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Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin


Chisoxfn
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3 minutes ago, Big Hurtin said:

How far away are Colas and Cespedes, realistically?

 

Cespedes has not shown that he’s a likely big leaguer based on his current performance. You would not be citing him if he had a different last name. He needs to substantially improve.

Colas has never played stateside so at least a year if he comes out on fire at a low level. More might be more realistic.

Under the best circumstances at least a year. More likely longer or not at all.

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Just now, Balta1701 said:

To take on Kimbrel’s full salary would cost the Dodgers $25 million. If they’re spending that money on their own, they will just sign Jansen.

Right, they go three years on the familiar quantity and simply keep Lux and Bellinger, waiting on rebounds…they don’t need either guy to play to MVP form, just 2-3 fWAR would be acceptable with all the star power on that team.  Same with Turner, whose veteran presence and leadership is just as importance as his statistical output. 
 

Too big a risk that Kimbrel implodes under that pressure cooker of expectations, similar to Boston.

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8 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I just want Rodon…ugh I hate that they let that sort of arm walk. So special. He is going to kill it with Giants. Kill it. I couldn’t have cared less if they did much more than that to be honest. Cause even with scrubs at 2B and RF if I got Rodon, Cease, Lynn and Gio…knowing I got Kopech, Lopez, Velasquez…whomever else at the 5…plus the rest of the regulars in that lineup..I’m good. 

Yea this is where I'm at odds with a lot of people. Me and you wanted Rodon back. Lots of people round here didnt and I get it.

But he was the best $3M dollars ever spent. He went above and beyond the call of duty and the Sox pitched him like he was Verlander in his prime with no regard for managing his innings the whole 1st half of the season. Starter pitchers innings pitched has been trending downward for years and the Sox just pound him into the ground when he basically hadn't pitched in 2 years.

Then it felt like 3/4 of board didn't want to resign him after he provided like $28M  in surplus value to the Sox in 2021. They won't get that kind of value from anyone in 2022. That's a once in a generation type surplus value. And there are still plenty of people here who agreed that he shouldn't have got a QO and think the Sox would've been crazy to try to resign him.

The way things are going now I'd have taken Rodon in a heartbeat and I said that before things degenerated.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

To take on Kimbrel’s full salary would cost the Dodgers $25 million. If they’re spending that money on their own, they will just sign Jansen.

Right.  Any trade involving Kimbrel for Lux would necessarily require the Sox to pick up the salary (or at least enough of it for the Dodgers to avoid the tax threshold).  A lot depends on if that's a hard line for the Dodgers though.  If they're willing to go over, then they'll just re-sign Janssen.

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3 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:

Right.  Any trade involving Kimbrel for Lux would necessarily require the Sox to pick up the salary (or at least enough of it for the Dodgers to avoid the tax threshold).  A lot depends on if that's a hard line for the Dodgers though.  If they're willing to go over, then they'll just re-sign Janssen.

There’s no threshold to avoid. The Dodgers are over the Cohen tax according to Spotrac by over $10 million. Every dollar of payroll they add is taxed at 60%.

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1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Funny you say that because I was just thinking, "Man, what happened to Ray Ray? He used to be one of my favorite posters, and now I want to strangle him."

Turns out I'm probably just too positive/optimistic most of the time, so I probably agree with you most of the time during the season and get annoyed with you during the offseason. I look forward to being friends again starting April 8. Cheers!

As currently constructed, I think this is a top 7-8 roster in baseball. My frustrations this off-season was they were a signing or two away from being a sure cut top 3 roster imo. 

Any of the teams in the top 10 on paper could become the best team in baseball once games actually start; a little positive variance, some injury luck, a couple of career years and wahla, you're right there. I think the Sox have the capability with some growth and development, some good health and a couple bounce back years.

The job of a front office is to limit the "If's" in the equation. They didn't do that at all this off-season. Defensively the Sox are just archaic and bad defense is less likely to experience some positive variance/regression. It's not like having some good or bad batter ball luck leading to good offensive or pitching seasons. 

The correct comment is everyone has pitching depth issues/concerns. The Sox aren't alone. I dog on Keuchel as the 5 because he sucks, but the Dodgers are going to be rolling out Heaney and Gonsolin as their 4-5 for quite some time; assuming Bauer gets a lengthy suspension. The Yankees are banking on Severino and Taillon again, guys who are never healthy.

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3 hours ago, maloney.adam said:

It really all falls on Hahn. With a team with World Series aspirations, he needs to be able to sign premium talent. 

He's not in charge. It's the JR TLR Show. People talk about him putting his dick on the table but Hahn was castrated by Jerry when they hired TLR.

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Just now, Lillian said:

I can't see any reason for the Dodgers to trade Lux. He is their future second baseman, and is one place that they can avoid a big salary hit to an already mammoth payroll.

but is he?  They just signed a 2B to a long term deal, thus making him expendable for a win now move

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3 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I can't see any reason for the Dodgers to trade Lux. He is their future second baseman, and is one place that they can avoid a big salary hit to an already mammoth payroll.

The dodgers can afford to pay over personnel mistakes through other prospects or just money.  In short, they don't need to worry about trading a future all star 

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2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

As currently constructed, I think this is a top 7-8 roster in baseball. My frustrations this off-season was they were a signing or two away from being a sure cut top 3 roster imo. 

Any of the teams in the top 10 on paper could become the best team in baseball once games actually start; a little positive variance, some injury luck, a couple of career years and wahla, you're right there. I think the Sox have the capability with some growth and development, some good health and a couple bounce back years.

The job of a front office is to limit the "If's" in the equation. They didn't do that at all this off-season. Defensively the Sox are just archaic and bad defense is less likely to experience some positive variance/regression. It's not like having some good or bad batter ball luck leading to good offensive or pitching seasons. 

The correct comment is everyone has pitching depth issues/concerns. The Sox aren't alone. I dog on Keuchel as the 5 because he sucks, but the Dodgers are going to be rolling out Heaney and Gonsolin as their 4-5 for quite some time; assuming Bauer gets a lengthy suspension. The Yankees are banking on Severino and Taillon again, guys who are never healthy.

Solid post. I don't really disagree with anything you are saying, and the frustrations are justified.

My biggest gripe with the offseason complaints on this board (not just you) is the timing of them. People seem to talk in absolutes ("we didn't sign a RF", etc.) as if the offseason is over. 

Why weren't those same complaints being posted in November?  Well, the answer is obvious...we still had a full offseason to make the moves. So when exactly is the breaking point?  For me, it's April 8.  I won't complain about the lack of moves until I see our opening day roster. But what is the breaking point for others?  Is it a certain date?  Is it when we've spent money on smaller free agents?  Is it when our supposed top targets have signed with other teams?

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I'm thinking our RF, Kimbrel and SP moves are all contingent on Conforto.

Option 1: Sign Conforto, trade for Manaea, trade Kimbrel for prospects or backup catcher. Maybe even a three way that sends prospects to Oakland.
Option 2: Trade Kimbrel to TB for one of Meadows or Kiermaier. I'd love Conforto, but the projections don't see that much of a different between Conforto, Meadows or Kiermaier. Trade for Manaea.

Fans are waiting on a Manaea or Kimbrel trade when Hahn is waiting for Conforto to decide first.

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Just now, striker said:

I'm thinking our RF, Kimbrel and SP moves are all contingent on Conforto.

Option 1: Sign Conforto, trade for Manaea, trade Kimbrel for prospects or backup catcher. Maybe even a three way that sends prospects to Oakland.
Option 2: Trade Kimbrel to TB for one of Meadows or Kiermaier. I'd love Conforto, but the projections don't see that much of a different between Conforto, Meadows or Kiermaier. Trade for Manaea.

Fans are waiting on a Manaea or Kimbrel trade when Hahn is waiting for Conforto to decide first.

I hope you're right.

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47 minutes ago, Big Hurtin said:

How far away are Colas and Cespedes, realistically?

 

If Colas and/or Cespedes become average everyday regulars in the bigs, that is a huge win.  They should be counted on for absolutely nothing.  Neither of these guys are even top 100 prospects.  

I feel like this should be pinned to every thread. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

If Colas and/or Cespedes become average everyday regulars in the bigs, that is a huge win.  They should be counted on for absolutely nothing.  Neither of these guys are even top 100 prospects.  

I feel like this should be pinned to every thread. 

I agree with this...does Hahn and the scouting team? That is my biggest worry is that Jerry will keep asking them...didn't we commit solid dollars to our cuban pipeline? This pressure will force a need to graduate quickly, and be THE excuse of not committing to outfield long term contracts. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

If Colas and/or Cespedes become average everyday regulars in the bigs, that is a huge win.  They should be counted on for absolutely nothing.  Neither of these guys are even top 100 prospects.  

I feel like this should be pinned to every thread. 

100% this. Cespedes hasn't shown anything that warrants him being penned into major league lineups, and Colas hasn't played a single affiliated game state side. They are prospects. Prospects bust and break your heart more often than not. If one of them pans out, great, but don't count on it.

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9 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

I just want Rodon…ugh I hate that they let that sort of arm walk. So special. He is going to kill it with Giants. Kill it. I couldn’t have cared less if they did much more than that to be honest. Cause even with scrubs at 2B and RF if I got Rodon, Cease, Lynn and Gio…knowing I got Kopech, Lopez, Velasquez…whomever else at the 5…plus the rest of the regulars in that lineup..I’m good. 

Rodon is not special.  He has talent, but he's thrown 669 innings across 7 seasons. Betting $18M that he makes more than 20 starts in 22 is a bad bet.  I am going to side with the people that know more about Rodon and his health better than anyone else in the world on this one. 

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9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If Colas and/or Cespedes become average everyday regulars in the bigs, that is a huge win.  They should be counted on for absolutely nothing.  Neither of these guys are even top 100 prospects.  

I feel like this should be pinned to every thread. 

Bummer

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