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This isn't hard, dude. "His stats get way better when you factor in a little bit of respect from the umpires on how good his batting eye is." OK, that's an argument for why he will improve, and it's even a decent argument in that regard. What you said combined with what I said and, at the very least, Moncada is an above average MLB second baseman. But some people are going to be antsy about it until that actually comes to fruition. That's understandable. And yes, some results matter in 2018. But they need context. Giolito's overall stats are awful, but if you look at the last month or so, it's been much better. That's an important caveat for how we look at him going into the off season. Moncada's overall stats are below average, but if you look at certain aspects it gets better. It's stupid to throw out these results entirely, but they need context. So yeah, results matter, and if you're not looking at results at all, you're doing it wrong.

Frankly, because “woulda, coulda, shoulda” isn’t going to win us a ring. It makes us feel better about things, but it doesn’t help achieve the goal. Is it a decent argument as to why he can and should feasibly improve along my predicted lines? Sure. But until it turns into end results, it’s not going to mean a ton to many people. Do I share their complete despair? No, but I understand it. Results matter.

Looking at Batting Average alone really doesn't do justice to the type of hitter he is. He's not a one dimensional high average hitter. Much of his value comes from bases on balls, xbh, and speed.

Loved Fisk for that. I am old school and don't mind pitching inside at all. In fact, I believe you have to to be effective. I understand moving a guy off the plate and yea even intentionally hitting a guy. However, you should hit him where Kopech did (ass by accounts) but I don't believe in 99mph. 90 mph , (for Kopech might be a change up LOL) is plenty and you actually have to throw it hard enough to control it. Forever it has been part of the game up until the last 25 years or so. If you homered, you expected/prepared to get buzzed the next time. Some guys would buzz you twice so you knew the first wasn't a mistake. Look at this quote in a story from Callum Hughson of Dusty Baker being warned about Bob Gibson by Hank Aaron “(Hank Aaron told me) ‘Don’t dig in against Bob Gibson, he’ll knock you down. He’d knock down his own grandmother if she dared to challenge him. Don’t stare at him, don’t smile at him, don’t talk to him. He doesn’t like it. If you happen to hit a home run, don’t run too slow, don’t run too fast. If you happen to want to celebrate, get in the tunnel first. And if he hits you, don’t charge the mound, because he’s a Gold Glove boxer.’ I’m like, ‘Damn, what about my 17-game hitting streak?’ That was the night it ended.” —Dusty Baker

https://mobile.twitter.com/KnightsBaseball/status/1029752223646011393 Kopech starts April 4th and 9th in Charlotte. They fly to Indy, the Sox announce he and Eloy are coming up on the 11th. Eloy makes his debut on the 12th, and Kopech on the 14th.

I disagree with this statement wholeheartedly and pivot it more to a conversation about people who played the game for an extended period of time vs. those who didn't. You are taught to take the game out of the umps hands with two strikes. What that means is, as a hitter, you are typically taught to slightly expand your zone with 2 strikes so that you don't give up an at bat. Period. Moncada looks at too many close pitches and quite frankly too many pitches in general (that are in the hitting zone). This is an approach thing and while he absolutely has a good eye, he also is not near aggressive enough and is going to have to look at film and come up with an adjusted strategy. The entire Sox offensive coaching staff is essentially blasting Moncada for not being aggressive and it goes back to this basic concept that is essentially grounded in baseball players heads from a young age. And even as strike out numbers amount, the reason people are striking out a lot more isn't because they don't swing with 2 strikes and let strikes go looking...its cause they swing as hard as they can every damn time (vs. shifting an approach with 2 strikes to be more contact specific...look for the base hit vs. the HR).

Posts like these make it clear to me as to who watches games and who doesn't. If he were getting rung up on pitches that were an inch off the zone I wouldn't care as much. But when he routinely gets called out on pitches quite literally 5-6 inches off the zone, pitches that are called a strike in their respective locations 0-5% of the time, I really can't fault him for it, and neither should you

Fantastic post (and a first post too). Welcome to the board and completely agree with everything you said, as well as what Sir has articulated.

There's a lot to like about going through this thread again. Some of what was posted here was predictive, and some posts were way off. [Both by myself and others.] "He has nothing left to learn in AAA. He's bored in AAA. He'll play up to his competition in the Bigs. And so on...

You are correct. So look at OPS instead. I don't care that Moncada is hitting .219; I do care that his OPS is .695. And looking at month-by-month, he did .877, .582, .592, .749, .606 so far. One excellent month, one average month, and three Engel months. The fact of the matter is that Ks must come down. Right now, he's striking out at a 35% rate. If he could get that down to 27% (190 Ks in 700 PAs), he could be at least above average. A .325 BABIP (assuming 25 HRs, and this is roughly his BABIP in MLB time with us) and 10% BB-rate with that K-rate would give him 160 hits in 630 ABs (.254 BA). OBP of .329. Assume 30 2Bs and 5 3Bs, and he accumulates 275 TBs for an SLG of .437. OPS is .766. Not bad, and he'd certainly be a starting two-bagger, maybe even top-10 in MLB. But not Robinson Cano, as many (I think) were hoping for. Now let's imagine if he can get down to current Kris Bryant levels (although I will add that Bryant started at where I have Moncada ending in the last scenario, but he was more polished, fine, OK). So give him a 20% K-rate, like Bryant attained last year. 140 Ks in 700 PAs. BABIP of .325 (and because he's not K'ing as much, we'll predict 30 HRs). Some of those looking Ks have now morphed into well-deserved walks, so he has a 15% BB-rate. That's 105 BBs (elite batting eye- this is totally possible). That BABIP and aforementioned assumptions gives us 168 hits in 595 ABs, for a .282 BA (OBP of .390). Assume 35 2Bs (again, less time striking out means more time to drill the ball into the gap) and 5 3Bs. That's 303 TBs for an SLG of .505 and an OPS of .899. That is what we traded Chris freakin' Sale for. But the Ks must come down. P.S. just for fun, if I took the 20% K-rate but kept everything else at his 2018 rates, here's what you'd get in 700 PAs: ABs- 627 BBs- 73 Hs- 178 2Bs- 30 3Bs- 7 HRs- 22 BA- .284 OBP- .359 SLG- .459 OPS- .818 That level is reached simply by cutting his Ks (albeit significantly). That's all based on his exact rates for BBs, XBHs of each type, and his current BABIP. No improvement except the K-rate. If he can start being aggressive earlier in counts and defensive later in them, he can be a perennial All Star. And like some have said, teaching Yoan to be more like Tim Anderson will be a lot easier than teaching Tim Anderson to be like Yoan.

I guess when it comes down to it, there is just a group of posters who can't handle the fact that the rebuild will take time, and that players might take some time to hit their potential. It happens. If you are so caught up in just looking at strikeouts and OPS to not see that Moncada has superstar talent in him, then you aren't watching baseball the right way. Moncada is still a pretty raw player. He also appears to be a super headstrong kid who, despite obviously having the entire White Sox coaching staff telling him to be more aggressive, hasn't been willing to listen to them, at least until this point. The thing that gives me more faith in him than in most are what his specific problems are. His strike outs are hugely exaggerated by refusing to swing at pitches which are even a spec of dust out of the strike zone. This is a problem that is much easier to fix than the problem of guys who chase out of the zone. Even just having the umpires give him the respect he deserves on the zone will make a huge difference. He will gain 50 OPS points just from that.

Here you go, right along with Kipnis...exactly in the middle of the pack for MLB 2B https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Of course, the problem is that it has been all downhill since April 23 when he was already around 1.8! Are people really saying they’d STILL prefer Moncada at 1.1 compared to a 3-4 fWAR and picking 4th-6th instead???

No, my point is that Ozzie Albies hasn't been that good since May (I used the last month because it happened to be a little worse). Yet to the Longo's of the world, he's some sort of cult god even though Moncada has a much higher ceiling.

Just quit. This take is so hot, planets revolve around it.

That's why I said "not the part about losing it to the point of giving up hits after the bunt." I kind of like the overall competitive attitude. It does need to be controlled though. He's a young maturing kid. He'll figure it out.

I was going to ask the same thing. Sounds like his thought was legitimate and her response insinuated that she believes he was being a smartass then went on to blame the Bats’ manager. No idea.

I can't not root for Sale, doesn't matter that he's on the Red Sox now (it helps that I don't dislike the RSox). The guy is one of the 5-6 best pitchers I've ever seen and he's a psycho (which I will always argue is a good quality in a pitcher).

Thanks, man. I will say that, if anyone thinks my stance on Moncada (often pessimistic in the past) changed, well, to some extent, it did. I just did the math and let it play out. Seeing what he can reasonably do if he overcomes one area of difficulty is enlightening, and gives me a higher degree of optimism. For that reason, I'm just going to shamelessly drop @footlongcomiskeydog in here and see what he thinks of the possibilities.

I am not sure what this even means, but the reality is that we are in the early stages of a rebuild. We have some players who are in their very first full season of major league baseball, and are quite literally learning on the job. This is what the process looks like. That process will be continuing for the foreseeable future. If you just need to see "results" and aren't willing to watch the games and understand the results, you should probably log out and come back in a few years when "results" should be available. The "results" in 2018 literally don't matter.

When did I say he was a bad person? I've always said he was a great person. I'm considering reporting you for posting fake news about me

Ya, that was one of the better plays I've ever seen when you include everything he did and the time/score situation.

Agreed. Plus...it’s about time Ricky starts sticking up for his star pupil more. Since he’s so fond of getting tossed lately...make it be for a purpose. This is getting to be bullshit. To Moncadas credit he hasn’t blown a gasket yet on some of these asshats behind the plate.

I’d fire Renteria and bring a guy who might bring some tough love (Girardi could be an option). I’d let the new manager bring on new hitting coaches and hopw different voices get through to him. If after a month next year we see no progress, I’d use that final option and send him down to AAA to work through changes in a low stress environment.

It is more than a 20 game brutal stretch. He hit .274-April, .205- May, .197-June .231-July .182-August. Luckily he had a solid April. He is not extremely young by today's standards but he is fairly new to US baseball.

I don't get your argument man. Are you trying to say that Moncada is already an extremely good player? If so, then you have some pretty low standards. Moncada has to prove that he is a good player. So far he has been nothing but hype. Also, you can't just throw out his bad months and say he is having a good year. Every team would have 5-7 all stars if we just threw out all the bad stretches of their season.

But if we all concede that he’s gotten hosed on probably 20, maybe even close to 30 called strikes that should have been balls, his k rate comes down significantly. Nobody can argue he hasn’t at least gotten “unlucky” with called third strikes, which is something that just doesn’t show up in the stat line. If even 10 at bats change from strikeouts to walks it has a 6 point effect on BA and a 20 point effect on OBP. now imagine a year he was “lucky” in that department

I have positive posts. They just aren't in the Moncada thread cause there hasn't been much to be positive about with him this year. More than one account? LMAO. More nonsense.

I’m not saying they’re alike. You missed my point. I’m saying that extremely good players have somewhat bad seasons, and extremely bad stretches of seasons.

Konerko had a track record of some success in 2003, and never had an obscene k-rate. They’re nothing alike.

Did you just call somebody a hater? I've never seen you post something positive. Not once. In fact, you have more than 1 account just to hate. That's just weird, dude.

Having Albies instead of Moncada on this team would simply hurt their 2019 draft position. Let’s compare the performance of those two in the 2020 season and beyond when wins/losses actually matter to this team. Until then, I just don’t see the point in getting all worked up and his performance this year is actually helping their 2018 tanking effort.

Get out of here with this nonsense. I got no problems with Cuban players and love me some Jose Abreu. Abreu has proven that he can hit big league pitching unlike Moncada or Robert. U ready to eat crow on Albies yet? That kid just keeps on proving haters like you wrong day after day.

I’m definitely not declaring him a bust, but this K rate shouldn’t be tolerated at the big league level- and I don’t care how bad Baez was earlier in his career. I’d send him down to just take the pressure off a couple weeks. Hope something clicks.

This group doesn't really care about facts or reality. They only want to be throwing a temper tantrum.

Yeah,,, he is young.. can run... swing looks pretty. But I doesn't really look like he can hit MLB pitching at the moment. There is still hope.. but I just don't see it. This looks like a pretty bad swing and miss by Hahn and the boys... Hope to hell im eating crow on this...

Sox season every 20 games: 5-15, 6-14, 9-11, 8-12, 8-12, 8-12 So they have played over .400 ball for the last half season.

Sorry, that doesn't cause a hole in your bat. Yes he's been screwed a lot on pitches, but how about not falling behind in the count so quickly every at bat by not having a solid plan at the plate. The kid has had every excuse in the world made for him this year. His hit tool is just flat out awful.

it's in his head and I don't blame him. Never seen a season long screw job like this. It's probably about the difference in 50 OPS points.

Ozzie mentioned his body language as well. Says it doesn't look like he enjoys himself playing. I still think he will be alright, and think some of the body language is because he's not used to having a hard time playing baseball. But it is worth noting, this guy got paid before he became a major leaguer. The motivation may not be as great, and it would only be natural.

to be fair, post ASB, Yoan is 151/275/279

Welcome to the dark side

If the minor league season was longer, I'd say it's getting close to demotion time. It's so disappointing to see how much worse he is as a hitter now compared to when he came up last season.

Another great exhibit of how badly he's pulling off the ball. If it's not inner half, he has absolutely no chance. That was the 3 worst swings he's had in an at bat this year. Keep up the great work Yoan and Steverson.

Not if he continues the terrible trend from the last 4-6 weeks...it’s more likely to be 0.5 than 2.5 in that sense.

Right, I agree with you, but the quote I was discussing was purely about his 2018 season. If this is who he is forever, then I'd be disappointed, but I believe that he will improve.

I think since he was the top prospect and headliner in the Sale trade being below average has a different context. If Engel gets to just below average status we'd be real happy.

Soxtalk should band together and do a documentary on the intricacies and history of the Reinsdorf family estate. There's an unbelievable amount of detailed insider knowledge here. We could also generate revenue for the site by offering financial planning services. We'd be foolish to squander this much expertise.

Sale taken out after five with 12k’s. Maybe we should have demanded more in that trade? Lol

Just hang a sign around Shields' neck that says " free to a good home".