Alexei

[lasttriptotulsa]

Quick bottom line take on Ramirez.

 

If you think the Sox will contend next year, maybe you sign him and hope for the best.

 

If not, you don't. Why sign him and take away playing time for youngsters in order to win 75 games?

 

Personally, I don't think Kenny is going anywhere. Robin isn't going anywhere. This team has gaping holes to fill at catcher, third base, DH and they are going to need another starting pitcher (Shark is gone). They are going to have to do this with less money since a lot of folks who bought season tickets this off season aren't coming back.

 

JR is also still going to be "heavily involved" (Hahn's words from yesterday) is trying to fix this as well.

 

I don't think the Sox are going to contend next season either...so why waste money on Ramirez?

 

Mark

 

Win 75 games? The team this year is on pace to win 78 despite several players having their worst season of their careers. What reasons do you think there are for a possible regression? The young players (Sanchez, Saladino, Garcia, Thompson) will have more experience and should improve. Abreu, Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Cabrera, Danks, Flowers and Ramirez are going to give you roughly the same performance if not better. The likelihood of LaRoche being as bad isn't good. I don't think Erik Johnson will have any trouble being as good if not better than Samardzija this year and the bullpen should be roughly the same. That's if they make zero moves which we all know is not going to happen. This team will ABSOLUTELY plan on competing next year.

 

[Quin]

For what it's worth, it's a shame Alexei never got a Gold Glove early in his career - specifically 2010 when Jeter got it.

[ChiSox59]

These post all star game numbers are what is called in the trade a "salary drive" nothing more. Personally I don't think the Sox are going anywhere next year without massive changes to the front office / manager / coaching staff. That's not going to happen.

 

So...why waste 10 million on a player who is as inconsistent as they come, will be 34, can't hit in cold weather, is a mental midget and loses concentration at the drop of a hat?

 

Alexei showed much promise in 2008 but for the most part, like the entire team, organization has been a disappointment.

 

Mark

 

This post is a disappointment.

 

Alexei's option will be picked up next year. $10M it today's game isn't all that much, and Alexei will be worth the price tag. He is still a very good player, and considering the other FA options, the option should be picked up.

 

I wouldn't hate going with internal options at SS next year if the Sox are virtually punting the season, but with the pitching staff and the investments made last offseason, I find it very hard to believe that will happen.

[Hatchetman]

How do you come up with "very good player?" What stats back that up? As I noted above 23rd of 24 in WAR. He may be worth $10MM to the Sox because they have no one else, but he is not good.

[3GamesToLove]

Is he currently a very good player? No. But as a whole, after just one down year, would you write him off entirely? In that sense I'm still willing to call him a good player.

[Hatchetman]

His current offensive production is right in line with 2012 and 2013. 2014 looks like the aberration.

[southsider2k5]

For what it's worth, it's a shame Alexei never got a Gold Glove early in his career - specifically 2010 when Jeter got it.

 

Especially because he really was a gold glove SS at his peak, even if he didn't get the hardware to show for it.

[Eminor3rd]

How do you come up with "very good player?" What stats back that up? As I noted above 23rd of 24 in WAR. He may be worth $10MM to the Sox because they have no one else, but he is not good.

 

He essentially had a very bad first half. He was a three-win player as recently as last year. We can admit that he's declining without insisting that he isn't still a useful player, and especially so when the best candidates to replace him are utilitymen.

[BamaDoc]

I would offer him two years at 14 total. He would bridge to another shortstop. Anderson wouldn't be rushed, he likely needs 1 plus years.

[southsideirish71]

He will be 34 year old next year. The Sox typically hold on to players a year or two too long. This smells of that. Let him go and bridge to Anderson.

[southsider2k5]

I would offer him two years at 14 total. He would bridge to another shortstop. Anderson wouldn't be rushed, he likely needs 1 plus years.

 

I would rather give him the one year at $10 million, versus a discounted 2 year deal.

[Eminor3rd]

I would rather give him the one year at $10 million, versus a discounted 2 year deal.

 

Same. If he bounces back, we're either contending or he's trade bait, with some outside chance of him raking enough to be worth a QO. It's his last year with us.

[he gone.]

That doesn't even mean anything. The argument is that he's not a good enough hitter to play third base. He is an okay hitter for a shortstop; he is a bad hitter for a third baseman. No spreadsheet necessary, it isn't that complicated.

 

I've learned in my time posting on this board regardless of what I say ShySocks, you will always disagree with it. You want stats? I'll give you stats. I believe I've made my point clear, and I've explained it with stats and clear reasoning, but if you'd like more, I'll do it.

 

This one is actually pretty easy to explain. They both started their MLB careers at 26 years old. In that time Freese has played 697 games, Alexei has played 1205. Why is this stat important? He is more reliable -- by almost double. Next year when Freese gets injured and a team has to go pick up a Connor Gilaspie or play a Matt Davidson or Mike Olt at 3B, that would hurt the overall stats and production of that position.

 

For Production? They have struck out exactly the same amount times. Cant make that up. Stats dont lie. 578 times. Alexei in 4910 AB's. Freese in 2645 AB's. 221 Doubles for Alexei. 127 for Freese. 108HR to 65. 534 RBI to 338. 234 BB to 214BB. This is where playing more games helps! Backups are backups for a reason, when you are hurt you can't produce, and the player who does take your position generally can't put up the numbers like the starter.

 

.274 BA for Alexei to .276 for Freese (Wooooo!!! A stat in your favor) OPS of .759 to .711 in favor of Freese. Freese is going to be 33, Alexei 34. Neither are young. 135 SB for Alexei, 8 for Freese. 121 Errors for Alexie at SS in 1081 games versus 63 errors in 638 games. Essentially 1 every 10 games for each, but Alexei playing a tougher position.

 

What other stats do you want me to put out there? I'm taking Alexei for $10mm over Freese for $7mm plus $1mm buyout for Alexei.

 

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

I would offer him two years at 14 total. He would bridge to another shortstop. Anderson wouldn't be rushed, he likely needs 1 plus years.

 

 

I would rather give him the one year at $10 million, versus a discounted 2 year deal.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to them signer to a lesser deal such as the 2/14 mentioned, but the second year would have to be an team option. There's no way I'm guaranteeing him 2 more years. I think Anderson will be ready by 2017 at the latest. I think he could probably hold his own next year if need be (at least offensively).

[ChiSox59]

How do you come up with "very good player?" What stats back that up? As I noted above 23rd of 24 in WAR. He may be worth $10MM to the Sox because they have no one else, but he is not good.

 

Ok, "very" may have been a stretch. But I still like Alexei. I wouldn't argue if they declined the option and went with an internal option, but nothing on the FA market is better than Alexei. I bet that if the Sox decline the option, Alexei will come very close to matching that total in AAV, and will likely get a multi-year deal. Since mid June, Alexei has been "very" good, and that is more the ball player that I think he is. The dude is streaky, and likely will continue to be, but as I have already said, if the Sox are trying to compete for the division next year, Alexei gives them the best chance to do that, IMO.

Edited September 9, 2015 by ChiSox59

[SCCWS]

Ok, "very" may have been a stretch. But I still like Alexei. I wouldn't argue if they declined the option and went with an internal option, but nothing on the FA market is better than Alexei. I bet that if the Sox decline the option, Alexei will come very close to matching that total in AAV, and will likely get a multi-year deal. Since mid June, Alexei has been "very" good, and that is more the ball player that I think he is. The dude is streaky, and likely will continue to be, but as I have already said, if the Sox are trying to compete for the division next year, Alexei gives them the best chance to do that, IMO.

 

I also would like to see more of the young players. Could Thompson please play every day so we can see him against more righties. If he is going to really struggle against righties, he may not even 4th outfielder material. But so far he has done pretty good from both sides despite the majority against lefties. When ready Micah needs to play 2nd since Sanchez's average is dropping again. I guess Alexei is going to continue to get most of the reps at SS despite Saladino playing less to see Olt.

[bmags]

why does bwar and fwar vary so greatly with alexei.

[Y2Jimmy0]

why does bwar and fwar vary so greatly with alexei.

 

 

Currently has a bWAR of 1.2 and fWAR of -0.1.

[bmags]

Currently has a bWAR of 1.2 and fWAR of -0.1.

 

Is that not large?

[Balta1701]

why does bwar and fwar vary so greatly with alexei.

This has to be somewhat of the inverse of the pitching setup. bWAR really knocks our pitchers while fWAR is rewarding them because neither of them are fully able to handle things like "pitchers give up hits where fielders aren't playing". Fangraphs rewards strikeouts, B-R rewards giving up fewer hits. B-R is rewarding Alexei for generating more outs while knocking the pitchers for the ball being in the field. Fangraphs is hating on Alexei because they're giving all the credit on defense to the pitchers.

[Thad Bosley]

Quick bottom line take on Ramirez.

 

If you think the Sox will contend next year, maybe you sign him and hope for the best.

 

If not, you don't. Why sign him and take away playing time for youngsters in order to win 75 games?

 

Personally, I don't think Kenny is going anywhere. Robin isn't going anywhere. This team has gaping holes to fill at catcher, third base, DH and they are going to need another starting pitcher (Shark is gone). They are going to have to do this with less money since a lot of folks who bought season tickets this off season aren't coming back.

 

JR is also still going to be "heavily involved" (Hahn's words from yesterday) is trying to fix this as well.

I don't think the Sox are going to contend next season either...so why waste money on Ramirez?

 

Mark

Can he just, like, go away and retire or something? Enough already! He's been "heavily involved" for 35 years now, and look how that's turned out for us. Stay the owner, if he must (although selling the team would be the highly preferred option at this point), but just go away and stop meddling in the team's affairs and decision making. His hands-on involvement over the past three and a half decades has garnered very little in terms of positive results, so it really would be nice to just hear at some point that he's decided to retire and step away from it all. Because until he does it's just going to be more and more and more of the same poor achievement by this franchise. He's had his chance - time for him to let it go!!

[shysocks]

I've learned in my time posting on this board regardless of what I say ShySocks, you will always disagree with it. You want stats? I'll give you stats. I believe I've made my point clear, and I've explained it with stats and clear reasoning, but if you'd like more, I'll do it.

 

This one is actually pretty easy to explain. They both started their MLB careers at 26 years old. In that time Freese has played 697 games, Alexei has played 1205. Why is this stat important? He is more reliable -- by almost double. Next year when Freese gets injured and a team has to go pick up a Connor Gilaspie or play a Matt Davidson or Mike Olt at 3B, that would hurt the overall stats and production of that position.

 

For Production? They have struck out exactly the same amount times. Cant make that up. Stats dont lie. 578 times. Alexei in 4910 AB's. Freese in 2645 AB's. 221 Doubles for Alexei. 127 for Freese. 108HR to 65. 534 RBI to 338. 234 BB to 214BB. This is where playing more games helps! Backups are backups for a reason, when you are hurt you can't produce, and the player who does take your position generally can't put up the numbers like the starter.

 

.274 BA for Alexei to .276 for Freese (Wooooo!!! A stat in your favor) OPS of .759 to .711 in favor of Freese. Freese is going to be 33, Alexei 34. Neither are young. 135 SB for Alexei, 8 for Freese. 121 Errors for Alexie at SS in 1081 games versus 63 errors in 638 games. Essentially 1 every 10 games for each, but Alexei playing a tougher position.

 

What other stats do you want me to put out there? I'm taking Alexei for $10mm over Freese for $7mm plus $1mm buyout for Alexei.

I've had exactly one exchange with you before this one. It ended with you calling me a dumbass. Not exactly indicative of me always disagreeing with you. Either way, if you don't like people disagreeing with you, don't post on a message board.

 

There are a few problems with all of the above. One, you're citing a bunch of numbers that are either unimportant or dependent on playing time. You act like Alexei is twice as reliable. His ability to stay on the field is definitely an asset, but Freese didn't break into the majors and start right away. That's more responsible for the large gap than anything. Since Freese's first full year as a starter, he's played in 513 games to Alexei's 607. You act like Alexei's 108 homers to 65 are an advantage when they're mostly the result of that initial playing time gap.

 

Batting average is overrated. You can talk about "spreadsheets blah blah blah" all you want, but an offense with a good OBP and slugging - areas where Freese is decidedly better than Alexei - is more likely to score runs than one with a good batting average. RBI's are dumb and I'm sure you've heard the reasons why by now. Stolen bases and strikeouts just don't matter in today's baseball. Sort the teams by SB and K's and look at how randomly their runs scored jump around. Errors? Surely you know they're an inadequate way of measuring defense.

 

Two, you're ignoring home parks. Ramirez has hit a homer once every 45.5 plate appearances to Freese's 40.7. Not that big a deal, but this difference is made more notable by the fact that Freese has played in stadiums that suppress home run power while Alexei has played in one that enhances it. Same goes for Freese's advantage in OPS, one that you glossed over up there but is easily the most important stat mentioned. Check out their home road splits.

 

Three, you're citing career stats. I hardly care what somebody did five years ago. It's almost irrelevant. Freese hit like a bona fide stud for a little while, but that hitter is gone.

 

In his place is a hitter who is still better than Alexei Ramirez. Last three years - that cutoff is a favor to you because it leaves out Freese's best season - Freese has hit .258/.326/.389 to Ramirez' .272/.302/.385. Alexei's key advantages are his offense relative to his position, an advantage you would be eliminating by pushing him to third, and his defensive ability, which is eroding. If I'm paying them the same amount to play third base next year, I am absolutely taking Freese. If you want to continue to argue and talk about RBI's, fine, but know that I don't care.

[Lip Man 1]

Win 75 games? The team this year is on pace to win 78 despite several players having their worst season of their careers. What reasons do you think there are for a possible regression? The young players (Sanchez, Saladino, Garcia, Thompson) will have more experience and should improve. Abreu, Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Cabrera, Danks, Flowers and Ramirez are going to give you roughly the same performance if not better. The likelihood of LaRoche being as bad isn't good. I don't think Erik Johnson will have any trouble being as good if not better than Samardzija this year and the bullpen should be roughly the same. That's if they make zero moves which we all know is not going to happen. This team will ABSOLUTELY plan on competing next year.

 

Briefly since I have to get to a radio show (I'm a co-host)

 

Sox have little power, are bad defensively, bad at base running, baseball stupid regarding fundamentals, will not go to a manager who can in essence 'crack the whip' and maybe help players get better. They have black holes at catcher, DH, third base. Will need another starting pitcher with Shark leaving. RF can't seem to stay healthy. Middle infield is still young and learning (assuming Ramirez is gone).

 

The free agent market is poor this off season, if they trade a pitcher they weaken that position (many are advocating they trade Q), will probably have less money to work with since I expect many season ticket holders not to renew.

 

That's a lot to overcome and with this management / front office I don't think they can.

 

Sorry, that's just my opinion.

 

Mark

Edited September 9, 2015 by Lip Man 1

[3GamesToLove]

Sox have little power, are bad defensively, bad at base running, baseball stupid regarding fundamentals, will not go to a manager who can in essence 'crack the whip' and maybe help players get better. They have black holes at catcher, DH, third base. Will need another starting pitcher with Shark leaving. RF can't seem to stay healthy. Middle infield is still young and learning (assuming Ramirez is gone).

 

Lip, the White Sox are above league average at the catcher position.

[Balta1701]

Lip, the White Sox are above league average at the catcher position.

That was mostly Soto offensively and it seems a lot like the pitchers we're hopefully keeping don't fit very well with him. Plus, Soto's going to get a good raise in FA based on his offensive output this year.

 

Flowers has been worth 0.1 fWAR this year. That's not average, that's "replacement level", aka "below average, what you can pick up off hte scrap heap for minimum salary". Maybe you can say "that's ok the staff likes him", but that kind of performance means you MUST be even better offensively elsewhere to offset it.