Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I'm expecting payroll to go down.  I  won't be surprised when they say they "lost" money last year. They had crazy aggressive attendance projections they didn't come close to and they were expecting playoff revenue which they didn't come close to either.  I'm not sure how but I am expecting a decrease in payroll. 

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm expecting payroll to go down.  I  won't be surprised when they say they "lost" money last year. They had crazy aggressive attendance projections they didn't come close to and they were expecting playoff revenue which they didn't come close to either.  I'm not sure how but I am expecting a decrease in payroll. 

Yeah, I've been kind of guessing the budget at most is what we were at last year, which sucks. Gotta get creative to move some money around potentially.

[GREEDY]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So give a real example then. 

 

Zach Muckenhirn,  720k.

I'm saying DEPENDING ON THE BUDGET if it is necessary to clear money so you can buy a RF and/or 2B and/or SP.... you have extremely limited options.  

Trading Liam and praying that you can cover for 3 months until the deadline from within the organization or the veteran scrap heap seems like it could be the best fundraising decision.

 

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

10 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm expecting payroll to go down.  I  won't be surprised when they say they "lost" money last year. They had crazy aggressive attendance projections they didn't come close to and they were expecting playoff revenue which they didn't come close to either.  I'm not sure how but I am expecting a decrease in payroll. 

Jerry needs to sell the team. It's not a big market operation. They should be doing the opposite. It's the perfect time to push the chips and spend money. They're going to have to pivot slightly after 2023 regardless, due to the contracts on the roster. 

[Jack Parkman]

28 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I'm expecting payroll to go down.  I  won't be surprised when they say they "lost" money last year. They had crazy aggressive attendance projections they didn't come close to and they were expecting playoff revenue which they didn't come close to either.  I'm not sure how but I am expecting a decrease in payroll. 

Yeah, I'm expecting a $175M budget for 2023 and there's no way they can even attempt to fill holes without trading some MLB players. If I had to guess, Hendriks and Graveman are at the top of the list. 

[Balta1701]

20 minutes ago, GREEDY said:

Zach Muckenhirn,  720k.

I'm saying DEPENDING ON THE BUDGET if it is necessary to clear money so you can buy a RF and/or 2B and/or SP.... you have extremely limited options.  

Trading Liam and praying that you can cover for 3 months until the deadline from within the organization or the veteran scrap heap seems like it could be the best fundraising decision.

 

 

I will again take the opinion that if you subtract the best player from a slightly above average bullpen and replace him with a 28 year old journeyman, most likely you turn that into a below average bullpen and that offsets the good you did by improving the OF. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

45 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Jerry needs to sell the team. It's not a big market operation. They should be doing the opposite. It's the perfect time to push the chips and spend money. They're going to have to pivot slightly after 2023 regardless, due to the contracts on the roster. 

Do you also expect payroll to decrease in 2022?  What're your expectations?

[bmags]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

I will again take the opinion that if you subtract the best player from a slightly above average bullpen and replace him with a 28 year old journeyman, most likely you turn that into a below average bullpen and that offsets the good you did by improving the OF. 

You are replacing him with Garrett Crochet and a healthy Aaron bummer and regression, and then supplementing the Middle relievers with additional arms and hope they sort out. 

The sox don't have easy choices but I think of hard choices, at least you could get value back and salary from hendricks, whereas you cannot from joe Kelly.

Graveman vs. Crochet, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Diekman could be a strong backend. If it's a weak one, it was already going to be weak.

[GreenSox]

The Sox' 1,4, and 7 prospects, not to mention younger roster players Mendick and Gonzalez,  are all MI.  Putting any sort of investment in a 2B (via FA or trade) seems, well, extremely Hahnish. 

To me the downside of trading Hendriks is that he's not financial bargain, so it's just going to be a salary dump; Hahn doesn't need any more $$ for more of his bullshit signees (Sox would have had a better team last season had Hahn had less money to spend).  So unless they are going to invest in a real FA OF or SP, THIS season,  it's better to hold him to July when they might get something for him.

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by GreenSox

[Jerksticks]

4 hours ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Jerry needs to sell the team. It's not a big market operation. They should be doing the opposite. It's the perfect time to push the chips and spend money. They're going to have to pivot slightly after 2023 regardless, due to the contracts on the roster. 

It’s sadly true.  They had all the opportunity to be the forefront of bringing in a young generation, inclusive of everybody.  “Change the game”.
 

TA with his YouTube videos in ST was cutting edge fan engagement.  Best thing I’ve ever seen.  
 

Could have signed Harper & Machado.  Create this new exciting murderer’s row bad boys of baseball.  
 

Could have rebranded baseball and put the White Sox as the focus.   The money would have been pouring in by the billions.  
 

Totally messed it all up.  Did the same mid market s%*# as always.  

[hankchifan]

1 hour ago, Jerksticks said:

It’s sadly true.  They had all the opportunity to be the forefront of bringing in a young generation, inclusive of everybody.  “Change the game”.
 

TA with his YouTube videos in ST was cutting edge fan engagement.  Best thing I’ve ever seen.  
 

Could have signed Harper & Machado.  Create this new exciting murderer’s row bad boys of baseball.  
 

Could have rebranded baseball and put the White Sox as the focus.   The money would have been pouring in by the billions.  
 

Totally messed it all up.  Did the same mid market s%*# as always.  

We need to sign a slugger or two. As we are seeing in the playoffs, the teams hitting the homers are the ones winning.  Our power outage is why we had a losing record at homer friendly GRF.

[hi8is]

Duck the Assblows.

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

You are replacing him with Garrett Crochet and a healthy Aaron bummer and regression, and then supplementing the Middle relievers with additional arms and hope they sort out. 

The sox don't have easy choices but I think of hard choices, at least you could get value back and salary from hendricks, whereas you cannot from joe Kelly.

Graveman vs. Crochet, Bummer, Kelly, Lopez, Diekman could be a strong backend. If it's a weak one, it was already going to be weak.

Let’s spell out how people think this is going to work.

They think the White Sox have exactly $10 million to play with. They look at a $5 million starter and a $5 million OF and say the White Sox aren’t close to possibly competing if that’s all they add.

So they say ok, we will save $15 million out of the bullpen by trading away its best pitcher. Now they will sign the second best OF on the market, but keep the same 0.5 WAR fifth starter. And now we are so confident that this OF will put us over the top, despite a weaker bullpen than we started with, that we are willing to go 5 or 6 years to beat the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers. 

In reality, if you think your team is so far away they can’t compete with the stronger bullpen and scrap heap additions like Pederson, your team won’t compete by being 1 or 2 wins better next year and having the contract last until Nimmo is in his mid 30s, and you have no business trying to sign that kind of contract.

[Chicago White Sox]

If they plan to drop payroll, then I don’t see how we can reasonably compete next year.  That would be so reminisce of the “half-ass” years leading up to the rebuild, but nothing would surprise me with Jerry.  Hopefully this isn’t the case, although Hahn’s messaging at his end of season presser seemed to imply funds would be tight.

[bmags]

10 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Let’s spell out how people think this is going to work.

They think the White Sox have exactly $10 million to play with. They look at a $5 million starter and a $5 million OF and say the White Sox aren’t close to possibly competing if that’s all they add.

So they say ok, we will save $15 million out of the bullpen by trading away its best pitcher. Now they will sign the second best OF on the market, but keep the same 0.5 WAR fifth starter. And now we are so confident that this OF will put us over the top, despite a weaker bullpen than we started with, that we are willing to go 5 or 6 years to beat the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers. 

In reality, if you think your team is so far away they can’t compete with the stronger bullpen and scrap heap additions like Pederson, your team won’t compete by being 1 or 2 wins better next year and having the contract last until Nimmo is in his mid 30s, and you have no business trying to sign that kind of contract.

There are no “over the top” decisions to be made this year. But I’d bet those that believe in signing Nimmo see a player more likely to hold his value and provide more wins than the 34 year old reliever.

And you can always trade nimmo. For example we are talking about trading Hendriks.

 But you also don’t have to make the same decisions you make in your “well if this happens then you must do this”.

 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If they plan to drop payroll, then I don’t see how we can reasonably compete next year.  That would be so reminisce of the “half-ass” years leading up to the rebuild, but nothing would surprise me with Jerry.  Hopefully this isn’t the case, although Hahn’s messaging at his end of season presser seemed to imply funds would be tight.

The “drop payroll” setup isn’t in my eyes all that different from the steady payroll setup.

The White Sox are well behind Cleveland as of right now. If they went out and signed Nimmo and Rodon to 5-6 year deals, that fully offsets what they are losing to free agency on paper, but still leaves them well behind Cleveland…unless a lot of people who stank this year can improve.

If they have to go cheap, then they partially offset what they are losing to free agency, but the season will still be determined by whether a lot of people who stank this year can improve. 

In either case, the results of the season are dominated by the guys already here. If they can recover with a new coach, they have a shot at a playoff spot. If they can’t, then you’ve cleared out a couple bad contracts this year and gotten closer to a couple other ones ending.

Fill what you can, be cautious about long term money if there is a hard payroll limit, find a real set of coaches and see what happens.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

There are no “over the top” decisions to be made this year. But I’d bet those that believe in signing Nimmo see a player more likely to hold his value and provide more wins than the 34 year old reliever.

And you can always trade nimmo. For example we are talking about trading Hendriks.

 But you also don’t have to make the same decisions you make in your “well if this happens then you must do this”.

 

Here are the players who signed $100 million contracts 1 season ago. 
Seager $325
Bryant $182
Semien $175
Freeman $162
Story $140
Baez $140
Scherzer $130
Ray $115
Gausman $110
Correa $105
Castellanos $100

How many of those deals could be moved without eating money right now, one year in? I’d say Freeman, Correa, Gausman, probably Semien, Maybe Seager. 

If half of the free agent market is hard to move just 1 year out, then what are the odds guys will be movable several years out? And yes you could attach prospects to guys to move them….which most teams don’t do now because the young players are much more valuable, and the White Sox have a crappy system anyway.

[GREEDY]

17 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

I will again take the opinion that if you subtract the best player from a slightly above average bullpen and replace him with a 28 year old journeyman, most likely you turn that into a below average bullpen and that offsets the good you did by improving the OF. 

I think from a sample size standpoint you can get way luckier with one spot in your bullpen than a corner OF. 

Most people are assuming any additions will be met with an equal financial subtraction, I know it is tough, especially at this point in the offseason, but it is likely the reality.

[Harry Chappas]

Let Abreu walk, sign Nimmo, bring up Colas, plug in someone at 2B from the system.

I don't know what the finances will look like but that is what I come up with. 

I love to sign Rodon as well but that isn't happening.

In reality I think hey bring up Colas, resign Abreu and waste $7M on the 2023 version of Vince Velasquez.

[bmags]

36 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Here are the players who signed $100 million contracts 1 season ago. 
Seager $325
Bryant $182
Semien $175
Freeman $162
Story $140
Baez $140
Scherzer $130
Ray $115
Gausman $110
Correa $105
Castellanos $100

How many of those deals could be moved without eating money right now, one year in? I’d say Freeman, Correa, Gausman, probably Semien, Maybe Seager. 

If half of the free agent market is hard to move just 1 year out, then what are the odds guys will be movable several years out? And yes you could attach prospects to guys to move them….which most teams don’t do now because the young players are much more valuable, and the White Sox have a crappy system anyway.

Why would we trade Nimmo one year in? You said mid 30s.

I can think of a team trading a 2-year contract mid thirties outfielder last year for a one year deal of a top reliever. And if you have to eat money 4 years from now…that’s a 4 years from now problem. Maybe make a functional farm between now and then.

[Balta1701]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why would we trade Nimmo one year in? You said mid 30s.

I can think of a team trading a 2-year contract mid thirties outfielder last year for a one year deal of a top reliever. And if you have to eat money 4 years from now…that’s a 4 years from now problem. Maybe make a functional farm between now and then.

All right let’s play this out.

Using the numbers here, 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/467/

Colson Montgomery has enough value that you could trade Montgomery, Grandal, Garcia, Kelly, and Diekman for a utility guy from someone. 

This clears out many of the mistakes of last offseason and clears the payroll we need for Nimmo quite readily. It does so without hurting the 2023 White Sox at all, the reliable arms stay in the bullpen and now there’s even a spot for Crochet.

I assume I’ve solved the puzzle and everyone agrees this is the right strategy, right? Does exactly what you said you wanted to do, trades away that easily movable back end of Grandal’s deal.

[GreenSox]

30 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I assume I’ve solved the puzzle and everyone agrees this is the right strategy, right? Does exactly what you said you wanted to do, trades away that easily movable back end of Grandal’s deal.

I'll take door #2:   face the reality that this team isn't winning squat until they can really reshape it, which will involve both the development of a few players like Montgomery and getting rid of some contracts.  So lay back in 2023, let most of the contracts of the riff-raff expire, and stay flexible and keep their eyes open to  take advantage of opportunities as they arise, which they will (and which the FO likely won't  take advantage of).    
 

[bmags]

41 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

All right let’s play this out.

Using the numbers here, 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/467/

Colson Montgomery has enough value that you could trade Montgomery, Grandal, Garcia, Kelly, and Diekman for a utility guy from someone. 

This clears out many of the mistakes of last offseason and clears the payroll we need for Nimmo quite readily. It does so without hurting the 2023 White Sox at all, the reliable arms stay in the bullpen and now there’s even a spot for Crochet.

I assume I’ve solved the puzzle and everyone agrees this is the right strategy, right? Does exactly what you said you wanted to do, trades away that easily movable back end of Grandal’s deal.

Wow great post. You are so good at understanding value, I'm sure your history is not full of easily remembered examples of you being obnoxiously wrong about what contracts are movable.

[thedoctor]

honestly, if ta, moncada, robert, eloy and giolito don't have huge bounceback/leap in production years, it probably doesn't matter what they do. if the "core" is truly rotten, then we're back to where we started.

[almagest]

Not my plan, but what I think they'll do:

1. Let Abreu walk
2. Bring Colas up once they get the extra year on him
3. Let Engel go
4. Get a healthy Bummer and Crochet back in the bullpen (Crochet should be starting in AAA but he's back in the pen)
5. Run it back with Eloy DH/LF, Pollock LF, Colas RF, Sosa/Gonzalez 2B