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Predict the Lineup

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Any updated predictions now that we’ve seen some spring training lineups? I’m thinking something like this:

  1. Anderson 
  2. Eaton
  3. Abreu
  4. Moncada
  5. Eloy
  6. Grandal
  7. Robert
  8. Vaughn
  9. Madrigal

 

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WIth all the names in that lineup, I really don't understand Eaton getting the 2nd most PAs.  

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Posted (edited)

I think the lineup from the other day is a pretty safe bet. 

I think it was 

Anderson

robert

Abreu

Moncada

Eloy

Grandal

Eaton

Vaughn

Madrigal

I'd probably flip Robert and Grandal for now though

Edited by mqr

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Points bet posted a +100 on the Sox to score 1+ runs on Opening Day with a limited max bet. I think I'll take it.

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1 hour ago, Leonard Zelig said:

WIth all the names in that lineup, I really don't understand Eaton getting the 2nd most PAs.  

Because you want your best hitters to get the most base runners on base from their appearances, not the most appearances. 3-6 hitters hit with 20-25% more base runners over course of a season. Sacrificing that for fifteen extra at bats isn’t worth it

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I doubt Robert bats second. Probably just maximizing number of at bats in ST since he obviously needs the work.

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I hate the idea of Yoan batting 4th against LHP.  He needs to be 7th or so from his weaker side.

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What I would do. RHP/LHP

1. TA/TA

2. Moncada/Robert

3. Abreu/Eloy

4. Eloy/Abreu

5. Grandal/Moncada

6. Robert/Grandal

7. Vaughn/Vaughn

8. Eaton/Engel

9. Madrigal/Madrigal

What I expect from TLR

1. Anderon/Anderson

2. Eaton/Robert

3. Abreu/Abreu

4. Moncada/Moncada

5. Eloy/Eloy

6. Grandal/Grandal

7. Robert/Vaughn

8. Vaughn/Engel

9. Madrigal/Madrigal

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2 hours ago, Vulture said:

Because you want your best hitters to get the most base runners on base from their appearances, not the most appearances. 3-6 hitters hit with 20-25% more base runners over course of a season. Sacrificing that for fifteen extra at bats isn’t worth it

Do you think Eaton is the best choice for the 2nd spot in the lineup?

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Do you think Eaton is the best choice for the 2nd spot in the lineup?

If he’s at his .360 obp level of play probably. I’d actually go:

Eaton/Madrigal

Moncada

Abreu 

Anderson

Jimenez

Grandal 

Vaughn

Robert

Madrigal/Eaton

But considering Anderson isn’t probably leaving the top spot Abreu, Moncada and Jimenez at 3-5 is probably next best option. 5th spot in order on average actually gets the most runners on base

Edited by Vulture

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2 minutes ago, Vulture said:

If he’s at his .360 obp level of play probably. I’d actually go:

Eaton/Madrigal

Moncada

Abreu 

Anderson

Jimenez

Grandal 

Vaughn

Robert

Madrigal/Eaton

But considering Anderson isn’t probably leaving the top spot Abreu, Moncada and Jimenez at 3-5 is probably next best option

Sweet Baby Jesus

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Sweet Baby Jesus

All about maximizing runners on base for your best average hitter who doesn’t walk. He’s being wasted at lead off when you have other batters than can get on base at same clip. Almost a quarter of his at bats guaranteed to be with bases empty the rest come after the worst hitters in lineup. Since his walk rate is barely 5% that means he’s getting base hits in close to 30% of his plate appearances. Wasted in lead off spot when those hits could be driving home runners. Better off with grandal there since he only gets a base hit in less than 20% of PA which doesn’t do much good with runners on. Anderson at fourth spot would result in a chance at hitting every time up behind three hitters who can put up .350+ OBP

Edited by Vulture

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20 minutes ago, Vulture said:

All about maximizing runners on base for your best average hitter who doesn’t walk. He’s being wasted at lead off when you have other batters than can get on base at same clip. Almost a quarter of his at bats guaranteed to be with bases empty the rest come after the worst hitters in lineup. Since his walk rate is barely 5% that means he’s getting base hits in close to 30% of his plate appearances. Wasted in lead off spot when those hits could be driving home runners. Better off with grandal there since he only gets a base hit in less than 20% of PA which doesn’t do much good with runners on. Anderson at fourth spot would result in a chance at hitting every time up behind three hitters who can put up .350+ OBP

Fangraphs 2021 projected OPS: 

Eloy Jimenez .878 vs. Anderson .776

In terms of leadoff, I do agree Anderson is not always optimal vs. RHP. However, I do agree with LaRussa’s call to slot Anderson in the lead off hole, and Abreu third as permanent fixtures to solidify the lineup is a different animal psychologically vs. the other lineup slots, same as closer for bullpen pitchers.

Would rather maximize at bats across the four best hitters, Anderson, Moncada, Abreu and Jimenez, and let the bottom sort itself out. I can see an argument of Grandal at #2 vs. Moncada vs. Righties (.813 vs LHP, .702 vs. RHP) , moving Moncada 5th.

I don’t have a lot of confidence in Eaton at this stage of his career, and Madrigal needs to prove himself with only a few dozen games under his belt. If either prove consistent production after a few months, perhaps top of the order would make sense, but I wouldn’t start the season that way.

 

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5th hitter on average bats with most runners on base that’s why I slot in Eloy there. That would theoretically be enhanced further by following Moncada, Abreu and Anderson. It’ll never happen so it’s kind of pointless but that’s how I’d do it.

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1. Anderson, SS

2. Robert, CF

3. Abreu, 1B

4. Jimenez, LF

5. Moncada, 3B

6. Grandal, C

7. Vaughn, DH

8. Eaton, RF 

9. Madrigal, 2B

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7 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Anderson

Eaton

Abreu

Jiminez

Grandal

Robert

Vaughn

Williams

Madrigal

 

You meant Moncada, not Jimenez.

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Posted (edited)

Bottom third of the lineup is about to become all slappy.

Edited by manbearpuig

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Posted (edited)

Grandal is perhaps the worst option possible for fifth spot in order. Hopefully Robert and/or Vaughn hit to extent that doesn’t happen. Since 2019 he only has had a base hit in 19.5% of his plate appearances. Compare to 25.7 for Eloy or 31.6 for Anderson. That  isn’t going to bring many runs home

Edited by Vulture

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Even the worst hitter in the lineup who hasn’t played to his potential, Williams, has done far better at collecting hits at 25.4% of PA compared to Grandal at 19.5. Grandal is the last guy you want at the plate with runners on base while fifth spot sees more runners on than any spot in lineup.

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Anderson SS

Grandal C

Abreu 1B

Moncada 3B

Robert CF

Vaughn LF

Collins DH

Eaton RF

Madrigal 2B

 

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R SS Anderson

L RF Eaton

R 1B Abreu

S 3B Moncada

S C  Grandal

R CF Robert

L DH Collins

R LF Vaughn

R 2B Madrigal

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