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mac9001

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Posts posted by mac9001

  1. I will say if you're going to drop a guy like Jonathan Stiever off the list due to injuries but keep guys like Pallette and McDougal it seems a bit hypocritical. Is the assumption Stiever won't recover from his injury or that his struggles prior to surgery were not related? I'm just not sure how you can justify any ranking on someone who hasn't thrown a pitch in pro ball and is coming off TJS.

  2. If you build it they will come. Build a world class facility and surround it with dinning, drinking, entertainment, shopping, and lodging and the Sox could outdraw the Cubs. The northwest burbs are densely populated and fairly affluent. That's a good basis for a season ticket fan base. You could do it somewhere else, but the Bears have enough land for 4 stadiums, so jump on the bandwagon out of town and make a deal.

     

     

  3. Really solid draft. Love the arms and there's at least intrigue with the Seniors. Comine this year's stock with some of the other young arms and the laws of baseball say we should at least hit on a few. At least we're laying the ground work for a home grown future rotation. The Sox don't have a single home grown (drafted) product in the rotation and Davis Martin probably finds himself in a bullpen role. 

  4. 1 hour ago, Tnetennba said:

    JR could invest around Sox Park.  He always could.  He doesn’t want to.   Same with the United Center.  He’s content raking in parking dollars in his sweetheart stadium lease deal.  The threat of the Sox leaving any time soon is non-existent.  The Bears bailing on the city because the city won’t cater to them with tax dollars/breaks has absolutely nothing to do with the White Sox.  There is zero connection there.  The Bears moving to the burbs was of their own volition.  

    The moment the Sox have a competent management team with a vision they'll pursue a new stadium strategy. The South side is not attractive as a development site. AH was a nice sweet spot for the Bears. They managed to aquire a crap ton of land that will be worth multiples of it's current value with proper development and it can be reasonably accommodated with a public transport link to the CTA and an existing Metra stop. The Sox may not find that in Chicago, but I'm sure there's an opportunity somewhere in this country that's infinity more attractive than 35th and Shields.

    If the city wants to keep the Sox the solution won't be a south side stadium. Not sure how feasibility you can turn Solider Field into a baseball stadium but they better start getting creative.

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  5. 5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

     

    The Bears leaving Chicago is going to make the Sox a whole shitload of money on their next stadium deal.  They will bend the city of Chicago over a barrel to stop them from being the second team in a decade to leave.  Last I knew the Sox are locked in through 2033, but they will get what they want.  Tis the Chicago way.

    The time to leverage that is now. If I was the Sox and the play was to bend the city over now would be the time to engage the Bears and make a potential exit as real as possible.

  6. 6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

    The Sox don't have the smallest stadium in their professional sports league with the least amount of premium sales space.

    The Sox now for all purposes have the 2nd oldest stadium (A's will build a new one soon, so only Rogers is older with no major renovations). The Bears left because they're not going to let the Chicago Park District have a significant stake in the success of the franchise. The Sox will eventually come to the same revelation when they can own and develop real estate to suit their ends without any restrictions. South side of Chicago is a shitty place for property development, so is Solider Field and the Museum Campus (can't own lakefront property in Chicago). The moment the Sox have a competent management team they're gone.

  7. The Sox best move is working out a deal with the Bears. Eventually the same restrictions and limitations that drove the bears out of Solider Field will also drive the Sox out. The south side of Chicago is just a terrible location for a large sports stadium, eventually they'll follow the money into the burbs, downtown or out of town. It's inevitable.

  8. 1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

    While these are true, there's also some serious weirdness in Jose Abreu's numbers this year. 

    Abreu is showing a career low in launch angle of 9.5 degrees which is on the lower side of the league. 

    Abreu has a high ground ball rate, in the highest 10% of the league. Highest of his career.

    Abreu is at the very bottom of the league in line drive rate. Lowest of his career by almost a factor of 2.

    There is absolutely an indication that Jose Abreu is doing something quite screwed up at the plate. He may be hitting the ball as hard as he has in his career, he is also hitting those balls on the ground or hitting them straight up rather than driving them. 

    League average on grounders is about .240, he's at .196.

    League average on fly balls is .220, he's at .179.

    He should be roughly 40-50 points higher on his average just on the grounder and fly balls. Given how hard he's hitting the ball he should be outperforming the league average on both grounders and fly balls. 

    Where he is struggling and why the power output is lower is his line drive rate is down to about 12.5% (career avg is 20.6%). Expected average on a line drive is about .700. 

    So he's hitting most of his balls on the ground or in the air but not on a line. The outcomes on those should be better than what we've seen, but his HR and double output is a cause for concern as he's not hitting line drives. This is still a relatively small sample size. If he continues to hit the ball hard and his line drive rate recovers to what we've seen in his career he numbers will stabilize. What makes the numbers even more stringing is his line drive rate drop to 9.1% at home, and if you keep slicing it down his line drive rates on hard hit balls is only 19% (usually over 30%) and medium EV balls at home it's only 3.7%, historically on medium EV balls his line drive rates would be over 20%. There's just an insane disparity based on his career numbers, expected outcomes and basic probabilities. 

    Overall it's actually quite striking how the Sox are underperforming their career baseline line drive rates. 

    Line Drive Rates

    Abreau -- Career: 20.6%, Best: 23.6%, 2022: 12.5%

    Robert -- Career: 23.3%, Best: 26.4%, 2022: 21.2%

    Moncada -- Career: 23.4%, Best: 26.6%, 2022: 14.3%

    Grandal -- Career: 18.6%, Best: 22.9, 2022: 14.9%

    Pollock -- Career: 19.8%, Best: 23.3%, 2022: 19.7%

    Vaugh -- Career: 19.5%, Best: 19.9%, 2022: 16.7% 

    Harrison - Career: 22.3%, Best: 25.1%, 2022: 8.1%

    I guess not hitting line drives has become contagious. 

     

    The Sox are now 28th in line drive rate.

     

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  9. Jose this year:

    .275 Expected Batting Average (about as high as he's ever been)

    .523 Expected Slugging Percentage (2nd highest after 2020)

    94.3 Average Exit Velocity (highest of career), in the 98% percentile in all of baseball

    9.6% Barrel Rate (career 9.5%)

    55.8% Hard Hit Rate (highest of career), in the 98% percentile in all of baseball

    17.2% K rate - lowest of career

    10.3% Walk rate - highest of career

     

    There's no indication Jose has lost any steam, he's walking more, striking out less, hitting the ball as hard as ever. He just appears to be incredibly unlucky. Historically Jose has generated a lot of his power production off fastballs, this year his SLG on fastballs is .412 with an expected SLG of .599. Thus to be more precise he's been incredibly unlucky on hard hit fastballs.

     

    Here's already had 7 pitches that had a hit probability over 90% go for outs. In all of 2021 he 14 pitches that had a 90% hit probability go for outs. He keeps his current bad luck pace up this year and he'll end up with 33-34 hard hits balls that are hits 90% of the time.

     

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  10. 2 minutes ago, wegner said:

    I keep watching that play and shaking my head....that truly was a pretty awful effort there by a veteran OF....didn't play the wall well at all.  It also looked like Hendriks thought he gave up a walk off homer there....not a homer but still a walk off.

    Baez hit the ball hard (103.7 EV) on a line. That's a hit 75% of the time, the fact the Pollock even had a chance was relatively lucky. Liam made a bad pitch, left a straight fastball up over the plate and Baez made solid contact. The last 3 hits against Liam were all 103.7-104.5 EV, that's 3 really hard hit balls. You're not going to have a lot of success getting hit that hard.

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  11. 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

    So literally the same stuff as last year?

    Just bad luck, solid pitches that statically have very high probabilities of being outs/whiffs. Yet both of them had solid contact with low launch angles which means when they left the bat they were likely to be hits even tough the exit velocity were weak. 

     

    That slider was literarily the last pitch you want to swing at as a hitter. If if had to guess the hit outcome on a pitch like that has to be less than 5%.

     

     

  12. The Bummer hate is totally unfounded. The pitch he made to Baez was pretty solid. Painted the shadow of the zone low and away. Baez made relatively weak contact.  You throw those same 5 pitches every time and 99% of his ABs will be just fine.

     

    image.png

    Grossman AB was a slider low, out of the zone. It had 50in of vertical break which is about as much as you can get on a slider and 18 of horizontal break.  That was a really solid slider that again resulted in weak contact. Throw that pitch 100 times and you'll only have a handful on successful contact events. 

    image.png

     

    He made two solid pitches and the hitters just managed to get enough bat to find a hole. It happens, keep making those pitches and he'll be fine.

     

     

     

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  13. I will say anyone that worried about the Sox pitching depth should take a look around the division. The Guardiana staff is loaded with finesse unproven arms that are highly susceptible to regression. There's a general lack of pitching depth in the whole division. The Sox are still a major injury or two away from not being front runners, but most of the other teams are one injury away from aspiring to be competitive to competing for last place.

     

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  14. Who's to say you can't use him a middle relief depth? In the event Lopez or VV are holding thing's down he's a veteran option over the weak back end of the bullpen. He wouldn't even need to be fully stretched out.

  15. Ironically the Sox spend a small fortune on the bullpen and somehow dropped from #1 to #2 in the MLB annual bullpen rankings. 

    I will say it's very difficult to rank the Sox with confidence as the range of possibilities for some of the the higher end talents is insanely wide. If you get some elite production from our elite talent the Sox can really pile on the wins.

    Would they be willing to let Kopech throw 180+ innings if he's just mowing through hitters? Can you get 6+ WAR seasons out of Robert and Moncada? How productive will Abreu be? 2-3 WAR?

    If you get 12 WAR out of Moncada/Robert the Sox floor likely becomes a top 3 lineup. With a productive Kopech it puts the Sox at potentially 4 pitchers with 4~ WAR aspirations. That's near the top if not the top rotation in baseball. Are we likely to actually have 4 WAR pitchers, probably not. But the fact we have 4 guys with legitimate all star level potential I feel pretty good about the Sox filling out rotation innings. 

     

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  16. 4 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

    Why would any franchise move out of one of the largest media markets in the country?

    The Cubs own most of the market value in Chicago. The Sox market value is average at best for a MLB franchise while their stadium and brand value is below average (and probably near the bottom) of MLB franchises. I don't think you can make an argument where the Sox from an overall value perspective would be better off on the south side than Las Vegas.

  17. 6 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

    yup

    Easy to take that perspective after a dude goes under the knife. I would image timing the relative peak value of a prospect is more difficult than timing a peak exit in the stock market. The volatility on prospect value is likely so high I imagine it only takes a few months to gain or lose a significant share of their potential return.

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