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Sox land Liriano


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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 08:22 AM)
Trading Floyd defeats the main purpose of getting Liriano which is the much needed resting of Sale/Peavy/Quintana. All might have issues with stamina and as we saw last start with Sale possibly a dead arm period as they adjust to career highs in innings pitched or many innings pitched after an injury with Peavy. Remember we have plans for the post season which means those guys will have to pitch even more.

Trading Floyd would be the start of getting another pitcher not just to move Floyd. If KW has an opportunity to get a pitcher like King Felix or Shields then moving Floyd would give him some payroll room and a prospect or two to use in the trade. I would move Viciedo for Hernandez if I had to. Sox could get another left fielder much easier than a top of the line starter.

 

Sale

Peavy

"King" Felix

Liriano

New Q

Humber to rest those guys

 

Next year

Danks

Sale

New Q

"King" Felix

Peavy or Liriano whoever the Sox can sign

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I'm not a huge fan of this move simply because a 6 man rotation means that instead of 60% of games being started by Sale-Peavy-Quintana the rest of the way, only 50% of the games will be started by Sale-Peavy-Quintana. Liriano is somewhere in the category of Humber and Floyd in terms of reliability. Each of those three can throw great games (how many 1-hitters has Floyd thrown? Humber and Liriano with perfecto/no-no in their histories), but they get blown up regularly, hence their ERAs.

 

HOWEVER, this trade makes sense if: (1) you think one of your current starters is going to go on the DL (cough Sale cough); (2) Sale and Quintana are showing signs of hitting the wall and either Sale or Q will be ineffective without more rest; (3) Humber just drops straight into the bullpen and you are upgrading Humber for Liriano.

 

I tend to think that Humber is likely to be dropped from the rotation unless he pitches well in the next 2 turns around the rotation. But he's been solid two of the last three starts and it's not unreasonable to think that he could be better than Liriano or Floyd or even Q the rest of the way. He certainly has the potential to be good for long stretches (see 2011) and Liriano and Floyd have demonstrated they can be bad for long stretches.

 

2013's rotation should be interesting, assuming Danks is back. Danks-Peavy-Sale-Quintana-Floyd (assuming Q is not a fluke and is really is Buehrle part 2) is a top-5 rotation. Humber would still be under control if they wanted to dump Floyd.

 

Also - somebody mentioned how much more the Tigers paid for Sanchez than the Sox paid for Liriano. A couple of points - Turner is a career 7K/9 pitcher in AA and AAA with a 3+ ERA. He's not the second coming of even Porcello. He's a rotation filler. Have no idea based on raw stats why he was ranked at #22 overall. I guess he's 21 and there is room for improvement, but his stats don't jump off the sheet at you like a Brandon McCarthy's did. His best feature thus far in the minors seems to be avoiding the HR. However, he's thrown 25 innings in the majors and given up 24 runs (23 earned). Small sample size for sure, but I'm not sure why he's ranked as highly as he is.

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He's been sitting on the bench. And he's done a great job coming in ready to hit and hitting the ball hard and not just giving ABs away like Lillibridge did forever. In regular playing time he's going to be solid IMO. He certainly seems like a Gardenhire type of player all the way.

 

No matter how much Liriano has struggled, Terry Ryan isn't going to trade that kind of ability to his biggest rival unless he gets something he likes in return. Since it is impossible for anyone with two eyes to like Pedro Hernandez, it's pretty clear Escobar was the key to this trade. And nobody gives two s***s what Keith Law the desk jockey and his little buddies think about Escobar's future, the trade itself should pretty much show you that the Twins scouts like Escobar, and those are the only people who matter. If all Ryan could have gotten was salary absorption and a bench player out of the deal in a hot pitching market then he certainly could have found a taker outside of the AL Central.

 

This whole idea that all KW is doing is trading bags of balls is ridiculous. Most prospects don't work out, but for example, Zach Stewart was the key to the Scott Rolen deal, and then a key in a deal for Edwin Jackson which itself was key for the Colby Rasmus trade to go through, and then after that he's the key to the Youkilis deal. You have a former highly ranked prospect who had been drafted as a 3rd rounder and had been scouted and then traded for as a key piece by 3 other Major League organizations, all for very good players, but then Human Dunce Cap Lawrence Holmes gets on the radio and blabbers nonsense about how terrible he is and everyone laughs. Same with Escobar. No, actually Escobar is a nice little player and this deal is yet another in a long line that shows the value of defensive SS that teams believe can/will hit enough to stick.

 

Awesome post. You're my new favorite poster.

 

 

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 09:30 AM)
If we are still thinking that the Sox need a grindy utility guy who has been targeted by Kenny in the past, I am sure the Mariners would give us a ton of cash and Chone Figgens for pretty much nothing in return.

Geoff Blum is also a free agent. ;-)

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Shortstops

Jason Bartlett (33) - $5.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout; vests with 432 PAs in 2012

Yuniesky Betancourt (31)

Geoff Blum (39)

Ronny Cedeno (30)

Stephen Drew (30) - $10MM mutual option with a $1.35MM buyout (too expensive to acquire, no place to start unless it's for Beckham)

Alex Gonzalez (35) - vesting option

Cesar Izturis (33) will probably be made available by the Brewers for not much

Jhonny Peralta (31) - $6MM club option with a $500K buyout (no way, although the Tigers should find a better SS for 2013)

Marco Scutaro (37) (just traded to Giants to start at 2B)

Miguel Tejada (39)

Ryan Theriot (33)

Omar Vizquel (46)

Jack Wilson (35)

 

My vote's for Uribe with lots of cash back from the now penthouse residing Dodgers (in terms of future revenues rolling in from tv deal and new owners)

Edited by caulfield12
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Upon further review: classic buy-low Kenny move, and we need to be realistic about expectations for Liriano. 2012 has been a struggle with him but there is no doubt he has the stuff to be very good for us and hopefully Coop and playing meaningful games can motivate him.

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QUOTE (BlackBetsy @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 09:07 AM)
Also - somebody mentioned how much more the Tigers paid for Sanchez than the Sox paid for Liriano. A couple of points - Turner is a career 7K/9 pitcher in AA and AAA with a 3+ ERA. He's not the second coming of even Porcello. He's a rotation filler. Have no idea based on raw stats why he was ranked at #22 overall. I guess he's 21 and there is room for improvement, but his stats don't jump off the sheet at you like a Brandon McCarthy's did. His best feature thus far in the minors seems to be avoiding the HR. However, he's thrown 25 innings in the majors and given up 24 runs (23 earned). Small sample size for sure, but I'm not sure why he's ranked as highly as he is.

You touched on the reason for his high ranking a bit, his age. When you consider his age for the level he was playing at last season, his numbers become more impressive. Almost half of his starts at AA were as a 19-yo. He was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League, yet performing better than average. Since he has much more time where his skill should be improving and he's already shown to be good, BA slotted him high on their top 100.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 12:34 AM)
He's been sitting on the bench. And he's done a great job coming in ready to hit and hitting the ball hard and not just giving ABs away like Lillibridge did forever. In regular playing time he's going to be solid IMO. He certainly seems like a Gardenhire type of player all the way.

 

No matter how much Liriano has struggled, Terry Ryan isn't going to trade that kind of ability to his biggest rival unless he gets something he likes in return. Since it is impossible for anyone with two eyes to like Pedro Hernandez, it's pretty clear Escobar was the key to this trade. And nobody gives two s***s what Keith Law the desk jockey and his little buddies think about Escobar's future, the trade itself should pretty much show you that the Twins scouts like Escobar, and those are the only people who matter. If all Ryan could have gotten was salary absorption and a bench player out of the deal in a hot pitching market then he certainly could have found a taker outside of the AL Central.

 

This whole idea that all KW is doing is trading bags of balls is ridiculous. Most prospects don't work out, but for example, Zach Stewart was the key to the Scott Rolen deal, and then a key in a deal for Edwin Jackson which itself was key for the Colby Rasmus trade to go through, and then after that he's the key to the Youkilis deal. You have a former highly ranked prospect who had been drafted as a 3rd rounder and had been scouted and then traded for as a key piece by 3 other Major League organizations, all for very good players, but then Human Dunce Cap Lawrence Holmes gets on the radio and blabbers nonsense about how terrible he is and everyone laughs. Same with Escobar. No, actually Escobar is a nice little player and this deal is yet another in a long line that shows the value of defensive SS that teams believe can/will hit enough to stick.

 

The Twins scouts haven't been right very much recently. This was a salary dump and Escobar was the tallest midget they were offered. He strikes out more than 1 in 4 AB. Hits .159 against RHP with a .190 slugging pct. He's a back up at best, and the Twins, a last place team playing for nothing, are sending him to AAA. Please stop with the dramatics. He's an easily replaceable piece.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 11:20 AM)
The Twins scouts haven't been right very much recently. This was a salary dump and Escobar was the tallest midget they were offered. He strikes out more than 1 in 4 AB. Hits .159 against RHP with a .190 slugging pct. He's a back up at best, and the Twins, a last place team playing for nothing, are sending him to AAA. Please stop with the dramatics. He's an easily replaceable piece.

Liriano is only owed about $2 million for the remainder of the season. It's not really a salary dump in that they aren't dumping much salary.

 

They're taking a shot on one of these kids being able to help them on the cheap.

 

This move could be worth it in that the Sox escape facing Liriano themselves for one or two times more this season.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 12:20 PM)
The Twins scouts haven't been right very much recently. This was a salary dump and Escobar was the tallest midget they were offered. He strikes out more than 1 in 4 AB. Hits .159 against RHP with a .190 slugging pct. He's a back up at best, and the Twins, a last place team playing for nothing, are sending him to AAA. Please stop with the dramatics. He's an easily replaceable piece.

 

 

Ding! I liked the kid, but as DA mentions filling his spot shouldn't be a major issue. Hernandez was completely expendable. Kenny did quite well (and I've not been a KW fanboy as I thought he got away from just these type of moves and going for the 'moves for moves' sake (Jackson) or just plain dumb ass moves (Swisher)).

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Escobar hasnt shown the power he has and while he has been a decent utility player, he is expendable...Hernandez wasnt in the top 30 of the Sox prospect list so this is an easy deal to make for KW...adding another arm will assure some rest for Sale and Peavy down the stretch...While I would have liked to see Johnson or Grienke, we basically paid little to nothing for Liriano, and Youkilis for that matter!

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 11:20 AM)
The Twins scouts haven't been right very much recently. This was a salary dump and Escobar was the tallest midget they were offered. He strikes out more than 1 in 4 AB. Hits .159 against RHP with a .190 slugging pct. He's a back up at best, and the Twins, a last place team playing for nothing, are sending him to AAA. Please stop with the dramatics. He's an easily replaceable piece.

 

 

Didn't the Twins recently switch back to their old GM whom typically got it right? I think they see something in Escobar. Also, I don't know much about Hernandez, but his numbers look pretty good. Why is he considered so expendable. I like the Liriano move, but I don't think we robbed the Twins blind. Liriano is a free agent at the end of the year, we are paying $2M remaining on his salary, and his numbers are not that impressive this year, although, he has been better as of late.

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