FriendlyNorthsider
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Posts posted by FriendlyNorthsider
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For what it’s worth the Cubs were in a 40 man jam and didn’t really want to trade Horn. Hes been electric in spring training this year but would be a bit of a risk to keep over someone like Cuas or Riley Thompson. There was talk of a Keegan Thompson trade but that didn’t materialize. I was looking forward to seeing horn pitch this year.
edit: he also added a sweeper like every other pitcher in the cubs org. He’s probably going to be a 7th inning guy for the Sox this year but was sometimes used as a multi-inning guy in AAA last year. Lots of upside in return for a guy that was lost in the Sox org in Thompson
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The Diamondbacks chose to stick with McCarthy and feel that they can fix Menas fastball. Seems like a nice opportunistic buy for the Sox.
These trades are exactly what I wanted the Sox to do. They should be taking shots on the 25-26 year old players that are boxed out of big league ABs on other teams.
The goal for the 2024 Sox should be to have as many ABs as possible from guys on the 2026 Sox.
As for pitching, that’s another problem for another day. If you don’t think Mena is a guy don’t keep him just because you have a weakness in pitching. I think this might increase the likelihood that the Sox focus on a starter as the building block for the Cease trade
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1 hour ago, South Side Hit Men said:I just don’t think $325M is a smart move even for the Dodgers, whereas if I were a Cubs fan I would be happy with this signing based on the risk reward. If he stays healthy, he will get $15M-$30M more, perhaps up to $50M. That’s where the 5 - 10 Xs comes into play. If the fWAR difference is 1-1.5 per year over the next 2-4 years, the Cubs win out and aren’t stuck, whereas 10 years for a pitching contract rarely if ever is a wise move.
Its the same with the Cease trade. The marginal performance difference between acquiring a similar starter in FA is far better than pissing away 2-4 top prospects. The “savings” from Cease’s combined $20M arb years is far less than the contract savings from the six years X the number of prospects you give away. It’s why smart teams trade for prospects and dumb ones like the Sox have consistently traded them for pitchers in their early to mid 30s. Hoping Getz reverses course on this strategery.
The cubs are paying Smyly $12 to be a swingman so I don’t mind this investment.
As for Cease I think the Sox will get a Kings ransom for him eventually, I just think it won’t be this winter. It’s certainly possible I just think the market isn’t as robust as it will be once the top guys like Montgomery and Snell sign at the very least.
Once we are in season there is only one way to acquire talent and while there will probably be other similar pitchers on the market, Cease will have the advantage of being both affordable and under control for a second year.
The downside of waiting is that Cease could get hurt or underperform. Even if he underperforms look at what Giolito brought in at the deadline. If he’s hurt and it’s not TJ you still get another crack next season. The upside is that he comes back to being the pitcher we know he can be and brings in a top 10-20 prospect (in the mlb) plus at the deadline.
I would roll the dice and wait unless Getz is blown away by an offer.-
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36 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:
Triantos? Pitcher or hitter? Scouting report?
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-triantos/sa3017295/stats?position=2B/3B
hes probably going to be a second baseman at the next level. he was an over slot second rounder in 2021 that has lived up to the pick.
He’s got a very good hit tool and walked as much as he struck out (10% each) in high A as a 20 year old. He finished the year in AA and is a bit of a controversial prospect. Most everyone thinks the hit tool will play but some people think there is some power to be had once he matures and when he adjusts his approach to be a bit more aggressive.
Triantos will be blocked by Hoerner and Matt Shaw and may be expendable. He is not a centerpiece for a cease trade but would be in that next tier.
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1 hour ago, WestEddy said:
There weren't strong rumors of Cubs interest. More local reporters surmising that the Cubs were a good fit for Cease. The Yankees missing out on Imanaga ups the stakes for the Yanks if they miss out on Monty, Snell and Cease.
I don’t think it makes a ton of sense for the cubs to go after Cease because I’m not entirely sure the cubs will be good during the duration of his contract. At this point I think it’s pretty dead in the water unless the cubs are willing to move Horton or the sox are interested in taking a quantity type of deal.
if the Cubs take PCA and Horton off the table I think there could be a suitable package made up of a few of the other guys towards the top. Something with a combination of Wicks, Brown, Triantos, Morel, Mervis, Assad could be interesting.
Morel has a cannon but he may be a decent fit at second based on his inconsistency with accuracy. Mervis would be largely blocked at first by Vaughn but if they feel they can get him consistent DH at bats they’re a big power upside.
Assad could be interesting for the Sox. He was very solid last year and might find himself the odd man out on the roster if they were to trade for Cease.
I could also see Wesneski as a trade fit. Personally I think he will make a nasty reliever for the cubs next year and I would keep him but there is some upside in giving him another run as a starter.
As a Cubs fan I would not like a move like this, but I can’t deny the fit is there for both teams.
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1 hour ago, fathom said:
Now all their idiot fans will shut up. They will still load up the next few weeks.
I’m a cubs fan but i wholeheartedly agree. The cubs attract a lot more casual fans and the discourse is generally not good most of the time.
The cubs have some interesting decisions ahead of them. Belli makes a ton of sense but has big bust potential and the Cubs also have a possibly CF of the future in PCA that could be up this year. If Belli is pushed to 1B I’m not sure his dollar amount will be justified even if he continues hitting.
I think the Cubs should bring in Hoskins to play first and allow Mervis to DH a bit. I like the idea of bringing in Turner to play third for a year while they see what Morel can do there. The cubs have a pretty solid 3B prospect in BJ Murray Jr that could force his way up by summer.
In general I think it makes some sense to keep some powder dry on the long term deals while this “wave” of PCA, Horton, Wicks, Morel, Murray, and Mervis get big league run. They already let Velazquez go for nothing because he was blocked. At some point you need to see what you have. In the meantime, shore up the bullpen
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I put exactly zero stock into it. This time last year the Sox had zero blue chip guys.
Colson is an easy top 50 prospect in baseball and is probably closer to top 25. Schultz and Ramos are top 100 (conservatively) and Gonzalez will be knocking at the door.
Pallete seems like a solid prospect and Christina Mena is holding is own in AA (the ERA isnt too pretty but 102 ks in 78IP as a 20 year old is).
The system is still way below average but has some good top end talent. This trade deadline should help replenish the farm. I could see going for a Yu Darvish type return for Gio in which the sox grab a few lottery tickets they like rather than some upper minors talent thats more projectable. There are lots of ABs and innings to go around for the Sox and there aren't concerns about prospect logjams (maybe SS but Colson and or Gonzalez may move to 3rd).
I'm optimistic about the direction of the farm in the past two years. Hitting on first rounders goes a long way and this draft draft as a whole has gotten solid reviews. I think the international draft will help the Sox with the struggles of non-Cuban IFA as well
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On 1/23/2023 at 10:01 AM, he gone. said:
For every person that says "no" or "it's not possible" I'd just like them to explain to me Spencer Strider.
Top innings was 51ip in college, did 94ip in the minors, and then converted from long man to starter and was very impactful for the Braves at 131ip. He has two pitches. He throws 95% fastball/slider. Now the slider is one of the best pitches in the MLB...
However, for all naysayers, take your best crack at explaining Strider. To me, there's too many people in this world who are too comfortable saying "can't".
Now, that said, without Hendriks I think it's much tougher.
i think the sox were/are grooming Lopez for the closers role. Because of that they would like to keep him out of the spotlight to get him on a reasonable extension. without hendriks i think they'll now have to lean on crochet and graveman, kelly a lot more to keep lopez out of the closer spot as to not drive up his price. But before that injury I was all on board getting Crochet 80-100ip and letting him rev up into the end of the season when we need him the most.
The points about the contract difference with Strider and good, and if starting is important enough to Crochet, I could see him signing a team-friendly extension to give the Sox some more incentive to potentially have him spend 2023 and even 2024 building up innings and developing a third pitch. Crochet's injuries are going to cost him in Arbitration so maybe there is some wiggle room there.
Strider was a late bloomer (size and talent wise) that had TJ during his sophomore year of college. He changed his arm action and built up his legs, both of which took pressure off of his elbow. When you watch Strider pitch, his 100mph looks effortless, which is crazy for a guy that is 6'0 200.
Compare that to Crochet who has great size (6'6 230lb (not Lynn weight but actual muscle) who has absolutely nasty torque. Between the leg kick, the hips, and the arm action, his delivery is somewhat violent. His entire profile reminds me a lot of Hader or Chapman. Randy Johnson had a similar arm slot and similar violent delivery, but there has never been another of him
Whether he could or should change his mechanics to take stress off of the elbow is another debate. The way he used his hips and his elbow not only create his velocity but a ton of deception. He hides the ball really well which makes him unhittable at times. I'm not sure that a toned down version of Crochet can have as much value as he would have as high-leverage reliever.
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3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:
Dick Allen would know.
A 40 game package was $1732 so you're talking $3000-4000 per seat (depending on location) for the full season and not even sure if parking's included with that.
https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/tickets/season-tickets/full-season-plan
An 81 game plan in the 15th row (Platinum Box is rows 11-25) is $6322 for the season. The second ticket ($6322) plus parking ($1396) puts the total up to $14,040, which is $86 per ticket incl. parking.If you move a few rows back it's $5039 a ticket ($70 per ticket per game) and a few sections down the third base line and its $3836 ($56/ticket per game) a ticket.
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On 12/23/2022 at 10:17 AM, PolishPrince34 said:
The writeup on Kath wasn’t good. Also, Fangraphs are down on how we are developing our younger arms and in the organization.
Sorry I'm late jumping in on this, but this was the biggest surprise on the list to me other than maybe how low Vera was. Kath went from a 40+ to a 35+ based on his performance in A ball in which he was almost two years younger than the competition. The AA experiment was a failure and the strikeouts were horrendous, but thats quite the drop.
In general going from one 45+ and four 45 grade players to a 55, 50, and four 45 grade players is pretty solid. Hopefully Schultz becomes the pitcher this system desperately needs.
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15 hours ago, oldsox said:
It seems like Arraez hit about .600 against us last year.
He was 28 for 81 (.373) with only three strikeouts to six walks against the Sox last year. He was essentially prime Tony Gwynn against the Sox, so good return or not, I'm happy to see him leave.
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25 minutes ago, he gone. said:
well ... two more reasonable options off the board. Brian Anderson and Duvall are gone for the prices of $3.5mm ($2mm in possible incentives) and $7mm.
We're down to basically Naquin & Robbie Grossman as one of the few options I'd accept.
I can see the Sox signing Ben Gamel or Naquin - they've been tied to both previously.
woo hoo.
I would like Grossman personally. He was awful last year, but so was the rest of Detroit's offense. He's a decent defender, a switch hitter, takes walks, and had some pop once upon a time.
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8 minutes ago, fathom said:
He’s absolutely awful on defense
For sure. The Cubs offense is bad enough that he'll probably play some DH against righties and Mervis will play first. I don't think the Dansby Swanson pitch included a photoshopped Eric Hosmer trying to pick one of his throws out of the dirt.
If Mervis doesnt turn into a player the decision to not extend Rizzo looks pretty bad
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On 1/3/2023 at 5:42 PM, southsider2k5 said:
1 year 700K for a guy projected to have a 110 wRC+ is a low risk low reward move. The cubs first base options last year were awful and they need some lefty bats in the lineup. Worst case this puts the Cubs 700K closer to the tax. It's not as if the bottom of the 40-man roster is crawling with talent
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1 hour ago, maxjusttyped said:
Pollock vs LHP: 176 wRC+ .984 OPS
Pollock vs RHP: 65 wRC+ .578 OPS
Continue putting players in position to fail, and these are the outcomes you deserve to get
Pollock had a .902 OPS last year in 283 PAs against RHP. This seems like more of a coaching issue
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Hoyer saying that this was a buyer's market and Hahn saying it was a sellers market is amusing. I have no doubt that the Cubs and Sox had discussions on Happ and/or Contreras. The fit was there for both teams. I think there may have been some fatigue from the fallout from the Kimbrel deal for the Sox (not that it worked out for the Cubs) as well as the Cubs feeling that they didn't want members of the "core" on the Sox.
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5 hours ago, chw42 said:
I don't think any Sox fans would. I like Happ, but with what Colas has done since his AA promotion, he's probably off the table unless the trade is for Reynolds. Happ is a nice player, but I don't think he moves the needle enough to warrant trading Colas.
Agreed. Im a Sox supporter to of course (I’m here) and don’t want Montgomery, Colas, or Vera moved for anyone that isn’t a star.
I love Happ as a player and a personality but he would’ve been a non tender candidate last year if the cubs were close to the tax. Reynolds is a much better version of Happ
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32 minutes ago, DirtySox said:
I don't think there is a Happ thread, but here is Fegan and Sharma's attempt at a Happ trade.
https://theathletic.com/3451738/2022/07/28/white-sox-trade-deadline-deals/?source=emp_shared_article
As a cubs fan, I would go for that in a heartbeat. Colas is legit
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7 hours ago, maxjusttyped said:
Most people on here would hate Gallo even if he came here and hit, but man, I love the idea of buying low on him.
How sweet would it be if he pulled a reverse Adam Dunn
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What a joke. Great managing Tony
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Lance Lynn is hot garbage
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I follow the minors pretty closely and my general thoughts are that the system is somewhat depleted and might be the worst in the league, BUT, there are a few things that have broken right for the Sox this year. By and large, they are the important things too.
The downsides are that there aren't too may exciting prospects knocking on the door of the majors and that the system is very shallow talent wise. Fangraphs, which is not the be-all-end-all but still, has 28 Sox prospects at a 35+ or better. Minnesota has 40, Cleveland has 48, and the Cubs have 49. 35+ is probably a fair cut off for what could be considered a prospect and the Sox are about an entire minor league team short.
This is largely because the Sox drafted guys like Vaughn, Madrigal, and Crochet that were meant to be early contributors to the system. Part of it is from some of the trades last year with guys like Horn and Pilkington for big leaguers. The Sox have also gone for the big fish in IFA (Colas, Cespedes) instead of getting a smattering of 20-100K signees. The drafting hasn't been particularly great either and the sum of that has been a shallow farm system.
The positives are that the important guys in the farm have been performing for the most part.
- Colson Montgomery has a .900 OPS (147 wRC+!) in Low A as a 20 year old. He's 6'4 205 already so the shortstop thing might not happen, but seems like a guy that can crack a Top 100 list soon.
- Wes Kath has a 100 wRC+ in Low A as a 19 year old but has been hitting above average since May 1. He's been striking out too much, but not being overmatched in Low A is a win at this point. if he can build off of a solid May and cut the K rate a bit this season will be a win
- Bryan Ramos came into the year with some hype and has done nothing to curb the momentum. He is in High A and a 123 wRC+ with some pop as a 20 year old. His K-Rate of 16.4%is particularly impressive and he could be getting a taste of AA by the end of the year.
- Colas was a bit of a wild card considering he was out of professional ball since 2019. He's been slightly above league average in A+. but will be a fun follow for the rest of the year as he continues to get his timing back.
- Cespedes has been a mixed bag. The good news is that he has hit for some power this year and I've heard some good things about his defense. The bad news is that he has a 27% K rate to a 2 % BB rate. That does not sound like something that would be welcomed in the Sox lineup.
I havent event gotten around to the pitching, but as you can see there are some rays of hope among the top of the org for hitters. It'll be interesting to see if any of the younger pieces get moved to help the 2022 Sox to compete. It would be a bold move that would really put the heat on Hahn and TLR
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Pretty impressive choke in the 9th for my Cubbies. More than anything I hope that TA's injury is mild enough to allow him to win the batting title (also the division)
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The Sox should consider picking up someone from the Cubs as a depth piece. The Cubs are about to have some serious 40 man issues with Alzolay, Bote, and Heyward coming back and have a lot of bullpen depth. Someone like Chris Martin would be a good fit. He’s been solid so far and has playoff experience including the WS last year.
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Some Bright Spots
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
It's getting kind of depressing in here so I wanted to highlight some bright spots in the org.
Pitching wise the Sox systems future could be a lot worse than Crochet/Nastrini/Cannon/Shultz/Thorpe/Iriarte/Bush.
Hitting wise Colson is coming around and Quero is a rising prospect. If Gonzalez keeps hitting he'll be grouped with those two before the end of summer. This is far from an exhaustive list of quality propsects the sox have but some guys have had rough starts or are hurt to start the year,