2017-2018 MLB player movement rumors and reports

[Balta1701]

Yea but the players aren't seeing enough of the profits:

 

Since 1995, MLB’s overall league revenues have increased nearly 650%, going from around $1.4 billion to over $9 billion in 2014. During that same time period, though, MLB payrolls have only increased by around 378%, from roughly $925 million in 1995 to just under $3.5 billion last year.

 

We'll see if the union can remain united enough to commit to a strike. Nobody wants to kill the golden goose but if I'm a MLBPA analyst I'm seeing worrying trends.

Even though the fraction of $ going to the players is going down - the players have seen a payroll boost of a factor of 4 over 20 years. Salaries are doubling every 10 years.

 

Are you willing to risk that so that you can get salaries to double every 8 years instead of 10? Frankly, I wouldn't be. That's what I mean by killing the golden goose.

[southsider2k5]

Even though the fraction of $ going to the players is going down - the players have seen a payroll boost of a factor of 4 over 20 years. Salaries are doubling every 10 years.

 

Are you willing to risk that so that you can get salaries to double every 8 years instead of 10? Frankly, I wouldn't be. That's what I mean by killing the golden goose.

 

The other side of the question is if players decide to rise up, how much damage are the owners willing to risk to their golden goose to keep the players from getting a bigger share?

[Balta1701]

The other side of the question is if players decide to rise up, how much damage are the owners willing to risk to their golden goose to keep the players from getting a bigger share?

If the players pushed it in the next CBA I think the owners would be pretty happy overall and willing to give up a slightly higher revenue fraction, if there's no other major asks. They've had their share go up enough I can't imagine they're willing to risk that kind of revenue growth over a minor share.

[witesoxfan]

What happens if you raise the minimum rookie scale from $500K to $1 mill? Seems like that's the biggest exploit from the owner's perspective. It wouldn't put an end to extreme spending for high end talent, but the value of WAR seemingly goes up (and thus, teams and analysts justify costs) because a team like the Yankees just paid $500K for 8 WAR for Aaron Judge, or $62,500K/WAR. If rookies begin taking on a larger share, it seems to me, at least, that the costs would be spread out a bit more and we might not be discussing $25 million for a player in Darvish who has had Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 3.5 WAR season.

[southsider2k5]

What happens if you raise the minimum rookie scale from $500K to $1 mill? Seems like that's the biggest exploit from the owner's perspective. It wouldn't put an end to extreme spending for high end talent, but the value of WAR seemingly goes up (and thus, teams and analysts justify costs) because a team like the Yankees just paid $500K for 8 WAR for Aaron Judge, or $62,500K/WAR. If rookies begin taking on a larger share, it seems to me, at least, that the costs would be spread out a bit more and we might not be discussing $25 million for a player in Darvish who has had Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 3.5 WAR season.

 

Could be interesting. It would be one that hits at the salary floor teams, and not the cap teams, so that alone would be interesting.

[witesoxfan]

Could be interesting. It would be one that hits at the salary floor teams, and not the cap teams, so that alone would be interesting.

 

Same thought crossed my mind too, but right now, a team goes into the season with a rookie who will make $500K projected at 1 WAR whereas there's a player on the marketplace asking for $8-10 million projected for 2 WAR. Not that it's a huge increase, but raising that to $1 million everywhere for rookies, it seems that there may be a bit more incentive to sign that veteran player and give him a chance because your cost suddenly doubled for the low-cost, low-reward option. And, as a result of increased rookie salaries, the free agent market may reciprocate that response by lowering the demands of that veteran player, so perhaps he's more apt to sign for $5-7 million because there are fewer funds available overall and his market declines as a result.

[southsider2k5]

Chris Cotillo‏Verified account @ChrisCotillo 18m18 minutes ago RHP Chris Young gets $1M guaranteed on Padres deal and can get $6M in incentives. Incentives begin at 5 GS and 30 IP, can max out at roughly 30 GS and 120 IP. $7M max. @jcrasnick 1st.

 

 

[zisk]

What happens if you raise the minimum rookie scale from $500K to $1 mill? Seems like that's the biggest exploit from the owner's perspective. It wouldn't put an end to extreme spending for high end talent, but the value of WAR seemingly goes up (and thus, teams and analysts justify costs) because a team like the Yankees just paid $500K for 8 WAR for Aaron Judge, or $62,500K/WAR. If rookies begin taking on a larger share, it seems to me, at least, that the costs would be spread out a bit more and we might not be discussing $25 million for a player in Darvish who has had Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 3.5 WAR season.

 

Raising the rookie salary is a good idea IMO. Getting to the majors is incredibly hard and being rewarded for it

 

seems quite fair. It would really help guys who only play 1-3 years in the bigs most of all. These guys take a risk by

 

trying to make it and it would stabilize their futures quite a bit for a small amount the MLB pie. Once in a while a long

 

time minor leaguer makes it up to the show and helps a team win a world series[Pablo Ozuna].

[wrathofhahn]

What happens if you raise the minimum rookie scale from $500K to $1 mill? Seems like that's the biggest exploit from the owner's perspective. It wouldn't put an end to extreme spending for high end talent, but the value of WAR seemingly goes up (and thus, teams and analysts justify costs) because a team like the Yankees just paid $500K for 8 WAR for Aaron Judge, or $62,500K/WAR. If rookies begin taking on a larger share, it seems to me, at least, that the costs would be spread out a bit more and we might not be discussing $25 million for a player in Darvish who has had Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 3.5 WAR season.

 

Actually the biggest exploit that exists today isn't the star players. Judge will get paid eventually. Machado will get paid. The top talent always gets paid.

 

The biggest exploit in the system is the middle end talent. For example the 2-3 WAR guys. With there being teams on the rebuild every year it's going to hard for these guys to make the money they used to because teams are starting to figure out they can fill holes via trade much cheaper.

[Jerksticks]

I wonder if this becomes an era of 6 or so super teams every year, then does that hurt the trade market? Once the super teams have what they need are the rebuilding teams really going to be casting off prospects for Chris Archers? Maybe adding more wild cards would help that.

[Balta1701]

I wonder if this becomes an era of 6 or so super teams every year, then does that hurt the trade market? Once the super teams have what they need are the rebuilding teams really going to be casting off prospects for Chris Archers? Maybe adding more wild cards would help that.

The White Sox pulled off 2 enormous trades last offseason in an era of 3 100-win teams. The Yankees made a trade for Sonny Gray this year. The Yankees have that much to trade because they traded Chapman and Miller the year before and that pair of trades defined the world series. We had the NL home run champ traded. We had an all star/silver slugger winner traded.

 

I think all we're missing this year is a "Sale" like deal, and that's in part because of the superteams and in part because of the weak FA market. The big guys are holding back this offseason to get under the luxury tax multi-year penalties because they know what is available on the FA market next year and we're going to have a Yankees/Dodgers fight over Harper. The Red Sox are going to add a bigger bat, but both Hosmer and Martinez are still on the FA market and that has turned into a buyers market with the Yankees and Dodgers sitting out.

 

The Luxury Tax penalties are working and the FA market has saturated this year. This is clearly a 1 year thing. Next year is "Can the White Sox sign Machado before there's a loser in the Harper sweepstakes?", and then that will open some floodgates.

[Jerksticks]

The White Sox pulled off 2 enormous trades last offseason in an era of 3 100-win teams. The Yankees made a trade for Sonny Gray this year. The Yankees have that much to trade because they traded Chapman and Miller the year before and that pair of trades defined the world series. We had the NL home run champ traded. We had an all star/silver slugger winner traded.

 

I think all we're missing this year is a "Sale" like deal, and that's in part because of the superteams and in part because of the weak FA market. The big guys are holding back this offseason to get under the luxury tax multi-year penalties because they know what is available on the FA market next year and we're going to have a Yankees/Dodgers fight over Harper. The Red Sox are going to add a bigger bat, but both Hosmer and Martinez are still on the FA market and that has turned into a buyers market with the Yankees and Dodgers sitting out.

 

The Luxury Tax penalties are working and the FA market has saturated this year. This is clearly a 1 year thing. Next year is "Can the White Sox sign Machado before there's a loser in the Harper sweepstakes?", and then that will open some floodgates.

I agree the luxury tax is working. I like that point. I hope this establishes a nice steady cycle of teams going from rebuilding>competing>super team>tear down>rebuilding. If the super teams get stacked, who do teams trade with if they want retool? Not saying this is correct or that it is going to end up being like this...I just hope it doesn't.

[ptatc]

I think the only league right now where they're anywhere close to risking all the gains of the last 10 years via labor issues is the NFL. Everyone in baseball is still getting rich. Owners, players both. Just an interesting trend to see teams ponying up for fewer years to avoid the long term risk.

Welcome to the post-PED era.

[ptatc]

Actually the biggest exploit that exists today isn't the star players. Judge will get paid eventually. Machado will get paid. The top talent always gets paid.

 

The biggest exploit in the system is the middle end talent. For example the 2-3 WAR guys. With there being teams on the rebuild every year it's going to hard for these guys to make the money they used to because teams are starting to figure out they can fill holes via trade much cheaper.

This will be the interesting part. With some fan bases willing to allow teams to tank and be bad for a few years, the middle level players may be in trouble.

[oldsox]

This will be the interesting part. With some fan bases willing to allow teams to tank and be bad for a few years, the middle level players may be in trouble.

I don't think so. Maybe their agents will have to work a little harder or longer, but they will always outsmart the GMs/owners.

[Kyyle23]

I don't think so. Maybe their agents will have to work a little harder or longer, but they will always outsmart the GMs/owners.

 

Gonna keep repeating that, huh

[Texsox]

Gonna keep repeating that, huh

Those guys are powerless against agents like Boras.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Morosi‏Verified account @jonmorosi 2h2 hours ago Source: #STLCards remain involved in pursuit of Eric Hosmer, among other options to upgrade lineup. Cardinals also interested in third basemen, including Josh Donaldson in trade. Matt Carpenter’s versatility means Cardinals could add a 1B as easily as a 3B. @MLB @MLBNetwork

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 55m55 minutes ago in addition to the $2.15M salary, zach duke has $1.5M in incentives. 200K for 40 and 50 games. 300K for 55 and 60 games, 500K for 65 games. $3.65M possible. #twins

 

 

[Brian]

Royals offered Hosmer 7 years and 147 mil. BAHAHAHAHAHA

Please sign!

[southsider2k5]

Royals offered Hosmer 7 years and 147 mil. BAHAHAHAHAHA

Please sign!

 

Yeah, if Hosmer is worth this, Jose Abreu has some pretty huge value.

[LittleHurt05]

Royals offered Hosmer 7 years and 147 mil. BAHAHAHAHAHA

Please sign!

 

He probably tops my most disliked player list, so while it would be annoying to see him 19 more times a season, seeing the Royals with an awful contract is great. He has had 3 pretty good seasons and 3 replacement player seasons.

 

fWAR

2012: -1.7

2013: 3.2

2014: 0.0

2015: 3.5

2016: -0.1

2017: 4.1

[Bob Sacamano]

The Royals really should be rebuilding. Unless they think they can get bargains to replace the guys they are losing.

Edited January 3, 2018 by soxfan2014

[Balta1701]

The Royals really should be rebuilding. Unless they think they can get bargains to replace the guys they are losing.

They already have a couple of guys who made strong impacts last year early in their careers, so they might be able to talk themselves into thinking "we still have a shot at the wild card!", but yeah I totally agree they don't have a shot against Cleveland in 2018 or Chicago in 2020 and that's where I'd be putting my targets after seeing how well the wild card slot competition has worked the last few years.

Yet, if you look at Sunday’s lineup, with Merrifield batting leadoff, rookie Jorge Bonifacio in right field and Cheslor Cuthbert at third base, that’s three positions held down by post-process products of the system. Bonafacio ranks 17th among rookies in WAR this season. And Cuthbert, who has battled injuries this season, capably filled in for Moustakas last year and looks like a big league regular.

 

Meanwhile, the club still has Raul Mondesi finishing off his development in Triple-A, where he has a .873 OPS at age 21. While he has struggled so far in 198 big league plate appearances, the more important fact is that Mondesi has already reached the game’s highest levels at such a young age.

[Dick Allen]

In the ESPN.COM column on remaining free agents and where they will sign, for Moustakis, they gave the White Sox as best bet. I always figured the way Hawk went on and on about him, he was highly regarded at 35th and Shields. You have to wonder if his knee surgery hurt his defense, and if so, if it's permanent, but if they are being realistic, and his price is down, his bat would look really good at GRF.

 

I would think if KC and the Sox were offering the same dough, he would stay where he's at.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Dick Allen