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Rosenthal: Tanaka to Yankees


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QUOTE (Knuckles @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 04:59 AM)
Im intrigued. If Jerry is out there, means somethign is going on. What's the scouting report on this guy? Is he next Daisuke or next Darvish ?

 

I think the best, most realistic comps for high/low is: prime Dan Haren or pre-big season Ryan Dempster

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Hillbilly talk:

 

Jerry hates the Cubs, a few days in Beverly Hills in the dead of winter might be a nice excuse to try and drive up the price Theo has to pay. I'm not sure why the Cubs aren't the major favorite to land Tanaka. They have been waiting to pay for something that made sense for them, and a 25 year old pitcher definitely fits the bill. I think he also makes sense for the White Sox and about 20 other teams but I don't see Theo letting him go unless he just doesn't love something he sees in Masahiro.

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QUOTE (Real @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 05:19 AM)
[uPDATE @ 2:58pm]

 

According to a tweet by the San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea, Tanaka's top three cities are Los Angeles, New York, and Boston.

I will guarantee that information didn't come out of Tanaka's camp. He might sign with one of those teams but his agent is far too smart to have something like that get out there. He already has asked each team for quiet negotiations.

 

It seems like a made for ESPN tweet. Red Sox, Yankees and their new darlings since they opened studios on the West Coast, Dodgers.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 11:54 PM)
That he will not cost a draft pick drives his price UP, not down. There are going to be pitchers available next year that won't cost picks. He's getting 3 years at the absolute bare minimum.

 

Frankly, the guy I am watching is Homer Bailey. He's a free agent set for a huge pay day after this year, but the Sox have loved him forever. Jocketty has said he's unsure if the Reds will re-sign him. Some of that is undoubtedly GM speak for "We don't need him, but if he brings his price down we'll sign him." Still, it doesn't build a good relationship, and Bailey could easily fetch $15-18 mill over a 5 year deal.

 

There's absolutely no smoke, but I could see a Freddy Garcia situation here. Trade for the guy, sign him to, say, 4/$66 with a mutual option for the 5th year for $22 mill. This is a guy that IS still getting better.

 

Frankly, I think theres a better chance of that happening than Garza. I put Bailey at like 0.04% chance of happening, while I put Garza at 0.001.

I have always liked Homer Bailey. Soxtalk was crazy about him in 2009. What are his current #s? Next year does seem to be the year for FA pitching. I still would like us to bring in one more dude this year too. Hell, I would not be opposed to signing a veteran to a low cost one/two year deal with the hope that we can flip him for prospects if he succeeds in the first half. If this is a year to mature and progress as an organization, it will also be wise to obtain just a few more trading chips. Who do you think will be on the trading block come July? Alexei, Dunn, Beckham? Anyone else?

Edited by GreatScott82
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QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:12 AM)
There are serious doubts about how much money the Cubs can spend -- they have very few future salary commitments, but adding a $20M/year guy will make things real tight over there

The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:33 AM)
The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans.

 

Eh, I don't know. In all honesty, from everything I've read and heard on the radio, the Ricketts really seem like a family who took a chance on their favorite franchise being available and hopping at the chance to buy them, not realizing how much overhead goes into running the franchise and all the improvements the Cubs needed. Theo and Jed have wanted to add high priced FA's to mix in with their young prospects. Tom seems to think though, that Theo is like Friedman and can simply just fill the team with prospects.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 08:33 AM)
The Cubs should have plenty of room for Tanaka. This is a team that was rocking $140M+ payrolls a few years ago and still has been over $100M under the Ricketts family despite a big chunk of revenue being used to pay off their debt. On top of that, they just got $25M in extra national TV deal money. Given that they only have $32M in payroll committments for 2015, there is no doubt in my mind they could easily fit Tanaka in their long-term plans.

 

They're also negotiating their WGN TV deal, they have more than enough money. The Sox chance lies in how creative they are willing to be. Tons of money up front with a 3-4 year player out and being competitive over a 6-7 year offer. It's a longshot still.

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So, prior to today, the Yankees would have been $0.2 million over the luxury tax when they completed Roberts's deal.

Left-hander Matt Thornton completed his $7 million, two-year contract with the New York Yankees, who cut outfielder Vernon Wells.

 

Thornton gets $3.5 million in each of the next two seasons under the deal, which was agreed to Dec. 17 and announced Friday. His contract raises the Yankees' luxury tax payroll for next season to $175.7 million for 13 signed players.

 

Including a pending $2 million, one-year deal for second baseman Brian Roberts and an estimated $11.5 million per team for benefits, New York's tax payroll is at $189.2 million — above the $189 million tax threshold for the upcoming season.

 

However, Alex Rodriguez's $27.5 million luxury-tax salary would disappear if his 211-game suspension is upheld by an arbitrator.

The Yankees appear to have $27.3 million to spend this year without hitting the luxury tax level.
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QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 09:56 AM)
Eh, I don't know. In all honesty, from everything I've read and heard on the radio, the Ricketts really seem like a family who took a chance on their favorite franchise being available and hopping at the chance to buy them, not realizing how much overhead goes into running the franchise and all the improvements the Cubs needed. Theo and Jed have wanted to add high priced FA's to mix in with their young prospects. Tom seems to think though, that Theo is like Friedman and can simply just fill the team with prospects.

This is true, which is why the Cubs' payroll have gone from the $140Ms to the low $100Ms. On top of that, let's not forget that the Cubs have spent big dollars on the draft and in Latin America. I'm not arguing that Theo & Jed thought they'd have more resources to work with, but the Cubs don't have a lot of long-term salary commitments. There's really no debate here because they've had $100M payrolls under the Ricketts ownership and $32M committed for 2015 right now. They can easly fit Tanaka if they want him.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 12:00 PM)
This is true, which is why the Cubs' payroll have gone from the $140Ms to the low $100Ms. On top of that, let's not forget that the Cubs have spent big dollars on the draft and in Latin America. I'm not arguing that Theo & Jed thought they'd have more resources to work with, but the Cubs don't have a lot of long-term salary commitments. There's really no debate here because they've had $100M payrolls under the Ricketts ownership and $32M committed for 2015 right now. They can easly fit Tanaka if they want him.

The link in the other thread has the Cubs opening day payroll being at $78 million this year.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 10, 2014 -> 09:37 PM)
Intriguing.

 

The more I read and hear, the more I think the Sox have a legit shot at him.

I wonder how big of a check Arte Moreno will write given his limitations. If Yanks really aren't going to go crazy Sox could actually have a chance. I always figured Dodgers would go crazy. I still think Cubs would too, especially in this case, since everyone should have a pretty good idea what other teams are bidding. It isn't like its a blind bid. I'd think if the Cubs hear the Sox are the leaders by $5M or whatever it might be, they'd blow that offer up and come in higher (unless Epstein really is tied up). Hopefully Tanaka is secretly best friends with Shingo and Shingo tells him go to the White Sox!!!

 

PS: I still don't know if it is a good idea to give the type of money being talked about but s***, as a fan, I'm not going to lie, it would make this probably the most exciting off-season in White Sox history. Whether it works or not, who knows. You got to like the fact that you don't have to use prospects / lose draft picks. Also, we seem to have a lot of cost controlled guys lined up which would allow the club to have a few guys signed to higher priced deals (and this gets a guy who at least over that long term window, should be in his prime).

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 11:03 AM)
The link in the other thread has the Cubs opening day payroll being at $78 million this year.

That's their projected payroll right now assuming no Tanaka and that would be like a 22% decrease in payroll from 2013. I'm extremely confident that Theo could bump that number up to $100M for the right player (i.e. Tanaka). He's just not going to spend money to simply spend money like he did with Edwin Jackson. He's only looking at impact guys that can fit their time-table, which is at least another two years out before they'll be competitive IMO. Given that Tanaka is 25 years old, he can be part of the long-term core and is probably worth investing in now. Not a lot of free agents fit that bill this year, which is why Theo hasn't spending the money he does have available.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 10:03 AM)
They're also negotiating their WGN TV deal, they have more than enough money. The Sox chance lies in how creative they are willing to be. Tons of money up front with a 3-4 year player out and being competitive over a 6-7 year offer. It's a longshot still.

Yup, pretty much agree with everything you say here. The Sox are likely on the outside looking in on Tanaka, so they'll need to do something creative to have any chance to get a deal done. While I think it's a huge long-shot, the Jose Abreu deal was pretty creative (opt-out to arbitration after year 3) so maybe Hahn will shock the world. Glad they're being active in these discussions though.

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Just because the yanks have the potential to out bid everyone doesn't mean they will land Tanaka. Try to remember its Tanaka's decision as well and Choo proved a month ago that not everyone can be bought by they yanks. Same can be said for they cubs, they MIGHT have the money and MIGHT make the highest offer but Tanaka can CHOOSE to accept another teams offer and not necessarily the most lucrative.

 

Outside of the cubs and yanks there are teams that are going to offer a lot of money so Tanaka's decision won't be about money alone.

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QUOTE (Real @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 05:19 AM)
[uPDATE @ 2:58pm]

 

According to a tweet by the San Francisco Chronicle's John Shea, Tanaka's top three cities are Los Angeles, New York, and Boston.

Really went out on a limb there huh?

 

Think carefully, why would anyone from his side put out this info? It would lower the price tag and the interest level. Aka-its bulls***.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 01:10 PM)
Texas has vastly different tax rates than New York. Though the rumored figure was bigger in New York, Choo will earn more money in Texas than he would have if he accepted the offer (if there was such an offer) the Yankees supposedly extended.

Very true and shows that the highest bidder doesn't always win. Choo also said he really wanted to play in Texas. Its more than just money involved here. Tanaka might want to play on the west coast to be closer to family in Japan, he might want to pay for a contender or a team that's at least close, he might not want to play in the big media market because they are like vultures waiting for you to f*** up, he might not want to play in a division like the ALE with Boston, NY, the Rays, Jay and Orioles all expected to compete therefore making his decision tougher if he wants to play for a contender.

 

Point is there's much more to his decision than just money. Its just the media has convinced the typical american that it is only about money and were not talking about a typical american here. Let's say the cubs offered 5 years @ 20m annually but Seattle offered 5 years 18m annually. Tanaka might think that 2m annually is no big loss because for 1- this is still far more money than he's used to making, 2- Seattle is closer to Japan , 3- Seattle gives him a chance to play with a competitor which the cubs won't be even with Tanaka.

 

Money is just one of many variables in the equation when were talking about a Japanese ball player signing a contract far from his homeland.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 11, 2014 -> 10:56 AM)
So, prior to today, the Yankees would have been $0.2 million over the luxury tax when they completed Roberts's deal.

The Yankees appear to have $27.3 million to spend this year without hitting the luxury tax level.

So does that include the $20MM posting fee?

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