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Dominikk85

Sox rotation so far

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Really the surprise of the year. Their top3 looked good but after that it was pretty questionable but so far the rotation has been lights out, and the back of the rotation even outperformed the top. 

 

Rank in AL 

War 1st

ERA+ 1st

K-bb% 3rd

Fip 1st

IP 6th (would be second without all the rain outs) 

Rotation is good and going deep into games. 

Good start for Katz, now he just needs to get the pen back on track (9th in ERA but 5th in fip) 

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Kopech, Cease and Rodon looking solid/much improved this year. 

A rotation potentially consisting of ceiling level Gio/Kopech/Cease/Rodon would be something really special, maybe even enough to overcome all the stupid hurdles we are dealing with right now.

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The rotation always had an insane ceiling. I just don't think anyone actually believed it would work out that way. 

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Gio just needs to get it together. Honestly...could Sox dangle Keuchel for a similar over priced outfielder to a team in need of pitching at the deadline? I know that isn't ideal, but Kopech will be in the rotation late summer and never losing his spot. And I would rather the Sox spend 30-40 mil for 2 more years of Lynn over Keuchel. 

August rotation:
Gio
Lynn
Rodon
Kopech
Cease

2022 rotation
Gio
Kopech
Lynn
Cease
Lefty FA (Rodon obviously if price is right) until Crochet is ready in the fall /2023

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Kopech not being in the rotation isn't a matter of being blocked--it's a matter of wanting to limit his innings in 2021. He'll very likely be a starter in 2022, but he's not going to take a regular rotation spot this year.

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Just now, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Kopech not being in the rotation isn't a matter of being blocked--it's a matter of wanting to limit his innings in 2021. He'll very likely be a starter in 2022, but he's not going to take a regular rotation spot this year.

He most definitely will in the playoffs. 

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2 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

could Sox dangle Keuchel for a similar over priced outfielder to a team in need of pitching at the deadline?

Thats kind of shady, i doubt we do that. Its also good to have SP depth in case one of our guys goes down (likely)

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24 minutes ago, EloyJenkins said:

Gio just needs to get it together. Honestly...could Sox dangle Keuchel for a similar over priced outfielder to a team in need of pitching at the deadline? I know that isn't ideal, but Kopech will be in the rotation late summer and never losing his spot. And I would rather the Sox spend 30-40 mil for 2 more years of Lynn over Keuchel. 

August rotation:
Gio
Lynn
Rodon
Kopech
Cease

2022 rotation
Gio
Kopech
Lynn
Cease
Lefty FA (Rodon obviously if price is right) until Crochet is ready in the fall /2023

This is honestly an interesting thought IFFFF IF IF Rodon continues to shine and Cease continues to show promise AND Kopech being stretched out to 5. 

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1 hour ago, mqr said:

The rotation always had an insane ceiling. I just don't think anyone actually believed it would work out that way. 

tbh I still don't. All of them starting off hot is certainly better than the alternative, but its May 5th. In 2016 Mat Latos was 4-0 with an ERA below 2 at this point. I hope they all keep it rolling and Katz turns out to be the best pitching coach ever (for SPs anyway) but it is WAY too early to be talking about trades or who is being replaced by Kopech, etc.

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14 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

tbh I still don't. All of them starting off hot is certainly better than the alternative, but its May 5th. In 2016 Mat Latos was 4-0 with an ERA below 2 at this point. I hope they all keep it rolling and Katz turns out to be the best pitching coach ever (for SPs anyway) but it is WAY too early to be talking about trades or who is being replaced by Kopech, etc.

Everybody knew Latos' performance was smoke and mirrors. His peripherals were garbage. Nobody in our rotation is comparable to him. Maybe Keuchel, but he's our 5th pitcher, so who cares?

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1 hour ago, WhiteSoxFan1993 said:

Kopech not being in the rotation isn't a matter of being blocked--it's a matter of wanting to limit his innings in 2021. He'll very likely be a starter in 2022, but he's not going to take a regular rotation spot this year.

I think the Sox are trying to get more innings for him on the fly and build up his arm to be a starter this year. I think he becomes a starter near the end of the season and definitely in the playoffs...which hopefully we are part of.

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I said it in the offseason, but the amount of low hanging fruit under Cooper was incredible and just getting any modern pitching coach in place would likely to pay major dividends.  Obviously there is more than just that with Rodon, but it’s clear as day Don was holding us back in recent years.

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Overall, the rotation has looked good.  Giolito has been good, even great in spots, but he's been let down by his offense and manager.  Lynn is a horse and has been as good as we expected.  Keuchel looked great today but has been spotty.  Cease and Rodon are the big surprises.  Both are pitching very well, especially Cease lately.  Kopech in his spot starts has been lights out and has been lights out in relief appearances, too.

It will be interesting come August and beyond (playoffs?).  If all six guys are still here, they have a lot to work with.

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15 hours ago, hogan873 said:

Overall, the rotation has looked good.  Giolito has been good, even great in spots, but he's been let down by his offense and manager.  Lynn is a horse and has been as good as we expected.  Keuchel looked great today but has been spotty.  Cease and Rodon are the big surprises.  Both are pitching very well, especially Cease lately.  Kopech in his spot starts has been lights out and has been lights out in relief appearances, too.

It will be interesting come August and beyond (playoffs?).  If all six guys are still here, they have a lot to work with.

I agree with all of your assessments.  Very enjoyable to not worry about who is starting...having the faith we will be in the game.

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16 hours ago, hogan873 said:

It will be interesting come August and beyond (playoffs?).  If all six guys are still here, they have a lot to work with.

1-2 of our SP will either get hurt or get tired this year, having the depth is a very big plus. 

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2 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

1-2 of our SP will either get hurt or get tired this year, having the depth is a very big plus. 

What depth do they have when there are pitchers injured?

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The rotation will help keep the Sox in contention in a crowded division until Eloy and Robert return. The problem we don't know when they will return and how they will perform when they do come back. 

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1 hour ago, whitesoxbrad said:

What depth do they have when there are pitchers injured?

After thinking about this more its just Kopech right now, but since hes on an innings limit that might be an issue down the road. All 5 of our SP are doing very well, so if one gets hurt you could slot in a AAA starter in the 5th spot every now and again towards the end of the season if Kopech has to be shut down. Thats assuming someone gets hurt however. 

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1 hour ago, whitesoxbrad said:

What depth do they have when there are pitchers injured?

Well, considering the minor league season just started two nights ago, Stiever looked good. 

If the pen comes around, the Sox may be able weather the storm until Eloy and Robert return. But man, this rotation hitting so far has been saving this season, with the lineup getting battered and the pen finding its footing.

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21 hours ago, gusguyman said:

tbh I still don't. All of them starting off hot is certainly better than the alternative, but its May 5th. In 2016 Mat Latos was 4-0 with an ERA below 2 at this point. I hope they all keep it rolling and Katz turns out to be the best pitching coach ever (for SPs anyway) but it is WAY too early to be talking about trades or who is being replaced by Kopech, etc.

To be fair, didn't Latos have like a 5 FIP or worse? Most of these guys success are being backed up by their peripherals

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8 minutes ago, Quin said:

Well, considering the minor league season just started two nights ago, Stiever looked good. 

If the pen comes around, the Sox may be able weather the storm until Eloy and Robert return. But man, this rotation hitting so far has been saving this season, with the lineup getting battered and the pen finding its footing.

At this point they have nothing in the minors including your possible selection of stiever who  just came up and did not get 1 out, when there pitching injuries come and they will they will be in big trouble.

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9 minutes ago, whitesoxbrad said:

At this point they have nothing in the minors including your possible selection of stiever who  just came up and did not get 1 out, when there pitching injuries come and they will they will be in big trouble.

The minors are used to develop pitchers and we have not had them since 2019.

Now we have the minors again, where pitchers can develop.

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22 hours ago, ron883 said:

Everybody knew Latos' performance was smoke and mirrors. His peripherals were garbage. Nobody in our rotation is comparable to him. Maybe Keuchel, but he's our 5th pitcher, so who cares?

 

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

To be fair, didn't Latos have like a 5 FIP or worse? Most of these guys success are being backed up by their peripherals

mea culpa, y'all are right, Latos was a cheap-shot example. Still, there are plenty of questions that one month does not answer. Cease has had moments of brilliance before, 2 good starts in a row does not prove he has put it together. Two weeks ago he was on a 4 start streak of less than 5 innings and 3 walks each. Rodon has had moments of brilliance before, but can never stay healthy. Lynn has already had a back injury, and we saw how those can linger with Keuchel last year. 

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, I don't think all of these things will go wrong, Katz seems to have our staff on the right track. Maybe its because I'm a stats person or maybe I am just suffering PTSD from Eloy/Robert, but I just don't ever believe in a team hitting a 90th percentile outcome until it has already happened, and it seems like for the first month of the season our rotation has hit a 90th percentile projection (or better?).

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9 minutes ago, gusguyman said:

 

mea culpa, y'all are right, Latos was a cheap-shot example. Still, there are plenty of questions that one month does not answer. Cease has had moments of brilliance before, 2 good starts in a row does not prove he has put it together. Two weeks ago he was on a 4 start streak of less than 5 innings and 3 walks each. Rodon has had moments of brilliance before, but can never stay healthy. Lynn has already had a back injury, and we saw how those can linger with Keuchel last year. 

I don't mean to sound like a pessimist, I don't think all of these things will go wrong, Katz seems to have our staff on the right track. Maybe its because I'm a stats person or maybe I am just suffering PTSD from Eloy/Robert, but I just don't ever believe in a team hitting a 90th percentile outcome until it has already happened, and it seems like for the first month of the season our rotation has hit a 90th percentile projection (or better?).

I have been largely in the camp that excellence has been there for Carlos before, but its health that is his bugaboo. Im not sure his fastball has ever looked this good before but his slider has been better. I think with Carlos he's as good as his arm allows him to be. 

With Cease, yeah. I need to see it for an extended period. 

As for the rotation in general, it was always going to be high variance given its youth and injury history, for that reason I feel a little more comfortable. Had we been talking about 10 year vets finding another gear I'd be pretty skeptical regardless of peripherals, but all the young guys, and Carlos given his very limited work load in his career healthy, always were going to be high variance guys.

That said, ill celebrate Carlos when he makes even 25 starts. Until then I'll be holding my breath every start. 

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1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I have been largely in the camp that excellence has been there for Carlos before, but its health that is his bugaboo. Im not sure his fastball has ever looked this good before but his slider has been better. I think with Carlos he's as good as his arm allows him to be. 

With Cease, yeah. I need to see it for an extended period. 

As for the rotation in general, it was always going to be high variance given its youth and injury history, for that reason I feel a little more comfortable. Had we been talking about 10 year vets finding another gear I'd be pretty skeptical regardless of peripherals, but all the young guys, and Carlos given his very limited work load in his career healthy, always were going to be high variance guys.

That said, ill celebrate Carlos when he makes even 25 starts. Until then I'll be holding my breath every start. 

Agreed on all this this. Inexperience will provide inconsistencies for many reasons.

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