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What the hell is wrong with Giolito?


ron883
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Well, his similarity scores are:

  • Age 24 & 26 Jose Berrios ($15.7 - $24.7M over the next six years).
  • Age 25 Trevor Bauer ($35M AAV)

Doesn’t look like “5th starter / DFA material”.

Recall hearing dump Abreu and Cease a few years ago, Grandal and Keuchel are in the “elite / Cy Young” category. Can’t tell a player’s future by a short stretch. Hopeful he can recover from the issues he’s had this season and he’s only 27.

I’m sure nobody is more disappointed than Lucas, but he will be paid by and large on his health and performance next year. Hope and expect he does well for himself and the team. 

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11 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Well, his similarity scores are:

  • Age 24 & 26 Jose Berrios ($15.7 - $24.7M over the next six years).
  • Age 25 Trevor Bauer ($35M AAV)

Doesn’t look like “5th starter / DFA material”.

Recall hearing dump Abreu and Cease a few years ago, Grandal and Keuchel are in the “elite / Cy Young” category. Can’t tell a player’s future by a short stretch. Hopeful he can recover from the issues he’s had this season and he’s only 27.

 I’m sure nobody is more disappointed than Lucas, but he will be paid by and large on his health and performance next year. Hope and expect he does well for himself and the team. 

No, you can't tell a player's future by a short stretch, but if you see a player's performance dip at the same time as his velocity dips... that is more troubling and indicates to me that there's something more than just "noise" happening.

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On 6/22/2022 at 4:29 PM, caulfield12 said:

Jays kill sliders/cutters, taking away a go to option this year, especially against lefties…and the once pretty decent curveball long dead and buried with the over the top mechanics junked.

Now he throws from his ear like an NFL QB.

Can’t just go FB/CH when you’re losing your speed differential on those two with FB falling to 91-92 range…well off previous mid 90’s.

No weather excuses for the diminished stuff, either. 

He has had a short arm action for a while now. So it's laughable for this comment and the others talking about changing the arm slot.  This was the same thing he did when he had his resurgent year.  So besides the fact that it hurts your mechanical sensibilities, it has nothing to do with his struggles this year.  If he massively bulked up and doesn't pay attention to his mobility and flexibility, then yes, that can cause all sorts of issues with his ability to drive through and get everything behind the ball.  Injury is another possibility.  The sticky stuff could affect his spin rate.  Another thing is not staying behind the ball and driving through it.  Cutting it or having a crazy arm side run can also decrease spin rate.  That would be easy to see and would be something identified pretty quickly.  They have every technological toy in the tool shed to analyze this and to help fix it.  If it's an injury or a change in flexibility, then no tool can help that.   

 

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14 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Well, his similarity scores are:

  • Age 24 & 26 Jose Berrios ($15.7 - $24.7M over the next six years).
  • Age 25 Trevor Bauer ($35M AAV)

Doesn’t look like “5th starter / DFA material”.

Recall hearing dump Abreu and Cease a few years ago, Grandal and Keuchel are in the “elite / Cy Young” category. Can’t tell a player’s future by a short stretch. Hopeful he can recover from the issues he’s had this season and he’s only 27.

I’m sure nobody is more disappointed than Lucas, but he will be paid by and large on his health and performance next year. Hope and expect he does well for himself and the team. 

Okay so some organization like the Texas Rangers will give him 9 figures because they think he is coming off his 2019 season.  Got it.

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34 minutes ago, ThatBallHitDeep_WAYBack said:

Okay so some organization like the Texas Rangers will give him 9 figures because they think he is coming off his 2019 season.  Got it.

Well I will say this, it only takes one team to think they can turn someone around and be willing to take a financial chance.

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3 hours ago, southsideirish71 said:

He has had a short arm action for a while now. So it's laughable for this comment and the others talking about changing the arm slot.  This was the same thing he did when he had his resurgent year.  So besides the fact that it hurts your mechanical sensibilities, it has nothing to do with his struggles this year.  If he massively bulked up and doesn't pay attention to his mobility and flexibility, then yes, that can cause all sorts of issues with his ability to drive through and get everything behind the ball.  Injury is another possibility.  The sticky stuff could affect his spin rate.  Another thing is not staying behind the ball and driving through it.  Cutting it or having a crazy arm side run can also decrease spin rate.  That would be easy to see and would be something identified pretty quickly.  They have every technological toy in the tool shed to analyze this and to help fix it.  If it's an injury or a change in flexibility, then no tool can help that.   

 

The White Sox?  We can't even successfully determine whether a player needs to be ILed more often that not.

Whatever's going on, there is something off with his leg drive/explosiveness to the plate.

Giolito has always been the pitching equivalent of a Konerko or Quentin, he's way too much in his own head and overly analytical/hard onhimself.

Edited by caulfield12
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2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

HiHere's 1.

Giolitos era this season is 5.34.

His expected era is 4.20.

That's absurd

Lynn has had similar results, albeit in a smaller sample size (ERA 5.30, FIP 4.28).

Cease, Kopech and Cueto 0.80 + better than their FIP, with Cease losing 10 of his 41 runs as unearned.

The Sox have given up 61 unearned runs entering today. Only the Cubs (70), Giants (64) and Rays (62) have given up more.

I guess that’s what happens when you have six DH/1B among 13 hitters on your active roster, plus two catchers.

Edited by South Side Hit Men
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21 hours ago, South Side Hit Men said:

Lynn has had similar results, albeit in a smaller sample size (ERA 5.30, FIP 4.28).

Cease, Kopech and Cueto 0.80 + better than their FIP, with Cease losing 10 of his 41 runs as unearned.

The Sox have given up 61 unearned runs entering today. Only the Cubs (70), Giants (64) and Rays (62) have given up more.

I guess that’s what happens when you have six DH/1B among 13 hitters on your active roster, plus two catchers.

And that is dramatically undercutting the impact of the shoddy defense.  When you don't get to the ball cause your outfield range is terrible - it doesn't count as an error.  

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7 hours ago, JoeCredeYes said:

Hoping he comes back strong early next year in a contract year, and is then dealt for prospects. 

You're not going to get value for him if you trade him after the season starts. Have to do it before the season starts, when a team can get a full year out of him and offer him the QO (if that's still a thing).

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2 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

You're not going to get value for him if you trade him after the season starts. Have to do it before the season starts, when a team can get a full year out of him and offer him the QO (if that's still a thing).

No, a QO does not exist next year.

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Giolito hit 96 mph tonight, which he hasn't done basically all year. 

(Watching the replay) 

If he has some velo back, I'd think that's enough to tender him a contract. I have no doubt that he'll put in the work to right himself after a terrible season. 

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Gio has been OK lately.  6 of last 8 starts have been solid, with the Houston stinker sprinkled in and the other tough outing against Cleveland facing them for a 2nd time in a week.  Sox are 5-3 in his last 8 starts. Considering how disappointing his season has been, you take that.  

 

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11 minutes ago, bmags said:

it doesn't? I thought it stuck around with the intl draft fallout?

You know what you're right, I missed the update in late July while moving. Apparently the QO system is back as it was during the last CBA and the deadline for an international draft deal fell through. My bad. 

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31 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Gio has been OK lately.  6 of last 8 starts have been solid, with the Houston stinker sprinkled in and the other tough outing against Cleveland facing them for a 2nd time in a week.  Sox are 5-3 in his last 8 starts. Considering how disappointing his season has been, you take that.  

 

I didn't even realize now much the defense had killed Giolito.  I don't know what the leaders in spread between ERA and defensive adjusted ERA is, but 1.12 runs of difference, if it isn't the leader, has to be damned close.  This year the MLB league average era is 3.97 current, so while we are talking about a drop off from last year of about 3/4 of a run, we are no longer talking about almost 2 runs worse, which is a huge difference.

All of the ridiculous hyperbole about non-tendering Lucas is misguided.  Get the guy a real defense, and he should be back to normal.

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