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Agree the signability issues are overblown. He will sign. But it still sucks that he's a Boras client. He will take forever to sign, delaying what should be a rapid ascent to the majors. We also want a superstar with our pick (who doesn't?) And it sucks to know we aren't getting a second contract with the guy unless he dumps his agent. But yeah that's ridiculously far down the line to worry about. Hope we draft him if he's there.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 12:31 PM)
Agree the signability issues are overblown. He will sign. But it still sucks that he's a Boras client. He will take forever to sign, delaying what should be a rapid ascent to the majors. We also want a superstar with our pick (who doesn't?) And it sucks to know we aren't getting a second contract with the guy unless he dumps his agent. But yeah that's ridiculously far down the line to worry about. Hope we draft him if he's there.

 

Seeing the route that Appel took, I don't think you can fairly make that assumption with what we know about this situation.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 12:41 PM)
Appel fell down to 8. Not comparable to our pick.

 

The change in dollars that can paid to him is drastic enough that if he wants 1-1 money, he can't get it from us without giving up basically the rest of our draft, sans a couple of picks over 100k.

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He's looking at an underslot money as a senior even if he's number 1. He'll be over slot no matter what this year. He's not going to risk going back where has to be the number one pick to profit over what is maybe a million dollars. Appel's value improved by like 60 percent. That's not happening here.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 23, 2014 -> 12:34 PM)
Seeing the route that Appel took, I don't think you can fairly make that assumption with what we know about this situation.

 

Bingo.

 

And that's why the signability issue is NOT overblown. Because with Boras (Appel, Bobby Seay, Jeff Weaver), the likelihood of shenanigans in the original signing process is exponentially higher than with any other agent. Given the rarity of a 1-3 pick for this franchise, I don't believe the Hahn/Reinsdorf braintrust will risk drafting a Boras guy UNLESS he's clearly THE guy. As good as Rodon is and MIGHT be, there are many who have concerns about him beyond any Boras-factor, mostly centering around over-reliance on his slider and whether his overall repertoire is "all that" if the slider isn't a part of the equation.

 

Then, there's that "second contract" thing. The Boras approach of virtually always going to the open market couldn't be more opposite from the Sox business plan. Again, I think this raises an enormous red flag about the player, UNLESS he's far and away THE guy. And I don't think the Sox believe he is.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally, I would be shocked if Miami doesn't select Rodon if Houston passes on him.

 

My feel is that the Sox dream draft is Rodon and Kolek off the board at 1-1 and 1-2 (in no particular order). For different reasons, I don't think the Sox want either one of these guys. If that's the case, then Rodon/Kolek being gone give them the FIRST pick in the draft (subjectively speaking).

 

We're not going to be here often (if at all) during Hahn's tenure. I sure hope we get it right.

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QUOTE (CyAcosta41 @ May 23, 2014 -> 12:57 PM)
Bingo.

 

And that's why the signability issue is NOT overblown. Because with Boras (Appel, Bobby Seay, Jeff Weaver), the likelihood of shenanigans in the original signing process is exponentially higher than with any other agent. Given the rarity of a 1-3 pick for this franchise, I don't believe the Hahn/Reinsdorf braintrust will risk drafting a Boras guy UNLESS he's clearly THE guy. As good as Rodon is and MIGHT be, there are many who have concerns about him beyond any Boras-factor, mostly centering around over-reliance on his slider and whether his overall repertoire is "all that" if the slider isn't a part of the equation.

 

Then, there's that "second contract" thing. The Boras approach of virtually always going to the open market couldn't be more opposite from the Sox business plan. Again, I think this raises an enormous red flag about the player, UNLESS he's far and away THE guy. And I don't think the Sox believe he is.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally, I would be shocked if Miami doesn't select Rodon if Houston passes on him.

 

My feel is that the Sox dream draft is Rodon and Kolek off the board at 1-1 and 1-2 (in no particular order). For different reasons, I don't think the Sox want either one of these guys. If that's the case, then Rodon/Kolek being gone give them the FIRST pick in the draft (subjectively speaking).

 

We're not going to be here often (if at all) during Hahn's tenure. I sure hope we get it right.

 

Again, none of those guys are comparable to Rodon getting drafted at 3 (assuming you meant Jered which was the biggest fiasco ever but still not comparable). Boras will pull shenanigans and probably not sign until the last minute, but he's not risking his client who has already lost mph on his pitches back to school on so little monetary improvement when he's the 3rd pick already.

 

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Mark Appel signed for $6.35 million as the #1 pick last year. 18% BELOW SLOT, and below the 2 previous #1 picks. He alledged turned down Houston's offer of $6 million the year before so the Astros moved on.

 

I find it hard to believe Rodon would risk what he would be risking to not sign right around slot at #3.

 

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 01:07 PM)
Again, none of those guys are comparable to Rodon getting drafted at 3 (assuming you meant Jered which was the biggest fiasco ever but still not comparable). Boras will pull shenanigans and probably not sign until the last minute, but he's not risking his client who has already lost mph on his pitches back to school on so little monetary improvement when he's the 3rd pick already.

Agree. If the Sox get him at 3, Boras will try to get more money of course, but having Rodon not sign from this draft at all does a lot more bad than good for his client. There is a lot of risk there for the player. I'm not overly concerned with the signability thing.

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 01:07 PM)
Again, none of those guys are comparable to Rodon getting drafted at 3 (assuming you meant Jered which was the biggest fiasco ever but still not comparable). Boras will pull shenanigans and probably not sign until the last minute, but he's not risking his client who has already lost mph on his pitches back to school on so little monetary improvement when he's the 3rd pick already.

 

He risks his clients all of the time. Many times he loses, so that shows he isn't afraid to go down a dangerous road.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 23, 2014 -> 01:07 PM)
Again, none of those guys are comparable to Rodon getting drafted at 3 (assuming you meant Jered which was the biggest fiasco ever but still not comparable). Boras will pull shenanigans and probably not sign until the last minute, but he's not risking his client who has already lost mph on his pitches back to school on so little monetary improvement when he's the 3rd pick already.

 

No I meant Jeff Weaver. The Sox had that 5-6 year period when they were constantly getting bit in the butt by Boras -- not signing draft picks Jeff Weaver, Bobby Seay, Bobby Hill; getting obviously used for leverage (in a more extreme way than usual) on the A. Rod to the Rangers FA deal.

 

I've never said (nor do I think) that the Sox will simply avoid all Boras clients. Period. But knowing my Sox history, plus knowing more than a little bit about Reinsdorf the businessman (from my own contacts in the commercial real estate world), I peg him squarely in the "fool me once (or four or more times), shame on you ... fool me again, shame on me" camp.

 

It's my personal belief that a Boras-connection will always work as a tie-breaker against a given player. Tie-breakers wouldn't be needed if Rodon were clearly lapping the pack. However, plenty of people have him falling back to the pack. And, therefore, why take the risk with Scottie-boy (who puts 2-3 of his players in bad situations each and every year).

 

That said, I'm not all that concerned about Rodon and initial signability. Rodon and Boras would both have to be completely goofy to expose Rodon to that level of risk. In this year's draft, I'm mostly concerned about the certainty that Rodon (if he's the level of success that we'd hope he is) would be a one and done contract guy. Is that a long way away? Sure. But you'd be drafting your highest profile first rounder in years knowing what's coming. You ONLY do that if you think the player is significantly better than your other options. As good as he is, it's difficult to say that he's THAT.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 23, 2014 -> 01:08 PM)
Mark Appel signed for $6.35 million as the #1 pick last year. 18% BELOW SLOT, and below the 2 previous #1 picks. He alledged turned down Houston's offer of $6 million the year before so the Astros moved on.

 

I find it hard to believe Rodon would risk what he would be risking to not sign right around slot at #3.

 

It was the Pirates initially, but yes, this is exactly right. It'd be absolutely insane for Boras to not have his client sign at the #3 pick value or maybe even a little above slot.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 23, 2014 -> 03:52 PM)
It was the Pirates initially, but yes, this is exactly right. It'd be absolutely insane for Boras to not have his client sign at the #3 pick value or maybe even a little above slot.

The Pirates took him but the Astros would have taken him if he would have taken $6 million.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 23, 2014 -> 04:50 PM)
The draft has changed drastically since the Sox were having battles with Boras before. The draftees have so, SO much less leverage than they used to have.

 

This. It's a different draft era.

 

Rodon either goes back to school and runs the possibility of slipping past next years #3 pick and where he CAN'T get the money he's looking for.

 

He can get pretty good money at #3. He can't make it up next year if he slips and this year has shown he can slip.

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