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Is Gavin Lux Available?


bear_brian
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7 minutes ago, bear_brian said:

Thought I saw somewhere that he might be, and that Mookie Betts would move to second. Not use about that, but the question to the forum is:

 

Would the Dodgers consider trading Lux for Hendriks? Lux is a LHH and would be an excellent addition IMO. Thoughts?

Lux is coming off a 3 WAR season with 4 more years of cheap control. Hendriks is owed $28 million over the next 2 years and is coming off a decent season where he didn't look as elite as he has in the past. 

If a trade like this were to work out, the Sox would either have to eat money or include another prospect with Hendriks. 

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17 minutes ago, bear_brian said:

Thought I saw somewhere that he might be, and that Mookie Betts would move to second. Not use about that, but the question to the forum is:

 

Would the Dodgers consider trading Lux for Hendriks? Lux is a LHH and would be an excellent addition IMO. Thoughts?

Oh god the Dodgers are going to get Judge, aren't they.

I would love me some Lux, though. I don't have trade option thoughts so I'll hang up and listen.

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1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It didn’t seem like Mookie would be moving to 2B full-time. It sounded like he would just see more time there potentially than other years. Plus, Trea Turner is a free agent and Justin Turner has a $16 mill option that probably gets declined (but probably resigns for less) so they still need Lux.

I believe Mookie made that comment in regards to them signing Judge to play RF. 

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4 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I believe Mookie made that comment in regards to them signing Judge to play RF. 

Yeah I saw that too. But in the article that I read, it mentioned that they could still line up both Judge and Betts in the OF at times. Dodgers love moving guys around the field. Platooning an infielder with a guy who plays the OF and then moving another player between the IF and OF isn't new to them.

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1 hour ago, bear_brian said:

Thought I saw somewhere that he might be, and that Mookie Betts would move to second. Not use about that, but the question to the forum is:

 

Would the Dodgers consider trading Lux for Hendriks? Lux is a LHH and would be an excellent addition IMO. Thoughts?

I did a few trades on the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. Each of these got a "Yes" from the simulator.

Lux for:

Hendriks + Kopech
Hendriks + Colas
Hendriks + Crochet
Hendriks + Giolito
Colson Montgomery (Straight up)

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

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51 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I did a few trades on the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. Each of these got a "Yes" from the simulator.

Lux for:

Hendriks + Kopech
Hendriks + Colas
Hendriks + Crochet
Hendriks + Giolito
Colson Montgomery (Straight up)

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

That website is drunk

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26 minutes ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yup.  Hendriks absolutely gets you Lux.  I have no idea why people assume 2/28 is some bad deal for Hendriks. They're wrong.

It will take more than just him and I don't like adding in any of the names mentioned.

If it's Hendriks straight up, I'd do it immediately.

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If Lux was going to start hitting for power, I think it would have happened by now. He's a fine player, but you can find ~100 wRC+ 2nd basemen with a decent glove available for practically nothing. The Sox just declined a reasonable team option for one today.

I just don't really get the Lux appeal. He's fine, but I think his prospect pedigree is still affecting how a lot of people view him.

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2 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

Has Mookie played 2nd?  

Edit: I guess he came up in the minors as a 2B and played 7 games with the Dodgers there each of the past 2 years; Still seems odd to move him from a position where he is one of the very best defensively.  

He came up a 2B, but Boston had Pedroia. 

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3 hours ago, Squirmin' for Yermin said:

Yup.  Hendriks absolutely gets you Lux.  I have no idea why people assume 2/28 is some bad deal for Hendriks. They're wrong.

It's not a bad deal for him, but it doesn't get you a a pre-arb 25 year old 3 fWAR player. 

Under their contracts, if there's no horrible injuries, you're probably talking about:

$20 million over 4 years for 12 fWAR for Lux ($4 million, $7 million, $10 million? Maybe $24 million? instead of $20)

$28 million over 2 years for 4 fWAR for Hendriks. 

Hendriks may be fairly paid or underpaid for his performance, and yes there is a modest premium to being a 9th inning reliever, but even assuming the 25 year old gets no better and the 34 year old gets no worse, Lux is clearly more valuable. 

The Dodgers would just go sign Eflin and or Jansen if that was the trade price here. You might be able to get that kind of premium price if you dealt him at the trade deadline and the reliever market was tight.

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33 minutes ago, kitekrazy said:

So who be the closer for the Sox?

Seems odd to fill a hole by making another one.

Also a potentially really important hole to make.

The White Sox record in 1 run games this year was really, really good. 27-16. Houston, Seattle, San Diego were a tiny bit better, Cleveland was 28-17, so effectively tied for 4th best record in 1 run games. This was the big factor that allowed them to be .500 despite having a negative run differential.

At least in part, this is because the White Sox's back of the bullpen was quite reliable for much of the year. Their bullpen had crappy depth, so if a team got into the White Sox's middle relievers, they gave up a 5 spot or something like that and it didn't end as a close game. But, if they got to the 7th or 8th inning in a tight game and handed it to their top 2 or 3 relievers, they didn't give the game up very often. 

Take that away, have to rely on the nonexistant bullpen depth even more, could have an outsized impact on the results. 

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4 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

It's not a bad deal for him, but it doesn't get you a a pre-arb 25 year old 3 fWAR player. 

Under their contracts, if there's no horrible injuries, you're probably talking about:

$20 million over 4 years for 12 fWAR for Lux ($4 million, $7 million, $10 million? Maybe $24 million? instead of $20)

$28 million over 2 years for 4 fWAR for Hendriks. 

Hendriks may be fairly paid or underpaid for his performance, and yes there is a modest premium to being a 9th inning reliever, but even assuming the 25 year old gets no better and the 34 year old gets no worse, Lux is clearly more valuable. 

The Dodgers would just go sign Eflin and or Jansen if that was the trade price here. You might be able to get that kind of premium price if you dealt him at the trade deadline and the reliever market was tight.

I think there could be an argument had that the Dodgers need premier bullpen arms after what happened to them in the playoffs. They had nobody that was elite. All their relievers were good and that's fine for the regular season, but they collectively choked in the playoffs. Jansen or Efflin does nothing for them. They already have a handful of those types of relievers. Hendriks is a clear upgrade in the 9th inning. 

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