Slumps and Adam Dunn: they've met before

[Steve9347]

Adam Dunn is probably Kenny Williams' least favorite person in the world. The ultra-dependable, most consistent hitter in the big leagues, who has done it in every location in which he's played (Cincinnati, Arizona, Washington) just straight up s***s the bed for no reason. It makes zero sense.

[Buehrlesque]

If Adam Dunn hit .280 for the rest of the year and averaged 6 homers a month from here until the end of the season, his line ends up somewhere along the lines of .240/.380/.470/.850 with about 30 homers. His 162 game average is .248/.379/.515/.893 and 39 homers. He hit .288 in the first half of last season - 88 games - and he was at .281 in game 98 of last year, so there is some ability to hit for average there, even if it takes a bit of luck.

 

Also, during the only point in his career where the team he was on was contending whatsoever, 2008 with the Diamondbacks, he put up .243/.417/.472/.889 during part of August and September and was on about a 32 homer pace. He's hit well when his team has been in it before.

 

Again, I am not worried about him at all.

At all? Wow, you have some serious faith in stats there wite. I am a stats guy, and I like and agree overall with you initial, well thought out analysis. But I think we have to use our eyes a little in the analysis of Dunn. It's likely he'll turn things around in the second half (whether or not the Sox are seriously in the race by that point notwithstanding), but it won't just be a case of stats and luck normalizing. It will take a serious physical and mental adjustment, because his stance, swing and head are so out of whack right now.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Adam's K% is now at an astounding 42.4%. It just keeps rising. Couple weeks ago it was around 39.5%. Then it shot up over 41.0%. Now it's over 42.0%. I know Mark Reynolds % was around that when he set the K record. But he hit 44 HRs that year. Big difference.

 

Edit: Nevermind. Reynolds set the record last year.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Jordan4life

[GoSox05]

I get excited when Dunn even hits a ball foul. A deep fly into the OF once in a while would even be cool.

[witesoxfan]

At all? Wow, you have some serious faith in stats there wite. I am a stats guy, and I like and agree overall with you initial, well thought out analysis. But I think we have to use our eyes a little in the analysis of Dunn. It's likely he'll turn things around in the second half (whether or not the Sox are seriously in the race by that point notwithstanding), but it won't just be a case of stats and luck normalizing. It will take a serious physical and mental adjustment, because his stance, swing and head are so out of whack right now.

 

Of course there is work to be done to get Dunn back to his career norms. Baseball isn't a game of random luck where you can just ride the storm out and a player will start producing. These plays have to constantly make mechanical adjustments to correct flaws in their games.

 

6400 plate appearances tells me that Dunn can make those adjustments and that it's a matter of time.

[greg775]

I don't like his batting stance either, the way he moves the bat way back and bends it for a moment, before flailing at a low curve or slider or change.

I'm surprised he gets as many walks as he does with that approach, but he does walk.

 

At this point, I'd settle for singles from the guy. Get a lighter bat and change your game, Adam.

You ain't a long ball threat anymore. Just try to hit the ball.

 

Edited June 6, 2011 by greg775

[Steve9347]

At this point, I'd settle for singles from the guy. Get a lighter bat and change your game, Adam.

You ain't a long ball threat anymore. Just try to hit the ball.

greg775 ups the ante of silly with every post.

[Buehrlesque]

Of course there is work to be done to get Dunn back to his career norms. Baseball isn't a game of random luck where you can just ride the storm out and a player will start producing. These plays have to constantly make mechanical adjustments to correct flaws in their games.

 

6400 plate appearances tells me that Dunn can make those adjustments and that it's a matter of time.

I hope you're right. The only issues I have with your initial post are

 

a.) all 5 of the slumps you mentioned occurred in August and later, when he had solid first half production. Might this say more about his general production in Aug/Sept than a general, time-neutral slump? Looking at his career splits, his career BA, SLG and OPS are are lower in Aug and Sept than any other month. Also, even during those specific slumps he never had a K% of 42% (I checked).

 

b.) Also, the fact the Sox may be out of the race by the time Dunn turns it around is reason enough to worry. It'll be great when he starts to hit, but it might not have much effect on the season if he's tearing it up in relatively meaningless Aug/Sept games.

 

Also, out of curiosity, I understand you're not worried now, but at what length of time of similar production would you become worried? 300 at bats? 400? 500? Not a sarcastic question, just wondering what's your threshold?

Edited June 6, 2011 by Buehrlesque

[greg775]

greg775 ups the ante of silly with every post.

 

Why would u say that? You like seeing that big lug strike out 40 percent of the time?

Just hit the f***ing ball.

[southsider2k5]

Why would u say that? You like seeing that big lug strike out 40 percent of the time?

Just hit the f***ing ball.

 

Oh so that is what he is doing wrong. If only Greg Walker had told him that already.

[Dick Allen]

Of course there is work to be done to get Dunn back to his career norms. Baseball isn't a game of random luck where you can just ride the storm out and a player will start producing. These plays have to constantly make mechanical adjustments to correct flaws in their games.

 

6400 plate appearances tells me that Dunn can make those adjustments and that it's a matter of time.

We can hope its just a matter of time, but since the All Star break last season, Dunn has 424 ABs with 21 homers 67 RBI, 73 walks, 170 Ks and a .203 average. At some point its not just a slump anymore. Its pretty scary he's at the point he's at over 60 games into the season.

[Jordan4life_2007]

He's somehow, someway gotten worse since this thread was created.

[Bubba Philips]

We can hope its just a matter of time, but since the All Star break last season, Dunn has 424 ABs with 21 homers 67 RBI, 73 walks, 170 Ks and a .203 average. At some point its not just a slump anymore. Its pretty scary he's at the point he's at over 60 games into the season.

Dunn has a unique talent he can swing and suck at the same time....

[greg775]

Serious question ... are people wearing their Dunn jerseys they bought last winter to the ballpark?

THat has to be humbling.

[gosox41]

Adam Dunn is currently at .180/.329/.326/.654. That is an OBP higher than a slugging percentage. That is a damn near statistical anomaly in itself. He has played in 50 games, which is just less than 1/3 of a full major league season. All hope is lost for him doing anything for the next 2/3.

 

Though, of course, it's not. With a player who has the "consistency" of Adam Dunn (only month in his career with an OPS below .872 is September/October, when he's at .771, but I blame that mostly on him having no motivation considering he's played on a losing team for so long), he has slumped like this before.

 

Dating back to his first full year in the league...

 

2002 - Aug 2 to Sept 29 - 54 G, 49 GS - .171/.302/.283/.585

2003 - Jul 9 to Aug 15 - 33 G, 32 GS - .214/.350/.321/.672

2004 - Aug 17 to Sept 24 - 35 G, 34 GS - .198/.336/.421/.757

2006 - Aug 2 to Oct 1 - 55 G, 54 GS - .174/.308/.332/.639

2009 - Aug 24 to Oct 4 - 36 G, 35 GS - .198/.318/.341/.659

 

There was also a stretch, in either 2007 or 2008, where he put up a line of something like .200/.350/.450 over a 50-60 game stretch where he hit 15 homers, but I figured people would get on my case because he ran into 10 more balls instead of missing them. His BABIP was still garbage.

 

Yeah, nitpick if you want to - HE'S ONLY DONE THIS ONCE IN THE LAST 5 YEARS AND 3 OF THOSE ARE FEWER THAN 40 GAMES - they are still month long sustained slumps and, believe it or not, Adam Dunn worked his way out of those.

 

Not gonna do anything without some sabermetric help either. Adam Dunn, throughout his career, has a career BABIP of .295 and a HR/FB of 21.9%. Considering he's put those up over a period of almost 6300 PAs, I'd say those are sustainable rates. Currently, he's at .265 and 9.6%. The BABIP may not come up - there's history to indicate that he can stay below that - but that HR/FB is going to come up.

 

So he [probably] won't hit 40 homers. No biggie. The worst OPS he put up, other than that crappy 2003 (where he ended up with an .819 OPS, shoot me in the face that's so bad) were .854 in 2002 and .855 in 2006. Otherwise, he's been at or above .890.

 

The premise of the post is that Adam Dunn is going to turn it around. Anybody who is seriously worried about him is fooling themselves. All Ozzie can do is keep doing what he's doing.

 

Hopefully Adam and his slump break up soon and it was just a spring fling.

 

Seriously, this is getting ridiculous.

 

To paraphrase Harvey Kitel in Pulp Fiction---"Pretty Please with sugar on top---hit the freaking baseball."

 

 

Bob

[greg775]

All lefties, including Dunn, should copy the stance/stroke of KC's Hosmer.

Wow, the rookie can hit the ball. He has perfect form.

[Jordan4life_2007]

All lefties, including Dunn, should copy the stance/stroke of KC's Hosmer.

Wow, the rookie can hit the ball. He has perfect form.

 

I fully expect Hosmer to win the ROY. Only Pineda has a shot.

[witesoxfan]

I hope you're right. The only issues I have with your initial post are

 

a.) all 5 of the slumps you mentioned occurred in August and later, when he had solid first half production. Might this say more about his general production in Aug/Sept than a general, time-neutral slump? Looking at his career splits, his career BA, SLG and OPS are are lower in Aug and Sept than any other month. Also, even during those specific slumps he never had a K% of 42% (I checked).

 

b.) Also, the fact the Sox may be out of the race by the time Dunn turns it around is reason enough to worry. It'll be great when he starts to hit, but it might not have much effect on the season if he's tearing it up in relatively meaningless Aug/Sept games.

 

Also, out of curiosity, I understand you're not worried now, but at what length of time of similar production would you become worried? 300 at bats? 400? 500? Not a sarcastic question, just wondering what's your threshold?

 

If Adam Dunn does this for the entire season - hits about .180 and 15 homers and a Pierre-ian OPS - then I get worried, because that is about 800 plate appearances dating back to roughly midseason of 2010 that Dunn has been a bad hitter.

 

I mention that I have 6400 plate appearances worth of data to base these assumptions on. I have about 10,000 PAs worth of data that says Frank Thomas is going to be an MVP candidate next year. At some point, a detrimental change in talent can have its effect on a player. I haven't seen anything to indicate that there has been one with Dunn, whereas it is quite clear that it has happened with a now 43 year old Frank Thomas.

[Quin]

Again, Rios Appendix.

 

Put it in Dunn.

[Jordan4life_2007]

If Adam Dunn does this for the entire season - hits about .180 and 15 homers and a Pierre-ian OPS - then I get worried, because that is about 800 plate appearances dating back to roughly midseason of 2010 that Dunn has been a bad hitter.

 

I mention that I have 6400 plate appearances worth of data to base these assumptions on. I have about 10,000 PAs worth of data that says Frank Thomas is going to be an MVP candidate next year. At some point, a detrimental change in talent can have its effect on a player. I haven't seen anything to indicate that there has been one with Dunn, whereas it is quite clear that it has happened with a now 43 year old Frank Thomas.

 

Your optimism is to be commended. But I've never seen Dunn this lost. He's decimating his career K% and that's saying A LOT. I think he might be gone at this point.

[VAfan]

At what point do the Sox just bench Dunn for awhile because they need someone who can hit the ball better -- like Mark Teahan?? LOL. (Check out his numbers, he's no better than Dunn.) The most alarming of Dunn's numbers? He's being outslugged by Juan Pierre (.315 to .309).

 

The Sox don't really have anyone to fill Dunn's shoes, unless we were to promote Dayan Viciedo. Maybe we should bring up the kid and play him for a week instead of Dunn. Another option is to sit Dunn until we resume interleague play when he'll get NL pitching, and if he shows signs then, put him back in. We don't want to bench Konerko, so that means play Dunn during IL games at home, when the DH is in effect.

 

For Rios, my gut tells me that Ozzie should put more pressure on him by having him hit leadoff in place of Juan Pierre.

 

The only good news out of this that I can see is that despite these horrid years from two high-paid players and other assorted woes, the Sox are only 6 games back of Cleveland. I think we can already see, however, that the Tigers are the real threat.

Edited June 7, 2011 by VAfan

[witesoxfan]

Your optimism is to be commended. But I've never seen Dunn this lost. He's decimating his career K% and that's saying A LOT. I think he might be gone at this point.

 

I've thought Konerko was gone a lot before too, and he's turned it around just fine. In fact, this season sort of reminds me a lot of Konerko's 2003 season.

 

There is absolutely something wrong with Dunn right now. Whether that it is mechanical, physical, mental, or even emotional, I'm hoping he is doing everything in his power to keep the team up to date on it to try and get it fixed.

[Jordan4life_2007]

I've thought Konerko was gone a lot before too, and he's turned it around just fine. In fact, this season sort of reminds me a lot of Konerko's 2003 season.

 

There is absolutely something wrong with Dunn right now. Whether that it is mechanical, physical, mental, or even emotional, I'm hoping he is doing everything in his power to keep the team up to date on it to try and get it fixed.

 

When I say "gone" I don't mean for the rest of his career. I mean pretty much for this year. Like Mark McGwire in 1991. It might just be one of those flukish years that one simply can't explain.

[witesoxfan]

When I say "gone" I don't mean for the rest of his career. I mean pretty much for this year. Like Mark McGwire in 1991. It might just be one of those flukish years that one simply can't explain.

 

You hope that a switch just goes on and he becomes the monster he used to be, and that really isn't unprecedented, but it's really just a wait and see game.

 

I don't think people remember how bad Konerko was in the first half of 2003. On June 28th, Paul Konerko's OPS was .525. From July 2nd until the end of the season, Konerko put up an .865 OPS. To cherry pick further, from July 13th to September 7th, he OPS'd 1.050.

 

Dunn is definitely not going to have his typical year, but I'm going to be extremely surprised if he doesn't end up with an OPS of .800. He's had a pretty terrible year, but I would honestly say it's probably only half as bad as the year Konerko was having in 2003 - considering his OPS was more than 100 points less and strong offense was much more prevalent then.

 

He will right the ship. He won't end up with a typical 38 homer, .900 OPS Adam Dunn season, but he will right the ship.

[greg775]

You hope that a switch just goes on and he becomes the monster he used to be, and that really isn't unprecedented, but it's really just a wait and see game.

 

I don't think people remember how bad Konerko was in the first half of 2003. On June 28th, Paul Konerko's OPS was .525. From July 2nd until the end of the season, Konerko put up an .865 OPS. To cherry pick further, from July 13th to September 7th, he OPS'd 1.050.

 

Dunn is definitely not going to have his typical year, but I'm going to be extremely surprised if he doesn't end up with an OPS of .800. He's had a pretty terrible year, but I would honestly say it's probably only half as bad as the year Konerko was having in 2003 - considering his OPS was more than 100 points less and strong offense was much more prevalent then.

 

He will right the ship. He won't end up with a typical 38 homer, .900 OPS Adam Dunn season, but he will right the ship.

 

Man I respect your optimism.

Don't you ever go by the eye test though? Throw out the past numbers?

It's the end of the first week of June and the man is LOST.

He's a DP/K machine.