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Dominikk85

Playoff odds

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Posted (edited)

The white sox did not have a dazzling start at 11-9 (89 win pace) but still they have one or the most improved outlooks compared to pre season due to the bad starts of the twins and Indians. 

Preseason playoff odds were 48% with 32% to win division, now they are up to 64% with 52% to win the division. 

 

Really in the first 30 games it is not about winning the season but about not losing it, as long you are around or above 500 after 20 games you are usually in decent shape unless you are in a juggernaut division. 

Overall it worked out pretty well for the Sox despite the wasted games due to bullpen implosions. 

The twins and Indians however are already in a little hole, nothing that can't be recovered but you have to make up those 3 to 4 games first. 

I know the Royals are first but not worried at all about them, they are not ready to compete yet. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Edited by Dominikk85

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2 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

The white sox did not have a dazzling start at 11-9 (89 win pace) but still they have one or the most improved outlooks compared to pre season due to the bad starts of the twins and Indians. 

Preseason playoff odds were 48% with 32% to win division, now they are up to 64% with 52% to win the division. 

 

Really in the first 30 games it is not about winning the season but about not losing it, as long you are around or above 500 after 20 games you are usually in decent shape unless you are in a juggernaut division. 

Overall it worked out pretty well for the Sox despite the wasted games due to bullpen implosions. 

The twins and Indians however are already in a little hole, nothing that can't be recovered but you have to make up those 3 to 4 games first. 

I know the Royals are first but not worried at all about them, they are not ready to compete yet. 

The Twins will be much better when they can get everyone back in the lineup.  Have had quite a falloff from Kepler/Rosario to guys like Cave and now Kiriloff is up and will likely scuffle.

You can easily put their top 4 guys against our on offense (when healthy), but their bullpen has been even leakier, along with the defense.

2-3 years ago, guys like Polanco and Garver were world-beaters.  Recently, not so much.

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1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

The Twins will be much better when they can get everyone back in the lineup.  Have had quite a falloff from Kepler/Rosario to guys like Cave and now Kiriloff is up and will likely scuffle.

You can easily put their top 4 guys against our on offense (when healthy), but their bullpen has been even leakier, along with the defense.

2-3 years ago, guys like Polanco and Garver were world-beaters.  Recently, not so much.

Cruz is also on steroids, likely sharing some of them with Buxton

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I didn't realize the preseason odds of postseason were under 50%.  That's interesting considering many here would be looking for heads to roll if the Sox don't make the postseason this year....me included.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, reiks12 said:

Cruz is also on steroids, likely sharing some of them with Buxton

He gained 15 pounds of muscle this season...after wearing down in second halves of seasons, or derailed by injuries.

I tend to go with scouts who ranked him the #1 overall prospect at 170 pounds versus unfounded internet speculation or “guilt by association.”

And that doesn’t explain why Garver, Polanco and Kepler have fallen off so much, if Cruz is getting away with it somehow this whole time.

Edited by caulfield12
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3 hours ago, wegner said:

I didn't realize the preseason odds of postseason were under 50%.  That's interesting considering many here would be looking for heads to roll if the Sox don't make the postseason this year....me included.

Fangraphs has them at 66.9% (noice) after today's win.  Sounds about right.

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The Sox have played to date at a pace of 92 or 93 wins over a 162 season probably enough to win the division.  Considering everything that went wrong and all the underachieving things are looking good.

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Fangraphs has them at 66.9% (noice) after today's win.  Sounds about right.

2 years in a row and hopefully at least a few more.

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Am I the only one finding enjoyment in the Twinkies 7-13 start?? Just lost a series to the lowly Pirates at home lol

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Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Am I the only one finding enjoyment in the Twinkies 7-13 start?? Just lost a series to the lowly Pirates at home lol

The Pirates actually aren't that bad despite dealing Bell, Musgrove and Taillon.  And KeBryan Hayes (Charlie's son) was supposed to be one of their best players entering the season, but hasn't played yet due to injury.

So Pittsburgh will give a lot of teams problems.  Partially just because almost every team is underestimating them.

 

That said, beating up on the Tigers and an Indians' team hitting barely above the Mendoza Line doesn't re-transform us suddenly into World Series favorites or anything like that.

However, the Kopech outings have been quite impressive, and he'll likely be 96-99 instead of 95-97, touching 98, as the weather warms up and he keeps going out there and pitching every 4-5 days with higher and higher pitch counts.

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3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

The Pirates actually aren't that bad despite dealing Bell, Musgrove and Taillon.  And KeBryan Hayes (Charlie's son) was supposed to be one of their best players entering the season, but hasn't played yet due to injury.

So Pittsburgh will give a lot of teams problems.  Partially just because almost every team is underestimating them.

 

That said, beating up on the Tigers and an Indians' team hitting barely above the Mendoza Line doesn't re-transform us suddenly into World Series favorites or anything like that.

However, the Kopech outings have been quite impressive, and he'll likely be 96-99 instead of 95-97, touching 98, as the weather warms up and he keeps going out there and pitching every 4-5 days with higher and higher pitch counts.

The Pirates are terrible. They're every bit as bad as people think. Not sure what your second point means. Sox haven't played the Tigers once this year.

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1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

The Pirates actually aren't that bad despite dealing Bell, Musgrove and Taillon.  And KeBryan Hayes (Charlie's son) was supposed to be one of their best players entering the season, but hasn't played yet due to injury.

So Pittsburgh will give a lot of teams problems.  Partially just because almost every team is underestimating them.

 

That said, beating up on the Tigers and an Indians' team hitting barely above the Mendoza Line doesn't re-transform us suddenly into World Series favorites or anything like that.

However, the Kopech outings have been quite impressive, and he'll likely be 96-99 instead of 95-97, touching 98, as the weather warms up and he keeps going out there and pitching every 4-5 days with higher and higher pitch counts.

Huh? The Sox haven’t played the Tigers yet. The Sox are 11-6 since that rough opening series including taking a series in Seattle (Seattle’s only series loss so far this season) and splitting with the Red Sox in Fenway. The Sox have the best run differential in the AL. Nothing has changed over the course of the first month of the season that should lead you to believe this team is anything other than a top 3 team in the AL and World Series contender. They certainly look like more of a contender than your Padres (team leading MLB in errors).

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Huh? The Sox haven’t played the Tigers yet. The Sox are 11-6 since that rough opening series including taking a series in Seattle (Seattle’s only series loss so far this season) and splitting with the Red Sox in Fenway. The Sox have the best run differential in the AL. Nothing has changed over the course of the first month of the season that should lead you to believe this team is anything other than a top 3 team in the AL and World Series contender. They certainly look like more of a contender than your Padres (team leading MLB in errors).

Between the White Sox and the Padres; one of their SS's has zero errors on the season, while the other teams SS has 9 errors in 16 games. TA74MVP

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Between the White Sox and the Padres; one of their SS's has zero errors on the season, while the error teams SS has 9 errors in 16 games. TA74MVP

Yup. Gimme TA all day. He’s the heart and soul of this team. There’s no question he’s the most valuable player on this team. They’re just not the same without him.

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Between the White Sox and the Padres; one of their SS's has zero errors on the season, while the other teams SS has 9 errors in 16 games. TA74MVP

Or 5 homers in two and a half games against Kershaw, Bauer and May, as well as Buehler last weekend.

But you make a very good point. 

Is TA really going to be paid like Lindor/Tatis/Seager/Correa by the White Sox starting in his age 31/32 season in 2025?

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29 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or 5 homers in two and a half games against Kershaw, Bauer and May, as well as Buehler last weekend.

But you make a very good point. 

Is TA really going to be paid like Lindor/Tatis/Seager/Correa by the White Sox starting in his age 31/32 season in 2025?

Who knows. All I know is that the Padres have committed huge sums of money to several players for many years to come, have a 2021 team payroll $43M higher than the Sox, and are about to be 12-12 after 24 games.  

While everyone was gushing about the Padres last winter, the Sox quietly shored up their pitching staff to what now appears to be a top 5 staff in MLB and addressed their two biggest weaknesses within the everyday lineup - RF and DH - further strengthening their offense, which was already ranked #1 in MLB last season. But go ahead and keep telling everyone why the Sox aren’t World Series contenders while the Padres are :)

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49 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or 5 homers in two and a half games against Kershaw, Bauer and May, as well as Buehler last weekend.

But you make a very good point. 

Is TA really going to be paid like Lindor/Tatis/Seager/Correa by the White Sox starting in his age 31/32 season in 2025?

All of Tatis' homers have come against the Tigers, so they don't count.

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Here's a question to ponder...is TA among top 5 SS in MLB today?

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9 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Who knows. All I know is that the Padres have committed huge sums of money to several players for many years to come, have a 2021 team payroll $43M higher than the Sox, and are about to be 12-12 after 24 games.  

While everyone was gushing about the Padres last winter, the Sox quietly shored up their pitching staff to what now appears to be a top 5 staff in MLB and addressed their two biggest weaknesses within the everyday lineup - RF and DH - further strengthening their offense, which was already ranked #1 in MLB last season. But go ahead and keep telling everyone why the Sox aren’t World Series contenders while the Padres are :)

 

 

2 minutes ago, Quin said:

All of Tatis' homers have come against the Tigers, so they don't count.

Therein lies the question...can the White Sox put up those performances on the biggest stage?

Right now, there's no dominant AL team.  If someone says the A's, that's kind of the point. The Yankees would need a 100% healthy Severino, Kluber, Taillon, along with Voit.

Meanwhile, the four best teams in the NL (Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Braves) are going to push each other to the limit.

 

Statistically, nobody would argue that the White Sox have a much easier path to the post-season and World Series, but actually doing it is another thing altogether.

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes.

Top 3?

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19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 

 

Therein lies the question...can the White Sox put up those performances on the biggest stage?

Right now, there's no dominant AL team.  If someone says the A's, that's kind of the point. The Yankees would need a 100% healthy Severino, Kluber, Taillon, along with Voit.

Meanwhile, the four best teams in the NL (Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Braves) are going to push each other to the limit.

 

Statistically, nobody would argue that the White Sox have a much easier path to the post-season and World Series, but actually doing it is another thing altogether.

Mets Padres and Braves are not better than the White Sox

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As we sit here today, its hard not to like the WS to emerge in the AL just based on pitching alone. Between Kopech, Rodon, Lynn and Gio... good luck. On a given night, Keuchel and Cease can also make you look bad and I'm confident the BP will live up to its billing. 

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6 minutes ago, Flash said:

As we sit here today, its hard not to like the WS to emerge in the AL just based on pitching alone. Between Kopech, Rodon, Lynn and Gio... good luck. On a given night, Keuchel and Cease can also make you look bad and I'm confident the BP will live up to its billing. 

Bullpen will likely be very attainable at the trade deadline too. Can typically shore it up at not too steep of a cost. 

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18 minutes ago, Flash said:

As we sit here today, its hard not to like the WS to emerge in the AL just based on pitching alone. Between Kopech, Rodon, Lynn and Gio... good luck. On a given night, Keuchel and Cease can also make you look bad and I'm confident the BP will live up to its billing. 

I feel like we said this in 2003, 2006, 2008 (before Quentin went down), 2010, 2012, 2016...

We've got a long ways to go, we swept the Rangers, but the Twins and Indians are just too proud to lie down and die like many are assuming.

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