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Madrigal.

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2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Nicky Lopez has 800 atbats and a sub 600 OPS during that time. Madrigal has shown an ability to hit in the low 300s in his limited sample size.

I hope Madrigal is good.  My point is, his path to be a better-than-average contributor is narrow.  His path to be the kind of impact player you hope to get drafting #4 is tiny.

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3 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Except me and maybe like 2 others. :)

Yea I was open to it but not a complete advocate.

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6 hours ago, Timmy U said:

I hope Madrigal is good.  My point is, his path to be a better-than-average contributor is narrow.  His path to be the kind of impact player you hope to get drafting #4 is tiny.

"Hope" often means nothing. Plenty of 1st rounders become nothing. Nick being what he appears to be would be a success, period. 

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50 minutes ago, RagahRagah said:

"Hope" often means nothing. Plenty of 1st rounders become nothing. Nick being what he appears to be would be a success, period. 

This version of Madrigal would be a disappointment IMO

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1 hour ago, RagahRagah said:

"Hope" often means nothing. Plenty of 1st rounders become nothing. Nick being what he appears to be would be a success, period. 

If this is all Madrigal turns out to be, then that's okay, but the Sox should be open to replacing him with someone better.  Maybe Jose Rodriguez in a couple of years?

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It's amazing how much grace he gets around here.  No, being a 1 WAR player isn't "fine" or "what he was expected to be".  I've praised the guy because he's played well at times but overall he's underwhelming and physically after watching him everyday for 60 or so games now he just doesn't have a lot of ways he can improve.  Defensively there's just not a lot of "there there".  He really needs to hit 320 to be an average starter.  That's going to be hard.  Hope he proves me wrong.

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Posted (edited)

Would someone explain how Fangraphs calculates a positive 2021 0.2 fWAR for Madrigal (as of now), when both his Offensive (-2.0, only Leury is lower) and Defensive (-0.6) ratings are both negative?

When I looked at the glossary, positional adjustment is the primary factor I see which may be the reason.

Also, how does Abreu have a negative defensive rating (-1.0)? Is he being dinged for his positional adjustment (Mercedes is -3.9 as DH), whereas Grandal’s fWAR are goosed upwards (high number of games caught X positional adjustment)?

I’m more familiar with bWAR, and their oWAR + dWAR = bWAR are much more in sync. Use fWAR here because that seems to be the common source here.

Thanks in advance.

 

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's amazing how much grace he gets around here.  No, being a 1 WAR player isn't "fine" or "what he was expected to be".  I've praised the guy because he's played well at times but overall he's underwhelming and physically after watching him everyday for 60 or so games now he just doesn't have a lot of ways he can improve.  Defensively there's just not a lot of "there there".  He really needs to hit 320 to be an average starter.  That's going to be hard.  Hope he proves me wrong.

Maybe he was a tad bit early with his Mr. 3000 proclamation. Not a good look when he's scuffling so hard. 

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51 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Would someone explain how Fangraphs calculates a positive 2021 0.2 fWAR for Madrigal (as of now), when both his Offensive (-2.0, only Leury is lower) and Defensive (-0.6) ratings are both negative?

When I looked at the glossary, positional adjustment is the primary factor I see which may be the reason.

Also, how does Abreu have a negative defensive rating (-1.0)? Is he being dinged for his positional adjustment (Mercedes is -3.9 as DH), whereas Grandal’s fWAR are goosed upwards (high number of games caught X positional adjustment)?

I’m more familiar with bWAR, and their oWAR + dWAR = bWAR are much more in sync. Use fWAR here because that seems to be the common source here.

Thanks in advance.

 

The run values are average, so average players are run neutral, if that makes sense.  Replacement level players are below average and thus run negative.  In the case of a 1 WAR type like Nick you can be below average on runs but still be better than some random AAAA scrub.

As for Jose, it's hard to calculate (and controversial) but Fangraphs has a pretty aggressive "run penalty" for 1B and DHs. It's an adjusted for position run value so being -1 at 1B puts Jose among the very good defensive 1B.

For example, Evan White, who is by every eye test and metric a very good defensive 1B (and a guy that can't hit for more than replacement) is -1.5 runs so far this year defensively.

I personally just use fWAR because I like their defensive values better.  Happens to usually align with my eye test so it feeds my ego, thus I like them, duh.

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3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The run values are average, so average players are run neutral, if that makes sense.  Replacement level players are below average and thus run negative.  In the case of a 1 WAR type like Nick you can be below average on runs but still be better than some random AAAA scrub.

As for Jose, it's hard to calculate (and controversial) but Fangraphs has a pretty aggressive "run penalty" for 1B and DHs. It's an adjusted for position run value so being -1 at 1B puts Jose among the very good defensive 1B.

For example, Evan White, who is by every eye test and metric a very good defensive 1B (and a guy that can't hit for more than replacement) is -1.5 runs so far this year defensively.

I personally just use fWAR because I like their defensive values better.  Happens to usually align with my eye test so it feeds my ego, thus I like them, duh.

Thank you, appreciate your confirmation of what I suspected (positional adjustments).

bWAR appeals more to the math side of my thought process. I wish Baseball Reference would incorporate similar/same defensive metrics, including pitch framing for catchers, though hopefully that becomes moot with automated strike zones. Or do we say mute on SoxTalk. :D

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7 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's amazing how much grace he gets around here.  

This made me laugh

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It's amazing how much grace he gets around here.  No, being a 1 WAR player isn't "fine" or "what he was expected to be".  I've praised the guy because he's played well at times but overall he's underwhelming and physically after watching him everyday for 60 or so games now he just doesn't have a lot of ways he can improve.  Defensively there's just not a lot of "there there".  He really needs to hit 320 to be an average starter. That's going to be hard.  Hope he proves me wrong.

I believe this is possible. I also think it's a ridiculous, arbitrary assertion. 

Contact hitter who never strikes out, works the count and consistently hits over .300 (and apparently plays par defense and will likely improve) and we're gonna put arbitrary rules on what else he has to do to be "worthy" of being a first rounder?

Oh, please. This is bordering on delusion, as if every 1st rounder or even the majority of them end up being stars.

Edited by RagahRagah

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Madrigal isn't very good.  For him to be useful, his OBP needs to be in the 350-380 range because he has 0 power.  

If he gets on base at a 300-330 clip, he's Billy Hamilton and that is a failure at the #4 pick.  

Madrigal has already proven his defense has been average at best and the dude swings at anything.  He needs to pick it up or we'll be looking for a new 2B in a year or two.

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1 minute ago, GGajewski18 said:

Madrigal isn't very good.  For him to be useful, his OBP needs to be in the 350-380 range because he has 0 power.  

If he gets on base at a 300-330 clip, he's Billy Hamilton and that is a failure at the #4 pick.  

Madrigal has already proven his defense has been average at best and the dude swings at anything.  He needs to pick it up or we'll be looking for a new 2B in a year or two.

How much rope did Gordon Beckham receive during a time when we were expected to compete every year?

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2 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Madrigal isn't very good.  For him to be useful, his OBP needs to be in the 350-380 range because he has 0 power.  

If he gets on base at a 300-330 clip, he's Billy Hamilton and that is a failure at the #4 pick.  

Madrigal has already proven his defense has been average at best and the dude swings at anything.  He needs to pick it up or we'll be looking for a new 2B in a year or two.

I really wish they'd have used him as a trade piece before he got to the MLB level. 

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

How much rope did Gordon Beckham receive during a time when we were expected to compete every year?

I could care less about that.  The opportunity is now and Danny Mendick has been outplaying Madrigal.  If there weren't injuries in the OF, Mendick very well could be replacing Madrigal at 2B

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7 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

I could care less about that.  The opportunity is now and Danny Mendick has been outplaying Madrigal.  If there weren't injuries in the OF, Mendick very well could be replacing Madrigal at 2B

It’s going to take a Yermin like run out of Mendick to unseat Madrigal IMO...and TLR envisions him as that complementary glue piece like Eckstein.

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23 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Madrigal isn't very good.  For him to be useful, his OBP needs to be in the 350-380 range because he has 0 power.  

If he gets on base at a 300-330 clip, he's Billy Hamilton and that is a failure at the #4 pick.  

Madrigal has already proven his defense has been average at best and the dude swings at anything.  He needs to pick it up or we'll be looking for a new 2B in a year or two.

Not sure that is a great comparison. Billy Hamilton has a career BA of .240. He strikes out on average once every 5 plate appearances.  Hamilton in his prime was a threat to steal. 

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2 hours ago, RagahRagah said:

I believe this is possible. I also think it's a ridiculous, arbitrary assertion. 

Contact hitter who never strikes out, works the count and consistently hits over .300 (and apparently plays par defense and will likely improve) and we're gonna put arbitrary rules on what else he has to do to be "worthy" of being a first rounder?

Oh, please. This is bordering on delusion, as if every 1st rounder or even the majority of them end up being stars.

He sucks.   Shut up. 

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1 hour ago, GGajewski18 said:

Madrigal isn't very good.  For him to be useful, his OBP needs to be in the 350-380 range because he has 0 power.  

If he gets on base at a 300-330 clip, he's Billy Hamilton and that is a failure at the #4 pick.  

Madrigal has already proven his defense has been average at best and the dude swings at anything.  He needs to pick it up or we'll be looking for a new 2B in a year or two.

Where Madrigal was drafted is completely irrelevant at this juncture.  Madrigal isn't a power hitter.  When this lineup is healthy, it is oozing with power and the last thing they need Nick to do is provide power.  They need him to play good defense, hit .300+ and not strike out.    

Madrigal is struggling a bit the last two weeks, but he is going to be fine.  He just needs to become the best version of Madrigal, not some power hitting 2B or whatever mold fans think they need to get with the #4 overall pick.  

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Where Madrigal was drafted is completely irrelevant at this juncture.  Madrigal isn't a power hitter.  When this lineup is healthy, it is oozing with power and the last thing they need Nick to do is provide power.  They need him to play good defense, hit .300+ and not strike out.    

Madrigal is struggling a bit the last two weeks, but he is going to be fine.  He just needs to become the best version of Madrigal, not some power hitting 2B or whatever mold fans think they need to get with the #4 overall pick.  

People oozing over the "juggernaut" offense they believe we have yet Nick apparently has to be a home run hitter (basically in the 9 hole) otherwise he isn't worthy of being a #1 pick.

Fucking bizarre.

Edited by RagahRagah
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I am fine with Madrigal being a .300 hitter and having zero HR power if he hits combined 30 doubles and triples per 162. I think he’s capable of that, but he hasn’t looked good lately.

I do want to believe he will be good, and I’m willing to give him 200 games of rope to find out, just like we gave Moncada, who took that long to get good. It took Anderson nearly 3 seasons to unlock his true potential. 

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20 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I am fine with Madrigal being a .300 hitter and having zero HR power if he hits combined 30 doubles and triples per 162. I think he’s capable of that, but he hasn’t looked good lately.

I do want to believe he will be good, and I’m willing to give him 200 games of rope to find out, just like we gave Moncada, who took that long to get good. It took Anderson nearly 3 seasons to unlock his true potential. 

Why tho?  I too think Madrigal needs to hit for some XBH rather than just being a pure singles hitter, but picking some arbitrary number as the cut off seems silly.  He is currently on pace for around 35 XBH, and I don't think we've seen the best of him by any means.  The doubles and triples and perhaps occasional homer will come. 

Not directed at you really - but people are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole around here with Madrigal.  He is a unique player.  He just needs to be really good at what he does well.  This lineup has plenty of power - I still feel like he's a fantastic fit for a this team (when its fully healthy especially), and will be for years to come.  We don't need our 9 hitter to hit 20 homers.  

That said, Madrigal has been pretty bad offensively lately so hopefully he snaps out of it soon.   

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