record of success. Only having one year of cheap obligation to Lynn mitigates that risk (financially, obviously its still a major competitive risk).

I get that it stings to trade 6 years of control for 1, but I'd rather get 1 good year out of Lynn for cheap than 1 good, 1 mediocre, and 1 trash, and for more money too. Hard pass on owing 36 year old Lynn 10-15 million. That said, I hope this opinion ends up aging like the Abreu extension takes. 

This, beyond some type of bargain I’m more comfortable with the Sox approaching this after year end, assuming there is a year (2021 Rona 2022 CBA).

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Lynn. 2 years 33 mil. Option for 3rd year @18 mil, with a 7 mil buyout. So it would be 40 mil guaranteed. I suspect he would bite on this offer give his age, weight, the uncertainty of the pandemic and his troubles getting a deal the last time he was as free agent. Because if he has a rough 2021, he will be right back there again. 

For Giolito - I'll go along with CWS's numbers. 

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This angle has always been a weird one to me. Just because your parents have money doesn't mean you want to be a grown man piggybacking off your parents wealth. Especially not elite athletes who have very high competitive drives; the last thing they want to do is live off their parents name or money.

I think extensions have a lot more to do with your personal comfort or drive in the game; do you want to milk every dollar from the game as possible, or do you want to hedge a bit and guarantee that your main job/career sets you up for life. There's arguments to be made for both sides, but I really don't think someones parents wealth dictate extension talks.

I think what people mean when they bring up that point is that he is not coming from poverty. When you do, you want to secure wealth immediately. I don’t know Gio’s entire story but I’m pretty sure he has never experienced poverty and is not in a rush to experience wealth. He makes a lot of money on his own already. I doubt living off his parents is in the equation.

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Lance Lynn, pitcher of 1500 innings with a career 3.57 ERA, has a short track record of success.

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1 minute ago, bmags said:

Lance Lynn, pitcher of 1500 innings with a career 3.57 ERA, has a short track record of success.

He has a short track record of Ace-like success but he has always been pretty good. His worst time was with the Twins/Yankees.

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4 minutes ago, Orlando said:

I think what people mean when they bring up that point is that he is not coming from poverty. When you do, you want to secure wealth immediately. I don’t know Gio’s entire story but I’m pretty sure he has never experienced poverty and is not in a rush to experience wealth. He makes a lot of money on his own already. I doubt living off his parents is in the equation.

Yeah, but there's a big difference between being guaranteed 100 million in a sport in which your career can be destroyed at any point and living comfortably and in wealth off his current wage. He's also already had TJ, already had his career take a horrible turn for the worst once - in which he had to reinvent himself to survive. I think Giolito likely understands how fragile this entire thing is; better than even the average professional athlete.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Just now, Orlando said:

He has a short track record of Ace-like success but he has always been pretty good. His worst time was with the Twins/Yankees.

He hit FA at the worst possible time of his career due to both market and his bad year. But considering 1 yr 10 mill seems like the cost of business for just "pitcher we think can pitch 150 ip even if its bad", I feel comfortable giving 18 mill or so to lance lynn where it's likely he'll be available and hit something like 3 WAR.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, but there's a big difference between being guaranteed 100 million in a sport in which your career can be destroyed at any point and living comfortably and in wealth off his current wage. He's also already had TJ, already had his career take a horrible turn for the worst once - in which he had to reinvent himself to survive. I think Giolito likely understands how fragile this entire thing is.

Also wasn’t there some discussion that his new mechanics aren’t exactly shoulder friendly?

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Also wasn’t there some discussion that his new mechanics aren’t exactly shoulder friendly?

I hadn't heard that. When he changed them I thought consensus was it asks a lot of his legs and he would have fatigue issues.

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21 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

I think I am in the minority here, but I don't want to see a Lynn extension unless the the third year is an option.

A huge benefit of Lynn is he is cheap, but a huge risk is that he is entering his age-34 season and has a relatively short track record of success. Only having one year of cheap obligation to Lynn mitigates that risk (financially, obviously its still a major competitive risk).

I get that it stings to trade 6 years of control for 1, but I'd rather get 1 good year out of Lynn for cheap than 1 good, 1 mediocre, and 1 trash, and for more money too. Hard pass on owing 36 year old Lynn 10-15 million. That said, I hope this opinion ends up aging like the Abreu extension takes. 

I'm in total agreement. At what point did we start thinking 3 year contracts for 35 yr old pitchers was good? I would be okay giving him a 1 year extension, but going beyond that is just ridiculous.

Giolito is the obvious answer and I have to assume they have approached him already. I think bringing in Katz as the pitching coach should be a plus in Gio's camp. I would think something along the lines of 4/57 with a club option of 25M for 2026. That would be 8/13/16/20... then the team option at 25. That would put him as a FA at 31. 

The next person I would look at an extension for is Crochet. To be honest he wasn't as highly thought of out of college as he looked at MLB. With his arm injuries, he may be most willing to take a generous offer from the Sox with guaranteed money. Then we wouldn't have to worry about service time. Maybe 7/35, with 2 team option years at 10M, like Albies. Even if Crochet turns out to be a closer, we are looking at paying a closer 3/40 right now, so the 7/35 is well worth it even in that instance. 

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30 minutes ago, Orlando said:

He has a short track record of Ace-like success but he has always been pretty good. His worst time was with the Twins/Yankees.

He was pretty damn with the Yankees.

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1) Giolito, but at the numbers he will probably be looking for, it really doesn't make sense to just give him that money now unless you think that under Katz as a plus factor (even with Grandal as a minus factor) he will get better.  If he maintains or is worse, the number should stay the same or come down, but if he gets better the number will increase.  I think most likely the Sox make him "prove it" over 200IP in 2021, if it is a full schedule.

2) Vaughn: absolutely, but it should be less than Robert because he's not a CF.  Maybe similar to Eloy's deal, but probably less because Vaughn wasn't rated as high as Eloy (even though he's probably a defender at his position whereas Eloy is just a DH).  I have no issue guaranteeing money to Andrew Vaughn.

3) Cease, Kopech, and Crochet: if deals can be found that pay them like an All-Star closer in their 6th years and include TOs after, then sure, but they all need a full season starting to get bigger dollars than that.  But in theory, extending them at closer pay and then watching them turn into top-end SPs would be Sale-like steals.

4) Heuer: give him something like Bummer's money, but hopefully less.  This guy is nails.

5) Lynn: doesn't have to be done, but should.  The Sox are probably going to be high on his return wishlist after the season anyway, and they have him for very  cheap this year.  Depends on the cost.  1 more year + 1 TO is the goal, but 2 guaranteed years + 1 TO is the likely cost.

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2 hours ago, bmags said:

Big Pitching FAs next year

Young

Dylan Bundy
Stroman
Gausman
Syndegaard
McCullers
Eduardo Rodriguez

Vets
Kershaw
Greinke
Scherzer

Isn’t Verlander a free agent as well?

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I see no reason to extend Lynn if it’s going to take 2/$40M, or I would at least wait a few months to do so as Fathom said.

I would use Cole Hamels as a recent comp. Hamels got 1/$18M coming off a 2.5 fWAR season at age 36. Lynn was on pace for 4 fWAR last season he would reach FA at 34.5. Assuming he puts another 4 WAR season (and no regression due to age and switching teams). I don’t see him him getting much more than 2/$40M in the open market in a post pandemic environment with a pretty good FA pitching class to boot.

I would not be jumping on a 2/$40M extension, but 2/$35M or 3/$50M would be reasonable to me.

 

Edited by thxfrthmmrs

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35 minutes ago, TheCommish said:

I'm in total agreement. At what point did we start thinking 3 year contracts for 35 yr old pitchers was good? I would be okay giving him a 1 year extension, but going beyond that is just ridiculous.

Giolito is the obvious answer and I have to assume they have approached him already. I think bringing in Katz as the pitching coach should be a plus in Gio's camp. I would think something along the lines of 4/57 with a club option of 25M for 2026. That would be 8/13/16/20... then the team option at 25. That would put him as a FA at 31. 

The next person I would look at an extension for is Crochet. To be honest he wasn't as highly thought of out of college as he looked at MLB. With his arm injuries, he may be most willing to take a generous offer from the Sox with guaranteed money. Then we wouldn't have to worry about service time. Maybe 7/35, with 2 team option years at 10M, like Albies. Even if Crochet turns out to be a closer, we are looking at paying a closer 3/40 right now, so the 7/35 is well worth it even in that instance. 

Full stop.

What?

Garrett Crochet was a consensus first round pick.  You aren't a first round pick if you aren't "highly thought of"

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This angle has always been a weird one to me. Just because your parents have money doesn't mean you want to be a grown man piggybacking off your parents wealth. Especially not elite athletes who have very high competitive drives; the last thing they want to do is live off their parents name or money.

I think extensions have a lot more to do with your personal comfort or drive in the game; do you want to milk every dollar from the game as possible, or do you want to hedge a bit and guarantee that your main job/career sets you up for life. There's arguments to be made for both sides, but I really don't think someones parents wealth dictate extension talks.

Also, with his performance so far as long as he stays healthy, he's going to make 40M over the next 3 years through arbitration which isn't exactly nothing. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 hour ago, bmags said:

Giolito didn't start with money like Moncada and Robert so he is more likely to want to hit FA.

Also, Giolito already has money so he can wait for FA.

Just normal, rational stuff.

We were all surprised when Moncada and Robert signed. 

The difference between the two is that Robert and Moncada guaranteed themselves $75M+ in career earnings. In Moncada's case over $100M. Giolito, even with an extension, doesn't get that far. 

Logic says: if you already have money, why throw some away when you can get more? 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

We were all surprised when Moncada and Robert signed. 

The difference between the two is that Robert and Moncada guaranteed themselves $75M+ in career earnings. In Moncada's case over $100M. Giolito, even with an extension, doesn't get that far. 

An extension for Giolito if it includes this season is probably going to end up being $85 or 90 million to get a five year deal done.  So even if he doesn't get to $100 million, it is really darned close, and still leaves him the change at another really long deal after his fills this one up.

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