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2023-24 NFL Season Thread


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5 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

Penix Jr. looks outstanding tonight. I love watching this kid play. He could end up being a real steal for some team. 

The only place to ding him is throwing on the run...and he's actually pretty elusive, but definitely won't run unless he has no other choice.   Nix is getting picked right in front of him in mocks, but that will definitely change with a NC.

Seahawks are probably going to move on from Smith.

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I love how much game experience this QB class has. 
 

Im actually totally game for taking a QB with the second pick. To me that plays into the advantage of having two firsts, while acknowledging the difficulties of knowing which qb is best. Getting MHJ is enough of a win to boost this team, and I think a Penix/McCarthy are guys that can handle sitting.

Fun fact Fields is only a year older than Penix.

Cam Ward also announced he’s going pro. He’d be a great sit and develop guy too. He’s huge, reminds me of Balt having Snoop Huntley behind Fields. But could run a lot of the same running offense. Also…put this guy out there for your sneaks.

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https://www.dabearsblog.com/2024/the-bears-should-move-on-from-justin-fields
 

There is a group of “data focused” bears bloggers. In general, when doing descriptive analytics on what’s happening they do a good job. Part of that is there is a good amount of data (each play as a data point).

The second half of the article veers into something that annoys the hell out of me. And that’s the illusion of looking how previous drafts performed and acting like you now have a data informed prediction.

So he is looking at what this draft means for the bears by looking at previous 1-2 QB drafts. So that gives him…9 examples over 50 years.

That’s just really not anything to inform you. And a hard part about fields is while there are few examples of QBs breaking out in year four, there isn’t that many QBs in a relevant era to rule it out.

Basically, stop showing me examples of like 8 data points and then being like “35% of that need up as pro bowlers” and acting like that is meaningful information.

Live in the unknown of the draft. It is exciting and infuriating and it will consistently change your perceptions.

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2 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Penix has tore the same ACL in the same knee twice... that's a risk in itself.

What are the odds he does it 3 though! Gotta be like getting hit by lightning.

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9 hours ago, bmags said:

What are the odds he does it 3 though! Gotta be like getting hit by lightning.

All depends if they changed his mechanics, if they were non-contact injuries. 

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13 hours ago, CentralChamps21 said:

Did one of those draft simulators and got this. I'm skeptical that the Bears could actually get all this, though.

bearsdraft.jpg

Which one are you using? I had one I used to use but now you have to pay for it. Not sure how much though.

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Hey guys..just curious and I’m sure this has been answered but it’s a lot to go back through. What if the consensus on here for the first pick?

Trade Fields and take Williams or do you want to trade down, keep Fields and make sure you get Harrison Jr?

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If Williams has strong intangibles (that is what I don’t know), than I still think I lean toward Williams. But I am also fine with a trade down. What I don’t want is drafting Marvin at 1. Taking a wideout at 1, no matter how good they might be is stupid in my mind. 

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Just now, Chisoxfn said:

If Williams has strong intangibles (that is what I don’t know), than I still think I lean toward Williams. But I am also fine with a trade down. What I don’t want is drafting Marvin at 1. Taking a wideout at 1, no matter how good they might be is stupid in my mind. 

But moving down 2 spots and getting future 1st and than taking Marvin and seeing how Fields does with more weapons is fine with me. 

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I am definitely in favor of trade down for a haul.  We have too many gaps still, I'm fine with one more year of Fields to see, get an additional first for next year to be able to trade up for your guy if it doesn't work out.  Or get a 2nd-3rd round QB if there's someone you love that isn't the traditional top 5 pick.  But let's go get a generational WR, let's get EDGE/DT help, let's get a longterm OC, etc.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Hey guys..just curious and I’m sure this has been answered but it’s a lot to go back through. What if the consensus on here for the first pick?

Trade Fields and take Williams or do you want to trade down, keep Fields and make sure you get Harrison Jr?

A good QB is so important and getting the best guy (Williams or Maye) in a pretty good draft year for QBs is a no-brainer to me. Fields has barely improved as a passer this year and that's with a top 10 WR, a good TE and a better o-line. He's consistently in the 20s for every major QB stat and that's not good enough, especially given how much time he misses due to injuries and that the Bears need to pick up his 5th year option before next season starts.

I also think people are dreaming of a big trade down haul that just isn't happening. These trades just don't happen very often, for one, and in a QB class last year without many options beyond the top 2 you got one first round pick and DJ Moore (likely valued as a 2nd with maybe a later round pick attached) by trading down nine spots. I think the hauls most people expect would come from trading to 10+, where I don't think the Bears want to be - the best QBs and WRs will be well off the board by then, and you just don't get the same level of impact from the guys in that part of the draft.

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Just now, almagest said:

A good QB is so important and getting the best guy (Williams or Maye) in a pretty good draft year for QBs is a no-brainer to me. Fields has barely improved as a passer this year and that's with a top 10 WR, a good TE and a better o-line. He's consistently in the 20s for every major QB stat and that's not good enough, especially given how much time he misses due to injuries and that the Bears need to pick up his 5th year option before next season starts.

I also think people are dreaming of a big trade down haul that just isn't happening. These trades just don't happen very often, for one, and in a QB class last year without many options beyond the top 2 you got one first round pick and DJ Moore (likely valued as a 2nd with maybe a later round pick attached) by trading down nine spots. I think the hauls most people expect would come from trading to 10+, where I don't think the Bears want to be - the best QBs and WRs will be well off the board by then, and you just don't get the same level of impact from the guys in that part of the draft.

You would get a huge haul if you traded down…no doubt about it.

That said, I think you take Williams, trade Fields and take the best WR left with the other pick.

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