Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Did they say it was because of financials?  Because I don't remember seeing that.

Publicly no, but it was definitely one of those things circulating on twitter as a reason why they wouldn't add much salary. Then, they proceeded to not add much salary. Definitive? No. Possible and consistent with what they did? Yes. 

[fathom]

If Abreu leaves, him signing with the Guardians makes so much sense.  Brewers, Cubs and Marlins also make sense.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, fathom said:

If Abreu leaves, him signing with the Guardians makes so much sense.  Brewers, Cubs and Marlins also make sense.

Houston. 

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Publicly no, but it was definitely one of those things circulating on twitter as a reason why they wouldn't add much salary. Then, they proceeded to not add much salary. Definitive? No. Possible and consistent with what they did? Yes. 

It was also consistent with them not wanting to expend resources on a DOA product.  The only guy they added was a guy who was signed through 2024.

[southsider2k5]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

If Abreu leaves, him signing with the Guardians makes so much sense.  Brewers, Cubs and Marlins also make sense.

All except the part where Cleveland spends big on FA.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

All except the part where Cleveland spends big on FA.

Ironically, the White Sox have some familiarity with Cleveland spending decent change on first baseman thanks to Yonder Alonso and Edwin Encarnacion. 

[ChiSox59]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

And yet, we definitely heard that they didn’t want to add any more than Diekman at the trade deadline this year because of their financials. So you may not want to have this conversation and you can insist all you want that it will be easy for them to push beyond last years’ payroll, but it is definitely an open question.

It is definitely an open question.  I have never denied that.  I have no idea if they'll actually spend $30M this offseason on the 2023 payroll.  Nor do you.  The difference is you state it as fact as if there is no possible way they could ever exceed $197M as if it some magic threshold that if exceeded, the universe will combust.  

In reality, there is no meaningful difference between $195M, $197M, or $200M.  Just like there is no meaningful difference between Cease, Kopech and Giolito shaking out at $13.75M in arb like my off the cuff arb projections stated in the OP, or $17M.  Its largely insignificant in the scheme of things.  

[Bob Sacamano]

17 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is definitely an open question.  I have never denied that.  I have no idea if they'll actually spend $30M this offseason on the 2023 payroll.  Nor do you.  The difference is you state it as fact as if there is no possible way they could ever exceed $197M as if it some magic threshold that if exceeded, the universe will combust.  

In reality, there is no meaningful difference between $195M, $197M, or $200M.  Just like there is no meaningful difference between Cease, Kopech and Giolito shaking out at $13.75M in arb like my off the cuff arb projections stated in the OP, or $17M.  Its largely insignificant in the scheme of things.  

He kept doing it all last off-season too.

[pcq]

I do not think they should bring Grandal back. That ship has sailed.

[Balta1701]

33 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is definitely an open question.  I have never denied that.  I have no idea if they'll actually spend $30M this offseason on the 2023 payroll.  Nor do you.  The difference is you state it as fact as if there is no possible way they could ever exceed $197M as if it some magic threshold that if exceeded, the universe will combust.  

In reality, there is no meaningful difference between $195M, $197M, or $200M.  Just like there is no meaningful difference between Cease, Kopech and Giolito shaking out at $13.75M in arb like my off the cuff arb projections stated in the OP, or $17M.  Its largely insignificant in the scheme of things.  

Dude, you insist "I stated as fact there's no way they could ever exceed that threshold"...and then insist it is 100% fact that they can exceed that threshold. I'm not allowed to question whether they will, but you absolutely know for certain that there's no difference in that $5 million, and you absolutely know for certain that Cease will get less in arbitration than Giolito did and you're outraged at someone pointing out the difference. 

[hi8is]

3 hours ago, Tnetennba said:

They all look pretty stone-faced like they’d rather be anywhere else.  Or had to sit there against their will. 

Probably staring at him thinking, “He was a drunk and is a drunk and will be a drunk.”

[tray]

Just now, tray said:

For the next season or two,  Jose is probably going to be a better hitter and first basemen than Vaughn, and he adds leadership qualities.   Eloy and Vaughn carried this team during an important two week stretch. Fans complain that the Sox lacked depth and therefore,  injuries exposed them. OK , so why trade away players that provide depth, like AV?  Keep PITO, AV and Eloy.

Moncada and Grandal are  in a different category. Even when back from injury, they just failed to hit the ball. Those are the "core players" that I would consider trading, even if the Sox take a hit on the Contracts.

RF might come down to Sheets vs Colas.   Second base can be filled by Mendick or Romy.

Sox need a starter and some bullpen pitchers. I would trade Liam Hendriks while he still has value and look around for another Closer.  Just my 2 cents.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

27 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Dude, you insist "I stated as fact there's no way they could ever exceed that threshold"...and then insist it is 100% fact that they can exceed that threshold. I'm not allowed to question whether they will, but you absolutely know for certain that there's no difference in that $5 million, and you absolutely know for certain that Cease will get less in arbitration than Giolito did and you're outraged at someone pointing out the difference. 

He literally states in his 3rd sentence "I have no idea".....

[ChiSox59]

58 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Dude, you insist "I stated as fact there's no way they could ever exceed that threshold"...and then insist it is 100% fact that they can exceed that threshold. I'm not allowed to question whether they will, but you absolutely know for certain that there's no difference in that $5 million, and you absolutely know for certain that Cease will get less in arbitration than Giolito did and you're outraged at someone pointing out the difference. 

I literally said I have no idea if they'll spent $30M on 2023.  Try reading before responding. 

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I literally said I have no idea if they'll spent $30M on 2023.  Try reading before responding. 

"In reality, there is no meaningful difference between $195M, $197M, or $200M. "

"There is zero reason the Sox can’t spend $30M this offseason. "

"I’d be shocked if they didn’t have a payroll of at least $190M. "

Seems like you are pretty confident in your inside knowledge of their finances to me. 

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

"In reality, there is no meaningful difference between $195M, $197M, or $200M. "

"There is zero reason the Sox can’t spend $30M this offseason. "

"I’d be shocked if they didn’t have a payroll of at least $190M. "

Seems like you are pretty confident in your inside knowledge of their finances to me. 

There is a MASSIVE difference between can't and not willing to.

[Bob Sacamano]

31 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is a MASSIVE difference between can't and not willing to.

Yup

[ChiSox59]

40 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is a MASSIVE difference between can't and not willing to.

Certainly don’t forward to having to read this tired BS in every single thread all offseason. Such a broken record. 

[Jack Parkman]

47 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is a MASSIVE difference between can't and not willing to.

In baseball, a sport with no salary cap, for all 30 teams it's always the latter. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Certainly don’t forward to having to read this tired BS in every single thread all offseason. Such a broken record. 

Then make your numbers make sense so I don't have anything to call you out about. Not that difficult.

Given the amount of work we put into these, when I see Cease getting 60% of what Giolito got and 40% of what Burnes got in someone's arbitration projection, and at the same time Kopech getting half of what Lopez got, I am going to always point that out as an issue. It almost looks like its deliberately misleading. And when you use the same numbers again later in the thread, I'm going to call it out again.

[he gone.]

4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I get where you're going with the concept and I don't think it's that outrageous, but I hit a wall right here. I don't think anyone takes on $10 million for Leury or $9 million for Kelly in order to take on Gavin Sheets or Jake Burger. Sheets had plenty of opportunities this year and has an OPS in the low .700s, that's not good enough for a DH/1b. Burger hit better, but has an injury history and was awful at 3b when given a chance there. As a 1b/DH, mid-.700s OPS is tolerable but not great.

I wouldn't take Leury or Kelly on in order to get either of those guys if I was the GM of another team, unless you were taking like half their salaries back in bad money from my roster as well. I can get an .800-ish OPS and average defense at 1b from CJ Cron for $7.5 million/year, why are either of those guys worth more?

yah, i think you're also right. i think it depends on how one views kelly. i know he was god awful this year, but if it was a 1 year deal and he was returning to FA market I think it's fair to say some team would roll the dice on a 1 year, $6 or $7mm deal. (think Velazquez or even someone like James Paxton). So you're really saying for $3-4mm does buy a Sheets? Leury is a much tougher case ... 2 years ... but maybe someone sees 2020-21 version and maybe same idea ... 

It's a stretch, maybe even have to throw in another wild card guy in A or AA ball. Pilkington type. Think that's worth it for where we stand currently in this s%*# show. Have to double down over next 2 years before guys' contracts start falling off and leaving in FA. 

[GreenSox]

15 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Trading for one might be the wrong move, they might get super lucky and have one pop out of their system like Martin did this year, but they desperately need starting pitching.

Then I'd say sign some 5th starter type.   Give Lambert a try (he was mostly a starter in the minors).  Hahn has made 3-5 good trades in a decade,  and probably at least 15 negative trades, including a couple that were catastrophic.  The odds say it's not worth the risk.

Edited October 4, 2022 by GreenSox

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, he gone. said:

yah, i think you're also right. i think it depends on how one views kelly. i know he was god awful this year, but if it was a 1 year deal and he was returning to FA market I think it's fair to say some team would roll the dice on a 1 year, $6 or $7mm deal. (think Velazquez or even someone like James Paxton). So you're really saying for $3-4mm does buy a Sheets? Leury is a much tougher case ... 2 years ... but maybe someone sees 2020-21 version and maybe same idea ... 

It's a stretch, maybe even have to throw in another wild card guy in A or AA ball. Pilkington type. Think that's worth it for where we stand currently in this s%*# show. Have to double down over next 2 years before guys' contracts start falling off and leaving in FA. 

If a Gavin Sheets was on the FA market, where he's -0.5 fWAR in his previous 2 seasons and his most recent season was a .707 OPS in 400 plate appearances, I think he gets a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. The only value in this player in terms of a trade is that he has several years of cheap control and a minor league option, so if he does get better there's upside and a place to stash him. Right now, he has not demonstrated that he is a big league roster caliber player, let alone a starter. So yeah I don't think he lops very much off of either of those deals - bottom feeding teams don't like taking on bad money just to get players they can beat on the FA market, and actually competitive teams won't be wanting to take on that deal to get a player that might not make their roster.

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Then I'd say sign some 5th starter type.   Give Lambert a try (he was mostly a starter in the minors).  Hahn has made 3 good trades in a decade,  and probably at least 15 negative trades, including a couple that were catastrophic.  The odds say it's not worth the risk.

If Davis Martin and Jimmy Lambert are the White Sox's main 5th/6th starter options and they're each getting 20 or more starts, I wouldn't have a lot of confidence in the 2023 season. If they throw in another 5th starter type, at least yeah I'd feel better a tiny bit, but what are the odds that is a step down from the current rotation with Cueto? The rotation is already, to me, not good enough to compete with Cleveland, and swapping Cueto and Velasquez for Chris Archer or Chad Kuhl seems like a downgrade on paper. 

[T R U]

If the Sox are still going for it, which I no doubt believe they will, then this is what I am doing assuming Rick Hahn knows that his chances are probably up if he fails again. Provided some of these guys bounce back and aren't actually cooked and we have a competent manager, this is easily the favorite for the division in 2023.

Vaughn and Montgomery packaged in some way to get Burnes from Milwaukee.

1. Cease

2. Burnes

3. Lynn

4. Kopech

5. Giolito

6. Martin

 

With just Sheets and Garcia on the bench, we would need catcher and another OF as well.

C - Grandal

1B - Abreu

2B - Sosa

3B - Moncada

SS - Anderson

LF  - Pollock

CF - Robert

RF - Colas

DH - Jimenez