jackie hayes

He would be a lot classier in my book if he had more quickly repudiated the Swift Boat garbage that even McCain, his very public supporter, instantly condemned.

I should put a small caveat on something I said earlier -- if the conditional ballots are VERY strongly Dem, and if Kerry does surprisingly well in the yet uncounted vote, then I guess he has some small chance. The models don't really capture these "conditional votes", after all. But I still think the odds of any change are puny.

If the Dems get 50-50 out of absentee ballots, they're damn lucky. If they have to hang their hat on that, they're screwed. I have to think (especially after seeing Virginia and the Carolinas) that the networks are really being quite careful with projections this year. Ohio would really take some divine inspiration. It's over, go to sleep and get the worst nightmares out of the way -- Bush holds on.

For all the statisticians -- you want to know how big the tailcoats effect is? Exhibit A.

The recounts didn't really surprise anyone too much.

Good post. That is really what Clinton has, personality (and Bush, in a sense). It's depressing how influential that can be.

Assuming this holds up... The Republican party I supported until a year ago has lost any sense of principle. The Republicans have become the party dedicated to big-spending and big deficits, and has no consistent position on its signature moral issues. It is isolationist and ignores science. It has been said that we should all support the President, whoever that is. I will support the fact of Bush's election, but you can't ask me to support these policies that are so fundamentally flawed.

Still seems like a thin line, if any. Honestly, do you think he doesn't know about that option? Do you think that this is new information to anyone? O/w, it smacks of suggestion.

I wasn't exempt. I did not serve, but I signed up and I was willing. (My girlfriend was none too happy about my willingness, either.) I'm probably ineligible now (depending on the details of the draft). But if someone wants to eliminate the draft, or even if someone wants to turn the US socialist (and I would prefer even Bush to a socialist), you don't tell them to leave the country. These are legitimate opinions, that's the whole point of democracy.

So much depends on the models they're using -- I'm not saying Ohio will go Dem, I have absolutely no idea -- but if the missing precincts are strongly Dem, it may be a fair prediction.

I just don't think this is cool. Don't ever tell someone to leave the country for f***ing politics.

I doubt it, Ohio is the razor's edge, but we'll see.

You can throw out all the other states. Everything's pointless except Ohio.

Oh, please... All this draft business is probably bs. But if you think a dem would implement it, you're more conspiratorial than anyone I've ever met.

Fewer troops. Where has Kerry said he would reduce our personnel in Iraq? He said he thought there were too few troops on the ground. Interesting that this post comes up now...

Small point -- I've seen Bob Kerry all over the tv for the last few months, and I've almost never seen a worse spokesman for a campaign. Did the Dems learn nothing from Clinton's popularity?

Yup, Bush is barely losing in Miami-Dade, 54-46. I'm really surprised, given the demographic breakdowns.

I wish I had those models on my computer now. There are so many things I want to check on.

But it depends entirely on which precincts are reporting. No Miami results have been reported yet.

No way you can say that w/o using the models.

He's the proverbial NY Mets of politics. He'll be a riot.

Who would've guessed so many Nazis in Illinois?

Republicans had to worry for a bit about VA, NC, SC. Dems now have to worry about Pennsylvania.

Iowa votes for f***ing ever. C'mon guys, can't those tractors go any faster than that?!

All this excitement, and not one surprise yet tonight.