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Madrigal.

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1 hour ago, hi8is said:

Come on guys... it’s been 5 hours and no Madrigal slamming. You all be slackin.

Is that like 'illin' but a different generation? 

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8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Is that like 'illin' but a different generation? 

Licensed to ill?

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Just now, hi8is said:

Licensed to ill?

That's Beastie Boys. They shot some of those videos in Echo Canyon area not so far from Dodger Stadium.   Sabotage, maybe...sound track of high school, along with New Order, Depeche Mode and The Cult. 

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The difference between this thread and the one for Moncada is interesting. There are some posters who have been bashing Madrigal's potential in this thread who are over there telling people to be patient and that 2020 and 2021 are too small of samples for Moncada to tell a story. Come on. Check your biases

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3 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

The difference between this thread and the one for Moncada is interesting. There are some posters who have been bashing Madrigal's potential in this thread who are over there telling people to be patient and that 2020 and 2021 are too small of samples for Moncada to tell a story. Come on. Check your biases

Higher ceiling = more a sure thing, apparently.

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11 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

The difference between this thread and the one for Moncada is interesting. There are some posters who have been bashing Madrigal's potential in this thread who are over there telling people to be patient and that 2020 and 2021 are too small of samples for Moncada to tell a story. Come on. Check your biases

Moncada and Madrigal will both be part of the next WS team.  No reason to be bashing either of them.🙂

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14 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

1. Stop being a douche. 

2. Silver Slugger is well within the realm of possibility for him.

A Silver SLG%er is as within his realm of possibility as 3000 hits.  I know you're a Madrigal supporter but statements like these make me concerned.  Have you spoken to a professional about this?

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21 minutes ago, YourWhatHurts said:

A Silver SLG%er is as within his realm of possibility as 3000 hits.  I know you're a Madrigal supporter but statements like these make me concerned.  Have you spoken to a professional about this?

If the motherfucker can hit .300+ consistently why would that not give him a good chance?

Have you spoken to a professional about your impulse of being a douche?

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FFS enough 

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2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

The difference between this thread and the one for Moncada is interesting. There are some posters who have been bashing Madrigal's potential in this thread who are over there telling people to be patient and that 2020 and 2021 are too small of samples for Moncada to tell a story. Come on. Check your biases

Talk about apples to oranges.  Moncada is averaging 4 WAR per 162 games before turning 26. Everything is relative.  People expect Moncada to be a star, so far he sorta has, which is the beef, because he was the number one overall prospect.

Nick was billed as a can't miss regular at 2B.  So far he has played like a 1 WAR backup.  The complaints about Nick and Yoan are coming from completely different places and of course the guy who has already put up a star full season will get more leeway.

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2 hours ago, reiks12 said:

The difference between this thread and the one for Moncada is interesting. There are some posters who have been bashing Madrigal's potential in this thread who are over there telling people to be patient and that 2020 and 2021 are too small of samples for Moncada to tell a story. Come on. Check your biases

I’m skeptical of Madrigal’s value and very pro Moncada, because Moncada’s “sample size” is actually 411 games and he has already proven he can produce 4.15 fWAR per 162. There simply isn’t a sample size issue when it comes to evaluating his entire production; Moncada has already proven he is an all star caliber player, albeit a very streaky one.

For those attempting to cherry pick the last 68 games and extrapolate that Moncada is somehow bad now, the answer is no, he’s absolutely not. He’s still very, very good. The set of 2020-21 games being referenced is just cherry picking bad stats due to BABIP being low and perhaps after effects of COVID. 

Moncada’s already proven himself and Madrigal has not. 

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52 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I’m skeptical of Madrigal’s value and very pro Moncada, because Moncada’s “sample size” is actually 411 games and he has already proven he can produce 4.15 fWAR per 162. There simply isn’t a sample size issue when it comes to evaluating his entire production; Moncada has already proven he is an all star caliber player, albeit a very streaky one.

For those attempting to cherry pick the last 68 games and extrapolate that Moncada is somehow bad now, the answer is no, he’s absolutely not. He’s still very, very good. The set of 2020-21 games being referenced is just cherry picking bad stats due to BABIP being low and perhaps after effects of COVID. 

Moncada’s already proven himself and Madrigal has not. 

Is 1 good season out of like 4 really proving anything, though?

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27 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

Is 1 good season out of like 4 really proving anything, though?

10.5 WAR over 2.53 complete seasons is proving something. Why are you hung up on separating the off the charts elite year from the subpar or the mediocre ones when the entire resume is aggregately an all star clip? 

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Let me put this another way.

We already know Moncada had a 132 game season in which he put up 5.6 fWAR, which is top tier. We also already know he can have bad streaks, but the least fWAR he does is 2.0 (his full 2018 season). So it seems like good Moncada year or bad Moncada year....like some have suggested in the other thread, his spread is huge, 2-6 fWAR but not less than 2. That’s the key - not less than 2 but the ceiling is huge. Very high ceiling and certainly a way high enough floor. 

So I guess I would like someone to take me through the stat line where Nick Madrigal could crack 3.5 fWAR, let alone 5-6 fWAR. I think we all know his floor is at least 1-1.5. I just can’t see him doing more than 2.5-3.5 as a ceiling. The value in Madrigal is if his floor is as high as we hope it is. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Talk about apples to oranges.  Moncada is averaging 4 WAR per 162 games before turning 26. Everything is relative.  People expect Moncada to be a star, so far he sorta has, which is the beef, because he was the number one overall prospect.

Nick was billed as a can't miss regular at 2B.  So far he has played like a 1 WAR backup.  The complaints about Nick and Yoan are coming from completely different places and of course the guy who has already put up a star full season will get more leeway.

If you take out Yoan's 2019 you get an average fWAR of 1.56 ( I did not include 2016 or 2021 since his WAR shows 0 and 0.1 respectively for those years). The scouting reports for Moncada billed him as a .300 hitter with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases as his floor! Outside of 2019 he hasnt shown that at all. I am Moncada's biggest fan and that is more disappointing than anything Madrigal has done (besides his play in Oakland). This team NEEDS Moncada to be his 2019 self for them to reach the next step. Here is a snippet of a scouting report for Moncada from 2016 (fangraphs):

Quote

This is the best prospect in baseball, a player I think will be a perennial All-Star and a potential MVP type of talent, with tools so deafeningly loud that it may be a while before we hear the echoes of his historical significance.

My disappointment in Moncada is not the point. He has not lived up to his scouting reports, we shouldnt crucify Madrigal for not living up to his in 40 games. He was billed as a regular second baseman and thats what he can be right now with the caveat that theres still room to grow, just like how there was room for Moncada to grow during 2017 and 2018. We were all frustrated with Moncada and worried that he would be a bust, but he eventually came through and gave us hope. Madrigal is not even doing THAT awful and hes billed as an organizational failure that will never improve. I believe he CAN improve and become something great.

1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I’m skeptical of Madrigal’s value and very pro Moncada, because Moncada’s “sample size” is actually 411 games and he has already proven he can produce 4.15 fWAR per 162. There simply isn’t a sample size issue when it comes to evaluating his entire production; Moncada has already proven he is an all star caliber player, albeit a very streaky one.

For those attempting to cherry pick the last 68 games and extrapolate that Moncada is somehow bad now, the answer is no, he’s absolutely not. He’s still very, very good. The set of 2020-21 games being referenced is just cherry picking bad stats due to BABIP being low and perhaps after effects of COVID. 

Moncada’s already proven himself and Madrigal has not. 

You can't say 'dont cherry pick those 68 games' and then use 40 games to come to a conclusion on another player. I know that isn't what you are doing, but its what quite a few people are latching onto.

In Moncada's first full season he was just 6 strikeouts away from chasing the single season strikeout record, and he would have gotten it if Renteria didnt sit him a bunch to end the season (if i remember correctly).I don't remember seeing this type of hate in 2017 and 2018 for Moncada and thats even with the rebuild feeling like it hinged on his success. I can understand the line of thinking that we are a WIN NOW team whereas 2017 and 2018 were rebuild years, however that line of thinking should also apply to Moncada's production right now. I guess what I am saying is Moncada is more concerning than Madrigal to me.

Skeptical is where most people should be, even as a Madrigal sympathizer/apologist I am worried about what I am seeing with his defense, and I am hoping for an increase in his slugging. I can understand posts where people are angry with him, but I am speaking more to the people who are frothing at the mouth implying hes a midget/small child and clamoring that he will never amount to anything. Those same people are babying Moncada in the other thread or Vaughn in his dedicated thread. There is genuine hate in these responses and it has a different feel than criticisms for other players. I dont even think Swisher got this type of a response. We just called Fulmer and Collins bad and busts. People need to chill out.

I wonder what the responses would be if Madrigal came to the Sox say in 2017 so he could develop during the stress free years, but something tells me it still would not have been pretty either. 

Edited by reiks12

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11 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

So I guess I would like someone to take me through the stat line where Nick Madrigal could crack 3.5 fWAR, let alone 5-6 fWAR. I think we all know his floor is at least 1-1.5. I just can’t see him doing more than 2.5-3.5 as a ceiling. The value in Madrigal is if his floor is as high as we hope it is. 

I mean Fangraphs steamer's projections for the next 3 years are just around 2 WAR per season (only 119 games per season). I am not sure if that includes defense, but if he shores it up there why would 3 be out of reach especially if he plays 155 games+? Its definitely possible, and if he does achieve that it would be one of the best 4th draft picks in recent memory.

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25 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

If you take out Yoan's 2019 you get an average fWAR of 1.56 ( I did not include 2016 or 2021 since his WAR shows 0 and 0.1 respectively for those years). The scouting reports for Moncada billed him as a .300 hitter with 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases as his floor! Outside of 2019 he hasnt shown that at all. I am Moncada's biggest fan and that is more disappointing than anything Madrigal has done (besides his play in Oakland). This team NEEDS Moncada to be his 2019 self for them to reach the next step. Here is a snippet of a scouting report for Moncada from 2016 (fangraphs):

My disappointment in Moncada is not the point. He has not lived up to his scouting reports, we shouldnt crucify Madrigal for not living up to his in 40 games. He was billed as a regular second baseman and thats what he can be right now with the caveat that theres still room to grow, just like how there was room for Moncada to grow during 2017 and 2018. We were all frustrated with Moncada and worried that he would be a bust, but he eventually came through and gave us hope. Madrigal is not even doing THAT awful and hes billed as an organizational failure that will never improve. I believe he CAN improve and become something great.

You can't say 'dont cherry pick those 68 games' and then use 40 games to come to a conclusion on another player. I know that isn't what you are doing, but its what quite a few people are latching onto.

In Moncada's first full season he was just 6 strikeouts away from chasing the single season strikeout record, and he would have gotten it if Renteria didnt sit him a bunch to end the season (if i remember correctly).I don't remember seeing this type of hate in 2017 and 2018 for Moncada and thats even with the rebuild feeling like it hinged on his success. I can understand the line of thinking that we are a WIN NOW team whereas 2017 and 2018 were rebuild years, however that line of thinking should also apply to Moncada's production right now. I guess what I am saying is Moncada is more concerning than Madrigal to me.

Skeptical is where most people should be, even as a Madrigal sympathizer/apologist I am worried about what I am seeing with his defense, and I am hoping for an increase in his slugging. I can understand posts where people are angry with him, but I am speaking more to the people who are frothing at the mouth implying hes a midget/small child and clamoring that he will never amount to anything. Those same people are babying Moncada in the other thread or Vaughn in his dedicated thread. There is genuine hate in these responses and it has a different feel than criticisms for other players. I dont even think Swisher got this type of a response. We just called Fulmer and Collins bad and busts. People need to chill out.

I wonder what the responses would be if Madrigal came to the Sox say in 2017 so he could develop during the stress free years, but something tells me it still would not have been pretty either. 

I understand your point, but take the best third of any all star player’s stats (his 132 games of 2019 is roughly a third of his games played) out of his resume and see where you land with others.

I’m going to keep going back to the points that Moncada has proven he can do a very high number while Madrigal has not, and if Madrigal is truly a 0 home run hitter that is my issue which isn’t sample size. My worry is 0 home runs. Literally 0. If he hits even 3-5 I will feel TONS better. You really can’t be a very low power hitter in MLB and have enough value without nearly league leading stats in many other categories. 

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17 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

 

I’m going to keep going back to the points that Moncada has proven he can do a very high number while Madrigal has not, and if Madrigal is truly a 0 home run hitter that is my issue which isn’t sample size. My worry is 0 home runs. Literally 0. If he hits even 3-5 I will feel TONS better. You really can’t be a very low power hitter in MLB and have enough value without nearly league leading stats in many other categories. 

I agree with you, although if he can play GG defense and steal 20 bags a year i would be fine with the rest of his offensive game, although more power would be nice too. All these things are possible!

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I’m skeptical of Madrigal’s value and very pro Moncada, because Moncada’s “sample size” is actually 411 games and he has already proven he can produce 4.15 fWAR per 162. There simply isn’t a sample size issue when it comes to evaluating his entire production; Moncada has already proven he is an all star caliber player, albeit a very streaky one.

For those attempting to cherry pick the last 68 games and extrapolate that Moncada is somehow bad now, the answer is no, he’s absolutely not. He’s still very, very good. The set of 2020-21 games being referenced is just cherry picking bad stats due to BABIP being low and perhaps after effects of COVID. 

Moncada’s already proven himself and Madrigal has not. 

How was Moncada after 45 games?

The real comparison is this thread vs. the early Moncada threads that were marked by similarly relentless negativity based on tiny sample sizes.  It's just too early to draw firm conclusions on Madrigal. It's also not all that important, by the way, to put your stake in the ground as early as possible and take a firm position on a message board that you must then defend to the death. We're just fans. Nobody cares.

Edited by 35thstreetswarm
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Just want him to be a gud smol player 

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1 hour ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

How was Moncada after 45 games?

The real comparison is this thread vs. the early Moncada threads that were marked by similarly relentless negativity based on tiny sample sizes.  It's just too early to draw firm conclusions on Madrigal. It's also not all that important, by the way, to put your stake in the ground as early as possible and take a firm position on a message board that you must then defend to the death. We're just fans. Nobody cares.

It's simple scouting if you know what you're looking at and you don't need a certain number of games to scout a player. You evaluate the players tools and those tools translate to on the field production.  It's obviously not perfect (nothing is) but I'll trust what I'm looking at a million times out of a million over some stat projection system.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Talk about apples to oranges.  Moncada is averaging 4 WAR per 162 games before turning 26. Everything is relative.  People expect Moncada to be a star, so far he sorta has, which is the beef, because he was the number one overall prospect.

Nick was billed as a can't miss regular at 2B.  So far he has played like a 1 WAR backup.  The complaints about Nick and Yoan are coming from completely different places and of course the guy who has already put up a star full season will get more leeway.

Through Yoan Moncada's first 62 big league games he played like a back up as well.

Weird.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Just now, Harold's Leg Lift said:

It's simple scouting if you know what you're looking at and you don't need a certain number of games to scout a player. You evaluate the players tools and those tools translate to on the field production.  It's obviously not perfect (nothing is) but I'll trust what I'm looking at a million times out of a million over some stat projection system.

Most people tend to think they're smarter than computers and projection models. Facts will tell you that those people are almost always (99.99999999999%) less accurate over a large enough sample.

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3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Most people tend to think they're smarter than computers and projection models. Facts will tell you that those people are almost always (99.99999999999%) less accurate over a large enough sample.

One in a trillion? Somehow I am doubting your statistic here

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