Moncada

[reiks12]

12 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

What concerns me is that it has just gone ridiculously south on him. Moncada is 9/74 with 33 K since the ASB. That is absolutely putrid. It isn't just 18 games. 

In May he hit .197

In June he hit .205

July was .231 

.107 through a week in August. 

His April props up his entire season, in which he hit .273. 

Since May 1 he's below Mendoza. Roughly half of a season. 

Also,  He hit .188 in July and August last year. 

Evidence is mounting he's either nowhere near ready or completely overmatched at the MLB level. 

I looked this all up at Fangraphs. 

He had a hot streak in September 2017 and April 2018 but otherwise it has been a whole lot of bad.  

September 2017-April 2018: 55/203 for a .270 BA with 77 K

The rest of his time in the majors with the White Sox: 81/414 for a .195 BA. and 191 K 

His wRC+ is down to 89 for the season. 

I cant read these stats and feel any hint of optimism. 81/414 with 191Ks? Thats atrocious, thats unbelievable.

[ChiSox59]

13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

What concerns me is that it has just gone ridiculously south on him. Moncada is 9/74 with 33 K since the ASB. That is absolutely putrid. It isn't just 18 games. 

In May he hit .197

In June he hit .205

July was .231 

.107 through a week in August. 

His April props up his entire season, in which he hit .273. 

Since May 1 he's below Mendoza. Roughly half of a season. 

Also,  He hit .188 in July and August last year. 

Evidence is mounting he's either nowhere near ready or completely overmatched at the MLB level. 

I looked this all up at Fangraphs. 

He had a hot streak in September 2017 and April 2018 but otherwise it has been a whole lot of bad.  

September 2017-April 2018: 55/203 for a .270 BA with 77 K

The rest of his time in the majors with the White Sox: 81/414 for a .195 BA. and 191 K 

His wRC+ is down to 89 for the season. 

Yikes.  Gotta admit that is pretty damn ugly when reading through it.  

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, reiks12 said:

I cant read these stats and feel any hint of optimism. 81/414 with 191Ks? Thats atrocious, thats unbelievable.

He eliminated about 55 games worth of data points to make the stats look that bad. It's cherry-picked and shouldn't be something that shocks you. 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

He eliminated about 55 games worth of data points to make the stats look that bad. It's cherry-picked and shouldn't be something that shocks you. 

I am a big Moncada fan and I do think he'll be fine eventually.  But only a small portion of that post was cherry picked.  The following is not, and its still really bad.

What concerns me is that it has just gone ridiculously south on him. Moncada is 9/74 with 33 K since the ASB. That is absolutely putrid. It isn't just 18 games. 

In May he hit .197

In June he hit .205

July was .231 

.107 through a week in August. 

His April props up his entire season, in which he hit .273. 

Since May 1 he's below Mendoza. Roughly half of a season. 

Also,  He hit .188 in July and August last year. 

Evidence is mounting he's either nowhere near ready or completely overmatched at the MLB level. 

His wRC+ is down to 89 for the season. 

 

Edited August 9, 2018 by ChiSox59

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am a big Moncada fan and I do think he'll be fine eventually.  But only a small portion of that post was cherry picked.  The following is not, and its still really bad.

I'm a huge Moncada fan too. I used to think he'd be fine eventually, but going through his splits on fangraphs made me change my mind. I've taken it from "he'll be fine eventually" to "We'll see" This is coming from the guy who said that if he puts it all together he could be a notch below Trout. 

Edited August 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Greg Hibbard]

His July average being .231 isn't really telling us the whole story. His OPS that month was .749.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Greg Hibbard said:

His July average being .231 isn't really telling us the whole story. His OPS that month was .749.

Moncada's entire potential to be a superstar revolves around the development of his hit tool. He oozes a lot of other talent, so it doesn't shock me that even at .230-.250 he has an acceptable OPS. If he can ever make enough contact to get to .280+ he'll be a star. How many hits does Moncada get? This is one case where a traditional stat(batting average) tells a lot of the story. If Moncada makes contact, the rest will take care of itself. 

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada's entire potential to be a superstar revolves around the development of his hit tool. He oozes a lot of other talent, so it doesn't shock me that even at .230-.250 he has an acceptable OPS. If he can ever make enough contact to get to .280+ he'll be a star. How many hits does Moncada get? This is one case where a traditional stat(batting average) tells a lot of the story. If Moncada makes contact, the rest will take care of itself. 

I don't think he'll ever hit .280 in a season. I do think his peak years will be something like .265/.345/.490 though. Good for an .835 OPS. 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't think he'll ever hit .280 in a season. I do think his peak years will be something like .265/.345/.490 though. Good for an .835 OPS. 

You are probably right. That is a solid MLB regular but by no means a star or superstar. A lot of people expect stardom at the very least from Moncada. A lot of people are going to be disappointed if that is as good as he ever gets. If you're going to hit .240-260 most of the time you better play some damn good defense as well. If he stays bad defensively and is only a solid MLB regular most will be calling him a bust even then. the #1 prospect in baseball should be a star or superstar. Brace yourselves. 

[southsider2k5]

This is exactly how I feel about a lot of the Moncada talk here.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

God I hate KenWo

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This is exactly how I feel about a lot of the Moncada talk here.

 

Also this.

 

[Jose Abreu]

19 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You are probably right. That is a solid MLB regular but by no means a star or superstar. A lot of people expect stardom at the very least from Moncada. A lot of people are going to be disappointed if that is as good as he ever gets. If you're going to hit .240-260 most of the time you better play some damn good defense as well. If he stays bad defensively and is only a solid MLB regular most will be calling him a bust even then. the #1 prospect in baseball should be a star or superstar. Brace yourselves. 

The good news is his range stats are top 3 in baseball for second basemen so he has all the tools to improve defensively. And he has, to an extent, recently.

 

If (big if) we turn 3 years of Sale into 6 years of a solid starting 2B (even if not a superstar), 6 years of a MLB starting pitcher in Kopech (ace potential but, barring injury, probably no worse than a #3 with development), and whatever Basabe becomes, that's still a really good deal IMO. 

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

God I hate KenWo

the guy responding to him has been just as bad recently, IMO.  

[Jack Parkman]

My bar for an MLB player being awful is a lot higher than Adam Engel. Engel belongs nowhere near a major league ballpark. 

[Jack Parkman]

21 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

The good news is his range stats are top 3 in baseball for second basemen so he has all the tools to improve defensively. And he has, to an extent, recently.

 

If (big if) we turn 3 years of Sale into 6 years of a solid starting 2B (even if not a superstar), 6 years of a MLB starting pitcher in Kopech (ace potential but, barring injury, probably no worse than a #3 with development), and whatever Basabe becomes, that's still a really good deal IMO. 

I'm glad to hear that, as I have been arguing that a lot of Moncada's errors are because he surprises himself that he got to that ball. His range is absolutely ridiculous. I don't think it is out of the question that Moncada develops into a defensive stud. I've pretty much given up hope that he'll ever hit .300(I thought that as recently as the ASB, but I've abandoned that thought as evidence mounts to the contrary) in a season, but I'll be happy if he fluctuates between .265-.285. He's just probably not going to be that superstar that everyone thought the Sox were getting.  Still a good player, and probably within the top 30% of MLB players. I think that the question now is if Moncada will be a 2.5-4 Win player or a 4.5-6. I think his realistic ceiling has been adjusted from "sky's the limit" to probably in the 5.5-6 win range. 

Edited August 9, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm glad to hear that, as I have been arguing that a lot of Moncada's errors are because he surprises himself that he got to that ball. His range is absolutely ridiculous. I don't think it is out of the question that Moncada develops into a defensive stud. I've pretty much given up hope that he'll ever hit .300(I thought that as recently as the ASB, but I've abandoned that thought as evidence mounts to the contrary) in a season, but I'll be happy if he fluctuates between .265-.285. He's just probably not going to be that superstar that everyone thought the Sox were getting.  Still a good player, and probably within the top 30% of MLB players. I think that the question now is if Moncada will be a 2.5-4 Win player or a 4.5-6. I think his realistic ceiling has been adjusted from "sky's the limit" to probably in the 5.5-6 win range. 

I don't see any reason why his ceiling needs to be adjusted down. He may always strike out a ton but there's absolutely a ton of power in that bat, we've all seen it and drooled over it at times. Kris Bryant hit .292 despite 150 strikeouts because he also hit 39 home runs that year. Moncada should be able to pick up a few hits beyond that due to athleticism. 

The ceiling is still the same. The question is the likelihood he's going to reach it. 

[Dam8610]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

My bar for an MLB player being awful is a lot higher than Adam Engel. Engel belongs nowhere near a major league ballpark. 

That's not fair. I don't see any reason he should be denied the right to buy a ticket and take in the game like any of us.

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

That's not fair. I don't see any reason he should be denied the right to buy a ticket and take in the game like any of us.

Hahaha 

[iamshack]

4 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I don't think he'll ever hit .280 in a season. I do think his peak years will be something like .265/.345/.490 though. Good for an .835 OPS. 

I think it’s ridiculous to make these types of proclamations at this stage. 

While it’s possible the guy may never really put his approach together because of the hit tool, I think there is still a very real chance we see a huge step change type of jump from him. So many of these problems are occurring due to the counts he gets himself in. Some fairly minor changes, primarily an understanding that he needs to attack early, I think can turn him into an entirely different player. Right now, he’s taking far too many pitches, and the League understands that it can get ahead of him early. Most mlb hitters see their odds of being productive drastically reduce when behind in the count, particularly with two strikes. Yoan needs to change that by being aggressive early in the count. Once he inflicts enough damage early in counts, pitchers will stop throwing so many strikes early and he’ll have an opportunity to work counts more. That will then allow his zone recognition to become a true weapon again. Additionally, once he begins hitting, he will get the benefit of the doubt from the umpires more. However, until he can get himself into more hitters counts, he’s going to struggle. Almost all hitters do.

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, iamshack said:

I think it’s ridiculous to make these types of proclamations at this stage. 

I agree with literally everything you said after this, but to this comment alone, I didn't mean that as a bad thing. Even before this year, I still never thought he'd hit .280 in a season. But that obviously doesn't mean he'll be bad, I still think he'll be one of the best hitters in our lineup along with Eloy, Robert, Adolfo, and hopefully a big FA. His game just isn't conducive to being a high batting average guy, but his on base and power potential give him the ability to be fantastic regardless. 

[flavum]

This was good...

 

Edited August 14, 2018 by flavum

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, flavum said:

This was good...

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLBNetwork/status/1029174248634507266/video/1

I hate to pull the pitchfork out, but please fire Steverson & Sparks.  Maybe it’s not fair, but whatever they’re doing with Moncada isn’t working.

[SoxAce]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I hate to pull the pitchfork out, but please fire Steverson & Sparks.  Maybe it’s not fair, but whatever they’re doing with Moncada isn’t working.

There's only so much a coach can do with a player on the mental side. I remember there was a scout (and I know fathom remembers this too) that said Moncada was a bit of a mental head case going back to Boston. As Casey said you can have all the tools in the world but if you can't think the game at a high level... well... I think he'll eventually develop that but it's going to take time. Some guys already are blessed with that (this is why I said on the GT I don't worry about Eloy at all in that regard) and some figure it out later. Lets hope Moncada figures it out.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

There's only so much a coach can do with a player on the mental side. I remember there was a scout (and I know fathom remembers this too) that said Moncada was a bit of a mental head case going back to Boston. As Casey said you can have all the tools in the world but if you can't think the game at a high level... well... I think he'll eventually develop that but it's going to take time. Some guys already are blessed with that (this is why I said on the GT I don't worry about Eloy at all in that regard) and some figure it out later. Lets hope Moncada figures it out.

I don’t disagree with anything you’re saying, but I think there are definitely things the coaching staff can do help with the adjustment process.  No doubt the bigger burden of blame falls on the player himself, but at some point you got to roll the dice and hope a new voice can help make things right.  Moncada is simply too important to the rebuild to give Steverson the benefit of the doubt.