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Dominikk85

Playoff odds

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4 hours ago, Dominikk85 said:

Sox situation looking really good, after starting 6-8 (which interestingly still improved their playoff odds due to twins terrible start) they went 7-3 their last 10 and are now on pace for 93 wins (pre season projected for about 88 wins). 

Playoff odds are now up to 70% and 59% to win division. 

Surprising part was really the back of the rotation where there looked to be a big drop off after gio, Lynn and keuchel but despite gio and keuchel even being a bit weaker than expected rodon and cease stepped up and kopech is looking really good too. 

With 19 games against the Twins left, we basically control our own fate.  If we play them tough, we could make things very challenging for them.  I really hope we can somehow go 4-2 in these upcoming two series against them and push the Twins even further behind us.

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Just now, caulfield12 said:

 

Gold Gloves are based on reputation, highlights, offense (ironic, see Jeter)...if you can throw 92-98 mph with a full running start in the outfield, no doubt there would be a year when someone like Eaton or even Avi Garcia could make a run at an award like that.

However, if you can play SS, you can certainly play any position on the field, except catcher.

And there had/have been conversations for years now about Tim Anderson being a great candidate for CF before Robert came along...especially when he commits a flurry of errors over a short stretch.

Avi did throw that hard from the OF and he didn't come close to winning a damn gold glove.

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1 minute ago, Quin said:

Avi did throw that hard from the OF and he didn't come close to winning a damn gold glove.

The point is, racking up a ton of outfield assists really boosts your defensive numbers and brings more attention to your performance in general.  Self fulfilling prophecy.

Eaton wouldn’t have fetched the haul he did after 2016 with his CF metrics...his slew of assists boosted him into another stratosphere that offseason. 

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What are our odds without Robert now? A 4-5 WAR player replaced by the likes of BIlly Hamilton? Twins will bounce back. Indians are the Indians and will always be in games. Tony fucking Larussa. 

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Posted (edited)

The playoff odds are going to dramatically decrease if we keep averaging basically one game surrendered every week due to our manager.

The Royals, Indians and Twins are at least good enough to overcome that much.

 

Because Matheny, Francona and Baldelli will soon enough figure out some solutions for their teams, particularly the Indians and Twins.  The Royals are still basically 18 months out ahead of their next wave of prospects and making do with a mix of castoff veterans (Taylor/Santana/Benintendi, etc.)

We might be able to diagnose the problem, but is TLR willing to be flexible enough to adapt to the modern era?  He keeps apologizing for not doing his job well enough, but when is he going to start changing his approach?

 

Edited by caulfield12
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On 4/26/2021 at 7:28 AM, caulfield12 said:

Fans need to stop putting the cart before the horse.  It seems many are already dismissing the Twins when many of their losses have been just as fluky or even more inexplicable than ours.
 

When we go 12-7 or 13-6 against them consupistently, then we will have turned a corner.    The point is that we SHOULD be expected to beat a team with a sub $50 million payroll.

Exactly. Basically putting their odds to a coin flip when they are in a meh division and struggle to beat the teams in that division doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

That said, the rotation is starting to look like fire. That's encouraging. Unfortunately, we all know not just one aspect of play can determine how good they can be. Between defense, bullpen and inconsistent offense there are a ton of question marks with us, too.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/26/2021 at 7:28 AM, caulfield12 said:

Fans need to stop putting the cart before the horse.  It seems many are already dismissing the Twins when many of their losses have been just as fluky or even more inexplicable than ours.
 

When we go 12-7 or 13-6 against them consupistently, then we will have turned a corner.    The point is that we SHOULD be expected to beat a team with a sub $50 million payroll.

Exactly. Basically putting their odds to a coin flip when they are in a meh division and struggle to beat the teams in that division doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

That said, the rotation is starting to look like fire. That's encouraging. Unfortunately, we all know not just one aspect of play can determine how good they can be. Between defense, bullpen and inconsistent offense there are a ton of question marks with us, too. Not to mention our seemingly endless key injuries.

Edited by RagahRagah

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On 5/2/2021 at 9:59 AM, fathom said:

There’s been one game this year where they had just no shot to win (Giolito early start time).  Besides that, they’ve been in every game.

That's what playing all the games is about.  We will have hot hitters and slumping hitters.  Pitchers throwing lights out and pitchers crap themselves.  We blow some games and we get handed an undeserved win.  Guys get hurt but someone gets a chance to play and shines.  After 162 games we win enough games to qualify for the playoffs.  Hopefully three or four starters are pitching really well and everybody is healed up and on a hot streak.  We breeze through the playoffs and win the WS.  We brag to our Cubs friends and talk trash.  Start the whole process again in 2022.🙂

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The playoff odds are going to dramatically decrease if we keep averaging basically one game surrendered every week due to our manager.

The Royals, Indians and Twins are at least good enough to overcome that much.

 

Because Matheny, Francona and Baldelli will soon enough figure out some solutions for their teams, particularly the Indians and Twins.  The Royals are still basically 18 months out ahead of their next wave of prospects and making do with a mix of castoff veterans (Taylor/Santana/Benintendi, etc.)

We might be able to diagnose the problem, but is TLR willing to be flexible enough to adapt to the modern era?  He keeps apologizing for not doing his job well enough, but when is he going to start changing his approach?

 

Some of what you mentioned here are those types of intangibles that stats don't take into account. The more things happen like that the more the stats will... (shocker!) change.

I'm a stat nut and they are super important but if that is literally all you are going off of and put your entire hopes of playoff chances on some percentage chart you're a fool.

Edited by RagahRagah

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Twins fall to 11-19 after losing to Texas in extras. They are now 0-7 in extra inning games.

Indians about to sweep KC in a 4 game series. I believe KC's bullpen blew 2, maybe 3 games in the series.

My bet is on Cleveland to be the Sox biggest threat to win the Central.  They have 3 really good starters in Bieber, Plesac, and Civale. A dynamite back end of the bullpen.  Their lineup is not good but they've been scoring a lot of late runs and Ramirez is playing at an MVP level. Also, they might have the best manager in the AL. They're just a huge pain in the ass and I expect them to stay in this thing for the majority of the season.

The Sox are by far the more talented team but injuries, bullpen, and poor managing have hurt us in the early going. 

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Twins got quite a hole to dig out of.  They need to go 34-26 in their next 60 games just to get to .500.  They aren't dead yet, but without great pitching its going to be tough.

Oh, and it looked like Buxton tweaked a hammy in the 9th today.  

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Lets not kid ourselves, the Twins are going to go on a massive run sometime this season and get back into it. I do love these meltdowns however

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Twins got quite a hole to dig out of.  They need to go 34-26 in their next 60 games just to get to .500.  They aren't dead yet, but without great pitching its going to be tough.

Oh, and it looked like Buxton tweaked a hammy in the 9th today.  

Buxton got a flexor strain, just like Robert. Looks like Buxton got best case scenario where of course Robert got the worst case scenario.

51 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Lets not kid ourselves, the Twins are going to go on a massive run sometime this season and get back into it. I do love these meltdowns however

Seems like they always do.

Edited by raBBit
EDIT: best/worst

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39 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

Lets not kid ourselves, the Twins are going to go on a massive run sometime this season and get back into it. I do love these meltdowns however

They have way too much talent to be this bad. 

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16 minutes ago, raBBit said:

Buxton got a flexor strain, just like Robert. Looks like Buxton got worst case scenario where of course Robert got the worst case scenario.

Seems like they always do.

For real?  Buxton is out 12-16 weeks?

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13 minutes ago, chw42 said:

They have way too much talent to be this bad. 

Maybe. They have definitely had a rash of injuries on offense. Their bullpen is extremely suspect though. Their rotation was never scary. Maeda has struggled and he'll pitch better the rest of the year but all of Berrios/Pineda/Happ have been pitching well above career norms. Shoemaker has been a disaster and they sent down Dobnak. There's not much behind them.

10 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

For real?  Buxton is out 12-16 weeks?

I edited it.

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5 hours ago, raBBit said:

Maybe. They have definitely had a rash of injuries on offense. Their bullpen is extremely suspect though. Their rotation was never scary. Maeda has struggled and he'll pitch better the rest of the year but all of Berrios/Pineda/Happ have been pitching well above career norms. Shoemaker has been a disaster and they sent down Dobnak. There's not much behind them.

I edited it.

Pineda was something like 16-1 (in those games started for team) following a loss since they brought him in...yesterday, even that trend didn't hold up.  Happ will definitely get exposed during the heat of the summer outdoors.

They really miss the vertain certainty of Odorizzi, Gibson and Rich Hill.

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At 4.4% odds to win the World Series, Sox are very close to that all important 5% threshold that defines whether a contending team should be all-inclusive or not, especially with Jimenez and 50/50 Robert returning the final 6-8 weeks. 

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Despite being #1 in run differential, the analytics sites are not bullish on the rest of the season for the Sox.

Fangraphs predicts a winning % for the rest of the season of only .526, only 11th best in MLB, winning the division by 4 games with 87 wins.

BP predicts a winning % for the rest of the season of only .500, finishing 3rd in the division behind CLE and MIN, 1 game behind the 2nd WC.

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1 hour ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Despite being #1 in run differential, the analytics sites are not bullish on the rest of the season for the Sox.

Fangraphs predicts a winning % for the rest of the season of only .526, only 11th best in MLB, winning the division by 4 games with 87 wins.

BP predicts a winning % for the rest of the season of only .500, finishing 3rd in the division behind CLE and MIN, 1 game behind the 2nd WC.

What kind of a tear do they have the Twins going on without Buxton?  I don't see that happening.

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8 minutes ago, wegner said:

What kind of a tear do they have the Twins going on without Buxton?  I don't see that happening.

I had the Twins winning 93 games this year. This start has probably dropped them at least 4 games. Their upcoming schedule won't do them too many favors either.

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3 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

I had the Twins winning 93 games this year. This start has probably dropped them at least 4 games. Their upcoming schedule won't do them too many favors either.

Losing three starters from last year, and Maeda looking more like a fifth than a Cy Young candidate decimates that team.

Then you have the back end of the bullpen issues and the Twins don't have a lot of depth in that area at St. Paul.

Berrios is their only true TOR, and he's likely to be traded this summer at peak value instead of them waiting one more year behind Donaldson (and Cruz, who might not even be around.)

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