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What is up with Lucas Giolito?


wrathofhahn
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I'd give him one more start before sending him to Charlotte. See if he can have a decent start in terms of run prevention while not walking/HBP-ing the world. If he only has 1-2 walks and gets lit up like a cheap Christmas tree again, send him down. 

I'm super disappointed in Giolito this year. I really thought he had turned the corner in last September and in Spring Training, but I guess that is why you have to ignore September and Spring Training stats. If he goes down I'd imagine he stays there until September and gets a 2-3 month tryout in 2019 before they give up on him. 

I've never seen someone look so dominant in the spring and not carry anything over to the regular season as a pitcher. Looked like the fastball/curveball combo was back as he was sitting 93-94 and topping out at 96 and was throwing snapdragon curveballs. I don't know if you can find that video, but go look at that Cubs game that he pitched in during ST and that looked like an ace in the making. Cub hitters were late on the fastball and his curve was filthy. That game is what led me to write the glowing thread about him in April. I thought he was having trouble getting loose in the cold. It turns out he just didn't carry anything from spring over to the regular season.  I wish he could be that guy again. Prospects fail, and I guess he may be one of them. It is a shame, I really liked him as a pitcher. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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39 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'd give him one more start before sending him to Charlotte. See if he can have a decent start in terms of run prevention while not walking/HBP-ing the world. If he only has 1-2 walks and gets lit up like a cheap Christmas tree again, send him down. 

I'm super disappointed in Giolito this year. I really thought he had turned the corner in last September and in Spring Training, but I guess that is why you have to ignore September and Spring Training stats. If he goes down I'd imagine he stays there until September and gets a 2-3 month tryout in 2019 before they give up on him. 

I've never seen someone look so dominant in the spring and not carry anything over to the regular season as a pitcher. Looked like the fastball/curveball combo was back as he was sitting 93-94 and topping out at 96 and was throwing snapdragon curveballs. I don't know if you can find that video, but go look at that Cubs game that he pitched in during ST and that looked like an ace in the making. Cub hitters were late on the fastball and his curve was filthy. That game is what led me to write the glowing thread about him in April. I thought he was having trouble getting loose in the cold. It turns out he just didn't carry anything from spring over to the regular season.  I wish he could be that guy again. Prospects fail, and I guess he may be one of them. It is a shame, I really liked him as a pitcher. 

The good news is we are rebuilding and can be patient with him.  I saw that Cubs start and he looked like a completely different pitcher.  If there’s even a 5% chance that guy is still in there, I want to give this kid every shot to realize his potential.  I think your plan for him makes perfect sense.  Let him spend as much time as needed in AAA this year and give him one last opportunity as a starter in 2019.  He should have a good three months before Hansen & Dunning are knocking at the door.  In the interim, give his spot to Rodon and eventually have Kopech & Stephens join Lopez & Covey in the rotation.  Giolito can take whoever appears weaker out of Covey & Stephens to start 2019.  If he fails, we should have options ready to go.

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On 5/25/2018 at 8:40 PM, ptatc said:

He only started laying it in there after he was trying toover throw it in the first inning. His mechanics are so off he really doesnt know what to do. As far as if he can fix, who knows. Its mostly mental. He is the pitcher version of Konerko where he gets in his own head too much.

If he gets comfortable and confidenr he can cruise through a game. If he has issues early he is all messed up. His bad innings are the first and second. Thats why there is hope but also why there is no definite answer. He reminds me of a older pitcher who has lost his stuff and is trying to reinvent himself.

He is very intelligent, but unfortunately right now his mechanics are an absolute mess and it is likely that his confidence is as well. I know there is the option discussion, but at this point, I don't think sending him down to the minors would be the worse plan. Give him a distinct plan and allow him to work on his improvements at the minor league level while hopefully building up his confidence.  Part of the rebuild will be the fact that some of our better prospects won't pan out and that is natural..at the same time we have to hope we identify a few stars, develop a good number of guys as well as hit on some diamonds in the rough.  

All I know is I personally like Giolito from just the overall individual perspective and will be pulling for him. Gavin Floyd had his struggles before becoming a quality arm (not great arm). The reality is Giolito was not the prospect he once was when he was acquired and he was always going to be more of a project than fans thought (as we all latched on to his previous hype), but the talent exists and he has flashed stuff at times (including even last year) but he's out of whack right now and he needs to get his confidence and mechanics back. Who knows if the fastball will reappear but he's worth being patient with (imo).  Plus it isn't like we have a bunch of guys who he is holding back. I still feel better about Gio than I do Fulmer (who is just a cruel reminder that top picks in baseball are anything but guarantees).  

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For whatever reason. It seems that all his pitches are just a little weaker than they were a few months ago.  Less zip on the fast ball and bite on the curve. That said,  I recognize that he  faced one of the best teams and was throwing to one of the worst catchers on a team that does not appear to be trying to win even if they really are trying t win. .

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26 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

He is very intelligent, but unfortunately right now his mechanics are an absolute mess and it is likely that his confidence is as well. I know there is the option discussion, but at this point, I don't think sending him down to the minors would be the worse plan. Give him a distinct plan and allow him to work on his improvements at the minor league level while hopefully building up his confidence.  Part of the rebuild will be the fact that some of our better prospects won't pan out and that is natural..at the same time we have to hope we identify a few stars, develop a good number of guys as well as hit on some diamonds in the rough.  

All I know is I personally like Giolito from just the overall individual perspective and will be pulling for him. Gavin Floyd had his struggles before becoming a quality arm (not great arm). The reality is Giolito was not the prospect he once was when he was acquired and he was always going to be more of a project than fans thought (as we all latched on to his previous hype), but the talent exists and he has flashed stuff at times (including even last year) but he's out of whack right now and he needs to get his confidence and mechanics back. Who knows if the fastball will reappear but he's worth being patient with (imo).  Plus it isn't like we have a bunch of guys who he is holding back. I still feel better about Gio than I do Fulmer (who is just a cruel reminder that top picks in baseball are anything but guarantees).  

I'm with you 100%. I guess it depends on how quickly the Sox move toward trying to win games in relation to how patient they can be with him after this point. I don't think they're going to punt on him after ST next year, but it wouldn't surprise me if it took him a long time to figure it out. He reminds me of Tiger Woods(not to say he's anywhere as good at his sport as Tiger was)  when he was struggling through his swing change. He broke something that didn't need to be fixed, and now he has to re-learn everything from scratch. He can't go out there and just pitch, he's thinking about mechanics constantly. Similar to a golfer, if you're thinking about mechanics you've already lost. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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39 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

He is very intelligent, but unfortunately right now his mechanics are an absolute mess and it is likely that his confidence is as well. I know there is the option discussion, but at this point, I don't think sending him down to the minors would be the worse plan. Give him a distinct plan and allow him to work on his improvements at the minor league level while hopefully building up his confidence.  Part of the rebuild will be the fact that some of our better prospects won't pan out and that is natural..at the same time we have to hope we identify a few stars, develop a good number of guys as well as hit on some diamonds in the rough.  

All I know is I personally like Giolito from just the overall individual perspective and will be pulling for him. Gavin Floyd had his struggles before becoming a quality arm (not great arm). The reality is Giolito was not the prospect he once was when he was acquired and he was always going to be more of a project than fans thought (as we all latched on to his previous hype), but the talent exists and he has flashed stuff at times (including even last year) but he's out of whack right now and he needs to get his confidence and mechanics back. Who knows if the fastball will reappear but he's worth being patient with (imo).  Plus it isn't like we have a bunch of guys who he is holding back. I still feel better about Gio than I do Fulmer (who is just a cruel reminder that top picks in baseball are anything but guarantees).  

 

A lot of people seem to jump off the bridge about young prospects pretty quick. Last year Giolito pitched 173 innings. Prior to that it was 130 and 117 before that. Even veterans sometimes get dead arm, have issues with inning jumps etc. The Sox have the luxury of not being anywhere close to caring about wins and losses. As long as he can work on a regular basis at the major league level, there really isnt a huge need to send him down.

When you read some of the arguments for Kopech/Eloy to come up to majors, its because they need to take their lumps now, so that they will be ready to compete in a few years. The same really should apply here. Keep letting him work, hopefully he starts to learn how to pitch when he doesnt have his best stuff, when things arent going his way. 

The only reason Id send him down is if somehow Cooper thinks he needs a different voice/ change of scenery. But I have a feeling Cooper is listing off names of guys who had bad stats this early and then figured it all out. 

Edited by Soxbadger
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26 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

 

A lot of people seem to jump off the bridge about young prospects pretty quick. Last year Giolito pitched 173 innings. Prior to that it was 130 and 117 before that. Even veterans sometimes get dead arm, have issues with inning jumps etc. The Sox have the luxury of not being anywhere close to caring about wins and losses. As long as he can work on a regular basis at the major league level, there really isnt a huge need to send him down.

When you read some of the arguments for Kopech/Eloy to come up to majors, its because they need to take their lumps now, so that they will be ready to compete in a few years. The same really should apply here. Keep letting him work, hopefully he starts to learn how to pitch when he doesnt have his best stuff, when things arent going his way. 

The only reason Id send him down is if somehow Cooper thinks he needs a different voice/ change of scenery. But I have a feeling Cooper is listing off names of guys who had bad stats this early and then figured it all out. 

Agree with everything you said. I'm 100% okay leaving him up in the majors but also am not opposed to a move to the minors (I certainly don't think that spells the end of his career). The reality is for many prospects / young players, the jump to the majors is filled with adversity and it takes time to overcome those struggles. Some will overcome and others will not, but this team has the luxury to be patient and should be patient. To be frank, I think a key factor in the Sox lack of player development (albeit far from the only factor) is the fact that they didn't have the "luxury" or "willingness" to be patient with its young players and allow them to develop. Far too often it seemed like the young players the Sox brought up (back when we were trying to contend on the fly) were brought up with the full intention of putting the team over the top and if we didn't get instant rewards, the players would get bounced around, etc.  It was a flawed philosophy which did not instill confidence and really enable a player to "go through the motions" to ultimately grow, thrive and excel at the big league level.  

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7 minutes ago, Chisoxfn said:

Agree with everything you said. I'm 100% okay leaving him up in the majors but also am not opposed to a move to the minors (I certainly don't think that spells the end of his career). The reality is for many prospects / young players, the jump to the majors is filled with adversity and it takes time to overcome those struggles. Some will overcome and others will not, but this team has the luxury to be patient and should be patient. To be frank, I think a key factor in the Sox lack of player development (albeit far from the only factor) is the fact that they didn't have the "luxury" or "willingness" to be patient with its young players and allow them to develop. Far too often it seemed like the young players the Sox brought up (back when we were trying to contend on the fly) were brought up with the full intention of putting the team over the top and if we didn't get instant rewards, the players would get bounced around, etc.  It was a flawed philosophy which did not instill confidence and really enable a player to "go through the motions" to ultimately grow, thrive and excel at the big league level.  

 

I agree on the rushing prospects part. The prospect was always their to "fix" or "help" something. Also I dont think being sent down is the end of the world, but I guess I feel like Cooper is the coach I have the most faith in the entire organization. So Id rather have him working with him.

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8 hours ago, Soxbadger said:

 

I agree on the rushing prospects part. The prospect was always their to "fix" or "help" something. Also I dont think being sent down is the end of the world, but I guess I feel like Cooper is the coach I have the most faith in the entire organization. So Id rather have him working with him.

For me it all comes down to his stuff unless he has a chance of getting it back all he is a name at this point.

The upside for him at this point doesn't really warrant all this discussion his stuff is 4th/5th starter quality even if he gets fixed. I honestly don't understand why we just don't send him down and be done with it. If he works it out in the minors great if not then we move on next year.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

FWIW, it was mentioned on the broadcast Saturday that Coop said Giolito had the best side session he's had since he was acquired by the Sox. 

They have been saying that he looks great in the bullpen but when the game starts he breaks down

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1 minute ago, Kyyle23 said:

They have been saying that he looks great in the bullpen but when the game starts he breaks down

I've heard that too. Stone said during his last start that he was flying open and falling all over the place, and I started watching him and noticed that when he was under control on the mound, his velocity went up and he was in the 93-94 range, and when he was flying open/falling off the mound, he lost 2-3 mph on the fastball. 

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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

FWIW, it was mentioned on the broadcast Saturday that Coop said Giolito had the best side session he's had since he was acquired by the Sox. 

When he walks three in the first inning in his next start, we'll realize how meaningless this was. 

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29 minutes ago, Tony said:

Thanks for sharing.  It bears repeating that we have had a couple of very similar pitchers to Lucas in Jon Garland and Gavin Floyd.  I know a decent amount of people have quit on him already, but with what Washington did to him, and then trying to rebuild both his motion and his confidence, it isn't going to be an overnight thing.

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On 5/29/2018 at 11:38 PM, fathom said:

Would love to see spin rate metrics for his fastball and curve this year compared to last year and the year before that. 

2018

Four Seam - 2086
Curve - 2355

2017

Four Seam - 2123
Curve - 2538

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito-608337?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

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Also almost all of his pitches are terrible. We knew his FB is bad if it is under 95 (straight and mediocre spin) and his change isn't the greatest but his CB which was highly touted also has negative pitch value on FG.

 

the only pitch with a positive value is his slider. that is a good thing and maybe he should ramp it's usage up but then again it is just one good pitch. maybe this at least gives him a reliever floor because one solid pitch obviously isn't getting it done twice or thrice through the lineup.

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1 hour ago, Kyyle23 said:

They have been saying that he looks great in the bullpen but when the game starts he breaks down

This makes total sense.  Highly intelligent guy who is thinking to much.  He can do it in the pen at max focus/thought.  When he gets on the mound, you add one more thing to think about(batter) and it becomes information overload.  I knew a guy who hit the golf ball great on the range but had a hundred swing thoughts.  When he got on the course adding in one more thing, the pin, overwhelmed him and he broke down.  Maybe having someone stand in during part of his side sessions would help.  He is just having to think to much to do it right.  

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