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Greydawgfan1

Madrigal.

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7 hours ago, Perfect Vision said:

I've seen this said many times and I just don't buy it.  I'd put a lineup of 9 Madrigals vs. any lineup in baseball all day long.  On a per game basis, you're looking at at about 12-14 hits, 4-5 walks, and 0 strikeouts.  People don't think that would produce a bunch of runs?

I was curious about the debate so I dusted off the baseball simulator I wrote and simulated the 2019 season (that's what I have data for) assuming every White Sox hitter would hit according to Madrigal's career stats.

FWIW the Chicago Madrigals were last in the league with a runs per game average of 3.52.

I don't think that actually means much in terms of Madrigals value to the actual White Sox. Personally I am of the opinion that his stat line can be very useful in the actual Sox lineup. But it does show that a lineup of 9 Madrigals would not be a successful baseball team. 

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18 minutes ago, fathom said:

Also people hate him more for his terrible defense and choking in pressure situations. 

He was hated way before he made those errors in Oakland

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2 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Juan Pierre’s age has nothing to do with this discussion. His inability to do much more than hit singles and be below average at everything else at that point in his career is absolutely a fair comparison to what we all think is Madrigals floor. Some of you are quite defensive - I’m still optimistic about Madrigal. I will maintain until I’m blue in the face that if he has very low to nonexistent power  he’s a bust as a first rounder. My point is that a singles hitter - even a .300+ singles hitter with a very high OBP - has a low WAR and we have seen that as white Sox fans firsthand. 

His current offensive war pace is four doing exactly that, so you must be incorrect. It’s his defense driving his war down, not his offensive production

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I wish Robert and Vaughn would be playing up to their potential as well as Madrigal has played to his.  

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I wish Robert and Vaughn would be playing up to their potential as well as Madrigal has played to his.  

🤨

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1 hour ago, poppysox said:

I wish Robert and Vaughn would be playing up to their potential as well as Madrigal has played to his.  

Pretty lofty expectations for Luis so far I take it? I've been extremely happy with his progression. Elite CF defense with an .800 OPS is pretty damn valuable, and that's just what he is now. 

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Posted (edited)

MLB.com article

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-players-who-succeed-with-rare-skills

6 Rare Skillsets that get the job done

Quote

The contact machine: Nick Madrigal

 

Strikeout rates have skyrocketed across the sport over the last decade, with teams K-ing an average of 9.4 times per nine innings last season. Well, if every player was Nick Madrigal, clubs would strike out about once per game.

 

Yeah, in his first 56 plate appearances this season, Madrigal has struck out just two times. I miss going from the cereal bowl to my mouth more often than that. It also means that Madrigal is striking out in fewer than 4 percent of his plate appearances. The last time a qualified batter did that in a full season was Tony Gwynn in 1998.

 

But Madrigal doesn't just not strike out. He has such amazing contact skills, it could make you reassess Ted Williams' famous quote about how hitting a round ball with a round bat is the hardest thing to do. Madrigal makes contact on 92 percent of pitches out of the zone -- you know, the ones pitchers use to get whiffs -- and over 96 percent on pitches in the zone.

 

Even better, Madrigal is a career .347/.356/.389 hitter with two strikes on him. That's absurd. Mike Trout is just a .217 hitter with two strikes (though he does have a slightly higher slugging percentage at .398).

 

Perhaps strangest of all: When Madrigal is ahead in the count, his batting line drops to .229/.327/.354. Yeah, somehow he's better when his back is against the wall. I don't get it either

Edited by joesaiditstrue

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The analytics community is split as well, with a wide difference in projected Madrigal performance. Baseball Prospectus,  the sleuths who touted Avery Weems, is most bullish on Madrigal. Fangraphs gives Madrigal the slight edge over the next three seasons. Keep in mind Madrigal is three years younger, and should peak in 2023-2025.

Fangraphs (2020-2023)

  • 2020 and YTD 2021 Production: Mendick fWAR 0.6 (135 PA) vs. Madrigal fWAR 0.2 (169 PA)
  • Projected ZIPS fWAR 2021, 2022, 2023: Mendick 1.6; 1.5; 1.5 vs. Madrigal 1.7; 1.9; 2.1

Baseball Reference / Marcel (2020 - 2021)

  • 2020 and YTD 2021 Production: Mendick bWAR 1.1 (135 PA) vs. Madrigal bWAR 0.5 (169 PA)
  • Projected 2021: Madrigal: 347 AB .281/.347/.415  Mendick: 358 AB .246/.310/.409

Baseball Prospectus / PECOTA (2020-2021)

  • 2020 Production: Mendick bWAR 0.4 (114 PA) vs. Madrigal WARP 0.4 (112 PA)
  • Projected 2021: Madrigal: 2.3 WARP (481 PA)  Mendick: 0.2 WARP (128 PA - or 0.8 WARP with the equivalent PAs)

I wouldn't expect any power beyond legging out singles and a few gap shots, unless he sacrifices his claim to fame contact rate.

Nick Madrigal's six ML Extra Base Hits (Average 91.8 MPH; 195.5 Feet):

  • 4/19 Triple: 98.4 MPH; 279 Feet
  • 4/18 Double: 97.8 MPH; 108 Feet
  • 4/7 Double: 87.4 MPH; 55 Feet
  • 9/18 Double: 77.3 MPH; 128 Feet
  • 9/8 Double: 91.6 MPH; 252 Feet
  • 9/8 Double: 98.1 MPH; 351 Feet

 

 

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, poppysox said:

I wish Robert and Vaughn would be playing up to their potential as well as Madrigal has played to his.  

How does this post have two likes? Lol

Robert is on pace for 7.2 WAR and has a wRC+ of 139 and this guy is being critical of how he's performed. Amazing.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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21 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

The analytics community is split as well, with a wide difference in projected Madrigal performance. Baseball Prospectus,  the sleuths who touted Avery Weems, is most bullish on Madrigal. Fangraphs gives Madrigal the slight edge over the next three seasons. Keep in mind Madrigal is three years younger, and should peak in 2023-2025.

Fangraphs (2020-2023)

  • 2020 and YTD 2021 Production: Mendick fWAR 0.6 (135 PA) vs. Madrigal fWAR 0.2 (169 PA)
  • Projected ZIPS fWAR 2021, 2022, 2023: Mendick 1.6; 1.5; 1.5 vs. Madrigal 1.7; 1.9; 2.1

Baseball Reference / Marcel (2020 - 2021)

  • 2020 and YTD 2021 Production: Mendick bWAR 1.1 (135 PA) vs. Madrigal bWAR 0.5 (169 PA)
  • Projected 2021: Madrigal: 347 AB .281/.347/.415  Mendick: 358 AB .246/.310/.409

Baseball Prospectus / PECOTA (2020-2021)

  • 2020 Production: Mendick bWAR 0.4 (114 PA) vs. Madrigal WARP 0.4 (112 PA)
  • Projected 2021: Madrigal: 2.3 WARP (481 PA)  Mendick: 0.2 WARP (128 PA - or 0.8 WARP with the equivalent PAs)

I wouldn't expect any power beyond legging out singles and a few gap shots, unless he sacrifices his claim to fame contact rate.

Nick Madrigal's six ML Extra Base Hits (Average 91.8 MPH; 195.5 Feet):

  • 4/19 Triple: 98.4 MPH; 279 Feet
  • 4/18 Double: 97.8 MPH; 108 Feet
  • 4/7 Double: 87.4 MPH; 55 Feet
  • 9/18 Double: 77.3 MPH; 128 Feet
  • 9/8 Double: 91.6 MPH; 252 Feet
  • 9/8 Double: 98.1 MPH; 351 Feet

 

 

Madrigal had surgery this past off season. Very unlikely he was able to put on much muscle. There's zero reason Madrigal can't make the following adjustments to increase his production:

1. Learn to attack hitters pitches and let pitchers pitches go by prior to two strikes. Right now he's too swing happy early in the count for a guy with elite contact skills.

2. Put on a little extra muscle and turn those balls in the gap into doubles instead of singles.

This entire narrative that he won't get any better like most players do is complete nonsense imo.

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30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Madrigal had surgery this past off season. Very unlikely he was able to put on much muscle. There's zero reason Madrigal can't make the following adjustments to increase his production:

1. Learn to attack hitters pitches and let pitchers pitches go by prior to two strikes. Right now he's too swing happy early in the count for a guy with elite contact skills.

2. Put on a little extra muscle and turn those balls in the gap into doubles instead of singles.

This entire narrative that he won't get any better like most players do is complete nonsense imo.

He had surgery because the dumb ass ran through the third base coach's stop sign and injured himself sliding into the out. Tony is committed to playing his dumbass everyday, despite the fact Mendick is a better player now, because he reminds him of his favorite lollipop guild player from decades ago.  

The ever growing list of Madrigal excuses for his continued stupid and sloppy fielding, throwing and baserunning is at least twice as tall as his frame. Doubt we'll see Tony bench Madrigal for "bad vibes", regardless of how many times he fucks up.

 giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He had surgery because the dumb ass ran through the third base coach's stop sign and injured himself sliding into the out. Tony is committed to playing his dumbass everyday, despite the fact Mendick is a better player now, because he reminds him of his favorite lollipop guild player from decades ago.  

The ever growing list of Madrigal excuses for his continued stupid and sloppy fielding, throwing and baserunning is at least twice as tall as his frame. Doubt we'll see Tony bench Madrigal for "bad vibes", regardless of how many times he fucks up.

 giphy.gif

This is personal for you, eh?  Wowzers.  

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54 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How does this post have two likes? Lol

Robert is on pace for 7.2 WAR and has a wRC+ of 139 and this guy is being critical of how he's performed. Amazing.

In the last week both Robert and Vaughn are much improved...now I need to work on Moncada.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

How does this post have two likes? Lol

Robert is on pace for 7.2 WAR and has a wRC+ of 139 and this guy is being critical of how he's performed. Amazing.

Because he has zero home runs. We were promised 30/30 potential and he's clearly not delivering.

/g

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.2 fWAR in 47 games.  That's awful and it is because he is literally one of the worst 2B in baseball over that period with the glove.  We see that on a near daily basis play out for the pitching staff.

He needs to figure it out or he's a 1 WAR player, aka a career backup.

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11 minutes ago, poppysox said:

In the last week both Robert and Vaughn are much improved...now I need to work on Moncada.

Robert has four games this year without a hit. 

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6 minutes ago, MiddleCoastBias said:

Because he has zero home runs. We were promised 30/30 potential and he's clearly not delivering.

/g

Top 12 in baseball in barrels. He does have a homer, but should probably have a couple more. I think you were being sarcastic anyway, just wanted to clarify, 

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Top 12 in baseball in barrels. He does have a homer, but should probably have a couple more. I think you were being sarcastic anyway, just wanted to clarify, 

the /g means green, which if I'm not mistaken means sarcasm. IDK if that's an internet thing or a Soxtalk thing. 

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25 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He had surgery because the dumb ass ran through the third base coach's stop sign and injured himself sliding into the out. Tony is committed to playing his dumbass everyday, despite the fact Mendick is a better player now, because he reminds him of his favorite lollipop guild player from decades ago.  

The ever growing list of Madrigal excuses for his continued stupid and sloppy fielding, throwing and baserunning is at least twice as tall as his frame. Doubt we'll see Tony bench Madrigal for "bad vibes", regardless of how many times he fucks up.

 giphy.gif

Is that you, Mr Mendick?

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Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Top 12 in baseball in barrels. He does have a homer, but should probably have a couple more. I think you were being sarcastic anyway, just wanted to clarify, 

Yep, that's the /g (green, sarcasm)

But it's telling that there are likely fans that just look at the old numbers (avg, HRs, RBIs) and missed his last week that this could be mistaken for a real complaint.

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29 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

He had surgery because the dumb ass ran through the third base coach's stop sign and injured himself sliding into the out. Tony is committed to playing his dumbass everyday, despite the fact Mendick is a better player now, because he reminds him of his favorite lollipop guild player from decades ago.  

The ever growing list of Madrigal excuses for his continued stupid and sloppy fielding, throwing and baserunning is at least twice as tall as his frame. Doubt we'll see Tony bench Madrigal for "bad vibes", regardless of how many times he fucks up.

 giphy.gif

Horrible post.

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20 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

This is personal for you, eh?  Wowzers.  

It's starting to get personal with his teammates, with everyone shouldering the blame and or having to work extra to bail him out. His error was a major factor in the Sox' loss to Oakland. Mercedes benched yesterday because Nick can't throw a ball 40 feet, Rodon and others having to work through extra batters because of him and Grandal, another SoxTalk darling before he was exposed.

Never faces any lost playing time or consequences. If people are going to continue to make excuses for his play as though he is a five year old who will "get better", than let him wear it.

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9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Is that you, Mr Mendick?

From all accounts Mendick is a humble, stand up guy. I wouldn't lump him in this mess. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, South Side Hit Men said:

It's starting to get personal with his teammates, with everyone shouldering the blame and or having to work extra to bail him out. His error was a major factor in the Sox' loss to Oakland. Mercedes benched yesterday because Nick can't throw a ball 40 feet, Rodon and others having to work through extra batters because of him and Grandal, another SoxTalk darling before he was exposed.

Never faces any lost playing time or consequences. If people are going to continue to make excuses for his play as though he is a five year old who will "get better", than let him wear it.

Mercedes was taken out of the game due to an injury, but please carry on with the narrative that best suits your anger. And no, people think he will "get better" because he's 24 years old and has played a whopping 45 big league games. What a novel theory!

He has a 107 OPS+, which is why he continues to play and not face "consequences" because you typically want a guy who is better than league average with the bat in the lineup batting 9th. Another novel theory.

14 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

From all accounts Mendick is a humble, stand up guy. I wouldn't lump him in this mess. 

I was thinking he might have been Danny's dad, not Danny himself.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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I've said it before and I'll say it again. 

If Nick was a 7th round pick and not the 4th overall selection but everything else stayed exactly the same.......95% of fans are OK with Nick. 

Might not be fair, but I believe it to be the truth. 

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