Offseason Part 3 - Because Part 2 Was a Dud

[ptatc]

2 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Thank you for agreeing with me.

And I agree with you:

Counting stats do favor the players with greater useage. That means that everyday players > RPs, and SPs > RPs.

Everything you said is true from a particular point of view. However, disagree with your premise that counting stats tell the entire story. you are far too limited on your view of the value of a player when all you do is count. Volume does not equate to importance.

[SonofaRoache]

Another 98 pages and no rumors. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I'm trying to give ptatc the benefit of a fair reply to his query.

And they are fair. I understand your point of view. I just think it is inherently flawed. Not wrong but limited in its scope.

[caulfield12]

Just now, ptatc said:

Everything you said is true from a particular point of view. However, disagree with your premise that counting stats tell the entire story. you are far too limited on your view of the value of a player when all you do is count. Volume does not equate to importance.

I feel a Hawkism coming on, "... but when you do it."

[ptatc]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

Another 98 pages and no rumors. 

We have to entertain ourselves somehow. I'm currently in a virtual meeting about student progress in the clinical experiences. This is much more entertaining.

[ptatc]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

I feel a Hawkism coming on, "... but when you do it."

There is some truth to it. It's just difficult to measure it's importance.

[maloney.adam]

Hello paging Rick, this is Craig. Can you call me? I’m confused.

[CentralChamps21]

I don't have the time to do this anytime soon, but if someone really wants to shed some light on things:

Run three correlations on the 2021 season or if you're really adventurous, a set of seasons.

1. Starters ERA to winning %

2. Bullpen ERA to winning %

3. Team OPS to winning %

My instinct is that #3 will have the lowest correlation, but I'd be interested in the data.

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, CentralChamps21 said:

I don't have the time to do this anytime soon, but if someone really wants to shed some light on things:

Run three correlations on the 2021 season or if you're really adventurous, a set of seasons.

1. Starters ERA to winning %

2. Bullpen ERA to winning %

3. Team OPS to winning %

My instinct is that #3 will have the lowest correlation, but I'd be interested in the data.

We know that ERA isn't really correlated to much as it's somewhat subjective. I think SIERA does a better job but still isn't quite there.

[SonofaRoache]

35 minutes ago, ptatc said:

We have to entertain ourselves somehow. I'm currently in a virtual meeting about student progress in the clinical experiences. This is much more entertaining.

I mean we went another 98 pages without a good rumor. Don't know how we did it. 

[ShoeLessRob]

Just now, SonofaRoache said:

I mean we went another 98 pages without a good rumor. Don't know how we did it. 

Anger 

[MeanJoeCrede]

1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said:

I mean we went another 98 pages without a good rumor. Don't know how we did it. 

99 now

[KrankinSox]

We can't let this go beyond 100 pages.

 

New thread!!

[Leonard Zelig]

5 minutes ago, ShoeLessRob said:

Anger 

I think anger was a few days ago, we have to be to bargaining by now. 

[ShoeLessRob]

1 minute ago, Leonard Zelig said:

I think anger was a few days ago, we have to be to bargaining by now. 

Agreed, I’ll take another BP arm at this point. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

The Brewers and Rays did not "emphasize" relief pitching -- they happened to develop a great deal of it, which is a by-product of developing great pitching in general. The last team to "emphasize" relief pitching the way the Sox have -- by spending a great deal of resources (in both money and players, in our case) acquiring veteran relievers at the peak of their value -- was the Rockies, the consensus laughingstock of the MLB, and it very much did NOT work. And that wasn't surprising, because everyone knows that relief pitcher performance is the most volatile of any position on the diamond, by a lot. 

I think Vaughn is going to hit well, too. The problem with Vaughn is that he's a first baseman, not a right fielder. Engel is a good RF, but he can't hit well. So every night you have to choose a player who can only play well consistently on one side of the ball. Now, what if you had someone who could do both instead? I would call that putting the team in a much better position to win. I think Hahn has pulled us into an illusory universe where he's chained to having certain players on his roster. His explanation for not acquiring a RF has alluded to needing to find at-bats for Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets. But... neither of those players are right fielders. Any other team, when finding themselves in possession of a logjam of interesting MLB-ready prospects in a single position would TRADE one or more of those players to shore up a position they actually needed. Similarly, not signing a RF because Cespedes and/or Colas might be ready in a year or two is nonsense -- the team also just lost a 4+ fWAR pitching season from Carlos Rodon that it hasn't replaced. If you now have a logjam in RF, why not trade a prospect for a pitcher?

Your call for financial prudence is sound, but let's engage in a counter-factual:

Actual WS offseason, in 2022-only dollars committed:

1. Leury Garcia ($5.5M)
2. Josh Harrison ($5.5M)
3. Kendall Graveman ($7M)
4. Joe Kelly ($8.5M)
5. Vince Velasquez ($3M)
TOTAL: $29.5M

What if, instead:

1. Michael Conforto ($25M)
2. Romy Gonzalez (FREE)
3. Danny Mendick (FREE)
TOTAL: $25M

Now, you can trade Gavin Sheets for a controllable back-end starter. Or Andrew Vaughn for an excellent to elite starter, or an excellent to elite second baseman. If Cespedes/Colas forces the issue, imagine trading one of THEM for a controllable starter or second baseman, maybe even packing two of those players together to go even bigger. Would that team not be in a much better position to win? With Abreu/Eloy/whoever is left from Vaughn/Sheets/Burger rotating in DH/1B/LF to help them all stay healthy and not requiring them to play out of position? With a real full-time RF in the other corner? Now, imagine you gave Rodon the QO instead of exercising Kimbrel's option. Suddenly you have pitching depth, possibly a lot of it! And it didn't cost ANY more money than what they've done instead. Is the upgrade from Romy/Mendick to Leury/Harrison worth the alternative?

Agreed . This why most of the trade speculation around here revolves around Vaughn, Sheets and more recently Eloy. Too many out of position players , too many 1B /DH types, too right handed, not enough Starting pitching,  and too many bad choices.

I've been trying to take on the task in my head of getting better defensively getting more LH via taking on salary or trading some of those guys. Most people are attached to certain young guys be it Vaughn, Crochet, Eloy or Sheets and don't want to mess with their upsides but in essence it has to be done. Without a strong farm it's hard to be competitive in trades so some trades to fill glaring holes would be painful. So many want it all to be pain free.

Plenty here didn't want Rodon back or to give him a QO. That involves risk and gnashing of teeth. Losing Rodon and Tepera, stating the need to trade Kimbrel and moving Kopech and Crochet into different roles were the 1st steps that the bullpen became TLR/Hahn/Reinsdorf's primary concern because it could be addressed with less money. Bad choices all the way around.

So bad in fact that the whole process has , so far, yielded no results regarding starting pitching , defense and balancing the lineup which were Hahn's stated goals .

It's pretty mind boggling, but if you believe in the past as an indicator of the future from them, not totally unexpected.

[fathom]

So the Sox clearly have a big trade in the works and barely any mention of it. I watched the Robert Murray clip and got me quite intrigued.  Also I saw where Dombrowski said he had one more move coming up in next few days.

[KBX]

9 minutes ago, fathom said:

So the Sox clearly have a big trade in the works and barely any mention of it. I watched the Robert Murray clip and got me quite intrigued.  Also I saw where Dombrowski said he had one more move coming up in next few days.

Link?

[Sambuca]

19 minutes ago, fathom said:

So the Sox clearly have a big trade in the works and barely any mention of it. I watched the Robert Murray clip and got me quite intrigued.  Also I saw where Dombrowski said he had one more move coming up in next few days.

I don’t think the people have any excitement left in the tank.  

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

What was you guys think of a Kimbrel for AJ Pollock type swap with the Dodgers? 🤔

[maxjusttyped]

26 minutes ago, fathom said:

So the Sox clearly have a big trade in the works and barely any mention of it. I watched the Robert Murray clip and got me quite intrigued.  Also I saw where Dombrowski said he had one more move coming up in next few days.

Don't think this will get a lot of peoples juices going, but Kimbrel to the Phillies for a guy like Bailey Falter or Hans Crouse would excite me.

[maxjusttyped]

Just now, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

What was you guys think of a Kimbrel for AJ Pollock type swap with the Dodgers? 🤔

I'd love it, but I can't see the Dodgers dealing core guys from their big league roster.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

5 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

I'd love it, but I can't see the Dodgers dealing core guys from their big league roster.

Robert Murray says the Dodgers might be looking to shed payroll to add a closer. That would accomplish both things, while getting the Sox a right fielder, albeit Pollock has only played CF and LF. But even though Pollock isn't a RF, neither is Vaughn or Sheets, so that's already an upgrade no matter what.

[maxjusttyped]

1 minute ago, ChiliIrishHammock24 said:

Robert Murray says the Dodgers might be looking to shed payroll to add a closer. That would accomplish both things, while getting the Sox a right fielder, albeit Pollock has only played CF and LF. But even though Pollock isn't a RF, neither is Vaughn or Sheets, so that's already an upgrade no matter what.

I didn't listen to the interview. Thanks for clarifying. Pollock would be a great get.

good call.

[caulfield12]

15 minutes ago, maxjusttyped said:

Don't think this will get a lot of peoples juices going, but Kimbrel to the Phillies for a guy like Bailey Falter or Hans Crouse would excite me.

Those sound like names from a 1950's noir movie script...