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Kimbrel traded for AJ Pollock


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1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Everyone is happy that Kimbrel is gone. And, sure, Pollock is "as good as it could get" for Kimbrel.

But I think you'll agree that it could have been far better than this, and Pollock comes with significant downside risks. Father Time can come get him, or injuries, or as I'd mentioned, BABIP regression.

And I'll agree that it was worth the gamble. But there really weren't a lot of options, were there?

Pollock's only averaged 107 games/season over the past 5 seasons, excepting the shortened 2020 season. Eloy and Robert also have significant injury histories.

But for the pending DFA of Grandpa Josh at 2B, I would expect Leury to start a few games in the OF.

You take away 2019, and Pollock has been right around 120 games played since 2017. Unless you think there's some huge difference between 117, 113, and 112 and 120. I'd say mine was rounding, and yours is misleading. Pollock also played 55 of 60 games in the shortened season. The past two seasons he's played 77.4% of his teams games, which times 162 = 125 games. I rounded down to 120. 

Also, I'm not sure what was "much better" on the RF FA market. I'd like to have Schwarber and maybe Castellanos bat, but arguing that either guy is a RF'er is like arguing Vaughn was one.

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Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

According to Spotrac, its a player option. So, if Pollock does reasonably well, why wouldn't he opt out after 2022?

He would. That is just an extra $5 million if he suffers a career ending injury.

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1 minute ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

According to Spotrac, its a player option. So, if Pollock does reasonably well, why wouldn't he opt out after 2022?

That seems like one heck of a good problem to have. Pollock is so good at his grandpa age as you are implying that he opts out of a 10 million dollar deal and goes onto the market to get even more; knowing that the market isn't kind to grandpas. 

I'd take that 10 out of 10 times. Sox have some money freeing up next year too so they could acquire 3-4 quality utility outfielders with that freed up money.

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With Pollock on board, the Sox could include Sheets in a deal for Manaea. It’s probably more than what he’s worth. But with so many teams wanting SP, that should be a top offer. 
 

 

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4 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

At this point I just wanted him gone and didn't expect much of a return.   The OF options after Conforto all had their warts IMO, so a solid OF that hits RH pitching is a win for me.

Let's also not act like Conforto is without his warts

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4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

According to Spotrac, its a player option. So, if Pollock does reasonably well, why wouldn't he opt out after 2022?

Yep - I corrected my post - I had misread that originally. Either way - if he produces like he did last year - he is worth $15M (not knowing exactly how the payroll went back and forth, etc).  

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You take away 2019, and Pollock has been right around 120 games played since 2017. Unless you think there's some huge difference between 117, 113, and 112 and 120. I'd say mine was rounding, and yours is misleading. Pollock also played 55 of 60 games in the shortened season. The past two seasons he's played 77.4% of his teams games, which times 162 = 125 games. I rounded down to 120. 

 Also, I'm not sure what was "much better" on the RF FA market. I'd like to have Schwarber and maybe Castellanos bat, but arguing that either guy is a RF'er is like arguing Vaughn was one.

Disagreed. "Taking away" his injury-scarred 2019, when he was younger than he is now is moving the goalposts. 

I included the entirety of the past 5 seasons, except for the shortened 2020 season.

 

On the RF market, I would take 27 year old Seiya Suzuki at an AAV of $17MM over 5, than Pollock at his age and injury history. Im willing to be wrong here, but Father Time is invincible. Or Bryant.

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Just now, Chisoxfn said:

Yep - I corrected my post - I had misread that originally. Either way - if he produces like he did last year - he is worth $15M (not knowing exactly how the payroll went back and forth, etc).  

I'd rather have 27 year old Suzuki at an AAV of $17MM than Pollock at $15MM.

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1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

That seems like one heck of a good problem to have. Pollock is so good at his grandpa age as you are implying that he opts out of a 10 million dollar deal and goes onto the market to get even more; knowing that the market isn't kind to grandpas. 

I'd take that 10 out of 10 times. Sox have some money freeing up next year too so they could acquire 3-4 quality utility outfielders with that freed up money.

The buyout is $5 million if he opts out. So he gets to choose, a $5 million check or a $10 million salary next year. If he’s good, he just takes the $5 million. If he’s bad or seriously hurt, he takes the $10 million.

Its $15 million this season and a player option for $5 million if you want to think of it that way, just a payment due in November.

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2 minutes ago, beck72 said:

With Pollock on board, the Sox could include Sheets in a deal for Manaea. It’s probably more than what he’s worth. But with so many teams wanting SP, that should be a top offer. 
 

 

I hate to break it to you but if Sheets is the top offer, they don't have many offers.

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1 minute ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

everyone would... but who is to say we'd have Suzuki if we never picked up Kimbrel.

Its a different question though - one ties up multiple years and the other doesn't.  There is a value on flexibility (even though I too was a big proponent of Suzuki).  

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Just now, Two-Gun Pete said:

Disagreed. "Taking away" his injury-scarred 2019, when he was younger than he is now is moving the goalposts. 

I included the entirety of the past 5 seasons, except for the shortened 2020 season.

 

On the RF market, I would take 27 year old Seiya Suzuki at an AAV of $17MM over 5, than Pollock at his age and injury history. Im willing to be wrong here, but Father Time is invincible. Or Bryant.

Sometimes the median is a better story teller than the mean. 

If someone plays 70%+ of his teams games in 4 seasons and 50% in one season, it's more likely he hits the 70% number than the 50% number. 

Who has any idea what Seiya Suzuki is going to do? How much have you watched him play? Maybe he turns out amazing, but I'm not going to act like I know much about him or that I've seen him play a lot and know how he projects. The last Japanese outfielder with a ton of hype that the Cubs signed to a long term deal went on to be bad, and if we're being honest... the history of Japanese position players in the US isn't all that great. 

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6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You take away 2019, and Pollock has been right around 120 games played since 2017. Unless you think there's some huge difference between 117, 113, and 112 and 120. I'd say mine was rounding, and yours is misleading. Pollock also played 55 of 60 games in the shortened season. The past two seasons he's played 77.4% of his teams games, which times 162 = 125 games. I rounded down to 120. 

Also, I'm not sure what was "much better" on the RF FA market. I'd like to have Schwarber and maybe Castellanos bat, but arguing that either guy is a RF'er is like arguing Vaughn was one.

If you trust in your intl. scouting, no Kimbrel option and Suzuki was the answer.

Of course, if they are right on either Colas or Cespedes, it's absolutely perfect timing with Pollock...and they arguably trust Cubans over Pacific Rim talent.

But get it wrong and you could be starting all over again in a barren FA market next offseason.

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59 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

So within 4 days after Tony LaRussa said people who think the Sox need to go outside the organization for an OF are not White Sox fans, the Sox made 2 trades for OFs. You can't make this shit up.

Tony LaRussa "You can't be a Sox fan and want another RF!"

Rick Hahn "Hold my beer.  On second thought..."

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If you trust in your intl. scouting, no Kimbrel option and Suzuki was the answer.

Of course, if they are right on either Colas or Cespedes, it's absolutely perfect timing with Pollock...and they arguably trust Cubans over Pacific Rim talent.

But get it wrong and you could be starting all over again in a barren FA market next offseason.

Maybe they do trust their international scouting and their international scouting said that Suzuki isn't worth that investment?

Again, the history of Japanese position players in the US is not exactly glowing. There have been far my hyped busts than there have been raging success stories like Ichiro.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

I hate to break it to you but if Sheets is the top offer, they don't have many offers.

Sheets would be a very good offer for Manaea. Like Dunning was for Lynn. 

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2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If you trust in your intl. scouting, no Kimbrel option and Suzuki was the answer.

Of course, if they are right on either Colas or Cespedes, it's absolutely perfect timing with Pollock...and they arguably trust Cubans over Pacific Rim talent.

But get it wrong and you could be starting all over again in a barren FA market next offseason.

We have no idea what Sox scouts feel about Suzuki

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