Greetings from an Astros fan.
When I saw a topic called "Keys to beating Houston" I had to reply.
A lot of what y'all are saying is true, but I wanted to correct some misinformation:
--We will be pitching a four man rotation, not three. Count on the Game 4 starter being Brandon Backe. Backe is NOT as dominant as Oswalt/Pettitte/Clemens, but do not underestimate him pitching at home. He's a completely different pitcher at home vs. on the road, with an ERA more than two runs lower. The difference was even more pronounced last year.
Clemens does fatigue earlier and earlier nowadays, but with our pen, that hasn't been a problem. And just because he's tired doesn't mean he's not effective: he'll still shut you out, it'll just be over 5-6 innings instead of 8. I wouldn't assume just because he's 43 and fighting some leg issues that he's an easy win.
Pettitte had a bad outing in Game 1, but that was mainly because due to him taking a line drive of his leg in batting practice (he says it didn't affect him, but anyone watching could see how different his mechanics were.) He was back to normal in Game 5 and pitched great. I'm not worried about Pettitte.
Oswalt is the best pitcher on our staff, and I'm sorely disappointed he won't pitch Game 1 because of Pujols's HR.
--Our pen is very, very good. Our starting rotation gets its share of press, but I think it's even harder to score off our bullpen. Definitely, definitely "worth writing home about." Lidge had 3 bad games in the LCS, which was frankly astonishing, but I'm attributing that to overuse (he pitched multiple innings outings 4 games in a row!), and even 3 bad outings by Lidge only meant 1 BS (The Shot by Pujols). Qualls and Wheeler have been Lights Out as setup guys (and you will certainly never see them in the 5th/6th), and with the exception of Lidge, who we still would trust with a 1 run lead, certainly no one's looked bad. At any rate, don't think you're going to feast on mediocre pitching if a Houston starter only goes 6 innings. And this is a distinct possibility with Roger.
--Don't let Lance Berkman beat you.
That's the absolute, number one thing I would say to a Houston opponent too. Funny thing is, it didn't turn out to be true: he only had 3 RBIs and 6 hits against the Cardinals. Even if he's not hitting HRs though, he has an excellent batting eye: he'll crush any mistake and will walk his ass off. He hits for a high average from both sides, but nearly all of his power is from the left side of the plate. You'll probably use Cotts/Marte to turn him around in an RBI situation late in the game.
Hitting-wise, you need to keep Berkman, Ensberg, and Biggio in check. Ensberg did a pretty good job of that himself in the LCS (he went AWOL against the Cards). Watch out if he brings his bat to Chicago.
Willy Taveras is overrated as the "key to our offense" and all that nonsense. He's fast. That's it. He can't hit.
Jason Lane is either hot or cold, and nothing in between. I sure hope he's hot.
And watch out for Brad Ausmus, our catcher; he stinks offensively, but is somehow hitting very well in the playoffs/post-All-Star Break timespan.
Our offense is not the best, but IMO, too much of that is influenced by the first two months of the season when we were terrible.
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This is going to be a low scoring series. I don't see any team scoring more than 5 or so runs in a game. If they do, they'll almost certainly win.
Best way to beat the Astros: suffocate the offense. Don't allow more than 1 run. Score as much as you can off the starters, because you won't score multitudes of runs against the pen.
My two cents. Looking forward to a good series. I think I'm going to go make a "Keys to beating the White Sox" post and let y'all tell me what you think of it.
