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Mike Clevinger to Sox per Rosenthal


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1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

Huh? Why?

Did you see anyone else predict the real salary of Clevinger besides me .You told me it was $8M which means you misread the quote from Morosi.

Someone asked me if I thought Cueto or Clevinger would get a larger salary. I said Clevinger just because of the age difference, while many said it'll be roughly the same or equal.  I believe that's when you told me Clevinger was getting $8M.

We found out later it was $12M just as I said (over $10M). That part of the equation has yet to unfold but I'm pretty (70%) confident Cueto isn't getting $12M.

I also thought the Sox should've re-signed Rodon and that he wasn't injured just tired. How many here said " trust the Sox they know his medicals better than anyone" while I said he had improved his mechanics and had a much better chance of staying injury free.

I also said Vaughn was a terrible OF and didn't have the speed for it no matter what the numbers said his 1st year.

The Vaughn and Rodon opinions were not very popular at the time. I had some entertaining run-ins with many.

I also predicted the Lynn for Dunning trade and also nailed the numbers Abreu would put up his rookie season so closely that I remember someone saying, although they didn't mention me by name, that some people were just too close to his actual numbers and probably edited their post.  I do often edit my posts . You can see I do it often but it's not to omit anything I said that was wrong. I just make a lot of typos and have a bad habit of not proofreading until after I click submit post or just think of more to say.

I mean we're always posting twitter guys and I'm way better at reading the tea leaves than any of them while also having a mind of my own to know the direction this team needs to take without any insider or scouting knowledge. I also don't kiss Hahn's ass like White Sox Dave.

Oh one more thing I predicted the failure of the rebuild maybe 2 years ago. I'll have to dig up that post one of these days if I can find it. No idea which thread it might be in. Never trusted Hahn , KW and especially JR to finish it off.

I just saw someone ask if the Sox would end up with one of Benintendi, Conforto, Nimmo and someone else although Bellinger probably should've been added to the list to make it 5 guys.  The majority of people who answered said yes. While it is possible if the Sox free up some money , I'll say its highly improbable if we believe Fegan telling us what the budget is which is when I decided that younger players had to be found for depth and put my faith in Colas and Outman. I don't believe the Sox will get Outman any more than I think they will get any of the other guys but that's the direction I'm going.

You can wait around and hold me to my opinions just like I'm sure many were waiting for Rodon to be injured.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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9 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Did you see anyone else predict the real salary of Clevinger besides me.

Not that it matters, but I literally predicted he’d get a 1/$12M deal in my off-season.  But again, who cares?  We’re all a bunch of hardcore baseball fans with differing opinions, sometimes right and sometimes wrong.  No one needs to go on bragging about how big their internet penis is by citing all the times they’ve been right.  You’re a great poster, just stay true to yourself even if people don’t always agree with you.  The place wouldn’t be fun if we all thought the same thing.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Not that it matters, but I literally predicted he’d get a 1/$12M deal in my off-season.  But again, who cares?  We’re all a bunch of hardcore baseball fans with differing opinions, sometimes right and sometimes wrong.  No one needs to go on bragging about how big their internet penis is by citing all the times they’ve been right.  You’re a great poster, just stay true to yourself even if people don’t always agree with you.  The place wouldn’t be fun if we all thought the same thing.

I'm a hopeful guy and often hope I'm wrong. But the results of how JR has operated gives us a reality check . I'd love to sit and dream that Bellinger, Gallo etc could come back to being a 3+ WAR guy but that's what sucks about the whole situation. Reduced to hoping we sign retreads and catch lightning in a bottle which won't even matter if the guys already here can't stay healthy or have rebound seasons.

I'm guessing Abreu got disillusioned just like we are. Good for him for going to a team that wants to win . He's heard enough BS to say I've got to get out of here.

I've got no patience for guys who can't even read a tweet properly or question if the guys I've been suggesting are out of options so It might not even help the farm or depth if we have to keep them in the majors. Why bother arguing with me when you can check that stuff yourself instead of forcing me to make you look foolish ? Why bother hyping Vaughn's fielding in 2021 when using defensive stats in small samples can be extremely misleading. Anyone with eyes could have seen what came from him defensively in 2022.

It's like when you got a bit insulted when I suggested Bellingers 2022 numbers were like Billy Hamilton's 2021 numbers (BA,OBP, Slg. OPS) but I then showed you how similar they were even though Hamilton had way less AB's so Bellinger accrued a higher WAR and wRC+ just through volume.

How the Dodgers gave him so many AB's performing like he did is a mystery. Who would have guessed that Trayce Thompson would have a better year than Bellinger in half the AB's in 2022 ?

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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23 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Could it be he didn't pass the physical ? They do the physical after signing or before ?

My thought was that the delay is around the physical.  It does seem odd we haven't heard anything about it since.  I hope he didn't fail the physical, but it certainly seems possible.

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36 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

My thought was that the delay is around the physical.  It does seem odd we haven't heard anything about it since.  I hope he didn't fail the physical, but it certainly seems possible.

No one has ever had any sustained success after a second tommy john surgery, that I am aware of. Such a Sox move here. Obviously if he can return to form it’s a great add, but I would have rather gambled on Cueto sustaining his success. He’s exactly the sort of guy to be effective at the later stage of his career. I suspect the Sox will continue to use resources to bolster the staff in light of the fact the rotation has so many unreliable arms at this point, and go budget on the other side of the ball. Hahn probably still believes his core player acquisitions are capable of carrying an offense and that last year was an aberration. 

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6 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

No one has ever had any sustained success after a second tommy john surgery, that I am aware of. Such a Sox move here. Obviously if he can return to form it’s a great add, but I would have rather gambled on Cueto sustaining his success. He’s exactly the sort of guy to be effective at the later stage of his career. I suspect the Sox will continue to use resources to bolster the staff in light of the fact the rotation has so many unreliable arms at this point, and go budget on the other side of the ball. Hahn probably still believes his core player acquisitions are capable of carrying an offense and that last year was an aberration. 

How sustained do you mean by sustained ? Daniel Hudson, Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon are guys who have done it.  It's a tricky situation. If most of those guys were not very successful before the surgery or too old after the 2nd surgery for it to help them much, there's not enough of a sample of guys who could have a good shot at being good again after the 2nd one. . It helps that he'll be 32 in 3 weeks and not past his prime as a pitcher age-wise.

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11 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

No one has ever had any sustained success after a second tommy john surgery, that I am aware of. Such a Sox move here. Obviously if he can return to form it’s a great add, but I would have rather gambled on Cueto sustaining his success. He’s exactly the sort of guy to be effective at the later stage of his career. I suspect the Sox will continue to use resources to bolster the staff in light of the fact the rotation has so many unreliable arms at this point, and go budget on the other side of the ball. Hahn probably still believes his core player acquisitions are capable of carrying an offense and that last year was an aberration. 

I love Cueto but some of you dudes need to understand the reality.

He had an incredible year last year (caught lightening in a bottle).  He is a year older and practicality tells you that he will not have another year like last.  I would rather gamble on a guy like Clevenger, who is 5 years younger and has potentially a higher upside.  

Again, nothing says this works out but it is the right decision.  

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6 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Can you name one pitcher who was successful coming back from a second TJS? I can’t think of any. Plenty of pitchers are successful at age 37, on the other hand.

 Daniel Hudson, Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon like Cali said.

Jason Isringhausen came back after a third Tommy John.

Old friend Joakim Soria.

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10 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Can you name one pitcher who was successful coming back from a second TJS? I can’t think of any. Plenty of pitchers are successful at age 37, on the other hand.

Cueto was literally awful since 2016. The Sox got incredibly lucky with him. Betting on him to repeat that success is insanely stupid. If we could sign him on the cheap, ya sure. But he’s probably going to get at least $7-10M, and rightfully so - he earned it. But adding him now is not in the budget and would have been an awful gamble. I’d much rather bet on Clevinger for 23 than Johnny.

Edited by ChiSox59
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Ok so there are a few cases. According to NYT article, Walker Buehler is now the 70th pitcher to undergo two. Considering there are 4-5 of those who pitched effectively after, I’d still say Cueto is a much better bet. The odds of Clevinger breaking down are clearly very high, particularly considering his year end spiral. Considering the Sox lack of pitching depth beyond the current starting five, it’s a very questionable move

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5 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Ok so there are a few cases. According to NYT article, Walker Buehler is now the 70th pitcher to undergo two. Considering there are 4-5 of those who pitched effectively after, I’d still say Cueto is a much better bet. The odds of Clevinger breaking down are clearly very high, particularly considering his year end spiral. Considering the Sox lack of pitching depth beyond the current starting five, it’s a very questionable move

"Very questionable" is too harsh here. 

If the White Sox were actually serious about contending and were in a big city like Philadelphia, the right answer would be to be in play for Rodon or Verlander as they actually are guys who could put the White Sox over the top with a strong rotation. 

But when it comes down to Cueto vs. Clevinger, it's really close. Both have had a series of injury issues, Cueto's 2022 was his first 150 inning outing since 2016. Clevinger, as you note, has had 2 TJS. However, Clevinger's surgery was now 24 months ago, and guys do tend to recover from that surgery more when they get a full offseason workout. Whatever full strength is for him, he's probably at it next year. Cueto, having thrown 158 innings last year and clearly tired out at the end of the year, has a decent chance of coming back stronger next year, and his current pitching approach might be one that is sustainable for several more years since he's not trying to blow anyone away any more.

If you were putting odds on which might have a better season, it might be 50-50, it might be 60/40, but this isn't an open and shut case either way. If they were the same age you'd say Cueto since he had a better year and threw more innings last year, but Cueto will also be 37 next year. 

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9 minutes ago, FourEyesShottenhoffer said:

Isringhausen only lasted eight innings after his 2nd before he needed his third.

 

ok, I concede it is possible. Just very unlikely

Then after the third he pitched 92.1 innings with a 4.09 ERA at age 38-39. Which is pretty good.

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