maxjusttyped

I think Bailey Falter and Hans Crouse are better pitchers in that mold than anything in the Sox system. Those guys both make sense to me as trade targets if the Sox end up signing Semien, like I very much hope they do.

I think acquiring upper minors pitching prospects that haven't debuted yet to upgrade on Lambert/Stiever would make a lot of sense, too. I'm not sure if that'd be classified as win now or not even though players like that could help in 2022.

I'd like Tylor Megill from the Mets but I'm not sure if they'd want to deal away quality pitching depth. McNeil would make a lot of sense as a trade target from them.

Semien leads all position players in fWAR over the last 3 seasons. He's been nearly 6 wins better than Correa and Seager over that same time span. I'd rather have those guys too, but how can you say someone who's been an MVP caliber player 2 of the last 3 years is a fluke? He's 1.4 fWAR ahead of the #2 position player in all of baseball over the last 3 years. Guys who are flukes aren't capable of being arguably the most productive player in baseball over a *3* season span.

Bob isn't linking them to Seager or Correa. Ray and Semien both have enough flaws where it keeps them (possibly) within what JR is willing to spend.

Having genuine interest in Ray but not offering Rodon the QO would lead me to believe they really think Carlos is cooked

Get it done.

It isn't just spending, they've also used 2 1st round picks (Crochet and Burdi) on likely relievers, and used Kopech in the bullpen for an entire season this past year when I think most organizations would have had him start the year in the minors to develop fully as a SP. If you look at % of resources (payroll, prospect development, draft picks etc) the Sox probably devote more to the bullpen than any other organization in baseball.

TB was interested in Kimbrel before the deadline. I wonder if the Sox could get a 2B/SS option like Taylor Walls or some upper minors pitching depth in exchange for him.

Gurriel adds some depth to RF, but I don't think it's clear he's an upgrade over what the Sox have now so giving up 2 players of consequence for him doesn't make much sense to me. Gurriel is a 2 war/150 games guy in his career. I think that's a reasonable expectation for what you'd get from a Vaughn/Sheets/Engel trio in RF. Obliviously that isn't good enough, I think everyone on here agrees the Sox need to be aggressive in making a consequential addition in RF, but Gurriel isn't that. If they want to add an averageish player, why not just sign a guy like Joc who fits the roster better and only costs a modest contract in free agency?

Turning the #3 pick into 3 years of Pablo Lopez would be a disastrous outcome, in my opinion.

The idea of ending up with 0 HG players from 2 years of tanking makes me sick to my stomach, but if the Sox are going to deal Vaughn to Miami, Vaughn for Rogers is an interesting idea.

Vaughn involved in a deal for Gurriel (I'm assuming the Sox would be getting another piece as well) would be an all-time bad trade. Oh my goodness.

I'm aware of that. Citing Albert Belle's deal from ~26 years ago doesn't feel particularly relevant anymore, but it's fair to bring up. I've been clinging (in my mind) to the fact they had the 4th highest payroll in '06. There is some precedent for Jerry opening the wallet even if he haven't seen it in 15 years.

Hahn meant it when he said they'd have a seat at the table, damnit. Whether that ever leads to them actually signing a ~100M caliber player (or in Scherzer's case, potentially record setting AAV), well....

I've thought the Giants made sense as a potential Rodon landing spot. But if they land Cobb or Matz then that can probably be ruled out.

I don't see the players or prospects in the organization to win a bidding war for Reynolds. Would Crochet, Burger/Jose Rodriguez, and one of the Kanny pitchers be enough to get it done? Would the Sox want to deal Crochet when he's such a vital part of the pitching staff? He seems like a tough guy for the Sox to acquire, but I'd love to see it happen.

Oh, gotchu. I should have looked closer at the graph. Thank you. On the actual projection tables in the link Cease is projected with a higher WAR than Lynn.

ZIPS projects Cease with the 2nd highest WAR in the rotation. Am I missing something here? edit - there's a discrepancy in the image posted and the actual projections on fangraphs. The projections listed inside the article have Cease with a slightly higher WAR projection than Lynn.

Maybe I'm a bit too high here, Loup's track record is longer than Tepera's. But Tepera has posted 2 straight years with strikeout rates above 30%. That'll get you paid. It doesn't take much for ~6M AAV to become 8.5 if the right teams are interested anyways.

2 years 17M with a club option for year 3 feels like it'll be right around what it takes to sign Tepera.

Interesting takeaways/projections, to me ZIPS loves Jake Burger. It's particularly optimistic about his defense, but he has the 6th highest WAR projection amongst position players in the org. ZIPS does not love Eloy and Vaughn. Both have startling projections. ZIPS projects Jose Rodriguez and Yolbert Sanchez as equivalent's for 2022 Leury Garcia. ZIPS projects Carlos Perez better than Seby/Collins. If another team has a similar internal projection/positive scouting report on him, I could see Perez being rule 5'd. ZIPS believes there's more left in the tank for Keuchel as a back end SP. ZIPS believes Cease's breakout was legit and that he's the 2nd best SP on the team. ZIPS doesn't believe Kimbrel is a special reliever anymore. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-chicago-white-sox/

If Mike Moustakas and Max Muncy are capable of playing a passable 2B, it's worth finding out if Burger can do the same.

If Cesar is a better player/hitter than Segura next season, I wouldn't be surprised. There's a worthy conversation to be had on if it's rational for the Sox to flip from acquiring Kimbrel/Cesar to be 2 year solutions and then bailing on it because of 2 bad months. At least in Cesar's case, the Sox could probably bring him back for cheaper than his option price. But hopefully they're aiming higher at 2B and that should have been the plan all along anyways. But I think there's a lot of value in Segura's ability to play a passable SS. Cesar obviously doesn't give you that, and I don't think there's anyone in the organization currently that would project to be above replacement level at SS aside from TA. Even in the best case scenario, it seems like Tim is capped at around 140 games because the Sox give him so many maintenance days during the season. He's been on the IL 3 straight years with various soft tissue injuries. The Sox have to be ready to play a chunk of their season without him next year, whether that's because a soft tissue injury flares up again, or the number of days off he'll naturally get throughout the course of the season.