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Sox vs BoSox Game Thread 6-1-11


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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 06:39 PM)
Historically he's a worse hitter with runners on. Why? Because quite frankly in high leverage situations he's just not very good (cause he has a majorly flawed swing and he's going to struggle even more when pitcher X is more focused due to the situation, e.g., runners on).

 

Dunn is the definition of a mistake hitter. Dude has made his career hitting jacks in low leverage situations against mediocre pitching. Put him up against good pitching and he'll get PWNED (as do many players, but he'll get PWNED more due to the huge flaw in his game).

 

I remember for years you hated him. I thought he'd put up big numbers here but infuriate us with his inability to get clutch hits. I remember when we faced him on the Nationals, I liked him up with Thornton on the mound in a clutch situation cause he was such an easy out.

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QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 06:42 PM)
This is so troubling in so many different ways I can't even begin to talk about it. I don't know if there is any explanation do you? Does anyone?

 

That he's hit the wall with regards to bat speed, and his numbers the last few months last year were a telling sign?

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 02:39 PM)
Dunn is the definition of a mistake hitter. Dude has made his career hitting jacks in low leverage situations against mediocre pitching. Put him up against good pitching and he'll get PWNED (as do many players, but he'll get PWNED more due to the huge flaw in his game).

Except his career splits flat out disagree with this assessment.

 

High leverage: .916 OPS

Med Leverage: .891

Low Leverage: .885

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 01:43 PM)
That he's hit the wall with regards to bat speed, and his numbers the last few months last year were a telling sign?

Don't forget that a MLB gm and countless other people talked about how lazy he is and has no passion for the game. It really is a perfect storm of a player slowing down and not having the work ethic to compensate for what he has lost.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 1, 2011 -> 11:42 AM)
I remember for years you hated him. I thought he'd put up big numbers here but infuriate us with his inability to get clutch hits. I remember when we faced him on the Nationals, I liked him up with Thornton on the mound in a clutch situation cause he was such an easy out.

Thats the thing. I've always said I prefer average to OBP. I don't ignore OBP, but at the end of the day, to win a game, you need to generate the key hit (or sacy fly, etc) to win the game potentially. And a guy that can't hit is going to have a hell of a time doing that in those high leverage situations (where you are facing a tough pitcher, etc). Its tough enough for a good hitter, but you put a bad hitter in that sitaution and the problem is magnified and statistically that is just something a lot of the current statistic approaches ignore.

 

Hell, it is what made a guy like Jeter so freaking solid. For most of his career, in those high leverage situations, he knew how to make the appropriate adjustments in his swing to deliver clutch hits against good players. And while AVG with RISP can be a flawed stat due to sample size, those high leverage stats over large sample plans are valid, imo.

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