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Why are the sox so unlucky with veteran additions?


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I get it is not all luck as part of the issue is that jerry won't pay up for the top guys, but the kind of "success" they had in the last couple years is just unreal. 

Sure a lot of them are older and some regression was expected but certainly not that much. 

 

Pollock is a good example, he has been injury prone but generally a solid player when healthy. Some regression was expected but he still was projected for a 110-115 wrc+, now he is at 78.

Encarnacion had a 130 wrc+ in 2019 and 70 in 2020. 

Mazara was a mid 90s wrc+ guy and went to worst hitter in the league (66 wrc+). Cesar hernandez of course wasn't as good as the first half of last season indicated but you could have expected like a mid 90s wrc+. 

Kimbrel also overperformed in the first half last year but no way he is that bad

 

That happened so many times and I'm not sure why it happened. 

 

The team gets criticized for not having enough depth and being a stars and scrubs team but really many of those acquisitions shouldn't habe been that bad, they just needed to be 1 WAR guys instead of minus 1 WAR guys and couldn't climb that low bar. That is really strange. 

Yeah, the front office did buy high on veterans and in some cases it probably was a dead cat bounce but that it always went all the way down is just strange. 

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I don't think they are unlucky. They think they are brilliant at playing the FA market, and have a set price to pay for player performance. Those prices are under market value for the best available players, and overmarket value for past their prime players. Sox budget 18 million for top position players, don't get them, then see productive, mid-30s DHs and say "holy crap we can get them for $14 million? That's a way better deal!"

"$10 million for Escobar? We could get 34 year old josh harrison, who just had a pitiful second half, for half that! And he'd be 80% of Escobar!

You can't really do negative numbers, but lo and behold escobar will be multiples more valuable than Harrison, who is another player unlikely to see another contract.

"Sheesh, why pay for that guy when we can get 80% of him in Jon Jay?"

Jon Jay's career ends.

Back in the 2000s they were actually very good at this. They found veterans with years more life. But whether it be velo, or steroids, or whatever, the aging curve has either been stiffer or teams are smarter who they prevent going to FA. The sox still shop like it's the 2000s.

They are also just very bad at mlb scouting. With most teams with a Reese McGuire/Seby Zevala being ahead of Carlos Perez to start the year you'd say "well he's not as good/isn't ready". With the sox I'm assuming he's an all star.

They probably could outsource all of their scouting to a baseball america subscription and be better off / have way more money for other fun stuff.

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3 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We don't usually sign good veterans. We sign already washed up veterans.

 

This!  Grandal might be the exception...but we sign guys we "hope" will bounce back or finally live up to potential!  

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9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't think they are unlucky. They think they are brilliant at playing the FA market, and have a set price to pay for player performance. Those prices are under market value for the best available players, and overmarket value for past their prime players. Sox budget 18 million for top position players, don't get them, then see productive, mid-30s DHs and say "holy crap we can get them for $14 million? That's a way better deal!"

"$10 million for Escobar? We could get 34 year old josh harrison, who just had a pitiful second half, for half that! And he'd be 80% of Escobar!

You can't really do negative numbers, but lo and behold escobar will be multiples more valuable than Harrison, who is another player unlikely to see another contract.

"Sheesh, why pay for that guy when we can get 80% of him in Jon Jay?"

Jon Jay's career ends.

Back in the 2000s they were actually very good at this. They found veterans with years more life. But whether it be velo, or steroids, or whatever, the aging curve has either been stiffer or teams are smarter who they prevent going to FA. The sox still shop like it's the 2000s.

They are also just very bad at mlb scouting. With most teams with a Reese McGuire/Seby Zevala being ahead of Carlos Perez to start the year you'd say "well he's not as good/isn't ready". With the sox I'm assuming he's an all star.

They probably could outsource all of their scouting to a baseball america subscription and be better off / have way more money for other fun stuff.

Since I mostly follow the White Sox I get very frustrated with them when someone leaves the organization and has success elsewhere.  For example, take Luis Gonzalez.  They couldn't figure that a solution to their OF and lefthanded issue was maybe already in the organization?  Is that type of thing just common in MLB with the 40 man roster crunch, etc or are the White Sox just particularly bad when it comes to scouting in general?

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Up until Hahn they had a solid record taking guys off the scrap heap and making something out of them.

Marte, Thornton, Jenks, deAza, Floyd, Quintana, Sergio Santos, Dye, Loiaza, Contreras, AJ, Iguchi, Pods, Crain, Thome, the list under KW goes on and on.

Something changed in 2011 with the Dunn group and they've never gotten back that mojo again.  Or you could even push it back to the flameouts of Beckham and Viciedo if you prefer.

They had all that time from the second half of 2016 through 2019/20 and almost nothing to show for it.  Bad draft choices other than TA7, Sale and Rodon, who underperformed until last year. Targeting relievers and collegiate/advanced hitters. Aaron Bummer was one of the best system products, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

But they had all that playing time to give away and perhaps the best two were Narvaez and Avisail Garcia.

Then they obviously missed or were simply outworked or out hustled on a bunch of evaluations like Semien, Escobar, Tatis Jr., Bassitt, Montas, Devenski, etc.

Yes a lot of names...that all boil down to core shrinking by the day, but also getting older and pricier simultaneously.

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19 minutes ago, BrittBurnsFan said:

 

This!  Grandal might be the exception...but we sign guys we "hope" will bounce back or finally live up to potential!  

On a loooong list of frustrating things about the organization, this is near the top for me. Obviously all organizations hope for things like this, but the amount of weight it seems to carry in this FO is bananas. It almost feels like they imagine up a best case scenario where everything works out perfectly and then completely focus all energy on that.

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45 minutes ago, wegner said:

Since I mostly follow the White Sox I get very frustrated with them when someone leaves the organization and has success elsewhere.  For example, take Luis Gonzalez.  They couldn't figure that a solution to their OF and lefthanded issue was maybe already in the organization?  Is that type of thing just common in MLB with the 40 man roster crunch, etc or are the White Sox just particularly bad when it comes to scouting in general?

And whether or not Luis Gonzalez fades it's not luck from the giants. They signed Zaidi from the Dodgers who was the organizer of their incredible player development system. His org seems completely in sync on what players will work well with their staff to make them better than they were before they signed. 

 

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1 hour ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

We don't usually sign good veterans. We sign already washed up veterans.

Yeah but there is a difference between slightly washed up and "worst hitter in mlb", I think most of the guys I mentioned were projected for regression but not all the way rock bottom. 

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Their pro scouting is atrocious, and has been for a decade.  Hahn is especially bad in this department.  They also won't pay up in dollars or years for premium talent, and those attracted to what the Sox do offer tend to be on the wash up side and or the severely underperforming.  FA that other teams pass over.

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4 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Grandal is absoliutely an exception.  Plus he gave us 2 good years.  

If all you get is 1 1/2 seasons out of 4 it's not exactly a massive success.

In fact, he will end up blocking a solution to the problem...which will just perpetuate the cycle of personnel issues that kicked off with the Kimbrel trade and just spun out of control.

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14 minutes ago, bmags said:

And whether or not Luis Gonzalez fades it's not luck from the giants. They signed Zaidi from the Dodgers who was the organizer of their incredible player development system. His org seems completely in sync on what players will work well with their staff to make them better than they were before they signed. 

 

They have very good coaching and for example pitching machines that simulate opposing pitcher spin but they also put guys in good spots and platoon everybody not just for handedness but also have guys who are high or low ball or breaking ball hitters so they have every night at least 5 or 6 guys in the lineup who can handle the guy on the mound well. 

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11 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Grandal is absoliutely an exception.  Plus he gave us 2 good years.  

Would call 2021 a great year.

2020 is an asterisk, same as Keuchel’s “Cy Young caliber” 2020 based on 11 starts.

Games Caught

  • 32 (2020 - Age 31) 
  • 80 (2021 - Age 32)
  • 32 (2022 - Age 33)

DH/1B

  • 13 (2020)
  • 17 (2021)
  • 19 (2022)

His bat warranted DH/1B starts the first two years. This season, it’s based on desperation (hoping he turns around + few/no other options between injuries and lack of quality depth).

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

If all you get is 1 1/2 seasons out of 4 it's not exactly a massive success.

In fact, he will end up blocking a solution to the problem...which will just perpetuate the cycle of personnel issues that kicked off with the Kimbrel trade and just spun out of control.

If you want to use the $8.5M per 1 fWAR calculation I know you love to use, Yasmani was worth $45M in years 1 and 2 of his deal, and was paid $36.5M.  Obviously year 3 and year 4 aren't looking so great at the moment, but Yas was a needed signing at the time and has earned his $ to this point.  It is unfortunately looking like the last 2 years are going to be rough unless he finds whatever it is he found after his return from the IL last summer.  

I am also not sure Perez can really be deemed a "solution to the problem".  I'd be more than happy to give him a shot at this point - you can't just keep running Yaz out there right now.  But Perez has really cooled off after a fast start.  The last few weeks he hasn't hit much at all.  

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22 minutes ago, Tnetennba said:

Their pro scouting is atrocious, 

I'm going to leave the door slightly open. We're assuming the front office follows the scout's recommendations. 

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11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If you want to use the $8.5M per 1 fWAR calculation I know you love to use, Yasmani was worth $45M in years 1 and 2 of his deal, and was paid $36.5M.  Obviously year 3 and year 4 aren't looking so great at the moment, but Yas was a needed signing at the time and has earned his $ to this point.  It is unfortunately looking like the last 2 years are going to be rough unless he finds whatever it is he found after his return from the IL last summer.  

I am also not sure Perez can really be deemed a "solution to the problem".  I'd be more than happy to give him a shot at this point - you can't just keep running Yaz out there right now.  But Perez has really cooled off after a fast start.  The last few weeks he hasn't hit much at all.  

Fair enough.  You certainly plan for that last year to go bad, but none of the the Central teams can easily absorb three full years for two of the most highly paid guys in Keuchel and Yasmani.  Certainly not without one of Robert Moncada or Jimenez playing like a superstar.  And with Vaughn badly out of position.

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24 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Fair enough.  You certainly plan for that last year to go bad, but none of the the Central teams can easily absorb three full years for two of the most highly paid guys in Keuchel and Yasmani.  Certainly not without one of Robert Moncada or Jimenez playing like a superstar.  And with Vaughn badly out of position.

AV has been fine in the OF as a whole.  The first couple weeks in 22 were really bad, but he's been fine out there lately.  

Robert.....has been disappointing since his latest bout with Covid.  That batting stance is so fucked.  Hope they rework it cause he's pretty much an opposite field soft singles hitter right now which is brutal.  

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1 minute ago, GREEDY said:

They rarely want to give the extra year.  Any player with an up arrow next to their name gets a year or two more than anyone would be comfortable with. 

That was the whole argument against Machado.  And one that didn’t age particularly well.

And then again with Giolito, which might be the right move but not if a trade can’t be successfully executed to replace him.

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I seriously have come to the conclusion that the Chicago White Sox are just a bad organization. It's really not one thing but a combination of ineptitude in so many directions and their free agent additions are just one part of the big picture. Hahn did a nice job getting quality talent for a handful of trade chips a few years ago, and some signings out of Cuba have been a bright spot, but overall I do not think this organization provides the support their players need to have any sustained level of success or overcome any hint of adversity. 

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8 hours ago, wegner said:

Since I mostly follow the White Sox I get very frustrated with them when someone leaves the organization and has success elsewhere.  For example, take Luis Gonzalez.  They couldn't figure that a solution to their OF and lefthanded issue was maybe already in the organization?  Is that type of thing just common in MLB with the 40 man roster crunch, etc or are the White Sox just particularly bad when it comes to scouting in general?

I am not ready to proclaim Luis the answer to anything,  yet.  Lot's of guys have big starts and get figured out.

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46 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I am not ready to proclaim Luis the answer to anything,  yet.  Lot's of guys have big starts and get figured out.

We could've used that big start for the minimum instead of what else we've been running out there.

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