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Your 2023 Off-Season Plan


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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Again, name for me a pitcher in the last several years who has come back from TJS and been fully back to themselves in under 18 months. 

Hey I finally found one! Rafael Montero, had TJS in March of 2018, returned in July of 2019 and was moderately effective for 20 innings after only 16 months.  

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8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Did you forget that Justin Verlander just won the ALCY coming off TJS? 

Justin Verlander's Tommy John Surgery was on September 30, 2020.

Justin Verlander's first competitive innings thrown after that surgery happened in April, 2022.

That is a full 18 months of recovery time. 

Crochet's was the first week of April, 2022. Find me a single pitcher who came back and threw more than 10 effective innings in fewer than 16 months. Go back as far as you need to, I've gone back about 5 years. 

I don't dispute that he can come back strong. I dispute that he is likely to come back strong this year and be a major part of this team. 

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Just now, Tnetennba said:

How much of a unicorn is Verlander though?  How many pitchers in their late 30s even come back from TJS, let alone coming back and winning a Cy Young?

He asked me to name him a pitcher. I did. I know Verlander is a physical freak but he was framing it as an impossibility.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Justin Verlander's Tommy John Surgery was on September 30, 2020.

Justin Verlander's first innings thrown after that surgery happened in April, 2022.

That is a full 18 months of recovery time. 

Crochet's was the first week of April, 2022. Find me a single pitcher who came back and threw more than 10 effective innings in fewer than 16 months. Go back as far as you need to, I've gone back about 5 years. 

I thought he had his surgery in March of 2021 so I stand corrected. 

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17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I thought he had his surgery in March of 2021 so I stand corrected. 

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2024369

Made 1 start in 2020, left with elbow pain. Out a full 18 months.

I do think the White Sox will try to be aggressive with Crochet, but "back in early June" would still be extremely aggressive with him, and I haven't found a pitcher in recent years who has been able to do that successfully without winding back up on the IL. 

The only guy I could find recently who has thrown competitive pitches after 14 months is Glasnow, and he gave everything he had in a playoff outing this year. He was effective in that second outing, but it was 1 3-innign outing at the end of the year, a 5 day layoff, and 1 3.2-inning outing before the Rays' season ended.

Literally everyone else I'm finding either didn't come back until about month 16, or even took longer than that. For Crochet, that would be comparable to appearing in early August. That's more common, Montero did it without getting hurt, Sale did it and then got hurt. Rodon came back in September at about month 16 and then was terrible for a couple outings. Many of the guys who had surgeries in Spring Training tried to come back in the 2nd half of the following year and then wound up pitching like 3 innings before going back on the IL. I'm actually rather surprised how uncommon it is to have a successful comeback in under 18 months, I didn't know that at all until I looked.

Maybe if I go back more than 5 years, when guys weren't pushing their fastballs and offspeed pitches to the same extent they are today, the results will be different, but I don't think you want "Crochet is back but he shouldn't throw more than 95 this season and he should go light on the slider."

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19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2024369

Made 1 start in 2020, left with elbow pain. Out a full 18 months.

I do think the White Sox will try to be aggressive with Crochet, but "back in early June" would still be extremely aggressive with him, and I haven't found a pitcher in recent years who has been able to do that successfully without winding back up on the IL. 

The only guy I could find recently who has thrown competitive pitches after 14 months is Glasnow, and he gave everything he had in a playoff outing this year. He was effective in that second outing, but it was 1 3-innign outing at the end of the year, a 5 day layoff, and 1 3.2-inning outing before the Rays' season ended.

Literally everyone else I'm finding either didn't come back until about month 16, or even took longer than that. For Crochet, that would be comparable to appearing in early August. That's more common, Montero did it without getting hurt, Sale did it and then got hurt. Rodon came back in September at about month 16 and then was terrible for a couple outings. Many of the guys who had surgeries in Spring Training tried to come back in the 2nd half of the following year and then wound up pitching like 3 innings before going back on the IL. I'm actually rather surprised how uncommon it is to have a successful comeback in under 18 months, I didn't know that at all until I looked.

Maybe if I go back more than 5 years, when guys weren't pushing their fastballs and offspeed pitches to the same extent they are today, the results will be different, but I don't think you want "Crochet is back but he shouldn't throw more than 95 this season and he should go light on the slider."

I thought relievers could pull it off in 14 months. Are you sure you're not only looking at starters? 

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I thought relievers could pull it off in 14 months. Are you sure you're not only looking at starters? 

I used the Wikipedia list of Tommy John Surgeries. 

Some people are filtered out because if they had the surgery after June 1, they basically all miss the entire next season. But that also is telling us something, because a 14 month recovery would still let those people come back. 

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I used the Wikipedia list of Tommy John Surgeries. 

Some people are filtered out because if they had the surgery after June 1, they basically all miss the entire next season. But that also is telling us something, because a 14 month recovery would still let those people come back. 

You've got the data, and I know that you know your s%*#, so I'll take your word for it. 18 months puts Crochet back in MLB in August then. Man, he's going to miss most of this season as well. :(

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11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You've got the data, and I know that you know your s%*#, so I'll take your word for it. 18 months puts Crochet back in MLB in August then. Man, he's going to miss most of this season as well. :(

I'm not going to rule out that there is someone who isn't in the list of surgeries here who came back more quickly and was effective,  (weirdly, Crochet and Rodon are not there if anyone out there likes editing Wikipedia articles), but it definitely isn't the majority of pitchers, even the majority of relievers. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_underwent_Tommy_John_surgery

If you can find one who came back more quickly and was effective in recent years, go for it. I can't. 

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24 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I might be of the minority here but I am 100% ok letting Abreu walk, trading Vaughn and rolling with a Sheets/Burger 1B platoon because of the payroll constraints. 

Selling low on Vaughn seems like a bad idea.  Let's give him a full year out of the OF.

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11 minutes ago, wegner said:

Selling low on Vaughn seems like a bad idea.  Let's give him a full year out of the OF.

Everyone knows he's playing out of position. Hahn isn't that dumb and neither is everyone else. He should be valued as a 1B/DH. I'm sure teams have some algorithm where then can assign slightly below average 1B defense and spit out a WAR number. 

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42 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Everyone knows he's playing out of position. Hahn isn't that dumb and neither is everyone else. He should be valued as a 1B/DH. I'm sure teams have some algorithm where then can assign slightly below average 1B defense and spit out a WAR number. 

Well I don't know what algorithms Hahn uses but I shudder at the thought of the return we'd get for AV......hard pass.

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