Your 2023 Off-Season Plan

[chw42]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

Gallo vs Benintendi......who do you choose? I'd probably choose Gallo. 

Gallo has the much higher ceiling, but his floor will have every fan hating him. 

Benintendi's floor is much higher, but the likelihood he gives you anything more than a 3 WAR season is pretty low. 

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Gallo has the much higher ceiling, but his floor will have every fan hating him. 

Benintendi's floor is much higher, but the likelihood he gives you anything more than a 3 WAR season is pretty low. 

How in Benintendi in the OF? He doesn't play any RF. While not ideal, probably not a deal breaker as Colas can cover RF.  But we'd be back to the Pollock in RF games to start 2023.

Gallo's being a pretty good OF helps a lot.  I think there is a decent chance he'd a solid player.  But he'd be third on my list after Nimmo and Conforto.  

[Bob Sacamano]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

How in Benintendi in the OF? He doesn't play any RF. While not ideal, probably not a deal breaker as Colas can cover RF.  But we'd be back to the Pollock in RF games to start 2023.

Gallo's being a pretty good OF helps a lot. I think there is a decent chance he'd a solid player.  But he'd be third on my list after Nimmo and Conforto.  

Limiting the shift should help him.

[southsider2k5]

10 minutes ago, chw42 said:

Gallo has the much higher ceiling, but his floor will have every fan hating him. 

Benintendi's floor is much higher, but the likelihood he gives you anything more than a 3 WAR season is pretty low. 

I like Gallo as a pretty serious bounceback candidate.  The NYY effect is real.  Not everyone can play under those lights.

[chw42]

18 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

How in Benintendi in the OF? He doesn't play any RF. While not ideal, probably not a deal breaker as Colas can cover RF.  But we'd be back to the Pollock in RF games to start 2023.

Gallo's being a pretty good OF helps a lot.  I think there is a decent chance he'd a solid player.  But he'd be third on my list after Nimmo and Conforto.  

He won a gold glove a year ago. He's a decent left fielder and the metrics back it up. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Gallo is mighty risky with Yoan and Grandal also in the lineup. You’d be essentially banking on bounce backs from all three, and we really have no idea how much the shift will impact their balls in play. There isn’t anything from stopping a team from putting an OF’er where the 2B used to be. It’s a loophole.

[Quin]

7 minutes ago, chw42 said:

He won a gold glove a year ago. He's a decent left fielder and the metrics back it up. 

So did Gallo in 2020 and 2021, where he was primarily a right fielder.

I didn't even think of the shift, which Bob pointed out.

[chw42]

27 minutes ago, Quin said:

So did Gallo in 2020 and 2021, where he was primarily a right fielder.

I didn't even think of the shift, which Bob pointed out.

The lack of an exaggerated shift will help Gallo a decent amount. And maybe that'll be enough to make you forget about that 40% K rate. He has been an effective player before despite having a K rate near that number. 

FWIW, this is Gallo's spray chart last year on pulled/straight away grounders/liners that were either barrels, solid contact, or flares. 

Let's just say he gets 9 extra hits from that (just from eyeballing). And I think that's being kind of generous. His batting average improves from .160 to .186. His overall OPS, assuming those hits are singles, goes up to .690. Better, but that's still pretty bad. 

I did a similar lookup for Grandal and it looks like he would gain about 10 hits from the lack of a shift. That would have brought his average from .202 to .232. That would have brought his slugging up to about .300. While the shift should help Grandal, it won't lift him out of awfulness until he finds his power again. 
 

The same could be said about Moncada. All 3 of these guys get about 10 extra singles from the shift going away. It's not a bad improvement on batting average, but it will not change who they are as hitters. 

Edited November 7, 2022 by chw42

[MEANS]

1 hour ago, pcq said:

Replacing Jose with Vaughn is a bit of a downgrade but I can see clearing the old vet with the young cost-controlled guy.  Grifol talking to Grandal leaves me wondering. It seems clear Grandal does not have much left in the tank.

See I think Vaughn has the potential to be really good, which by mid season could be an upgrade. He's been playing out of position for too long.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Gallo vs Benintendi......who do you choose? I'd probably choose Gallo. 

Gallo sucks

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Gallo vs Benintendi......who do you choose? I'd probably choose Gallo. 

I don’t have enough confidence in this team to think that it’s a good idea to be signing 4 year deals for mid-level corner OFs. A 1 year deal will probably get a worse player, but the odds of it affecting the 2025 team poorly are limited.

[Leonard Zelig]

1 hour ago, pcq said:

Replacing Jose with Vaughn is a bit of a downgrade but I can see clearing the old vet with the young cost-controlled guy.  Grifol talking to Grandal leaves me wondering. It seems clear Grandal does not have much left in the tank.

Yeah, I feel like we just have to really hope that Grandal was never fully healthy last year and that he will be next year.  The shift ban should help him some. 

[Balta1701]

49 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I like Gallo as a pretty serious bounceback candidate.  The NYY effect is real.  Not everyone can play under those lights.

The other real effect for him was a major dropoff in his exit velocity, which is absolutely key for a hitter of his profile. He has to be hitting the ball as hard as he can all the time. If he isn’t doing that, then he’s not going to be that useful. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Leonard Zelig said:

Yeah, I feel like we just have to really hope that Grandal was never fully healthy last year and that he will be next year.  The shift ban should help him some. 

It seems unlikely that he’s going to get more healthy as he gets older and catches more games.

[chw42]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It seems unlikely that he’s going to get more healthy as he gets older and catches more games.

He's got back and knee problems. The only thing that'll help him is some HGH so his injuries can recover. 

[Leonard Zelig]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

It seems unlikely that he’s going to get more healthy as he gets older and catches more games.

Of course, but didn’t he have some type of surgery last year?  With some things time and rest the only way to recover. 

[pcq]

25 minutes ago, MEANS said:

See I think Vaughn has the potential to be really good, which by mid season could be an upgrade. He's been playing out of position for too long.

Vaughn is the only one I recall with four-hit games, however I think he has reached his potential and he is fairly one-dimensional.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I think I'd put Benintendi above Gallo.  I think Gallo is done and while I do really like his D, his offense almost can't be played. Benintendi should be "fine" in both areas,  Again, give me Conforto every day over either of these guys.

[chw42]

With Diaz getting $20 million a year for 5 years, does that make Liam's 2 years $28 million remaining seem...cheap? 

In all honestly, Liam's arm issues scare the s%*# out of me. There were certain games where it looked like his arm was about to fall off. He's getting older and he's a guy who's getting by on velocity. I don't think his margin of error is real high if he isn't throwing 98+. 

The problem is that maybe a team like the Dodgers would take him, but his luxury tax hit is $18 million this year because of that stupid guaranteed option we put during the 4th year of his contract. So to a team like LA, who is near the top threshold of the luxury tax, Liam costs them a lot more than $13 million. 

So which team needs an elite closer? The Phillies? The Yankees? The Blue Jays? Boston? Every team there besides Toronto is also near the luxury tax threshold. Maybe the Phillies don't care coming off a WS appearance. This would also more or less be a salary dump so you can go sign a mid-tier SP or another OFer. You have to ask yourself if those guys are worth it over one of the best closers in the league. Assuming his arm doesn't fall off over the next 2 years. 

[Dick Allen]

The espn.com way too early power rankings. Not too fond of the Chairman.

17. Chicago White Sox

2022 record: 81-81 (second in the AL Central)

2022 final ranking: 16

There are excuses to consider -- Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez all missed significant time with injuries -- but the disappointing season was mostly the result of too many subpar performances on a roster that didn't have quality depth to survive a few injuries.

On the bright side, four-fifths of the rotation returns with Dylan Cease perhaps the preseason AL Cy Young favorite after going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings. Lucas Giolito (4.90 ERA) needs to figure out what went wrong, and Michael Kopech has to pitch deeper into games after averaging less than five innings per start. The lineup still needs some left-handed balance, and Yoan Moncada needs to bounce back (although his big 2019 season looks more and more like a juiced-ball fluke). The biggest problem, however, might be owner Jerry Reinsdorf and his unwillingness to spend a few extra pennies to, you know, try to win the World Series.

 

[Balta1701]

18 minutes ago, chw42 said:

With Diaz getting $20 million a year for 5 years, does that make Liam's 2 years $28 million remaining seem...cheap? 

In all honestly, Liam's arm issues scare the s%*# out of me. There were certain games where it looked like his arm was about to fall off. He's getting older and he's a guy who's getting by on velocity. I don't think his margin of error is real high if he isn't throwing 98+. 

The problem is that maybe a team like the Dodgers would take him, but his luxury tax hit is $18 million this year because of that stupid guaranteed option we put during the 4th year of his contract. So to a team like LA, who is near the top threshold of the luxury tax, Liam costs them a lot more than $13 million. 

So which team needs an elite closer? The Phillies? The Yankees? The Blue Jays? Boston? Every team there besides Toronto is also near the luxury tax threshold. Maybe the Phillies don't care coming off a WS appearance. This would also more or less be a salary dump so you can go sign a mid-tier SP or another OFer. You have to ask yourself if those guys are worth it over one of the best closers in the league. Assuming his arm doesn't fall off over the next 2 years. 

Well first of all, the Dodgers are actually in somewhat better shape than we'd think. I will admit this is a little complicated as I don't know how $35 million to Bauer gets counted by their luxury tax since he's suspended. If I avoid counting Bauer and assume they drop Bellinger, they have something like $170 million on the books for the rest of their arbitration guys and filling out a roster. That's comparable to where the White Sox are.

Bauer, of course, takes that to $205 million if he's counted? I don't know how to handle that.

Obviously beyond that, another $20 million will go to keeping Kershaw, and Mookie Betts has a $5 million signing bonus to book somewhere, but that's still what, $230 million including Bauer? Spotrac has their "Bauer included" money in 2022 to be $301 million. They are clearing out good contracts (Turner), but also terrible contracts (Kimbrel), so they absolutely have some serious money to spend, $70 million give or take to get back to this year's payroll, with no reason to think they won't spend beyond that.

Secondly, they absolutely are going to be sitting there wanting bullpen help. So if we want to sell off that player, yes they could take him on.

Third, you can also come up with other teams. The Braves got good performance out of Jansen this year on a 1 year deal, but he's now a free agent. The Yankees could absolutely be in the market for a closer as well, and yes the Phillies could as well.

Finally, I still see no point in trading away Hendriks without trading away other guys. If the White Sox are trading away their closer and going with Graveman, who had an ERA over 5 in the second half, as a closer next year, the White Sox aren't making moves to get better next year. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 hour ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Gallo sucks

Does our front office agree with that assessment?

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

The other real effect for him was a major dropoff in his exit velocity, which is absolutely key for a hitter of his profile. He has to be hitting the ball as hard as he can all the time. If he isn’t doing that, then he’s not going to be that useful. 

Until he got to LA, then it went back up 3.2 mph.

[chw42]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well first of all, the Dodgers are actually in somewhat better shape than we'd think. I will admit this is a little complicated as I don't know how $35 million to Bauer gets counted by their luxury tax since he's suspended. If I avoid counting Bauer and assume they drop Bellinger, they have something like $170 million on the books for the rest of their arbitration guys and filling out a roster. That's comparable to where the White Sox are.

Bauer, of course, takes that to $205 million if he's counted? I don't know how to handle that.

Obviously beyond that, another $20 million will go to keeping Kershaw, and Mookie Betts has a $5 million signing bonus to book somewhere, but that's still what, $230 million including Bauer? Spotrac has their "Bauer included" money in 2022 to be $301 million. They are clearing out good contracts (Turner), but also terrible contracts (Kimbrel), so they absolutely have some serious money to spend, $70 million give or take to get back to this year's payroll, with no reason to think they won't spend beyond that.

Secondly, they absolutely are going to be sitting there wanting bullpen help. So if we want to sell off that player, yes they could take him on.

Third, you can also come up with other teams. The Braves got good performance out of Jansen this year on a 1 year deal, but he's now a free agent. The Yankees could absolutely be in the market for a closer as well, and yes the Phillies could as well.

Finally, I still see no point in trading away Hendriks without trading away other guys. If the White Sox are trading away their closer and going with Graveman, who had an ERA over 5 in the second half, as a closer next year, the White Sox aren't making moves to get better next year. 

I was thinking you could try Lopez as closer. He actually had better peripherals than Hendriks last year. 

[SoxBlanco]

3 hours ago, pcq said:

Replacing Jose with Vaughn is a bit of a downgrade but I can see clearing the old vet with the young cost-controlled guy.  Grifol talking to Grandal leaves me wondering. It seems clear Grandal does not have much left in the tank.

I don’t look at it as a Jose/Vaughn swap. I think of it as replacing Jose and Sheets with Vaughn and whichever outfielder we sign. When you take defense into account, I think it’s a nice swap. And if you think Vaughn will continue to improve at the plate like I do, that makes it even better.