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GAMETHREAD 4/13/22: Sox vs Mariners (Keuchel vs Ray) 6:10 pm CDT


TheTruth05
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19 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Sox would love for Keuchel to pitch one inning  or even better yet, just warm up and then the game get washed.  Nightmare scenario if Dallas is serviceable (but not great) and healthy this season and approaching 160 IP during the pennant run.  He does not strike me as the type to take his innings getting limited quietly. 

This seems like something we shouldn't worry about until August.  Chances are remote Keuchel gets to 160 innings.  Chances are much better he's either not in the rotation or not on the roster come august 1.  Even if he is on pace to get to 160 come trade deadline season, just acquire a pitcher and bump him from the rotation.  Replacing a pitcher who isn't very good isn't grounds for a grievance. 

With as cheap as the Sox can be, they aren't paying Keuchel $20M next year to be a gas can. 

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41 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Sox would love for Keuchel to pitch one inning  or even better yet, just warm up and then the game get washed.  Nightmare scenario if Dallas is serviceable (but not great) and healthy this season and approaching 160 IP during the pennant run.  He does not strike me as the type to take his innings getting limited quietly. 

They can't afford to skip anyone now. There are 2 starters short.

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2 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Other than playing 2 tomorrow, only other realistic option I see is 8/29. Both teams are off and Seattle is in Detroit the next day so not bad travel-wise.

4/25 is also possible.  SOX home the next day, Seattle on their way to TB.  

Both are also off on Memorial Day, SOX going to Toronto and the M's heading to Baltimore.  

 

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2 minutes ago, soxfan18 said:

4/25 is also possible.  SOX home the next day, Seattle on their way to TB.  

Both are also off on Memorial Day, SOX going to Toronto and the M's heading to Baltimore.  

 

I can see Memorial Day as an option, but there's no point in avoiding a DH just to schedule another home game in April.

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56 minutes ago, Kalapse said:

Chasing a ton. It's basically his only weakness.

Chasing a ton is a weakness only when you strike out often and make little or poor contact. Yeah maybe he could get some more walks, but he is hitting the ball great and he is pretty damn good at chasing. The fact is he has only one strikeout in four games with 16 AB's, producing a .375-BA/.412-OBP/.625-SLG/.1037-OPS! Several of his hard hit balls are just bad luck as he has crushed the ball often and unfortunately right at someone. 

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47 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Nice amateur schedule makers out in force with the meteorologists.

All the people who felt there would be no baseball this season stopped talking so the void was filled 

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1 hour ago, GREEDY said:

Sox would love for Keuchel to pitch one inning  or even better yet, just warm up and then the game get washed.  Nightmare scenario if Dallas is serviceable (but not great) and healthy this season and approaching 160 IP during the pennant run.  He does not strike me as the type to take his innings getting limited quietly. 

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario.  As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario?  Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR.  He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago.  What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4.    Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35.  Do you shut him down?   I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4.  I'm rooting for the bounce back.      

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5 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario.  As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario?  Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR.  He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago.  What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4.    Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35.  Do you shut him down?   I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4.  I'm rooting for the bounce back.      

Last year he really had zero command for half his starts. Hard to be a soft tosser that is also throwing it down the middle on the regular. We'll see if he can rediscover his release point and I do think it's possible he "bounces back" at least in part because it would hard to be worse. He had a WHIP of almost 1.6 FFS and walked over 3.5 guys per 9.

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10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario.  As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario?  Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR.  He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago.  What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4.    Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35.  Do you shut him down?   I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4.  I'm rooting for the bounce back.      

I would feel better about Dallas if his numbers didn't do a complete 180 after the sticky stuff crack down.  He hasn't shown his old control since that point.  He isn't a guy who can pitch over control.  Control is a 100% requirement with his kind of stuff.

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12 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario.  As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario?  Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR.  He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago.  What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4.    Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35.  Do you shut him down?   I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4.  I'm rooting for the bounce back.      

I think best case scenario is basically what you just outlined with a (needed) 30-45 day trip to IL in there.  Sox can't afford to roll the dice on Keuchel in 2023.  That $20M needs to be more effectively allocated.  

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1 hour ago, The Kids Can Play said:

Chasing a ton is a weakness only when you strike out often and make little or poor contact. Yeah maybe he could get some more walks, but he is hitting the ball great and he is pretty damn good at chasing. The fact is he has only one strikeout in four games with 16 AB's, producing a .375-BA/.412-OBP/.625-SLG/.1037-OPS! Several of his hard hit balls are just bad luck as he has crushed the ball often and unfortunately right at someone. 

It's ironically funny - I remember the times folks would get frustrated Frank Thomas didn't chase enough and took balls barely off the plate that we thought he could murder.

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33 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Very Soxtalk-ish of you to present the nightmare scenario.  As a natural contrarian...what about the other scenario?  Keuchel has had years of 6.5WAR, 4.5, 3.9 and as recently as 2020 a pro rated 5.5 WAR.  He was bad last year...and in the spring, but he is a 5 time gold glover including last year, a CY young winner and finished 5th in CYA two years ago.  What if last year was just "one of those years"...he finds his command again (was never a power pitcher so aging shouldn't effect him) and through the next 20 starts averaged 7 innings a game with a 3.5 ERA and is 9-4.    Sort of like Buehrle age 34-35.  Do you shut him down?   I think everyone wants to bury Keuchel and forget that even with last years horrible year...he's got 10 years and 1500 major league innings with a FIP under 4.  I'm rooting for the bounce back.      

I am a Keuchel bull but there are very few scenarios where the club will be excited to be on the hook for 20 million next year.  I don't want to bury him.  But I don't want to have an awkward storyline down the stretch if he's been good but not great (which I think is possible).  In that scenario you won't want to pay him 20 million next year, but you also won't want the BS that will come with manipulating his innings.  

I saw the weather report, knew it was Keuchel's day and realized it wouldn't be a bad thing for him to miss his start.  That isn't "Soxtalk-ish".

 

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26 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would feel better about Dallas if his numbers didn't do a complete 180 after the sticky stuff crack down.  He hasn't shown his old control since that point.  He isn't a guy who can pitch over control.  Control is a 100% requirement with his kind of stuff.

Honestly I don't THINK Dallas is going to come back...and yes the day after the Spider Tack ban took place his ERA was 3.78 and the rest of the season it was 7.  He also came from Houston which has a history of bending the rules for results.  Still Katz and Dallas are smart and must be working on a plan to get that control back.   I just thought the thread was funny with the unstoppable Robbie Ray against the pathetic Dallas Keuchel yet the two have pitched in the majors for the last 9 years and Dallas has been better than Robbie 8 of those years.     

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