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Liam Hendriks coming up in trade discussions


Sleepy Harold
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Just trade everyone.  At this point, given the signals this franchise and FO have fed us since the TLR hire, just fucking blow it up and let us enjoy our summer without wasting time on this joke of a franchise.  The TIME, the MONEY, and the EMOTIONAL CAPITAL hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people have spent on this piece of s%*# franchise is enough. They don't care one bit about us or winning.  

It's 2022.  We've yet to sign a player to a $100M+ contract.  In what world is any team serious about competing have that lil' tidbit on their resume?  f*** JR.  

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Liam's contract is basically exactly market, it's difficult to imagine someone giving up decent controllable talent for a 34 year old closer with an elbow hanging by a thread signed to a market deal.  Unless they're absolutely desperate for a closer I suppose. 

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Just now, JoeCredeYes said:

Liam's contract is basically exactly market, it's difficult to imagine someone giving up decent controllable talent for a 34 year old closer with an elbow hanging by a thread signed to a market deal.  Unless they're absolutely desperate for a closer I suppose. 

It’s not tho. Some scrub reliever just got 2/$14M from LA. Diaz, the closest comp to Liam, got 5/$102. 

Liam would smash 2/$29M if he was a FA.  At least 4/$65M range. He should have plenty of surplus value. 

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It's interesting to me how many people are clamoring for Lux, when a lot of those same posters typically are the ones who don't like the empty batting average profile. There's nothing in Lux's batted ball profile (or results post juiced ball) to suggest he's capable of even league average power.

I don't mean that as a dig at all, it just seems like his prospect pedigree is doing some of the lifting for how people view him.

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It’s not tho. Some scrub reliever just got 2/$14M from LA. Diaz, the closest comp to Liam, got 5/$102. 

Liam would smash 2/$29M if he was a FA.  At least 4/$65M range. He should have plenty of surplus value. 

It is worth noting that Hendriks was a 1.6 WAR reliever last year and is projected at 1.9. Diaz was a 3 WAR reliever last year. If they each matched their previous seasons (and both stayed healthy), Diaz would be cheaper per WAR.

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2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

It’s not tho. Some scrub reliever just got 2/$14M from LA. Diaz, the closest comp to Liam, got 5/$102. 

Liam would smash 2/$29M if he was a FA.  At least 4/$65M range. He should have plenty of surplus value. 

Only 2 guys in the league with a higher AAV at the position, 1 being Diaz, who is younger and better than Liam.  There's very little if any surplus value in my humble opinion. 

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1 minute ago, JoeCredeYes said:

Only 2 guys in the league with a higher AAV at the position, 1 being Diaz, who is younger and better than Liam.  There's very little if any surplus value in my humble opinion. 

Less about surplus value in this case and more about getting a dominant closer.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

It is worth noting that Hendriks was a 1.6 WAR reliever last year and is projected at 1.9. Diaz was a 3 WAR reliever last year. If they each matched their previous seasons (and both stayed healthy), Diaz would be cheaper per WAR.

Diaz is better and younger. That’s why I projected he’d get 63% of what Diaz got. But the fact that there are no premium relievers on that FA market AND Liam’s contract is extremely reasonable, he should have a good bit of value. I wouldn’t trade him myself, but the value should be there. 

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2 minutes ago, fathom said:

Less about surplus value in this case and more about getting a dominant closer.

Agreed, just limits the teams that will be in on him.  Some Twitter comments out there about attaching Liam to Yaz to dump his salary, now fully convinced that is the FO plan to make room for Salvy Perez's shitty deal. 

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Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Diaz is better and younger. That’s why I projected he’d get 63% of what Diaz got. But the fact that there are no premium relievers on that FA market AND Liam’s contract is extremely reasonable, he should have a good bit of value. I wouldn’t trade him myself, but the value should be there. 

It depends on what “a good bit of value” means to you. I don’t think a competitive team is giving you one of their controlled starters or position players for example. I do believe you could get a good quality prospect return for that reason though.

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Just now, JoeCredeYes said:

Agreed, just limits the teams that will be in on him.  Some Twitter comments out there about attaching Liam to Yaz to dump his salary, now fully convinced that is the FO plan to make room for Salvy's Perez's shitty deal. 

I could definitely see this as something the Dodgers would consider as a way to upgrade their bullpen without giving up any players.

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49 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

We are now out of the "Rebuild Era" and back into the "Mark Teahen is our offseason acquisition Era"

Lol for real.  Well said.  
 

Signing Melky and Drob on the same day might be coming too.  2-3 B-level guys that waste 25-40M.  Clevinger, check.  Next:

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20 minutes ago, JoeCredeYes said:

Liam's contract is basically exactly market, it's difficult to imagine someone giving up decent controllable talent for a 34 year old closer with an elbow hanging by a thread signed to a market deal.  Unless they're absolutely desperate for a closer I suppose. 

If he was a free agent, he could get more than he has left, and teams would have no problem losing the draft pick.

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1 minute ago, almagest said:

Gleyber Torres was a hell of a lot better last year than I thought. He's only 25 and isn't a FA until 2025. I'd for sure do this deal (especially if it adds Conforto or Nimmo), but why would the Yankees make this trade?

Clevinger is the highest profile FA the Sox will sign this off-season. 

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8 minutes ago, almagest said:

Gleyber Torres was a hell of a lot better last year than I thought. He's only 25 and isn't a FA until 2025. I'd for sure do this deal (especially if it adds Conforto or Nimmo), but why would the Yankees make this trade?

Sox want lefty bats outside of catching is what I’ve heard 

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2 minutes ago, HOFHurt35 said:

I really don't trust Hahn and Co scouting and trading for young players. Nor is there player development in place to finish those young pieces.

I can't believe Hahn was allowed to keep this job in the first place.

He did make great trades for Sale, Q, and Eaton. But I do agree he has proven he shouldn’t be a MLB GM.

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38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I’ve said this almost every time this came up: Liam Hendriks was way more important to the 2022 White Sox than you thought.

Starting in April with that losing streak, this team had a negative run differential. They outperformed their expected record base on one factor alone - their record in close games.

I kept watching that the whole year and expecting it to correct and it never did. The White Sox finished tied with Cleveland for the 4th best record in baseball in 1-run games. Had they been a .500 team in 1-run games, they finish 6 or 8 games below .500 and in third place.

Minnesota, for comparison, had a losing record in 1 run games and finished behind the White Sox despite a better run differential.

Furthermore, the White Sox’s bullpen wasn’t special overall. They were 8th in bullpen WAR, 12th in ERA. Their bullpen was one that had no depth. If you got to the Sox’s middle relief, you often scored 3 or 4 runs. Expensive middle relievers couldn’t be counted on. But if you got to the 8th inning and the game was tight; the Sox would go to Graveman in the first half and Lopez in the second half and shut this game down. 

If you took Hendriks out of the 2022 White Sox and replaced him with a 5 win outfielder, I think that team still finishes at .500. The run differential evens out, but the record in close games drops to .500, and the end result is no gain. If you replaced Hendriks with Benintendi, I think the team is actually a couple games worse.

Having seen how much they struggled in the 8th inning in 2021 (so much so that it led to the Kimbrel deal) and seeing how bad the middle relief was in 2022, I think this is the type of mistake that has an outsized impact. Not only do we drop more close games than we make up for with an OF, we also undermine any good emotions from the new coaching staff with losses in the 8th and 9th inning that are especially deflating emotionally.

If you’re selling Hendriks, sell Giolito and Cease. You’ve already given up.

100% agree.

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