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harkness99

Sox #1 in the majors in run differential

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Not sure if the fact that they've been doing it without the help of the long ball makes it more or less sustainable, but not bad for a team with a minor league outfield.

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This stat is somewhat misleading. At times, the Sox offense erupts and they run up scores like this week against the Reds and KC. But then they lost to Cincy 1-0, and lost last Sunday to the Indians when their offense went silent again. Being in first is what really counts considering the injuries. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

This stat is somewhat misleading. At times, the Sox offense erupts and they run up scores like this week against the Reds and KC. But then they lost to Cincy 1-0, and lost last Sunday to the Indians when their offense went silent again. Being in first is what really counts considering the injuries. 

you're only looking at it from the offensive end.. not the pitching/def end.

FYI in the 

in the 2019 season 9 out 10... top run differential teams made the post season.

I didn't even look at 2020 because short season but prob not much different.

Edited by harkness99

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5 minutes ago, harkness99 said:

you're only looking at it from the offensive end.. not the pitching/def end.

FYI in the 

in the 2019 season 9 out 10... top run differential teams made the post season.

I didn't even look at 2020 because short season but prob not much different.

Yep run differential does mean good things. The rest of the noise about variances in scores is just baseball.

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39 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

This stat is somewhat misleading. At times, the Sox offense erupts and they run up scores like this week against the Reds and KC. But then they lost to Cincy 1-0, and lost last Sunday to the Indians when their offense went silent again. Being in first is what really counts considering the injuries. 

what you described isn't specific to the Sox though, every team does this

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29 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Yep run differential does mean good things. The rest of the noise about variances in scores is just baseball.

Run differential has a lot more meaning in the middle of June when schedules balance out and players get into form. It's great to see right now, but the sample size makes it a little more hit and miss at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Run differential has a lot more meaning in the middle of June when schedules balance out and players get into form. It's great to see right now, but the sample size makes it a little more hit and miss at this point. 

its early for sure... but a good sign thus far.

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55 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

This stat is somewhat misleading. At times, the Sox offense erupts and they run up scores like this week against the Reds and KC. But then they lost to Cincy 1-0, and lost last Sunday to the Indians when their offense went silent again. Being in first is what really counts considering the injuries. 

World Series Champions since 2016 and their run differential rank. Other than 2019, the World Series champions were either first or second for the regular season RD. 

'16 - Cubs +254 - 1st
'17 - Astros +196 - 2nd
'18 - Red Sox +229 - 2nd
'19 - Nationals +149 - 6th
'20 - Dodgers +136 - 1st

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9 minutes ago, ejm3 said:

World Series Champions since 2016 and their run differential rank. Other than 2019, the World Series champions were either first or second for the regular season RD. 

'16 - Cubs +254 - 1st
'17 - Astros +196 - 2nd
'18 - Red Sox +229 - 2nd
'19 - Nationals +149 - 6th
'20 - Dodgers +136 - 1st

Run differential is important. I just think we need to look at the overall picture in this early point of the season. If the Sox are still playing well in September, it will follow that the RD will be good. The thing about this offense that bothers me some is that it runs up the score one day and goes flat the next. More consistency will only to lead to more wins and an excellent run differential.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

Run differential is important. I just think we need to look at the overall picture in this early point of the season. If the Sox are still playing well in September, it will follow that the RD will be good. The thing about this offense that bothers me some is that it runs up the score one day and goes flat the next. More consistency will only to lead to more wins and an excellent run differential.

That's what fans on the other side of town have been complaining about for years. It's what we complained about from 2000-2004. Corpseball!

I think it's just a trait of good offenses. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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Just now, Jack Parkman said:

That's what fans on the other side of town have been complaining about for years. It's what we complained about from 2000-2004. 

I think it's just a trait of good offenses. 

Run differential isn't just about offense. If you have great pitching you will have a high run differential as well. We have great SP right now so we can still be at the top of run differential without a consistent offense. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Run differential isn't just about offense. If you have great pitching you will have a high run differential as well. We have great SP right now so we can still be at the top of run differential without a consistent offense. 

That's true....you do need both. 

The Sox are 9th in baseball in runs scored and 2nd in runs allowed. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

That's true....you do need both. 

And that is why they say pitching is the most critical thing to have. Because even of your offense is struggling, you still have a chance to be good. I have faith in our offense as it is good, but my concern is with consistent power. 

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37 minutes ago, ejm3 said:

World Series Champions since 2016 and their run differential rank. Other than 2019, the World Series champions were either first or second for the regular season RD. 

'16 - Cubs +254 - 1st
'17 - Astros +196 - 2nd
'18 - Red Sox +229 - 2nd
'19 - Nationals +149 - 6th
'20 - Dodgers +136 - 1st

But the number of teams making it to the LCS/WS outside of the top 10-12 in MLB payroll is equally indicative...

It clearly a minority of the playoff teams, especially if you remove the anomalous 16 team field last year...something like 20%

That said, the very lowest payroll team has never made it to the post-season, which would be the Indians this year.

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27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

But the number of teams making it to the LCS/WS outside of the top 10-12 in MLB payroll is equally indicative...

It clearly a minority of the playoff teams, especially if you remove the anomalous 16 team field last year...something like 20%

That said, the very lowest payroll team has never made it to the post-season, which would be the Indians this year.

Not always...since 2015, the World Series winner and their MLB rank in team payroll:

'20 - Dodgers  #2
'19 - Nationals #11
'18 - Red Sox #1
'17 - Astros #18
'16 - Cubs #14
'15 - Royals #15

'21 White Sox #15 - $136,202,500 vs. #1 Dodgers - $245,228,376

As you can see, four of the last six years were reasonable lower. Hopefully our White Sox at 15th can do the same thing this season.

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2 hours ago, Hang Wiffem said:

Not sure if the fact that they've been doing it without the help of the long ball makes it more or less sustainable, but not bad for a team with a minor league outfield.

To me the fact that they're doing this without our power bats waking up (Abreu, Grandal, Vaughn) and other ones out until later in the season (Eloy, Robert) just bodes well for the team. They're creating runs, but eventually they'll start launching homers.

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1 minute ago, ejm3 said:

Not always...since 2015, the World Series winner and their MLB rank in team payroll:

'20 - Dodgers  #2
'19 - Nationals #11
'18 - Red Sox #1
'17 - Astros #18
'16 - Cubs #14
'15 - Royals #15

'21 White Sox #15 - $136,202,500 vs. #1 Dodgers - $245,228,376

As you can see, four of the last six years were reasonable lower. Hopefully our White Sox at 15th can do the same thing this season.

Sure, the Cubs, Astros and Royals all peaked relatively early and skyrocketed in payroll in the subsequent seasons...which would support the argument that the Sox “all-in” window run is really during these next three seasons.

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10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure, the Cubs, Astros and Royals all peaked relatively early and skyrocketed in payroll in the subsequent seasons...which would support the argument that the Sox “all-in” window run is really during these next three seasons.

Agreed the window is now and for the next 3-4 seasons and that's due to the brilliance of Rick Hahn who locked in several of our best players for the next several years before hitting UFA. 

Year to hit UFA

Abreu '23
Giolito '24
Anderson '25
Hendricks  '25
Moncada '26
Cease '26
Kopech '26
Jimenez '27
Madrigal '27
Crochet '27
Robert '28

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Sox’ Pythagorean record is 21-10 vs. their actual record of 18-13.

Still early, but hoping Tony improves so that he doesn’t become a hinderance to the team’s performance. 

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, ejm3 said:

Agreed the window is now and for the next 3-4 seasons and that's due to the brilliance of Rick Hahn who locked in several of our best players for the next several years before hitting UFA. 

Year to hit UFA

Abreu '23
Giolito '24
Anderson '25
Hendricks  '25
Moncada '26
Cease '26
Kopech '26
Jimenez '27
Madrigal '27
Crochet '27
Robert '28

You left out Grandal, haha.  And Bummer.

Well, the brilliance is theoretically or potentially in dealing with Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Anderson...potentially Vaughn or Madrigal.

That said, I would love to see him operate with the Indians’ budget.  We don’t have an option for 2022 on Rodon, for example.  


Bigger picture, we have only had three starts of 18-13 or better the last fifteen years when Hahn was in a high-level position...2006, 2016, 2020.  Now four.  The Cubs did that how many times in just the last decade...or even late 2000’s?  We start matching those numbers, then you can throw the word brilliant or brilliance into the conversation.

Edited by caulfield12

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20 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

You left out Grandal, haha.  And Bummer.

Well, the brilliance is theoretically or potentially in dealing with Lynn, Rodon, Giolito, Anderson...potentially Vaughn or Madrigal.

That said, I would love to see him operate with the Indians’ budget.  We don’t have an option for 2022 on Rodon, for example.  


Bigger picture, we have only had three starts of 18-13 or better the last fifteen years when Hahn was in a high-level position...2006, 2016, 2020.  Now four.  The Cubs did that how many times in just the last decade...or even late 2000’s?  We start matching those numbers, then you can throw the word brilliant or brilliance into the conversation.

My bad, Bummer should have been on here but he isn't a FA until '27. Grandal is not on here for obvious reasons because he cant be a FA soon enough. He has the highest contract on this team and unfortunately it's not up until 2024. Rodon and Lynn are FA's and that will be important to keep both of them, provided Rodon stays healthy and keeps this up. Lynn is the key one because Hahn gave away a young future talented pitcher in Dane Dunning to get Lynn. 

Btw, how brilliant was Theo for the Cubs? Yes he won the '16 WS, but he never tied up any of his core players with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras and Baez all being FA's in 2022 and probably all leaving. Btw, Hahn has only had the total decision making power since the start of the rebuild and in year 4 which was last year and year 5 this year, I think he has put a great team together to contend for several years...with many all locked up. Whether it's brilliant or not..it surely deserves more credit than you are giving him. 

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Based on RD, our expected W-L is 22-10.

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20 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Based on RD, our expected W-L is 22-10.

That’s pretty good, right? Just checking because more than half the board said the Sox were toast less than a week ago.

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6 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Sox’ Pythagorean record is 21-10 vs. their actual record of 18-13.

Still early, but hoping Tony improves so that he doesn’t become a hinderance to the team’s performance. 

yeah id say two of those at least are a result of a manager who should be playing golf and pitch with his friends and not in a high pressure job.

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