Crochet having Tommy John surgery Tuesday

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Sorry. I said when they drafted him with his motion, injury history and lack of innings in college his chances of getting injured early on was really high.

Lots of talent but a very risky pick.

yup.  I didn't really like the pick (but whatever), he had a high ceiling.. What I HATED however, was the way we handled him in every way.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, A-Train to 35th said:

7th highest payroll in baseball but yet JR continues to be called cheap.  If you want cheap, look to the North side owner who fired staff during COVID while Jerry kept every fringe employee on the payroll.  Meanwhile Rickett's trades his core players instead of extending them and is willing to pay billions  and chases a soccer team.  No thanks I'll take JR.

We spent tens of millions and still somehow managed to lower our projected fWAR or at best marginally improve it from the #14 payroll at the beginning of last season…right around league average.

Ricketts was never going to be able to keep that team together.  They had three NLCS in a row and five playoff appearances.  Any Sox fan would love to have only three more playoffs out of this window if three were to the ALCS and one to WS.  That would be a huge success unmatched with any period in franchise history were they to somehow pull that off.

Signing/extending Contreras, Baez, Rizzo and especially Bryant would have led to a couple more playoff appearances but eventually a complete teardown.  Now they can try to compete without totally bottoming out for 4-5 years and see how it goes.

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Sorry. I said when they drafted him with his motion, injury history and lack of innings in college his chances of getting injured early on was really high.

Lots of talent but a very risky pick.

The cross up though is the way they acted like this pick had no risk to it. If you thought this was a risky pick, even if you thought he had the stuff to get big league hitters out right now, giving him time in the minors dramatically drops the risk because you avoid starting his arbitration clock.

Risky pick in the middle of the first round? I get that. Risky pick followed by a gamble that massively increases the potential losses if things don’t go perfect? Seems like a sucker bet.

[ptatc]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

The cross up though is the way they acted like this pick had no risk to it. If you thought this was a risky pick, even if you thought he had the stuff to get big league hitters out right now, giving him time in the minors dramatically drops the risk because you avoid starting his arbitration clock.

Risky pick in the middle of the first round? I get that. Risky pick followed by a gamble that massively increases the potential losses if things don’t go perfect? Seems like a sucker bet.

As I've always said, I don't think it really mattered if he was in the monor or majors. His innings were so limited due his history you can make a case for either way. His chance at injury was also so high maybe being with the MLB medical staff come be an advantage. 

Hopefully his injury isn't serious and is something readily remedied.

[Jake]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The cross up though is the way they acted like this pick had no risk to it. If you thought this was a risky pick, even if you thought he had the stuff to get big league hitters out right now, giving him time in the minors dramatically drops the risk because you avoid starting his arbitration clock.

Risky pick in the middle of the first round? I get that. Risky pick followed by a gamble that massively increases the potential losses if things don’t go perfect? Seems like a sucker bet.

I suppose the other way of looking at this is if you think he can get MLB hitters out right away, you just want to get as much value out of him before the inevitable injury that may leave him unable to regain his pre-injury performance.

[Balta1701]

Just now, ptatc said:

As I've always said, I don't think it really mattered if he was in the monor or majors. His innings were so limited due his history you can make a case for either way. His chance at injury was also so high maybe being with the MLB medical staff come be an advantage. 

Hopefully his injury isn't serious and is something readily remedied.

It absolutely does for service time. Service time does not accrue in the minors. There was plenty of work this kid could do there last year, and if he got hurt while building up his arm, the team still has 6 years of big league control and time to fully rehab him. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, Jake said:

I suppose the other way of looking at this is if you think he can get MLB hitters out right away, you just want to get as much value out of him before the inevitable injury that may leave him unable to regain his pre-injury performance.

Are you satisfied with the value gotten out of this first round pick? 6th guy out of the bullpen/mop up duty for one year?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you satisfied with the value gotten out of this first round pick? 6th guy out of the bullpen/mop up duty for one year?

Is his career over or something?

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

It absolutely does for service time. Service time does not accrue in the minors. There was plenty of work this kid could do there last year, and if he got hurt while building up his arm, the team still has 6 years of big league control and time to fully rehab him. 

Service time is one the that does matter. But is that really what you want to base their development on?

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Is his career over or something?

Is he ever going to be a starting pitcher?

[Balta1701]

Just now, ptatc said:

Service time is one the that does matter. But is that really what you want to base their development on?

As long as a team has a hard budget limit…yes?

[A-Train to 35th]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We spent tens of millions and still somehow managed to lower our projected fWAR or at best marginally improve it from the #14 payroll at the beginning of last season…right around league average.

Ricketts was never going to be able to keep that team together.  They had three NLCS in a row and five playoff appearances.  Any Sox fan would love to have only three more playoffs out of this window if three were to the ALCS and one to WS.  That would be a huge success unmatched with any period in franchise history were they to somehow pull that off.

Signing/extending Contreras, Baez, Rizzo and especially Bryant would have led to a couple more playoff appearances but eventually a complete teardown.  Now they can try to compete without totally bottoming out for 4-5 years and see how it goes.

Robert, Eloy, Yaz, and Engel missed significant portions of the season last year , which might have something to do with your fWar (whatever that is) drop.

How can you justify Ricketts attempting to spend billions on a soccer team but couldn't sign any of their core players ( Baez & Bryant specifically.  What about letting staff go during COVID, can you at least throw JR a bone for not firing anyone during a pandemic ?

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, A-Train to 35th said:

Robert, Eloy, Yaz, and Engel missed significant portions of the season last year , which might have something to do with your fWar (whatever that is) drop.

How can you justify Ricketts attempting to spend billions on a soccer team but couldn't sign any of their core players ( Baez & Bryant specifically.  What about letting staff go during COVID, can you at least throw JR a bone for not firing anyone during a pandemic ?

So we should also criticize JR for dividing his attention with the Bulls?

I mean...I guess soccer or futbol is a foreign sport, even if it's the #1 sport worldwide and has massive growth potential in Asia and the Middle East.

That's just being a good businessperson and diversifying your revenue streams and target audiences.  Surely it will be connected back to world financial markets...finding so called synergies.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Is he ever going to be a starting pitcher?

Does he need to be?  He put 1.3 fWAR last year in in 54 mostly medium / low leverage innings.  If his velocity returns to form and he’s used in high leverage situations he’s probably a 2 win guy.  That’s plenty valuable for the 11th overall pick even if I’d rather have tried developing him a starter.

[A-Train to 35th]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

So we should also criticize JR for dividing his attention with the Bulls?

I mean...I guess soccer or futbol is a foreign sport, even if it's the #1 sport worldwide and has massive growth potential in Asia and the Middle East.

That's just being a good businessperson and diversifying your revenue streams and target audiences.  Surely it will be connected back to world financial markets...finding so called synergies.

If you admire Ricketts so much maybe you should switch teams and root for the Cubs and Chelsea.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Does he need to be?  He put 1.3 fWAR last year in in 54 mostly medium / low leverage innings.  If his velocity returns to form and he’s used in high leverage situations he’s probably a 2 win guy.  That’s plenty valuable for the 11th overall pick even if I’d rather have tried developing him a starter.

As the number 11 pick.. I'd say yes, he needed to at least be tried at a starter.  I want a higher ceiling than a reliever with that high a pick. He will never get the opportunity (as I have said since we brought him to the bullpen.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Squirmin' for Yermin

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

As the number 11 pick.. I'd say yes, he needed to at least be tried at a starter.  I want a higher ceiling than a reliever with that high a pick. He will never get the opportunity (as I have said since we brought him to the bullpen.

I’m defending the strategy, just pointing out that Crochet can still be plenty valuable and provide a solid return on an 11th overall selection.

[Quin]

I know Herm wasn't like, a magical guardian that prevented all injuries, but I miss Herm.

[ptatc]

9 minutes ago, Quin said:

I know Herm wasn't like, a magical guardian that prevented all injuries, but I miss Herm.

Herm is a great guy. You can't help bit respect the guy.

However he wouldn't have much effect on pitching injuries today.

With the new ways of throwing and velocity, strikeout centric philosophy, injury risk has skyrocketed.

"Stirkeouts are fascist, throw ground balls."

Edited April 1, 2022 by ptatc

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Does he need to be?  He put 1.3 fWAR last year in in 54 mostly medium / low leverage innings.  If his velocity returns to form and he’s used in high leverage situations he’s probably a 2 win guy.  That’s plenty valuable for the 11th overall pick even if I’d rather have tried developing him a starter.

A quick check finds that the average first round pick is worth 7 WAR give or take. There were 10 relievers in all of baseball who put up 2 WAR last year. So, you need him to come back from TJS and immediately have him become a top 10 reliever in baseball and stay there with no issues for 3 years to get that kind of value from him.

There is one reliever in all of baseball who has been a top 10 WAR reliever each of the last 3 years, one other who would probably have gotten there if 2020 had been normal (Hader).

You are literally saying “he will come back and immediately be a top 3 reliever in all of baseball.”

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

A quick check finds that the average first round pick is worth 7 WAR give or take. There were 10 relievers in all of baseball who put up 2 WAR last year. So, you need him to come back from TJS and immediately have him become a top 10 reliever in baseball and stay there with no issues for 3 years to get that kind of value from him.

There is one reliever in all of baseball who has been a top 10 WAR reliever each of the last 3 years, one other who would probably have gotten there if 2020 had been normal (Hader).

You are literally saying “he will come back and immediately be a top 3 reliever in all of baseball.”

And what’s the average value provided by the 11th overall selection or someone in that range?  Using a general 1st round is pretty disingenuous when a large portion of the total value is probably provided by the first couple picks.

[EloyJenkins]

honestly his impact THIS season was going to be just mediocre....but this is devastating for extending the window with TJ coming surely and service time lost. this on top of Kelly is really bad and Manea may be a panic move now that further hurts anything beyond 2024. 

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And what’s the average value provided by the 11th overall selection or someone in that range?  Using a general 1st round is pretty disingenuous when a large portion of the total value is probably provided by the first couple picks.

7. Error bars are high enough that it might be 8-9, but 7 is a good number for the first round. As I said last time. Have a paper. I assume with this data you’ll say that clearly 7 was being generous and you admit that even a 2 WAR reliever for 3 years would be average performance at best.

Quote

Our first-round pick hypothesis was partially confirmed, as the first 5 picks offered the highest WAR, yet it did not significantly offer greater WAR from picks 6–10, or picks 11–15, and therefore was only greater than picks 16–30.

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa200586

 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

A quick check finds that the average first round pick is worth 7 WAR give or take. There were 10 relievers in all of baseball who put up 2 WAR last year. So, you need him to come back from TJS and immediately have him become a top 10 reliever in baseball and stay there with no issues for 3 years to get that kind of value from him.

There is one reliever in all of baseball who has been a top 10 WAR reliever each of the last 3 years, one other who would probably have gotten there if 2020 had been normal (Hader).

You are literally saying “he will come back and immediately be a top 3 reliever in all of baseball.”

He’s also provided 1.5 fWAR so far in his career.  Do I think it’s a reasonable probability he provides a total of 5.5 wins or 1.4 per season over his four last years?  Yes I do and I’d probably be willing put some money on that happening.

[CentralChamps21]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Sorry. I said when they drafted him with his motion, injury history and lack of innings in college his chances of getting injured early on was really high.

Lots of talent but a very risky pick.

Do the Sox not have anybody in the org. telling them the same thing? Or were they told that and just decided to take the risk?