Perfect Vision

The Score asking whether Machado should sit out 2019 rather than sign a team friendly deal with the Sox. Could you imagine if the Cubs were in pursuit of Harper, them tweeting "Should Harper threaten to sit out 2019 if he doesn't get an offer he likes?"

I personally interpret this as Manny's father thinks he signs with the White Sox. From a big picture perspective, the Sox are the team people don't think about as much in this race. Remember also that Gomez personally predicted Manny to the Sox yesterday I think.

The rebuild has failed.

Thanks for posting that paragraph. Very interesting.

Agreed.

Honestly, I don't think much. Perhaps a signal to Boras on how cheap Machado appears to be, and they can just pivot to him if Boras is being unreasonable with his demands.

That's exactly what I'm saying -- that it was likely the Phillies that leaked the $175 mil number, not Lozano or the Sox.

Random thoughts/observations on yesterday's leaks: The leak that kick-started this whole thing -- Passan's 8 yr offer/Gomez 8/250 -- almost certainly came from Lozano/Machado's camp after the Sox floated the idea (not officially, just verbally). That makes sense if Passan's information came directly from Lozano (just 8 yrs without a number), but Gomez's source is a personal connection to Machado (maybe even a close family member). Gomez felt comfortable giving the exact dollar amount because he didn't have to worry about getting his source in trouble under the CBA, which only applies to teams and players/agents. So I think we can trust that Lozano wanted it out there that the Sox offer was for 8 years. The blitzkrieg of 7 year reports that followed would have come from the Sox, obviously, considering who was tweeting those reports. And yet, curiously, none of those guys including Nightengale said $175 million. They all just confirmed a 7 year offer. If the Sox wanted the $175 million number out there, why not just give it to one or more of those guys when the Sox had them confirm the 7 year offer? The $175 million figure came from..........Buster Olney? A guy who presumably has no ties to the White Sox front office. Yes Nightengale came in to verify, but it was Olney that broke the news. Olney cares about his reputation. He's not about to make something up or troll to get the Yankees involved. Someone gave him that information. Could Olney really trust Boras would have that information? No, I don't think so. Boras wouldn't know what information the Sox and Lozano are exchanging. So that leaves the Phillies, who would know if Lozano told them, presumably to get them to make a higher bid. If it's true that this was the Phillies doing, then the relationship between Lozano and the Sox may be just fine (with both being pissed off but not necessarily at each other). Hopefully, then, they are still working towards an amicable deal.

A couple random thoughts/observations: If the Sox have been targeting this free agent class for 2+ years, there is no way they could have known back then that none of the big teams -- Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, Giants, etc. -- were going to be seriously involved in this bidding. They had to have assumed that the winning bid was going to be 9-10 years and $300+ million dollars, and thus seemingly have been prepared to pay that. They wouldn't open with a bid like that, however, but rather something like the reported 7 year deal, and work up from there. The Sox are as surprised as everyone else that no other team has pushed them to go higher. They are ready and willing to go higher, but they are not going to bid against themselves. My guess is Lozano knows that the Sox are prepared to go much higher, and it's driving him absolutely crazy that he can't get more involvement from other teams to push the Sox up. What we saw yesterday was Lozano's frustration finally boiling over. I don't think this stalemate has anything to do with Lozano/Manny not wanting to play for the Sox, but in Lozano knowing he could get more money from the Sox if some other team would just get involved.

So Passan goes on a NY sports radio show, says someone not involved with the Yankees is predicting Machado goes there, and suddenly the Yankees are back in? Yeah ok.

Yes could be a double benefit to Boras. He screws his former partner, and in depressing the final contract for Machado, possibly gets the Machado winner to jump into the bidding for Harper, driving up Harper's price.

I think you've hit the nail on the head with your last 3-4 posts.

Just to build on this. It's been publicly known for a while now that the Sox had a formal 7 year offer on the table. Didn't a national guy tweet this a week ago or so? So the other GMs probably figured that there was an offer of around $200 mil (which too has been tweeted by some of the national guys). And no one came over the top. So would leaking that the offer was actually on the lower-than-expected side of $175 mil get other teams in? I just don't think so. I don't think the gap between the actual and what was expected is great enough that another GM would now come in, where they didn't before. Which leads back to the managing of expectations. It's possible that Lozano now accepts that the floated 8/250 (I too trust Hector Gomez here) is going to be the best offer, and he wants to get the 7/175 out there to create the biggest jump up to the actual contract amount as possible, so as to save face.

Possibly, but if there's truth to the 8/250 offer -- and I believe there is -- then any new inquiring team will quickly learn that they need to offer 250+ to get in the game (and will probably then decline). So Lozano leaking the 7/175 doesn't really help him reel in more teams. Someone mentioned that this might be Lozano trying to manage expectations, assuming the 8/250 is still on the table and that's around what Manny signs for. That helps Lozano save face a bit. I could definitely see that being what's happening.

And yet here we are. It might not seem fair or right, but Manny has no market. The big boys seem to have no interest in him and none of the mid-market teams want to give out $200 million contracts, least of all to someone who is perceived to be a dirty player who doesn't try hard.

I dig this. This is hardball from the Sox. They are showing Lozano how delusional his expectations were. You think your client is worth $300 mil??? Watch us leak these lowish numbers and your phone remain silent. Their read must be that the Phillies want Harper and are not going to top the Sox current offer.

Am I the only one that finds this absolutely hilarious? Tomorrow Jon Heyman will be reporting the Sox offer is actually 7 years, $160 million. This is the Sox front office making a point to Lozano/Manny. You guys think you're worth $325 mil??? Watch us throw out these low ball numbers and still have no other teams jump in. They are trying to humble Lozano and make him face reality.

Lozano is going to do his best to imply to the Sox that their offer is not the best offer or that they need to raise it to get Manny (whether true or not), and Hahn and Jerry must do their best to determine whether they should raise their offer or not. Lozano isn't going to just tell the Sox that the Phillies have quit on Machado; it's going to be up to the Sox to make that determination.

Am I being too cynical in thinking this could be the Phillies trying to misdirect the Sox? Leak to the media that the Phillies are focusing now on those other players to make the Sox think that their offer to Machado is good, when the Phillies have actually just made a larger offer to Machado?

I'll reiterate what others have said -- this has been a frustrating and exhausting process, but if and when Manny signs here, it will be worth it and I think we will all look back on this process with good memories. That holds true whether the signing is today or on February 15th. We won't care how long it took to get him signed when we're enjoying Sox baseball this summer.

Sorry, stopped watching when I saw squats on a smith machine. 2018 makes sense now.......

I think the Sox have shown their hand -- they want Manny. I think the Phillies could go either way and, if push comes to shove, would be content pivoting to Harper. At least more so than the Sox. For that reason, I'm optimistic. I think the Phillies will back down first in the Manny bidding.

But at what point do Lozano and Manny have to face the music that it's not going to happen? They can do and are doing all the usual tactics -- shopping offers, leaking "mystery teams," saying they are holding firm to their demands, etc. -- but there has to be a point where they realize the existing offers aren't going to be raised, no new teams will be jumping in, and nothing is going to change between that point and spring training. Then there's really no reason to delay any further. I don't think we're there yet but I hope we're getting closer.

FWIW it was exactly one week ago - January 8 - that Levine wrote that a Machado decision was expected within a week according to his sources.

There has been so much smoke around the White Sox and Machado over the last 24 hours, you would think that if the Phillies or a mystery team had any inclination to top the Sox offer that they would be doing it very soon. Otherwise, it does seem like this is the end game.