Two-Gun Pete

In my attempt to give ptatc an answer to his question, I framed it as a way to rank needs. I still believe it was wrong to spend lavishly on RPs, while spending a comparative pittance on everyday players and SPs. I think your view to want to get young guys PAs is a reasonable one. I just don't think it wise to have those PAs attached to square-pegging 1B into the OF.

This is a good question. From FANGRAPHS: ...Here’s the basic construction: WAR = [[([(League “FIP” – “FIP”) / Pitcher Specific Runs Per Win] + Replacement Level) * (IP/9)] * Leverage Multiplier for Relievers] + League Correction..."

Again: How many pitches is the limitation of a game? How many PAs is the limitation of a game?

Ok, how many pitches is the limitation for a length of a game? How many PAs is the minimum length of a game? Pitchers participate in only one aspect of a game. Position players participate in more than one aspect of a game. This is why even the elite SP generally produces less WAR than an elite position player. I am not attacking you by any means, but you (and RH) are wrong. SPs > RPs. Position players > RPs. Addressing a marginal issue in the bullpen instead of a starting RFer was just outright wrong. Addressing a marginal issue in the bullpen instead of fortifying the rotation was just outright wrong.

Oh, I agree. But no one can look at the way baseball is measured, and come to the conclusion that RPs > an everyday RFer, in the White Sox's case.

Because there are many more Leury Garcia-level position players than cromulent RPs, their wages are also a product of their commonality. As we all agree, there are fewer humans who can throw well enough to be a MLB RP. But, that a RP in less involved in the outcome of games over the course of a season is why they produce less WAR. Its also why it was absolutely wrong to not replace Adam Eaton/add a RP at the TDL, and why it was a fireable offense for RH to fail to address the RF position.

So, will you argue that RPs > SPs, and/or that RPs > everyday players?

Look, I respect you, and appreciate your expertise with respect to injury. And I understand your want to defend your position. But you are now straining credulity with this view. The unit of measure for baseball is not the number of pitches thrown, its the PA. The former is a theoretically infinite and open-ended question, whereas baseball is measured in a theoretical minimum of 27 or 24 PAs long per game per team. WAR attempts to solve for this, by incorporating run production and run avoidance. A pitcher, ANY pitcher participates solely in run avoidance. A position player participates in run avoidance (by means of defensive chances faced), AND run production by means of his PAs and his appearances on base. You also glommed together "pitchers," be they RPs or SPs as a question of whether or not RH should have gotten one or the other. Its not that I disagree with your position, it's just that you (and more importantly, RH) are wrong on this. SPs > RPs. Everyday players > RPs. The numbers do not lie.

Thank you for agreeing with me. Leury provided as much fWAR as all but 10 RPs, 9 of whom were closers. So yes, the very specialized roles of closers can be as crucial as Robbie Gould hitting a last second kick. But your garden variety RP < a cromulent everyday player, just as a PK < a cromulent NFL starter.

Not at all. Both specialists in football and RPs in baseball are necessary. But they're simply not AS necessary as everyday players, and SPs. FFS, Leury Garcia, whom we're all supposed to hate, provided as much fWAR as every RP, except for 10 RPs last season. Nick Madrigal provided as much fWAR as the 25th-best RP in what, 54 games? Full stop, RPs cannot move the needle as much as everyday players and/or SPs, simply because they do not play as much. Also, you keep referencing the "solid at 7 of 9" thing. Now add in injury histories to the everyday regulars, and tell us how soon we'll see AAAA types in the OF, behind the plate, at SP, and at 2B. This FURTHER underscores the need to address everyday players and SPs, first.

So, by your logic, if you were a GM of a NFL team, you'd spend lavishly on specialists, like PKs, punters, and long-snappers. Because, even though they play fewer plays than your, I dunno, center, their plays can be "more important plays," amirite?

I have this crazy idea that 500 > 60, and 140 > 60. In other words, an everyday player that can play in ~140 games/year in the field, + get you ~500 PA/yr is more valuable than a garden-variety 60 IP reliever. I also believe that a 140 IP SP generally helps you win more than a 60 IP RP. So simply from usage alone, everyday player needs > RPs. Also, SPs needs > RPs. If your club has ANY weaknesses in your everyday lineup or rotation, address them, FIRST. Crazy idea, right?

To be fair to the Braves, they decided that just spending cash is/was better than to trade away an asset for the right to pay Kimbrel. So it isn't "just" Kimbrel’s $16MM salary. It's also them losing a piece NOW, that they could otherwise use later. Seems like there's a lesson in that? I'd think so.

I mean, that should be pretty self-evident that its backwards. We're meant to believe by this FO that some RP who gives you, what, ~60-70 IP > a starter that gives you 140IP? Or, that a RP who gives you ~60-70 IP > an everyday player who gives you ~500-600 PA? Or, that a utility guy who at best gives you ~2-ish fWAR > a starting player who can give you 3 or more fWAR. And it isn't just now. They wanted you to believe that at the last TDL. I mean, how long has RF been a vortex of shit, yet they stupidly added a closer? How long did they allow Mendick'd replacement-level game drag the team down last season before they did anything about it? I've noted this insane addiction to overvaluing RPs for awhile now. This isn't anything new for this FO.

Thanks for this. But, I was told that the super-dooper bullpen would take care of all of this, I'm not worried.

Or 35 year old Josh Harrison either injured or DFA, leading to Mendick at 2B while Leury has to play in the OF.

Good one! God forbid, but then, it'll be Gio, Keuchel, Velasquez, Lopez, and Stiever in the rotation? If that happens, I hope I'll be out of country at that time.

Deal! Even if Conforto is added, he's another guy with a significant injury history. So, I should make peace with Billy Hamilton's return, I guess... I just can't make any promises. I think it'll be a lot of cursing, and a broken phone or two if/when it happens. God forbid.

True. But yeah, Sheets in LF, Leury in CF, and Vaughn in RF. What could go wrong?

Nah, the real fun will be me/my posting when I see that the SOX have re-signed Billy Hamilton. I beg everyone's forgiveness in advance if/when this happens.

Probably true. Why not go: $16/20/24MM, with opt outs? Gets him reasonably paid, gets JR the chance to remain richer, and if he performs well, it gives Boras a chance to go back to FA in a year or two?

So, it could be an OF of Sheets, Leury, and Vaughn if this goes sideways on RH. Nice!

Not "if," but when? I mean Eloy, Robert, and Engel all have injury histories. It doesn't take much to see this as a possibility. I certainly hope not, but does anyone really think these three will come through all of 2022 unscathed by injury?

No.

I think I agree. When RH speaks about generalities, he's usually full of shit. "We want to compete for multiple championships," or "we want left-handed power." But when he speaks about having an interest in a specific top-end player, he's usually honest in the interest. (THINK: Wheeler or Machado; i don't recall any specific comments about Harper.) He just can't ever seem to get it done. WRT Conforto, we've allowed ourselves to expand the comment about wanting LH power to be applied specifically to him. And now, we're relying on "a smirk," or a comment that he's "been in contact with an agent" to convince ourselves that they're specifically interested in Conforto. I also think that any supposed interest being tweeted by "insiders" is mere Boras Corp propaganda, meant to inflate prices on their players. I dont actually think Levine has anything on this, for example. I think our team is done for the offseason. Or, at least I've made peace with this as a probable outcome.