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Princess Dye

Order em: Most likely X-factor success this year

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Getz

Lillibridge

Viciedo

Colon

Marquez

Fields

Nix

Poreda

Richard

Owens

Betemit

Contreras

 

i suppose leave off the players you dont think will even make it

Edited by Princess Dye

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er Anderson and Wise i guess too, although unless Lillibridge becomes leadoff man (or some acquisition) then it doesnt look like theyll get much of a chance to play.

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Most likely?

 

1.) Colon

2.) Richard/Poreda/Owens (whoever wins the #5 SP spot)

3.) Getz

 

But the biggest X-Factor of all of those is Viciedo, and I don't think it's really close. If he turns out to be the next coming of Miguel Cabrera or something, thats going to be an incredibly impactful bat.

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QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 07:03 PM)
Most likely?

 

1.) Colon

 

Thats kind of my thinking too which made me start thinking of the thread. Of all these guys we're counting on to surprise, he's the least of a long shot.

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My order of most likely to make a big impact:

 

1. Josh Fields - major break-out

2. Brian Anderson - proves he's an everyday CF with a full season

3. Chris Getz - solid everyday player

4. Brent Lillibridge - potential lead-off man

5. Clayton Richard - possible 5th starter, possible set-up man

6. Jack Egbert - potentially solid 5th starter

7. Jon Link - 7th inning shut down guy supplants Dotel or Linebrink should they fail

8. Jeff Marquez - probably won't make the team, but is a lot closer and/or better than the other guys

9. Dayan Viciedo - if Fields has a strong spring there's nowhere to play him barring a trade

10. Aaron Poreda - hoping he stays in the minors and continues to develop

11. Gordon Beckham - very unlikely, but there's always a chance he could come up midseason

12. Jose Contreras - could provide a big lift at the end of the year if we're in contention

13. Bartolo Colon - no way he stays healthy, but I still like the signing kind of, although Bartolo's on-and-off-the-DL-again nature may hurt the Sox because it may prevent them from pulling the plug and finding a replacement sooner

...

985423. Jerry Owens - may steal a big base at some point as a pinch runner

985424. Lance Broadway - may give up a home run to a returning Sox player during a blow-out at some point, giving the fans something to cheer about

 

 

Also, here are my two guys to watch out for: Egbert and Lillibridge.

 

Jack Egbert: I think Egbert just may have the stars aligning for him this spring. Apparently all Colon has to do nowadays in order to land on the DL again is swing a bat, and fat jokes aside, his health really doesn't inspire confidence, especially at his age. Then there is Poreda who should NOT be rushed at all. If the Sox think he can develop the pitches to be a starter, then by all means let him develop in the minors. Don't set him back further by putting him in situations he's not ready for and ruining his confidence. Then there's Marquez, who has talent but needs to 1) "make some changes," per KW, 2) adjust to MLB hitting while having been unable to get out Triple A hitting, 3) prove his health, 4) make the mental adjustments to big league pressire. There's also Broadway who hasn't been able to get people out in Charlotte for the last three seasons.

 

Without a Colon injury, the starter competition could easily end up a battle between Clayton Richard and Jack Egbert. With the need for another lefty in the pen aside from Thornton, an impressive ST by Egbert could possibly send Richard to the pen. And if Colon gets hurt, both Richard and Egbert could emerge as the 4-5 starters. From there, I like Egbert as a strike thrower in the Major Leagues. Maybe he'll never be a great pitcher, but as a back end innings eater he could stick.

 

Brent Lillibridge: He has the chance to really, really, really impress. He has speed and he plays defense so it's a given he'll get lots of opportunities from Ozzie. I imagine they'll use him at 2B, SS, 3B, and even CF during ST, and I think all he has to do in order to make the team is play D and steal a base or two. If he can hit a little bit he'll get himself a lot of playing time. With a great ST he'll break as the lead-off man. I'm really pulling for Lillibridge too because if he can show he's ready to play in the Majors then he just might be the difference between Anderson in CF (my preference) and Jerry Owens in CF (which is not something I'm looking forward to).

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Nunez or Jimenez (from Blue Jays)

DJ Carasco (everyone keeps forgetting about him)

Eider Torres (utility INF)

Armstrong/Stewart/Miller (one of them will have a breakthrough)

Russell or Wasserman

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 09:02 PM)
Brent Lillibridge: He has the chance to really, really, really impress. He has speed and he plays defense so it's a given he'll get lots of opportunities from Ozzie. I imagine they'll use him at 2B, SS, 3B, and even CF during ST, and I think all he has to do in order to make the team is play D and steal a base or two. If he can hit a little bit he'll get himself a lot of playing time. With a great ST he'll break as the lead-off man. I'm really pulling for Lillibridge too because if he can show he's ready to play in the Majors then he just might be the difference between Anderson in CF (my preference) and Jerry Owens in CF (which is not something I'm looking forward to).

 

The post in its entirety is awesome. About this part though.... isnt it worth something that Owens' career stats at AA and AAA both trounce what Lillibridge has done at each level, albeit with less opportunities? And Lillibridge is almost 26 yrs old.

 

EDIT: i probably shouldnt say 'trounce' - but he's just proven to be a far better minor league walk-getter than Lillibridge

Edited by Princess Dye

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 09:59 PM)
The post in its entirety is awesome. About this part though.... isnt it worth something that Owens' career stats at AA and AAA both trounce what Lillibridge has done at each level, albeit with less opportunities? And Lillibridge is almost 26 yrs old.

 

EDIT: i probably shouldnt say 'trounce' - but he's just proven to be a far better minor league walk-getter than Lillibridge

Owens may be a better bet to reach his mediocre-at-best ceiling (speedy, powerless CF with no arm who really should be playing LF) than Lillibridge is to reach his ceiling (star-caliber everyday SS and lead-off man) but that doesn't mean you ignore the potential of one player and hope for mediocrity out of the other. Lillibridge also, to his advantage, can play multiple positions well AND can pinch run, so even if he doesn't hit he's still more valuable than a guy who can't play any important position and can ONLY pinch run. The Sox say they think they've identified some issues with Lillibridge and they think there's some things they can fix so hopefully that is the case and Brent makes the Javy trade a steal.

 

Also, minor league numbers only mean so much anyway. In the case of a guy like Broadway for example, they mean a whole lot because the guy has to show he can get out minor league hitters on limited stuff to deserve an opportunity. If you take a guy with nasty stuff who sucks in the minors, like say Grant Balfour for example, he could just all of the sudden "figure it out" and make some changes which lets his natural ability work for itself. With a guy like Owens, or Brad Eldred, or someone along those lines who only has one tool, they have to play very well to deserve a shot, because when they are given a shot you are essentially asking a Major League team to ignore all those players' flaws and act as if those flaws are not important. With someone like Lilli OTOH, someone who has the tools and ability to play a premium position very well, those guys just need to come through in a few opportunities and they're given the keys until they fail. It's a bad example as the players couldn't be more different, but Carlos Quentin was the same way. He popped in during I think the third game of the season and did a nice job, so he just stayed there. If that had been DeWayne Wise for example then he wouldn't have stuck, and the only reason Wise did stick at the end of the year was because the Sox were playing for their lives.

 

I have to add though that I understand Owens is getting lots of hype from the Sox once again and may in fact be the starter on opening day. That's Ozzie though. The Sox know he has no power, they know he can't take a walk, they know he can't play CF, they he has no arm, and they know he isn't even that great of a baserunner, but they're apparently willing to overlook all of that for speed. And that I guess just goes to show you how high Lillibridge's stock could climb if he impresses in ST.

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 08:51 PM)
How is 'what pitcher can eat or drink more' beating my thread c'mon people

 

:lolhitting

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1. Whomever gets the #4 starter's job

2. Whomever gets the leadoff job.

3. Whomever gets the CF job.

4. Whomever gets the 3B job.

5. Whomever gets the #5 starter's job.

6. Whomever gets the 2B job.

7. Whomever rounds out the bullpen.

8. Whomever's in charge of Contreras' rehabilitation.

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Getz, Fields/Viciedo, Colon, and Contreras.

 

 

For some reason when I watch Getz it reminds me of dustin pedroia of the Redsox, I really think Getz can have a career similar to Pedroia, now I have no stats or real logic to back that statement, more of a gut feeling. And I know pedroia bats righty while Getz is a lefty.

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 06:58 PM)
Getz

Lillibridge

Viciedo

Colon

Marquez

Fields

Nix

Poreda

Richard

Owens

Betemit

Contreras

 

i suppose leave off the players you dont think will even make it

 

1. Betemit/Fields/Thome Platoon

2. Owens/Anderson Platoon

 

9. Poreda (bullpen second half)

 

 

If the roster is left as-is, it will be the year of the Ozzie shuffle.

 

 

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Its all about pitching...

Starters

If Danks and Floyd continue to improve we will be in great shape. Buerhle is Buerhle. A lot will depend if Colon stays healthy. And then when Contreras comes back if he can stay healthy or not. Will Marquez be a decent enough 5th starter? I would like it if Marquez and Poreda start off the year in triple-a.... but i garuntee you we will see them in our rotation at some point during the year. A signing of Freddy would be smart. It seems as if all he is looking for is a minor league deal with a chance to make a big league rotation at some point during the year.... Why wouldn't we look into that?

 

The bullpen

I think we still have the making of a strong bullpen. Jenks has really developed into a true closer in this league of the past 2 seasons. Dotel and Linebrink if healthy can be very solid setup men. Thorton is a stud. I think Clayton Richard will be an excellent long reliever/ 6th-7th inning guy for us in 2009. IMO he will be a HUGE reason for our sucess in 2009. I can see Wasserman being effective as well. It will also be interesting to see how the MacDougal situation turns out... the guy has flat out nasty stuff. He just needs to control his pitches...

 

As far as everything else goes... Im pretty sure KW isn't quite done putting the starting lineup together. I know he said over a month ago that he would focus on the outfield situation next. Well since then, he has made zero moves addressing the OF. Im guessing he will make one more stab at getting a CF... I think the infield is set with Getz, Ramirez and Fields.

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 08:02 PM)
11. Gordon Beckham - very unlikely, but there's always a chance he could come up midseason

 

I don't see this as unlikely. Not at all. I won't even be shocked if he makes the team out of ST. Surprised a little bit, but not shocked. I EXPECT him to rake early and often at Birm./Char and be

up before the All Star break.

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I am not as well versed in many of the younger players and/or those aquired by trade, but I think that Colon will surprise many and have a decent year (not great, but decent). Otherwise, Anderson will have a very good year provided he gets to play a lot. Fields will be a serviceable 3rd baseman and have an okay batting season. I'm very excited about Viciedo. I hope we weren't all spoiled with Ramirez, but this guy could be huge for us.

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Hopefully his power numbers and NOT his weight/caloric intake!!!

 

I'm guardedly/cautiously optimistic that Herm and Alan Regier can really work hard with Viciedo, Contreras and Colon to get the best out of each of them.

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QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jan 17, 2009 -> 11:27 AM)
Its all about pitching...

Starters

If Danks and Floyd continue to improve we will be in great shape. Buerhle is Buerhle. A lot will depend if Colon stays healthy. And then when Contreras comes back if he can stay healthy or not. Will Marquez be a decent enough 5th starter? I would like it if Marquez and Poreda start off the year in triple-a.... but i garuntee you we will see them in our rotation at some point during the year. A signing of Freddy would be smart. It seems as if all he is looking for is a minor league deal with a chance to make a big league rotation at some point during the year.... Why wouldn't we look into that?

 

The bullpen

I think we still have the making of a strong bullpen. Jenks has really developed into a true closer in this league of the past 2 seasons. Dotel and Linebrink if healthy can be very solid setup men. Thorton is a stud. I think Clayton Richard will be an excellent long reliever/ 6th-7th inning guy for us in 2009. IMO he will be a HUGE reason for our sucess in 2009. I can see Wasserman being effective as well. It will also be interesting to see how the MacDougal situation turns out... the guy has flat out nasty stuff. He just needs to control his pitches...

 

As far as everything else goes... Im pretty sure KW isn't quite done putting the starting lineup together. I know he said over a month ago that he would focus on the outfield situation next. Well since then, he has made zero moves addressing the OF. Im guessing he will make one more stab at getting a CF... I think the infield is set with Getz, Ramirez and Fields.

 

If all Garcia was looking for was a minor league deal, he would have been signed already by someone.

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QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 16, 2009 -> 10:29 PM)
Owens may be a better bet to reach his mediocre-at-best ceiling (speedy, powerless CF with no arm who really should be playing LF) than Lillibridge is to reach his ceiling (star-caliber everyday SS and lead-off man) but that doesn't mean you ignore the potential of one player and hope for mediocrity out of the other. Lillibridge also, to his advantage, can play multiple positions well AND can pinch run, so even if he doesn't hit he's still more valuable than a guy who can't play any important position and can ONLY pinch run. The Sox say they think they've identified some issues with Lillibridge and they think there's some things they can fix so hopefully that is the case and Brent makes the Javy trade a steal.

 

Also, minor league numbers only mean so much anyway. In the case of a guy like Broadway for example, they mean a whole lot because the guy has to show he can get out minor league hitters on limited stuff to deserve an opportunity. If you take a guy with nasty stuff who sucks in the minors, like say Grant Balfour for example, he could just all of the sudden "figure it out" and make some changes which lets his natural ability work for itself. With a guy like Owens, or Brad Eldred, or someone along those lines who only has one tool, they have to play very well to deserve a shot, because when they are given a shot you are essentially asking a Major League team to ignore all those players' flaws and act as if those flaws are not important. With someone like Lilli OTOH, someone who has the tools and ability to play a premium position very well, those guys just need to come through in a few opportunities and they're given the keys until they fail. It's a bad example as the players couldn't be more different, but Carlos Quentin was the same way. He popped in during I think the third game of the season and did a nice job, so he just stayed there. If that had been DeWayne Wise for example then he wouldn't have stuck, and the only reason Wise did stick at the end of the year was because the Sox were playing for their lives.

 

I have to add though that I understand Owens is getting lots of hype from the Sox once again and may in fact be the starter on opening day. That's Ozzie though. The Sox know he has no power, they know he can't take a walk, they know he can't play CF, they he has no arm, and they know he isn't even that great of a baserunner, but they're apparently willing to overlook all of that for speed. And that I guess just goes to show you how high Lillibridge's stock could climb if he impresses in ST.

 

Your point about Lillibridge's higher ceiling makes sense, although I will just throw in that his age and recent performance has to make one think he's getting into a point in his career where the big move upward gets harder and harder to make.

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QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Jan 19, 2009 -> 08:07 PM)
Your point about Lillibridge's higher ceiling makes sense, although I will just throw in that his age and recent performance has to make one think he's getting into a point in his career where the big move upward gets harder and harder to make.

I'll take flowers.

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